how do you see the dow index going today Dow Jones and S&P commentary: Signal Watch Dr Bob Hard Right Edge Raptor Research Charting by Snoball: Dow Chart S&P Chart Drinks & Break Time at: GD's Famous Tea Room & Watering Hole"

DOW JONES @ LIVECHARTS

Kandrews:
Hello one and all.
My advice is to leave these cold callers alone.
I had a similar experience last month or so back and posted the details on the traders board etc.They had the audacity to send me the contract note saying that i had bought about USD 5200 worth of this so called plant soil company shares which had not even been listed on the Exchange as yet.I asked the guys on the boards and with their advice slung the papaer in the bin and never heard from them again.

rgds
zarif

Dow climbing high atm. Reckon will see 10380 and over today?
My feeling is that it will pop and drop but will have to watch the results out at 8pm.
trade wisely and safely

rgds
zarif

Dow playing in a very tight range after yesterdays gains.10400 needs to be breached decisively and i reckon the next leg 10450 is going to be a tough nut to crack if it gets that far and greenbum does not spook the market with his speeches.
Best to watch the market as it can whiplash with small volumes and this so called Bull can fall into a bear quite suddenly.

rgds
zarif

Good morning,
below is the analysis by Tom Hougard.



My feeling is that the market is in a quarter end mark up phase which is seeing more upside than even the perma bulls could have hoped for. This is caused by the lack of participation from the big Wall Street firms. The evidence is in volume which is running at around 2/3 of the normal average volume. This does of course necessarily have bearish implications. It just means that no one is interested in selling and buyers have to chase prices higher.



Oil prices look toppy as well and may provide the catalyst for higher prices in the market. I could see a relief rally develop on the back of lower energy prices, but I do think that the market is very vulnerable to exogenous factors relating to oil. In other words traders are keeping a close eye on that sell bottom if a piece of undesirable news item rolls over their monitor.



I spoke to a friend of mine last night who trades the SP500 in Chicago. He told me that he will take Thursday off before the Reagan funeral on Friday. His reason was that Thursday is roll-over day from June to September and it often buggers the geometry of the contract. I have today and Thursday as trading lower but if many traders are taking off early we could find a market far more prone to market manipulation. I would therefore only short weakness.



The 1145 area is a huge target for the market. If we were to close above 1145 the market could theoretically move to 1170. I am not a big fan of this and I am in general not a big fan of the market right now. It feels odd to me and looks most suitable to day trading. Keep an eye on 1145 as the market could see a dramatic reversal at this price.



Oil is falling and I am looking at stocks like BP and Exxon Mobil. XOM has failed to trade significantly lower (only dropped about $2) since I issued a short at $44. We are now back around $44. If both BP and XOM trade higher from here, and can get through $44 it targets the all-time high at 47.75 at a minimum.



Tom

Afternoon guys /gals
Are we going to have a value wednesday or a voodo wednesday?
Rallies on low volumes even though bullish lack credibility imho.
nearly got to my 10450 level on the dow yesterday.Lets see what happens today

rgds
zarif

NDX just kissed yesterdays low.

If it breaks it, it is in theory, a swing high short.

Melnibone.

Off for the evening out now.Doing a recording session with the band today.
Closed the dow short in profit and have got Cable long open atm

rgds
zarif

Published: Jun. 10 2004, 07:10 GMT

The DAX falls to 3825 before the new bull market reasserts; FTSE 100 may also fall to 4395 -- new bull market takes off thereafter


Investors had more time to consider Greenspans statement that, if necessary, the Fed was prepared to do what is required to maintain price stability in order to ensure sustainable economic growth.





Stock Market View:


June 9, 2004 - Europe



DEVELOPMENTS TO WATCH TODAY:



- Japanese wholesale prices rose in May for a third straight month, led by gains in oil and commodities costs, reinforcing expectations that deflation might be easing. The corporate goods price index, which tracks goods bought by companies and the cost of electricity and other utilities, rose 1.1 percent from a year earlier, following a 0.2 percent increase in March and a 0.6 percent gain in April, Bank of Japan figures showed in Tokyo. The index rose in March for the first time in 44 months.


