< "> edit this post http://www.investegate.co.uk/afren-plc-%28afr%29/rns/trading-statement-and-operations-update/201301210700069619
http://www.investegate.co.uk/afren-plc--afr-/rns/2012-full-year-results/201303250700107200A/

In an attempt to cut down the header page,i've transferred some of the older news to Page1 post No.3.

http://www.oil-price.net/index.php?lang=en
http://www.ft.com/home/uk

http://www.investegate.co.uk/Article.aspx?id=201111020700081674R
http://www.investegate.co.uk/Article.aspx?id=201111150700250723S
http://www.investegate.co.uk/Article.aspx?id=201112010705051251T
http://www.investegate.co.uk/Article.aspx?id=201201170700146472V
http://www.investegate.co.uk/Article.aspx?id=201201230701479690V
http://www.moneyam.com/action/news/showArticle?id=4323758
http://www.investegate.co.uk/Article.aspx?id=201204170700164488B
http://www.investegate.co.uk/Article.aspx?id=201205140700212304D
http://www.investegate.co.uk/Article.aspx?id=201205210700407032D
http://www.moneyam.com/action/news/showArticle?id=4430164
http://www.investegate.co.uk/afren-plc-%28afr%29/rns/significant-new-seychelles-3d-seismic-programme/201212120700052973T/
http://www.investegate.co.uk/afren-plc--afr-/rns/2013-half-yearly-results/201308230700063334M/
http://www.investegate.co.uk/afren-plc--afr-/rns/ogo-drilling-and-resources-update/201311190700083404T/
http://www.investegate.co.uk/afren-plc--afr-/rns/trading-statement-and-operations-update/201401280700096280Y/
http://www.investegate.co.uk/afren-plc--afr-/rns/interim-management-statement/201405200700135209H/
http://www.investegate.co.uk/afren-plc--afr-/rns/interim-management-statement/201410300700116483V/
http://www.moneyam.com/action/news/showArticle?id=4942625
http://www.moneyam.com/action/news/showArticle?id=4943375

I think Afren should now consolidate its position and not take on any more debt until they up production.

Interesting comments which to some extent support my own position. I agree with Aldwickk's last post as the management have not performed well in the last 6 months, seem to be dreaming of the future and not concentrating on current production. The share price shows this, but over done due to the world's financial situation. Having started at 38p I am in for the longer term even though I believe the price of oil in 2012 has only one way to go - South. By how much I have no idea. However I believe there is a fair chance the share price will be 120 in December 2012. My reason for this optomistic forecast is the Shell deal which should add to the production. If there is some good news from E Africa and/or Kurdistan then this will be a bonus. If my whole portfolio in 2012 goes up by 30% then I might even go the MoneyAm drinks and stand a round.
Cynic I am not sure what I have to defend. You might note this is only my second post in five years with Moneyam so you will hardly ever hear from me. But I have read many comments from you over the years and should have learnt something as I am one of the worlds worst sellers and cutters. I have a number of long term investments i.e short term investments gone wrong.

what have i missed? ..... what fields do AFR have in EAST africa?

cynic see ALD's post 1774, do try to keep up!

ach so! ..... i dare say i read that but discounted the value of those sites

This is cheap @75p

AFR tends to follow rhe oil price movement which has fallen sharply today,so worth
keeping an eye on the POO.

niceone what is AFR's cost of production that will determine their sp.

Halifax; you should get an idea from the full year results,but they should be releasing
the RNS confirming 50,000bopd which will give a clearwer picture?

http://www.investegate.co.uk/Article.aspx?id=201103290700157844D

This should be higher......50000 barrels......the debt will be paid off quickly with that sort of production....

Starting to creep up......way undervalued should production get close to 50000.....the earnings cashflow would be tremendous !.

That sounds very similar to what they said in this week's Shares Mag!!!

"Tom Sieber
Investors should follow buying by Egbert Imomoh, the non-executive chairman of oil explorer Afren (AFR), since the market is failing to give the company full credit for its producing assets and growth potential. nigerian national Imomoh, one of the founders of the group, bought £230,790 worth of shares earlier this month (15 dec).
Afren expects to exit 2011 with a production rate of around 50,000 barrels of oil equivalent per day. Based on a consensus forecast earnings per share for 2012 of 20p the company trades on a price/earnings ratio (Pe) of just 3.9. we would expect the shares to be re-rated as the £831 million market cap executes on its plan to exploit its potentially substantial assets in Kurdistan, northern Iraq and addresses concerns over its nigerian assets.
Afren announced it had completed the acquisition of the Barda rash and Ain sifni fields, first announced in July, last month (2 nov) and also dealt with funding concerns by unveiling a $200 million lending facility. these announcements were overshadowed by reports, since proven to be false, that its stake in the OMl 26 block had been confiscated by the nigerian state oil company. the firm’s focus should, in any case, shift over the medium term with the newlyacquired fields in Kurdistan estimated to contain a combined 890 million barrels of oil in contingent resources. A phased development is expected to see Afren’s net production from the region reach 125,000 barrels of oil per day by 2017."
Shares says: Buy Afren at 77.6p.

