This sums up much of my thinking - I hold a few and swing trade a few and even trade intraday sometimes ......

I think there is a lot of slack that management can cut out of the costs and would also anticipate sector consolidation ..... good value currently and have been holding their own in a falling market. Lot of US interest.

ains


Edited by Dominic White
(Filed: 08/02/2003)


Texting makes MmO2 sexy but it's also risky

More and more Britons are discovering the joys of textual intercourse. In the month of December, we fired off more than 50m mobile messages a day, and next Friday (that's Valentine's Day, folks, in case you'd forgotten) we'll send considerably more than that.



It emerged this week that the chief beneficiary of this craze is MmO2 . BT's former mobile phone division revealed that it gets a higher proportion of revenues from texting than any of the other three operators.

Revenue from messaging grew at its fastest rate ever in the last quarter, up 19pc, and data services as a proportion of MmO2 's revenue rose to 17.7pc from 15.6pc.

More good news was the rise in MmO2 's average revenues per customer. ARPUs, as nerdy analysts like to dub them, grew by 5pc to 243 in the UK and by 9pc in Germany to 212.

MmO2 now has 19.1m subscribers and in Britain it may be the smallest player, with 11.9m users, but it is growing faster than its rivals - testament to the success of its rebranding from BT Cellnet.

Only 114,000 of its 503,000 new UK subscribers were higher-spending contract customers, but MmO2 claims its pre-pay customers have started spending more than before.

Customer growth in Germany, which continues to be dominated by T-Mobile and Vodafone, is less impressive and the MmO2 share price ascribes little or no value to this part of the business.

That seems unfair, given the fact that the group has attracted higher-spending customers and has made a decent fist of turning the operation around. An eventual sale or merger is almost as inevitable as a disposal of the Dutch unit, which is losing customers.

MmO2 's larger rival Vodafone is trading on a free cashflow yield of 6pc, while at 49p this week, MmO2 's equivalent valuation remains negative. It might not have Vodafone's scale or profitability but there is room for upside. A risky buy.

Is L2 weaker and will O2 go <54.5? Also what do you think it will close at today?

Telecom sector is a litle weak this morning - along wit the general market

US futures are marginally off - ahead of weekend

OOm is under-performing but would expect a recovery against the market - I think a close around 55p.

L2 is around evens at this time - talk of another BR cut maybe



Buy orders Sell orders
Num(%) Num Vol(%) Vol VWAP Vol Vol(%) Num Num(%)
1% (66.67%) 20 (69.46%) 1,782,127 54.27 - 54.91 783,543 (30.54%) 10 (33.33%)
5% (62.16%) 23 (61.13%) 2,320,927 54.09 - 55.19 1,475,957 (38.87%) 14 (37.84%)
10% (60.42%) 29 (56.31%) 2,510,527 54.01 - 55.59 1,947,818 (43.69%) 19 (39.58%)
15% (44.78%) 30 (47.79%) 2,710,527 53.72 - 56.72 2,960,806 (52.21%) 37 (55.22%)
50% (46.38%) 32 (54.09%) 3,488,211 52.66 - 56.72 2,960,806 (45.91%) 37 (53.62%)
100% (47.30%) 35 (53.81%) 3,508,331 52.56 - 56.86 3,011,498 (46.19%) 39 (52.70%)
all (46.05%) 35 (53.77%) 3,508,331 52.56 - 56.99 3,015,798 (46.23%) 41 (53.95%

From Cellular News


The adult entertainment industry has to be one of the most odd businesses in the world. It is all about one of the most natural things in the world between being born and dying yet practically no one wants to admit having any knowledge of ever having been near it and to top it all someone is spending 10's of billions of Euros a year on it.

But when looking at what the adult entertainment industry has done for the Internet, it is not surprising that more and more people in the mobile sector are secretly hoping that adult entertainment can help push the mobile industry forward in the same way.