- Japans current account surplus rose 23.1% in April, year-on-year. The surplus widened 5.1% from the previous month. The current account balance fell from 1,823.3 trillion in March to 1,582.8 trillion in April, or just north of U.S. $14.3 billion. Meanwhile, the trade surplus rose 25.6%. Exports and imports were both up, 11% and 6.6% respectively. Japans export-led recovery looks set to continue.


- Australia's economy lost the most jobs in 14 months in May, all of them full-time, signaling economic growth is cooling as a housing boom and consumer spending slow. Employment fell 41,100 in May following increases of 121,900 in the previous two months, the Australian Bureau of Statistics said in Sydney. The unemployment rate fell to 5.5 percent, a 23-year low, from 5.6 percent as fewer people looked for work. The Australian dollar extended a decline on expectations a slowing economy will prompt the Reserve Bank of Australia to keep interest rates unchanged as U.S. borrowing costs increase.


- New Zealand central bank Governor Alan Bollard raised interest rates for the third time this year and said further increases this year ``look likely'' as inflation accelerates to a four-year high. Bollard raised the official cash rate, the overnight lending target rate for banks, by a quarter point to 5.75 percent, saying annual inflation may reach 3.3 percent next year, exceeding the bank's 1 percent-to-3 percent target range. Inflation may accelerate as oil surges, commodity prices rise and the New Zealand dollar falls, fanning import prices, the bank said in a statement in Wellington. Demand for housing and construction are also helping boost the economy, which may not slow as much as the bank forecast in March, Bollard said.


- German exports rose the most in 20 months in April, as accelerating global growth led by the U.S. and Asia boosted demand for goods from Europe's biggest economy. Sales abroad, adjusted for seasonal swings, increased 5.2 percent from March, the fastest since August 2002, the Federal Statistics Office in Wiesbaden said. Economists had expected a 0.8 percent gain, the median forecast. In the year, foreign sales surged 15.7 percent. Exports, equivalent to about a third of Germany's gross domestic product, grew at the fastest pace in more than three years in the first quarter, securing a recovery so far restrained by increasing unemployment and stagnant consumer spending.





Equity Market Summary -



Japanese stocks today gained, led by consumer finance companies, after Sumitomo Mitsui Financial Group Inc. said it may buy a stake in Promise Co. The Nikkei 225 Stock Average rose 0.5 percent to 11,505.31 at the 11 a.m. break in Tokyo. The broader Topix index gained 0.2 percent to 1155.24, with consumer finance and insurance companies accounting for two-thirds of its advance. The Morgan Stanley Capital International Asia-Pacific Index, which tracks the performance of more than 900 stocks in the region, fell 0.7 percent to 89.13. South Korea's Kospi index declined 0.9 percent, while Taiwan's Taiex index shed 1.5 percent.

Traders once again had little economic news to consider during the U.S. session on Wednesday. The only release of note was the April wholesale trade report, which showed a solid gain in sales but a surprise contraction in industry inventories. However, the drop in stockpiles should be viewed as a natural pause rather than a deliberate retreat, altering little the industry outlook.

In the absence of major economic news, investors had more time to consider Fed Chairman Alan Greenspans statement yesterday that, if necessary, the Fed was prepared to do what is required to maintain price stability in order to ensure sustainable economic growth. The stock market tone turned bearish; profit-raking ahead of the long week-end also added to the negative bias. The Dow lost 0.6%, the S&P slid nearly 1%, and the Nasdaq shed 1.6%.

The U.S. market's weakness on Wednesday was broad-based, with the bulk of the sectors participating in the retreat... Laggards of note included influential sectors such as software, hardware, semiconductor, networking, disk drive, biotech, banking, broker/dealer, transportation, drug, healthcare, retail, and materials groups.