This should be double what it is Harrycat, sp wise.....just starting to rise.....and I hope they get on with some exploration soon....

harry lets see the 50000 bopd before we get too excited.

Does that qualify as a 'Pennant' formation on the graph?

Afren oil explorer says output ahead of target
Mon Jan 2, 2012 10:25am GMT Print | Single Page [-] Text [+]

1 of 1Full Size
BRUSSELS (Reuters) - Energy exploration firm Afren said production at its Ebok field, offshore Nigeria, had reached around 40,000 barrels per day (bpd), taking its end-2011 net output to some 55,400 barrels of oil equivalent per day (boepd), ahead of target.

An output rate above the year-end goal of 50,000 boepd has been sustained since December 19, it said, as a result of operations in Ivory Coast as well as Ebok and Okoro in Nigeria.

"The group is in a strong position with aggregate net working interest production of 55,400 boepd going into 2012," Osman Shahenshah, chief executive of Afren, said in a statement on Monday.

He added the company's forthcoming drilling campaign in Ghana, Nigeria, the Joint Development Zone of Nigeria Sao Tome and Principe, Tanzania, Kenya and the Kurdistan region of Iraq had the potential "to materially transform and increase our discovered resource base".

In Nigeria, output at the Ebok field has increased to a stabilised rate of around 40,000 bpd following the commissioning and ramp-up of all production wells associated with the initial phases of the development.

In addition, gross production on the Ogini and Isoko fields, onshore Nigeria, has nearly doubled to around 10,500 bpd from 6,000 bpd following technical changes at the start of December.

Over the course of last year, Afren's share price lost close to half its value, reaching a low below 75 pence in November. A December rally took it to 85.70 pence by the end of 2011, around 15 percent above the November trough.
http://af.reuters.com/article/investingNews/idAFJOE80101U20120102?feedType=RSS&feedName=investingNews

good news :-))

Nice ,,should head back over the pound now ..

Liberum note:
"Afren yesterday announced that with Ebok now fully onstream, group production rate achieved by end 2011 was 55,400 boepd. This is 10% ahead of company guidance and our forecast of 50,000 boepd. Management had twice lowered this guidance over 2011. Given the significant share price underperformance relative to its peers the market was clearly sceptical Ebok would be developed in time or that guidance would be met.
There was a further encouraging update on FHN. Since the completion of the OML 26 acquisition on the 1st December, production has nearly doubled from 6,000 boepd to 10,500 boepd. Cash flows should materially increase, and focus will now shift to Afren's exploration campaign and Kurdistan. The Iraqi region still remains a concern but could be a source of significant growth should the political environment improve. At 86p the shares are good value, trading on c. 2x 2012 debt-adjusted cash flow. Given the positive update we expect them to react strongly this morning. With a 116p price target we reiterate our BUY recommendation."

Credit Suisse upgrade note.
"Upgrading to Outperform as Afren offers an improved risk/reward profile. With production from the Ebok field in Nigeria now stabilised at c40kbpd, we believe that a material 2012 drilling programme with a comfortable balance sheet offers an attractive entry point. Ramp-up delays at Ebok were not due to reservoir issues and with production now stabilised, we think that the problems are behind us. We remove our 15% risking on the Ebok field to arrive at our new target price of 130p/sh (from 114p/sh).
Comfortable financial position, but stable Ebok production in 2012 is important to de-lever Afren’s balance sheet beyond. We expect Afren to have $305m cash at end-2011. Going forward, Afren is dependent on strong cashflows from Ebok to reduce its end-2011E net debt of $581m. On our $105/bbl Brent estimate for 2012, we expect Afren to generate CFO of $903m and with its $305m cash position, it would be sufficient to fund $845m of 2012 cash uses. The potential worst case scenario remains if the banks scale back their reserve based lending facility that could restrict Afren’s growth plans.
Material resource upside potential. Up to 15 wells in 2012 offer a balance of high-risk, high-impact exploration (Keta in Ghana, OPL30 in Nigeria) and lower risk exploration/appraisal (Jebel Simrit wells in the Kurdish region of Iraq, Ebok/Okwok/OML115 wells in Nigeria). The 2012 programme is worth 28p/sh on our risked NAV with a blue sky upside of 170p/sh.