ASOS have dropped quite significantly in the past week for no particular reason and I view this as the perfect opportunity to invest as I can see them bouncing right back up to the 5.50p mark in the next 2-3 weeks. STRONG BUY!!

It's a good strong statement, saying FY results will not be less than market expectations - i.e. quite possibly a bit better, but reserving his position, since the year is not yet finished, and also so actual results will give a further boost at that time.

80% up has to be good and I bet the insurance claim last year was a lot less than the actuals over the 2 weeks to Xmas this year.

Market forecast is for EPS of 3.38p (78% growth) for a PE of 36.1 and a PEG of 0.5 - a nice strong growth stock. However EPS for 2008 only forecast to grow at 26% - presumably due to further spending on logistics/distribution and European expansion. Then we pick up the trail again with 57% growth for 2009. That will make 50% p.a. compound growth over 4 years since first profitability at a 2009 PE of 18.2 and PEG of 0.36 - wonderful. As long as NR and team continue to perform as hitherto there is alot of life left in this share for a few years to come.

(However not as strong as RCG's update! - sorry off topic.)

Profit taking this morning, Eric.....?

Interesting day. As expected, quite a lot of profit taking first thing. Surprising though to see the sp back 6 points. Half recovered by the end of the day with a good lot of buying. More than half the selling accounted for by a 250K trade sale.

As the savvy sd says, probably Robertson is holding his hosses on year end but his enthusiasm is palpable. Worth looking at the later AFX statements as they add detail, e.g. planning this year to focus on extending product size ranges and attracting mpre major fashion labels to the site; also doubling pages in its glossy magazine. No mention of Europe. This could mean another bumber trading year and bring forward the 2009 forecast a year. More will be unfolded with the April trading statement and Finals. I recall that Seymour Pierce said that they would update their forecast.

Eric

The key dates last year were: 10th May trading update and 4th July for Finals. I would expect these to be earlier this year given the complications of the fire insurance claim. John Marshall's comments in Shares should be interesting. the trading figures do indicate a forecast upgrade. The potential should keep buyers interested and I am still looking for the sp to move higher in the near term.

2007 looks low as all trading figures have been better than 78% (85%?). 2008 looks very low on sd figures as there is clearly so much action left in the UK market as is clear from today's commentary. So the 28% could be way down and actual figure more like 60%. So we could be looking at a 2008 pe of 20 when it should be 30. With dividends a real possibilitythis is becoming an investment for dividend growth share - no more speculative - boo hoo! Do I move on? When the market valuation has changed accordingly.

Eric

Can't remember which brokers cover this share. Are we due an update from any of them after the trading update, or do we have to wait till the prelims in June/July?

15/01/2007 10:00 MARKET TALK: ASOS House Broker Seymour Rejigs Forecasts

1000 GMT [Dow Jones] ASOS' (ASC.LN) house broker Seymour Pierce rejigs the online retailer's sales and profit forecasts following its Christmas trading update. "Whilst sales have been good by anyone's standards, it looks as if our initial estimate of group turnover has been a little optimistic, and we pull it back by GBP2.8M to GBP37.55M. Even so, profits are expected to be in line with market expectations, with higher margin and slightly lower-than-expected overheads. As a result, we leave our (pretax profit) estimate at GBP3.31M," the broker says. For fiscal '08, Seymour Pierce upgrades turnover to GBP52.55M from GBP51.6M, up 40% in the Asos.com business, and with margins expected to improve, the broker increases its pretax profit estimate to GBP4.45M from GBP3.8M. Seymour Pierce retains a buy on ASOS. ASOS shares trade -4.9% at 116.25p. (LEV) Contact us in London. +44-20-7842-9464 Markettalk.eu@dowjones.com

Well done, Woodie. You answered sd's questions within the hour. Firstly, let me say that the projection is made more difficult by problems in comparison with last year (the fire) and the preceding year (warehousing problems affecting Xmas sales). My check on the figures says that the comparison year (2006) should be more like 23.5m based on second half mirroring first half. An 80% uplift would then give 41.7m. You wonder what basis has been used for projections.

There is an uplift to 2008 figures which looks cautious based on trend figures in the UK internet figure and the small market penetration yet achieved. Of course, if they start making a major run for Europe it could take their eye off the UK ball.

2008 figures are earnings of 6p per share, say 4.2p after tax or a pe of 28.5 at 120p. Seymour Pierce rate ASC a buy. I suspect it is moving from a trader's share to an investor's share.

Eric

Independent

MARKET REPORT: Compass (rumours of buyout) - THE INVESTMENT COLUMN: Lookers (buy), Asos (buy), Victoria Oil & Gas (hold

Thanks Woodie. Not surprising a fair amount of profit taking yesterday, since broker almost downgrades their estimates for FY07 - at least it does not improve, so sell on fact. Eric, I make their figures come out at EPS of 3.42p looking at Digitallook's broker forecasts, amended by SP figures as far as they go. Woodie did SP mention EPS or PE numbers anywhere? Is there a website link you can post?