European bourses largely tread water through to midday Wednesday session but lost ground on a weak Wall Street opening, while in the UK, anticipation of a rate hike, weighed on equities. The continent's major markets are all down on the day. The CAC-40 falling furtherst, down 0.65%, while the DAX and the FTSE-100 both fell around 0.5%.



Equity Technicals:


- DAX Index - the index was lower, injecting life to the short-term scenario of a pullback to ideally 3825 - 3800 before the bullish medium-term view reasserts. However, the caveat remains -- a one day sell-off does not warrant lifting vigilance -- that is, if the DAX goes through 4050, then it is unlikely that we will see this magnitude of a pullback. Nonetheless, the medium-term outlook remains unchanged -- expect a new upwards cycle which should go on and challenge the 4175 top further out, and perhaps go on and focus at a 4500 upside target later in the year. However, if the rally extends above 4,050, then the +pullback scenario+ is probably wrong.


- FTSE 100 Index - the index fell further, which may just develop into a short-term cascade to the 4395 area. . However, the view of a large pullback may still be nullified if the index rallies above 4515. But despite this, continue to make allowances for a +test of the base+ type of corrective decline, the target of which is the area of 4395 - 4380 late in the week -- unless of course the upside swing level is blown away.. The next upwards phase from there may kick off a new upside sequence which will go on and challenge the 4600 top, and perhaps extend gains further towards 4750 later in the year.


- S&P 500 - the scenario of a large pullback before the onset of a new bull cycle, appears to be saved by the inability to crack 1145 wide open. Nonetheless, keep up your guard. A further sell-off during the week may yet bring the index to at least 1115. We may yet a shot at 1100 - 1090 area before the bull is set loose. In any case, recent action is indeed supportive of the view that the new bull market cycle may have began and would accelerate higher at some point. The new upwards phase may go on and challenge the 1165 top, and thereafter extend gains to 1225 - 1230 later in the year.


- Dow Jones Ind Ave. - the scenario's 10,450 resistance seems to be holding up -- we may yet see further declines to at least 10,150. We still are biased for a bigger decline to 10,1000 -10,000. Noneteless, a new bull market waits in the wings to be confirmed -- eventually, we expect to see a rally to the 10,800 top, and perhaps further appreciation towards 11,500 later in the year.


- NDX 100 - still barring a break above 1520 (expect a rise to 1515), the index should continue to trade lower in the next few days. The index may do a corrective decline back to at least 1440, possibly even to 1405 - 1395 area -- a +test of the base+ type of correction. A new bull market waits in the wings -- we expect to see a test of the 1560 top thereafter, and perhaps further appreciation towards 1700 later in the year.


- Nikkei - the index has been higher and has gone above 11,6000. A +test of the base+ decline to 10,900 may not happen if the index rallies beyond 11,650. But barring that, allow for a retest of the base, which in this case may be 10,900. A new bull market should emanate from there, which may have 14,000 as the major goal late in the year. The short-term view hoiwever fails if the current rally goes above 11,600.


- Hang Seng - the index recovers to 12,450 area, , but it may yet resume the decline later in the week -- no change in view just yet. Still make allowances for a corrective decline back to 11,600 from here, a +test of the base+ type of retracement. The bull markets should then resume and may target the 16,500 - 17,000 area later in the year.

Copy of Tom Hougards analysis:
rgds
zarif

Lets review the situation of the market.



The market topped out on the 24th March 2000. We then dropped a classic 50% to end the bear market (for now) on the 10th October 2002. We then rallied 50% into the 17th February 2004.



In other words we went from 1554 to 775 and from 775 to 1163. This is the situation as we stand right now. The market looks tired and undecided to me. It is true that we have not seen any serious downside and we may rally from here beyond the 1163. However, we need to take out the 1163 area first. This has not happened yet and until it does you should be careful about being too enthusiastic about the long side.



