< "> edit this post http://www.investegate.co.uk/afren-plc-%28afr%29/rns/trading-statement-and-operations-update/201301210700069619
http://www.investegate.co.uk/afren-plc--afr-/rns/2012-full-year-results/201303250700107200A/

In an attempt to cut down the header page,i've transferred some of the older news to Page1 post No.3.

http://www.oil-price.net/index.php?lang=en
http://www.ft.com/home/uk

http://www.investegate.co.uk/Article.aspx?id=201111020700081674R
http://www.investegate.co.uk/Article.aspx?id=201111150700250723S
http://www.investegate.co.uk/Article.aspx?id=201112010705051251T
http://www.investegate.co.uk/Article.aspx?id=201201170700146472V
http://www.investegate.co.uk/Article.aspx?id=201201230701479690V
http://www.moneyam.com/action/news/showArticle?id=4323758
http://www.investegate.co.uk/Article.aspx?id=201204170700164488B
http://www.investegate.co.uk/Article.aspx?id=201205140700212304D
http://www.investegate.co.uk/Article.aspx?id=201205210700407032D
http://www.moneyam.com/action/news/showArticle?id=4430164
http://www.investegate.co.uk/afren-plc-%28afr%29/rns/significant-new-seychelles-3d-seismic-programme/201212120700052973T/
http://www.investegate.co.uk/afren-plc--afr-/rns/2013-half-yearly-results/201308230700063334M/
http://www.investegate.co.uk/afren-plc--afr-/rns/ogo-drilling-and-resources-update/201311190700083404T/
http://www.investegate.co.uk/afren-plc--afr-/rns/trading-statement-and-operations-update/201401280700096280Y/
http://www.investegate.co.uk/afren-plc--afr-/rns/interim-management-statement/201405200700135209H/
http://www.investegate.co.uk/afren-plc--afr-/rns/interim-management-statement/201410300700116483V/
http://www.moneyam.com/action/news/showArticle?id=4942625
http://www.moneyam.com/action/news/showArticle?id=4943375

and i thought i was a cynic!

colin,

Not a fan, but I hold some shares which Ibought at an unpleasant price.

The valuation made by the markets at the moment have little relationship to ultimate values.

They seem to be based more on whim and fancy and the SP are been pushed around by short term speculators.

Unless you are "very smart" the cost of turnover of trading in such markets is costly and at the moment I intend holding Afren for long term gain,

Looking at forecast earnings, I guess 12 mths on, unless there is complete crash in the Eurozone etc. the selling price will be about 180 +

Bur, unfortunately I am often wrong.


Have a look at long term forecasts or guesses.

or sell short if you believe your own post

yes and no, but it should get to previous levels soon.

Which previous levels?

Hi all, am a small holder here from 40p region and very happy how things are shaping
up of late,some holders here may like to take a look at the link below...there will be
some connection with these two companies in the future IMO

http://uk-analyst.com/shop/page-advice/action-advertorial.show/id-130015105

so what's happened to colinspurr to defend his stance?

Afren (LSE: AFR.L - news) 90.2p -4.8 Questor says SELL

Afren had some good news this week after a 45pc subsidiary completed the purchase of some oilfields from Shell (LSE: RDSB.L - news) . However, there are still some concerns that meeting its production guidance of 50,000 boepd by December 31 could be tight.

In July, Afren cut its 2011 average production estimate by 15,000 boepd because of delays at its flagship Ebok field in Nigeria and its shares have been moving lower since then.

Last month, the company said it was confident that it would meet the target, but this implies a substantial increase in output during the last month of the year. This could be a challenge.

Another concern for Questor is the balance sheet. It is carrying a large amount of debt. This means that it needs strong cash flows to service its debt but also to invest in production to try to meet its targets. This is no easy task for the company's well-remunerated management. At the end of the first quarter of the year, debt stood at $518m (331m) compared with its market capitalisation of 952m. Some analysts believe the debt figure could rise to north of $800m by the year end.