For 2008, I hope they are being typically conservative, so as to effectively manage expectations. I would hope for at least 50% growth in turnover after 2007's 80%(?) comparative growth over the previous year. Not sure why Digitallook broeker forecasts show EPS rising more slowly than Turnoover for 2008 - unless this is the extra spend on logistics/distribution they've mentioned.

Worth holding till results in June and then have another look at 2008 updated forecasts.

stockdog sorry was taken from afx news

sd As mentioned above, SP figures don't look right. The problem is the lack of comparatives because of the fire. Looking at FY05 the H2 was 87% on H1. If the same were repeated we would have H2 current year at about 27.7m, i.e. 43.6m for the year. SP H2 figures are only 36% up on H1which seems obviously too low. Needs a WOD calculation!

The market though took a turn up yesterday at around the time SP figures were released and have continued to strengthen today. Sensible to hold for the prelims at least. My holding is in the CFD pot where I am looking for quick gains. I'll wait for John Marshall on Thursday.

Eric

Agree Eric - we need to see the prelims and then get a handle on updated broker forecasts.
Since, I can see this going to 200p by this time next year, I am happy to hold until proved wrong.

Nothing to say till end of June now.

Single protected trade of 100K shares at 119p is assumed a buy by Hoodless Brennan. A market maker buy of 50K shares at 120p. Quite a bit of action yet to come.

sd Last year's finals were 5th July but there was a trading statement May to report recovery from Buncefield fire. In 2005, there was a trading update on 3rd March which gave range of pbt between 1.05 and 1.2m but this was a disappointment due to warehouse problems. Question is whether we will get a trading report or have to deduce that no news is good news (NNIGS). Hard one to call. Seymour Pierce presumably will have access to end of year trading figures early April and may well correct there clearly erroneous projections. Having said that, I think I wil drop them a line (but will wait for John Marshall comment in Shares tomorrow first)!

Eric

eric not much of a mention from j m this week buried with the other retailers.might be more next week.

eric - maybe 2008 forecasts are not so erroneous, due to heavy spend on more warehouse/distribution infra-structure. 2009 forecasts pick up again to where you'd expect since growth will continue strongly without the additional spend.

If the mgt continue to get it right, there is no reason why you should not hold this for 10 years -- Warren Buffet says only buy a share if you'd be prepared to buy the whole company and hold for ever, doesn't he?

Agree stockdog re focus. John Marshall's comment is positive. He comments on the growth in internet shopping demonstrated over Christmas "which provided a boost for ASOS, whose sales were up by 80% compared with last year. Although the company's statement was not followed by profit upgrades, Ratner (Seymour Pierce) raised his 2007-08 forecast to 4.45million. He also believed that pre-tax profits could yet grow to 7million the following year and has raised his price target to 150p - 23% above their current 121.5p trading level."

This I would take as reliable and dispalaces a previous report - somebody has TKT (knickers..). Clearly a buy. However, having a nice profit on a cfd I have taken part of it and put it into AZM who are trading slightly below their support level. Making a comment on that thread - its worth a look and a stake.
Eric

Pre-close trading report on 30th April. May be a run up in sp in advance. Remember John Marshall's target price of 150p. Uncle Eric says BUY!

Eric

Very positive comment today in Shares. Looking for Monday results to significantly beat forecast and expecting spike in price. Uncle Eric was there first!

Eric

eric thanks for update

ASOS PLC
30 April 2007


FOR RELEASE
7.00 am
Monday 30 April 2007


ASOS plc
('ASOS or Group')
A leading Internet based fashion retailer

Trading Statement for the year ended 31 March 2007


* ASOS.com sales for the 12 months to 31 March 2007 up 111% to 38.4m

* Group profit before tax and exceptional items expected to be slightly
ahead of market expectations

* Sales for the 4 weeks to 26 April 2007 up 102% on last year


Nick Robertson, the Chief Executive, made the following comments.

'I am pleased to report another strong year. Whilst we are reporting a 111%
increase in sales, it should be noted that the comparative year was affected by
the Buncefield fuel depot explosion in December 2005. We believe a figure of 80%
would more accurately reflect the performance of the business.

In March 2007 ASOS.com recorded its highest traffic levels ever, with over
2 million unique visitors to the website.

We remain optimistic about the prospects of ASOS.com and early signs are that
2007/8 should be another strong year of growth for the company. Sales for the 4
weeks to 27 April are 102% ahead of last year.'

Final results for the year to 31 March 2007 will be released in the week
commencing 9 July 2007.

Exceptional items in the year include a receipt of 570,000 insurance proceeds
relating to the Buncefield fuel depot explosion and a charge of 239,000
relating to the closure of Entertainment Marketing (UK) Ltd.

In the final results for the year ended 31 March 2007 the presentation of sales
will change to include 4.3m of postage and packaging receipts which have
previously been offset against the cost; this will increase ASOS.com sales from
38.4m (as noted above in the highlights) to 42.6m. The sales for the previous
year will also be re-presented increasing sales by 1.5m to 19.7m. There is no
impact on profit before tax.


For further information:


ASOS plc
Nick Robertson, Chief Executive Tel: 020 7240 7070
Jon Kamaluddin, Finance Director