The question you got to ask yourself is this: has the easy money been made in this market? Has the risks of the markets adequately been priced in? These are of course not technical questions but belong to the category of fundamental analysis. My argument here is that stocks are priced to beyond perfection. The stock market is expecting the US consumer to carry on spending. This is despite the fact that the bond market is now pricing in more rapid interest rate rises than Allan Greenspan is talking about.



The market found resistance at 1142 and dropped as I had hoped for. For today I am undecided. The market is in pre-holiday mode with Friday being closed for Reagans funeral. Today is roll-over day from June to Septembers contract. This creates a funny market.



The institutions will most likely have another wave of buying to mark up their portfolios going into month/quarter end. The market needs to hold the 1128 area from yesterday. This was test during the night and held. We are currently trading at 1135 in the SP500. A move below 1128 is a short with a tight stop. Otherwise, despite the sell-off yesterday you will need to favour the long side of the market.

Where are all the dowajers today?
Me i am zzzzzzzz.......
Too boring today.
Had a good short and a long on the cable so going to be nice weekend.

rgds
zarif

now to hit gds bar and the lap dancers there.

Dowagers. LOL!

Hi Guys,

Sold my shop at last. Must say it's been the most traumatic experience of my life. Nearly fell through at one point. What should have taken a couple of months eventually took nearly 10 months from offer to complettion. Got a couple of quid in the bank now and I've earmarked a small portion of it to increase my trading abilities.
Anybody use Sharescope? I'm about to buy it but would appreciate your comments.
Hope you are all well and have been trading successfully.

Zarif,
I've sent you a private message. Will you let me know if you receive it and try returning to me. I'm not sure if it's working properly for me.

Regards to you all
John

Harlosh
recived your internal mail and have sent u a reply.
rgds
zarif

DAX pullback may continue to 3825.

June 14, 2004 - Europe

Equity Market Summary -

Japanese semiconductor-related stocks declined today, led by Tokyo Electron Ltd. and Kyocera Corp., after UBS AG joined Deutsche Bank AG in telling investors to trim their holdings of chip-related shares. The Nikkei 225 Stock Average fell 12.44, or 0.1 percent, to 11,514.38 as of 2:02 p.m. in Tokyo. The Topix index gained 1.19, or 0.1 percent, to 1161.49.

It was a slow day on European bourses on Friday, given the closure of U.S. markets and anticipation of what is widely expected to be a strong second-quarter earnings season kicking off across the Atlantic next week. The continental majors both fell with a relatively small volume of trading; the DAX slipped 0.2% and the CAC-40 0.3%. Though there was little guidance in the way of corporate or economic news, the FTSE-100 and the Swiss Market Index (SMI) both bucked the trend and climbed 0.1% and 0.2%, respectively.


Equity Technicals:


- DAX Index - the index ended basically flat on Friday. We continue to hold on to the short-term scenario of a pullback to ideally 3825 - 3800 before the bullish medium-term view reasserts. However, the caveat remains -- that is, if the DAX goes through 4050, then it is unlikely that we will see this magnitude of a pullback. Nonetheless, the medium-term outlook remains unchanged -- expect a new upwards cycle which should go on and challenge the 4175 top further out, and perhaps go on and focus at a 4500 upside target later in the year. However, if the rally extends above 4,050, then the +pullback scenario+ is probably wrong.


- FTSE 100 Index - the index was marginally higher on Friday, but not before we saw a shapr initial sell-off. The view is unchanged -- we still hold out for the scenario of a short-term cascade to the 4395 area. . However, the view of a large pullback may still be nullified if the index rallies above 4515. But despite this, continue to make allowances for a +test of the base+ type of corrective decline, the target of which is the area of 4395 - 4380 late in the week -- unless of course the upside swing level is blown away.. The next upwards phase from there may kick off a new upside sequence which will go on and challenge the 4600 top, and perhaps extend gains further towards 4750 later in the year.


