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Technical Analysis (TA)     

ptholden - 09 Jul 2007 23:14

I often find all manner of reference to Technical Analysis whilst reading threads, questioning certain elements, asking for advice on indicators and also requesting advice on a stock and whether it's a good time to buy, sell, hold or remain indifferent. I am the first to admit that my own TA is still in its infancy, but I do spend time on expanding my knowledge (hopefully in the right direction!).

Rather than having to ask a TA question on a particular thread, perhaps this thread could be used as a forum for TA queries and become a knowledge base. Just a thought, if there is little or no interest, the thread will sink without trace and that will be the end of that. I will personally add a few snippets to help those with less knowledge (if that's possible) to keep things rolling. There is a danger that the thread will receive countless requests for opinions on a variety of stocks and there is only so much I can do alone, therefore I would more than welcome input from other posters, no matter how rudimentary they believe their own knowledge to be, hopefully some real experts will take the time to contribute.

cynic - 25 Jul 2007 08:16 - 192 of 504

CSR had to be a great buy this morning at +/-800, so have just jumped back in at 807

Greyhound - 25 Jul 2007 08:40 - 193 of 504

garfee, nice question, 2-3 year time frame is a hard one as we're talking some 26 year lows. The last two times I traded cable back in 1992 when sterling crashed out of the ERM we saw a fast retracement. My general feeling is cable at 2.1050ish this time,should the 2.0530 hold. 2-3 years back to 1.80/1.60 perhaps. Really not sure so don't make any decisions on that!!! UK rates will eventually peak and US rates will start to fall (maybe another hike shouldn't be ruled out first).

Only trading cable is fine but you shouldn't look in isolation, look at AUD, NZD because these are the "things" that provide the impetus for the big overruns in the fx markets (which is why I think 2.10 is a real possibility - and then maybe buy property in Vegas being the fastest growing US city!!).

garfeebloke - 25 Jul 2007 08:44 - 194 of 504

Greyhound, thanks for that, I shall study.

Greyhound - 25 Jul 2007 08:50 - 195 of 504

No worries, as a footnote I should add I have lost a lot of money too! And the hardest thing is still to book your loss and move on. Stick with your gut instincts - I've closed many a position on speaking with major bank dealing rooms when they've got it wrong.

Greyhound - 25 Jul 2007 09:04 - 196 of 504

Dollar coming back with some clout right now, ready to blow all the above out of the water.

ptholden - 25 Jul 2007 09:07 - 197 of 504

Guys whilst welcoming your thoughts on the TA aspect of FX, please remember this is a TA thread not a FX thread, there's one in the Traders Room if you wish to join in. Many thanks

pth

Greyhound - 25 Jul 2007 09:14 - 198 of 504

Apologies, no intention of hijacking.

sned - 25 Jul 2007 09:17 - 199 of 504

PTH - thanks for the ACU analysis - I'll just have to watch this a bit further then, and look at getting in around the 90 mark (hopefully there won't be any "big" news to spike it up before it gets there). Thanks again.

sned - 25 Jul 2007 09:20 - 200 of 504

cynic - CSR is a bit choppy though - nearly got in @ 731 this morning - already back up to 780 (800??) - please tell me i read this right

ptholden - 25 Jul 2007 09:23 - 201 of 504

sned, CSR dropped through trendline support at 778p, looks like it's bounced off the 200MA.

garfeebloke - 25 Jul 2007 10:00 - 202 of 504

PT Greyhound, apologies, my fault.

ptholden - 25 Jul 2007 10:18 - 203 of 504

s'allright guys, FX TA is a good place to learn, moves so quickly, gives the opportunity to see what works and what does not :)

cynic - 25 Jul 2007 15:54 - 204 of 504

CSR ..... true i jumped back in too early, but i expected 800 to provide better support. however, i reckon their figures are pretty tasty and fully expect the stock to recover smartly (assuredly the kiss of death)

CABLE ..... 20530 now being challenged (arguably broken)though i accept there should be support somewhere between that level and 20470 ..... shall i top slice? ..... not sure ..... answer = i shall be out if $ weakens to 20520 (currently 20499.40), but may shift that later if $ continues to strengthen

cynic - 25 Jul 2007 18:33 - 205 of 504

and so it was ...... $ now 20505 but as i am out for dinner this evening and could not watch am more than happy to have made a good turn ...... Wall Street has turned soggy again, so all rather ominous for the morrow

sned - 25 Jul 2007 19:06 - 206 of 504


PTH and all - May I please ask for some analysis on FPEA? I moved out of this a few weeks ago, since when it has remained quite flat @ its present levels. Seems to have held out the present storm; had a (in my opinion) a good recent up-trend and wondering whether I should have another go based on TA.
Thanks again - Simon

ptholden - 25 Jul 2007 21:27 - 207 of 504

Quite a few volatile days on the markets. Pleased to see that my targets have been hit, a small precis with approximate profits:

TAN Short from 207p - target hit at 175p = 30 pts
SCHE Short from 280p - target hit at 235p = 45 pts
DOO Short from 265p - -target hit at 240p = 20 pts
CSR Long from 760p - target hit at 900p = 140 pts
Bearish on CSR from 840p - target of 820p = No idea what I would have closed at today :S
EMG - Long & Short, have lost track
WNG Long from 104p - position still open - currently -6 pts
SOLA - originally short, but would have closed flat, suffering from fence sitting syndrome.

The others were just an opinion and would not necessarily have been traded.

Difficult to come up with an exact total because of CSR & EMG, but probably somewhere in the region of 350-400 pts, even at just 10 per pt that would mean 3.5k - 4k over a two week period. The point I am making is that you do not have to bank the house on a trade to make significant profits, if you had, say at 100 per pt the same trades would have netted 35k - 40 on spread bets.

Think I might rest on my laurels for a while.

pth

ptholden - 25 Jul 2007 22:06 - 208 of 504

simon

I have had a look at FPEA, I have to say I know nothing about this type of stock. It seems to go for days without any movement at all and sometimes extreme falls. I really wouldn't like to try and predict where its going next. Seems that you can lose half of your investment in a heartbeat, not one for widows and orphans.

pth

sned - 26 Jul 2007 09:06 - 209 of 504

thanks for that pth - i will take note of yur comments (being an orphan myself .......:)

ptholden - 26 Jul 2007 12:08 - 210 of 504

Maggie, not entirely sure about this but EMG is back to a support level of 600p, have a suspicion it may be on its way back down to 565p - 575p. If you were back in at 600p might be an idea to close? Just a thought, no advice intended.

With the overall market weakness at the moment I can see that quite a few trending shares are no longer doing so and it's becoming more difficult to judge where they are going next. Trends come to and end eventually.

pth

cynic - 26 Jul 2007 14:03 - 211 of 504

i am sure there are loads of potential bargains in today's market, but i rather fear there will be many more and greater in the coming days and weeks ...... glad i'm short of SOLA but shame that my Cable short was closed out, albeit at a good profit - was out of range for constant monitoring and it would have been easy for that profit to have evaporated.

i just reiterate something i posted (153 i think) ....... "the turbulence of the current markets does give me cause for concern as, from memory, this sort of nonsense is often the prelude to rather more prolonged nastiness."
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