Management is working to hit targets and there are interesting prospects across Africa. Afren has even acquired licences in the Kurdistan region of Iraq, but Questor is cautious on oil interests in this region until a proper revenue-sharing agreement is agreed with the central Iraqi government and the Kurdish semi-autonomous region. Progress on this has been slow. Political issues in Nigeria are also far from ideal.

The highest the shares have been tipped is 148p before the production guidance downgrade. Investors who bought in at that price will be sitting on a loss of 39pc, although buyers who got in on the original tip of 58p on July 2, 2009, have made a paper profit of 54pc.

The 2011 price-earnings multiple is 9.1. On balance, Questor thinks the shares are now a sell after this week's bounce.

I think Afren should now consolidate its position and not take on any more debt until they up production.

Interesting comments which to some extent support my own position. I agree with Aldwickk's last post as the management have not performed well in the last 6 months, seem to be dreaming of the future and not concentrating on current production. The share price shows this, but over done due to the world's financial situation. Having started at 38p I am in for the longer term even though I believe the price of oil in 2012 has only one way to go - South. By how much I have no idea. However I believe there is a fair chance the share price will be 120 in December 2012. My reason for this optomistic forecast is the Shell deal which should add to the production. If there is some good news from E Africa and/or Kurdistan then this will be a bonus. If my whole portfolio in 2012 goes up by 30% then I might even go the MoneyAm drinks and stand a round.
Cynic I am not sure what I have to defend. You might note this is only my second post in five years with Moneyam so you will hardly ever hear from me. But I have read many comments from you over the years and should have learnt something as I am one of the worlds worst sellers and cutters. I have a number of long term investments i.e short term investments gone wrong.

what have i missed? ..... what fields do AFR have in EAST africa?

cynic see ALD's post 1774, do try to keep up!

ach so! ..... i dare say i read that but discounted the value of those sites

This is cheap @75p

AFR tends to follow rhe oil price movement which has fallen sharply today,so worth
keeping an eye on the POO.

niceone what is AFR's cost of production that will determine their sp.

Halifax; you should get an idea from the full year results,but they should be releasing
the RNS confirming 50,000bopd which will give a clearwer picture?

http://www.investegate.co.uk/Article.aspx?id=201103290700157844D

This should be higher......50000 barrels......the debt will be paid off quickly with that sort of production....

Starting to creep up......way undervalued should production get close to 50000.....the earnings cashflow would be tremendous !.

That sounds very similar to what they said in this week's Shares Mag!!!

"Tom Sieber
Investors should follow buying by Egbert Imomoh, the non-executive chairman of oil explorer Afren (AFR), since the market is failing to give the company full credit for its producing assets and growth potential. nigerian national Imomoh, one of the founders of the group, bought £230,790 worth of shares earlier this month (15 dec).
Afren expects to exit 2011 with a production rate of around 50,000 barrels of oil equivalent per day. Based on a consensus forecast earnings per share for 2012 of 20p the company trades on a price/earnings ratio (Pe) of just 3.9. we would expect the shares to be re-rated as the £831 million market cap executes on its plan to exploit its potentially substantial assets in Kurdistan, northern Iraq and addresses concerns over its nigerian assets.
Afren announced it had completed the acquisition of the Barda rash and Ain sifni fields, first announced in July, last month (2 nov) and also dealt with funding concerns by unveiling a $200 million lending facility. these announcements were overshadowed by reports, since proven to be false, that its stake in the OMl 26 block had been confiscated by the nigerian state oil company. the firm’s focus should, in any case, shift over the medium term with the newlyacquired fields in Kurdistan estimated to contain a combined 890 million barrels of oil in contingent resources. A phased development is expected to see Afren’s net production from the region reach 125,000 barrels of oil per day by 2017."
Shares says: Buy Afren at 77.6p.