- S&P 500 - expect further upmove but resistance may appear at just below 1140. The scenario of a large downside pullback before the onset of a new bull cycle, appeared to have been saved before by the inability to crack 1145 wide open. Nonetheless, keep up your guard. A further sell-off during the week may yet bring the index to at least 1115. We may yet a shot at 1100 - 1090 area before the bull is set loose. In any case, recent action is indeed supportive of the view that the new bull market cycle may have began and would accelerate higher at some point. The new upwards phase may go on and challenge the 1165 top, and thereafter extend gains to 1225 - 1230 later in the year.


- Dow Jones Ind Ave. - indications show a higher open next, but 10,450 resistance should hold -- we may yet see further declines to at least 10,150 in the next few days. And we still are biased for a bigger decline to 10,1000 -10,000. Nonetheless, a new bull market waits in the wings to be confirmed -- eventually, we expect to see a rally to the 10,800 top, and perhaps further appreciation towards 11,500 later in the year.


- NDX 100 - still barring a break above 1495 (expect further uptick to 1485 today), the index should continue to trade lower in the next few days. The index may do a corrective decline back to at least 1440, possibly even to 1405 - 1395 area -- a +test of the base+ type of correction. A new bull market waits in the wings -- we expect to see a test of the 1560 top thereafter, and perhaps further appreciation towards 1700 later in the year.


- Nikkei - the index has eased somewhat and is now below 11,600. A +test of the base+ decline to 10,900 may not happen if the index rallies beyond 11,700. But barring that, allow for a retest of the base, which in this case may be 10,900. A new bull market should emanate from there, which may have 14,000 as the major goal late in the year. The short-term view however fails if the current rally goes above 11,600.


- Hang Seng - the index resumes the decline -- no change in view just yet. Still make allowances for a corrective decline back to 11,600 from here, a +test of the base+ type of retracement. The bull markets should then resume and may target the 16,500 - 17,000 area later in the year.

Thanks zarif.

Morning all.

afternoon guys: below is the copy of Tom Hougards Email.


Good morning



I have been thinking long and hard over the state of the market over the last 72 hours. Friday was not a trading day so I sat and looked over the charts to try and get an idea of what Wall Street is thinking. I looked over all the cycles I know of and all the data I have collected over the years.



The conclusion is that I dont know!



I agree I can do better than that, so allow me to run you through my thought process.



The SP500 peaked in March 2000 at 1554. This marked the end of the bull market as we know it and a two year bear market ensued. The bear market ended on a lovely harmonic cycle on the 10th October 2002. On that day the SP500 registered a 50% loss from the all-time high. This of course is a classical bear market characteristic.



Since then the market has rallied relentlessly and over the summer of 2003 had the ability to make my life miserable. I was calling for a top at this stage and lost out on some of the rally from 9200 to 9600. I got the top of the 19th February 2004. I am particular pleased with that call because it cemented in my mind the hidden beauty in the markets. On that day the cycle came in perfectly. On the same day the SP500 had regained 50% of what it had lost in the bear market decline. That is also a classic bear market characteristic.



Since the high on the 19th February we have made a lower high in early April. We made a perfect low at 1075 (it was a perfect low because it saw the market make an equal wave retracement) and have since rallied back up to the 1140 area.



I use several different kinds of forecasting tools. Some are based on natural cycles, some are based on Fibonacci cycles, and some are based on planetary cycles. So far this year they have been accurate in picking highs and lows.



The Fibonacci Spiral that I have shown repeatedly over the last 3 months on this email has been a very good indicator of the market turns. The most remarkable cluster of dates is coming in at the end of the month of June. There will be a very significant turn coming towards the end of the month. I am pretty sure about that.



I have solved most of the month for the Market Map. The turns look like we will see lower prices for the coming week, but then the cycles turn hard up again. As it is incredibly time consuming to solve for more than a few days at a time I will have to make due with two weeks of forecast.



The conclusion from a cycle point of view is that a major turn in the stock market is coming. I favour it to be a low for a reason I may not have mentioned before. We are in an election year in the US. The typical pattern of the election year is lower prices into the June/July period and then higher into November. So far the market is setting up perfectly for this pattern.



Of course it does not stop there. Have you ever heard of the Bradley astrological model? It is usually very accurate and has been over the last 4 years. This model goes straight down for the rest of the year with very few rallies at all.



Unfortunately I could go on and on, presenting diverse signals. It does not serve your purpose and I certainly dont want to waste your time. I will keep you updated on the cycles as they appear. I have 3 4 mentors who together have more than 150 years of trading and forecasting experience. Two of them are saying up and two of them are saying down. How is that for mentoring? J



The conclusion is that I can see the see bullish potential and I can see the bearish potential. It is very easy to see the bearish potential when you pull out your charts for the financial companies. They have had a 15% correction over the last couple of months and are trying to base. Keep an eye on them because they will give you the clue of the direction of the market. I am talking about stocks like Goldman Sachs, Merrill Lynch, Citi Group, and JPM to mention a few. I will short weakness in these stocks but not strength as they could be basing here for another leg up.



This week is the expiration week. The trend set in expiration is statistically significant in the sense that a negative expiration usually means more selling in the week after. I am watching the market right now and will short below 1130 in the SP500 with a stop above 1133. This is not advice in any shape or form. This is what I am doing. You must make your own conclusions. Tuesday should offer another opportunity to short the market as Wednesday should see more weakness.



I think I will leave it for now. My final advice (although I dont give advice per se) is that a move is coming. It will be a significant move and you really should try to make an effort on board. Right now it is looking like a bearish move. For those of you who know about my mirror image chart, you will know the importance of the last rally last week. This was all factored into this chart and from here onwards it is a one way street into the abyss.



Stay on your toes ladies and gentlemen. I can almost guarantee that the rest of the month will be exciting.



Tom

Published: Jun. 15 2004, 07:01 GMT

The Dow may fall further to 10,360, possibly to as low as 10,100 - 10,100


European stocks slid, paced by companies whose sales are most sensitive to economic expansion, amid concern interest rates in the U.S. may rise more than expected this year, braking global growth.







June 14, 2004 - EUROPE



- The Bank of Japan kept monetary policy unchanged at a board meeting in Tokyo as an accelerating recovery in the world's second-biggest economy hasn't ended six years of price declines. Governor Toshihiko Fukui and his eight policy board colleagues maintained the upper limit of the central bank's target for reserves available to lenders at 35 trillion yen ($316 billion) and kept interest rates at almost zero at a two-day meeting ended today, the bank said. The decision was unanimous. The government last week raised its estimate of first- quarter growth to a 6.1 percent annual pace from 5.6 percent. Japan's longest recovery since 1997 has prompted economists to expect the central bank to shift away from its policy of pumping money into the economy as early as next year as deflation may be nearing an end.


- Bank of England Governor Mervyn King said the risk of a decline in house prices is increasing, the central bank's latest attempt to cool the housing market after raising interest rates four times since November. "After the hectic pace of price rises over the past year it is clear that the chances of falls in house prices are greater than they were,'' King said in the text of a speech in Glasgow, Scotland. The proportion of people's income spent on buying homes has risen to ``record levels'' and is now ``well above what most people would regard as sustainable in the longer term.'' This is the strongest warning yet about the risk of house- price declines from a Bank of England policy maker, and the first from the head of the bank. Chief Economist Charles Bean said this month that house prices will either fall or stagnate.



- The Bank of Japan kept monetary policy unchanged at a board meeting in Tokyo as an accelerating recovery in the world's second-biggest economy hasn't ended six years of price declines. Governor Toshihiko Fukui and his eight policy board colleagues maintained the upper limit of the central bank's target for reserves available to lenders at 35 trillion yen ($316 billion) and kept interest rates at almost zero at a two-day meeting ended today, the bank said. The decision was unanimous. The government last week raised its estimate of first- quarter growth to a 6.1 percent annual pace from 5.6 percent. Japan's longest recovery since 1997 has prompted economists to expect the central bank to shift away from its policy of pumping money into the economy as early as next year as deflation may be nearing an end.


- Bank of England Governor Mervyn King said the risk of a decline in house prices is increasing, the central bank's latest attempt to cool the housing market after raising interest rates four times since November. "After the hectic pace of price rises over the past year it is clear that the chances of falls in house prices are greater than they were,'' King said in the text of a speech in Glasgow, Scotland. The proportion of people's income spent on buying homes has risen to ``record levels'' and is now ``well above what most people would regard as sustainable in the longer term.'' This is the strongest warning yet about the risk of house- price declines from a Bank of England policy maker, and the first from the head of the bank. Chief Economist Charles Bean said this month that house prices will either fall or stagnate.







Equity Market Summary -



Asian stocks fell on concern a U.S. report today will show accelerating inflation, prompting the Federal Reserve to increase interest rates faster than expected. The Morgan Stanley Capital International Asia-Pacific Index, which tracks more than 900 stocks, slipped 0.9 percent to 87.37 at 11:41 a.m. in Tokyo. It lost 2.1 percent in the past two sessions. Japan's Nikkei 225 Stock Average sank 1.2 percent, South Korea's Kospi index fell 0.6 percent and Taiwan's Taiex index dropped 0.4 percent. Benchmarks in markets opened for trading declined except for those in China, Hong Kong and the Philippines.

U.S. stocks fell Monday on concern government reports this week may show inflation is accelerating, prompting the Federal Reserve to raise interest rates more quickly than some investors had forecast. The Standard & Poor's 500 Index lost 11.18, or 1 percent, to 1125.29. All 10 industry groups retreated. The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 75.37, or 0.7 percent, to 10,334.73. Both benchmarks had their biggest decline in almost a month. The Nasdaq Composite Index shed 29.88, or 1.5 percent, to 1969.99.

The U.S. economic data was mixed Monday, with May retail sales growth besting the consensus, but the trade deficit widening by more than expected in April. The details of the retail sales report were encouraging, despite the lion?s share of growth attributable to a surge in auto and gasoline sales. The spending data was well received by financial markets, as it essentially put to rest fears about a significant moderation in consumption in the second quarter. The unexpected jump in the trade deficit to a new monthly record intensified concern regarding required foreign investment needed to offset the growing imbalance.

The inflationary data in Europe and recent Fed comments have increased anticipation amongst market participants that interest rate hikes will come sooner, rather than later. As a result, stock markets have headed south Monday, with the DAX, CAC-40, and FTSE-100 shedding 1.9%, 1.4% and 1.0%, respectively.




Equity Technicals:


- DAX Index - the index fell further and has been to 3940 -- we continue to hold on to the short-term scenario of a pullback to ideally 3825 - 3800 before the bullish medium-term view reasserts. However, the caveat remains -- that is, if the DAX goes through 4050, then it is unlikely that we will see this magnitude of a pullback. Nonetheless, the medium-term outlook remains unchanged -- expect a new upwards cycle which should go on and challenge the 4175 top further out, and perhaps go on and focus at a 4500 upside target later in the year. However, if the rally extends above 4,050, then the +pullback scenario+ is probably wrong.


- FTSE 100 Index - the index went lower further -- it fell to 4430. The view is unchanged -- we still hold out for the scenario of a short-term cascade to the 4395 area. . However, the view of a large pullback may still be nullified if the index rallies above 4515. But despite this, continue to make allowances for a +test of the base+ type of corrective decline, the target of which is the area of 4395 - 4380 late in the week -- unless of course the upside swing level is blown away.. The next upwards phase from there may kick off a new upside sequence which will go on and challenge the 4600 top, and perhaps extend gains further towards 4750 later in the year.


- S&P 500 - the sell-off has been to as low as 1122. It may bounce back somewhat today, back to 1128. But further sell-off during the week may yet bring the index to at least 1115. We may yet a shot at 1100 - 1090 area before the bull is set loose. In any case, recent action is indeed supportive of the view that the new bull market cycle may have began and would accelerate higher at some point. The new upwards phase may go on and challenge the 1165 top, and thereafter extend gains to 1225 - 1230 later in the year.


- Dow Jones Ind Ave. - the index may bounce back to 10,360, but the scenario remains -- we may yet see further declines to at least 10,150 in the next few days. And we still are biased for a bigger decline to 10,1000 -10,000. Nonetheless, a new bull market waits in the wings to be confirmed -- eventually, we expect to see a rally to the 10,800 top, and perhaps further appreciation towards 11,500 later in the year.


- NDX 100 - we may see apullback to 1460, but the index should continue to trade lower in the next few days. The index may do a corrective decline back to at least 1440, possibly even to 1405 - 1395 area -- a +test of the base+ type of correction. A new bull market waits in the wings -- we expect to see a test of the 1560 top thereafter, and perhaps further appreciation towards 1700 later in the year.


- Nikkei - the index weakened further and has gone below 11.400 --we may yet that +test of the base+ decline to 10,900. Allow for a retest of the base, which in this case may be 10,900. A new bull market should emanate from there, which may have 14,000 as the major goal late in the year. The short-term view however fails if the current rally goes above 11,600.


- Hang Seng - the index foiund support at 12,000. but should resume the decline later in the week. Still make allowances for a corrective decline back to 11,600 from here, a +test of the base+ type of retracement. The bull markets should then resume and may target the 16,500 - 17,000 area later in the year.

futures have risen after cpi data and indicate a higher opening.Will it be a pop and drop.Resistance at 10450.Also greenbum talking at 4pm gmt.

trade wisely and safely easier ti short the rallies specially if they are on low volumes.

rgds
zarif

email i recieved from Tom Hougard


Wow, Europe is the most quiet I have experienced in weeks. We got some important time counts coming up. For example we got the Dow hitting a 0.618 time count later in the week. However, there is just so little going on and the market seems very confused. If you look at individual stocks they are trading in a very narrow range. The time cycles are still spinning out good turns in the market. I will cover some of them later on in the day and send them out to you.



I looked at the big picture yesterday and I would like to continue in that vein today. The SP500 is barely up for the year and neither is the Dow. As a matter of fact the indices have gone nowhere for the last 6 months. Is that bullish? Is that bearish? There is no easy answer to that question. However, history has taught me that when you least expect a big move (in this case over the summer period) you should expect one. I said it yesterday and I will say again today: get ready. I expected a down day yesterday and I got 75 Dow points. Is this the beginning of the big move? As long as we are below 1132 I am bearish.



I got today as a wish-wash between bullish and bearish but I will short any rally today even if it does temporarily gets above 1132 because I am expecting Wednesday and Friday to be down hard. This is based on the Map I do. This is my strategy. A close above 1132 will make me nervous and I will close out my shorts if the market settles above 1132. The big turn of the day does not come until 19:00 19:40 which is about 90 minutes before the close in the US.



Good luck today



Tom

http://uk.finance.yahoo.com/q?s=^NDX&d=c&k=c3&a=ss,w14,m26-12-9,r14&p=m10,m20,m50,m100&t=5d&l=on&z=m&q=c

Looking to open a short on the NDX. We've closed the gap open
from yesterday, but we've still got a gap from last Wednesday
circa 1495.

Greenspan waffling again today, somewhere around 1600Hrs I think,
so that'll decide whether we go down today or fill that last gap.
Will bide my time. We've got several gaps to fill on the downside
including todays.

Melnibone.