Looking at the Internet, adult entertainment has helped push the Internet forward in many different ways. For example, getting access to adult content has helped the growth in the number of PC's in the home and been one of the reasons to connect those PC's to the Net. The adult entertainment business has helped the development of compression technologies, especially in streaming software and optimising bandwidth capabilities, surfers have upgraded their PC's with graphics and sound capabilities and of course embraced ADSL. Maybe one of the most important factors that the adult entertainment business should take some of the credit for is the fact that it has helped teach surfers how to install and use different software products like Real Video and given them a better understanding and knowledge of the capabilities of the PC and Internet. Although there are no statistics available, many peoples first buying experience on the Internet using their credit card could well have been for some adult content - making the next purchase for software, goods or other items much easier. Adult content has helped many other new technologies on their way including CD-ROMs, VCR's, various types of cameras, and even cable television.

Unfortunately, asides from adult content, it has been very difficult to make money on the Internet and the lack of micro billing from the start has simply meant that most surfers will not pay for most of the online content they find - asides from the "need to have".

It is simply this scenario that the mobile sector is now looking to, as mobile phones today really start having multimedia capability, with larger colour screens, video capability, larger memory on memory cards and processors on some of the smart phones that are faster than most PC's 10 years ago.

One of the biggest differences is that mobile consumers have never had access to any free content on their mobile phone. All content costs at least the price of an SMS or phone call. Another huge difference between the Internet and the mobile sector is that the mobile operators are already billing customers and any new content can simply be billed on the consumers monthly phone bill.

Even if the adult entertainment business decides not to go with the mobile operators billing systems, for example by offering an Internet subscription you pay with your credit card that includes access from your mobile phone, the mobile operator will still earn money on the actual data traffic that user will generate when accessing content over the air.

Of course, an adult entertainment provider could even bypass that, by offering the user to download adult content directly from his PC to his mobile phone, but then the user has to be careful who for example borrows his phone - as it has resident adult content on it that discloses his or her sexual preferences - something many people would prefer to keep private. It is much more likely that mobile consumers will go for content that they access online through their mobile browser - or as streaming - when the need arises - so to speak and absolutely no pun intended!

Those who think that no one in their right mind would enjoy adult content on a mobile screen simply because of the screen size will have to think again. There is already a mobile adult entertainment business that is - all things considered - doing quite nicely on the very limited SMS platform. Also mobile services are being used to promote adult content on the Internet, to buy and pay for passwords to an Internet site and other innovative uses of the up till now very limited mobile terminal capabilities. Also adult content on a larger colour mobile screen will be just as good or better quality than what we saw in the early days of the Internet, where there was already lots of adult content (so I'm told :-).

Already today, some of the major adult entertainment players like Private.com and Playboy have signed their first mobile content agreements and are ready to go with media rich mobile content and there is absolutely no reason why there wont be a big uptake on those types of services on the mobile phone - both for the novelty factor and ehmmm the other factor.

There are still challenges ahead including legislation issues and protecting minors from access. Also mobile operators both feel that mobile adult entertainment content is somewhat of a "no no" for their image and of course something that they don't wont mobile customers to be conned by, like many have been with Internet "dialer-software" and fixed line telephony sex lines.

While no one actually knows exactly how much is being spent on adult content on the Internet, it is much easier to track adult content on the mobile platforms. According to Strand Consults latest reports "How to make money on mobile services" and "How to make money on mobile services" Facts & Figures, adult mobile content will grow from a total market value of US$585 million in Western Europe in 2003, to a very conservative estimate of nearly US$3 billion by the end of 2005. Even though this figure could easily be much higher, US$3 billion is well over 10% of the total value of the mobile services market.

At the end of the day, the benefits from getting the adult industry to help teach consumers just one of the many new uses and possibilities the new generation of mobile phone offer - combined with the revenue opportunities - will just be to good for the mobile operators to overlook. Right now they probably cannot even afford to overlook it.

Ains what does the BR cut you referred to mean? Do you have VOD L2 also please?

bank rate cut being talked about ..... always helps



Buy orders Sell orders
Num(%) Num Vol(%) Vol VWAP Vol Vol(%) Num Num(%)
1% (50.00%) 43 (39.55%) 5,355,415 124.34 - 125.46 8,185,911 (60.45%) 43 (50.00%)
5% (54.46%) 55 (49.47%) 8,219,243 123.96 - 125.50 8,395,911 (50.53%) 46 (45.54%)
10% (44.51%) 77 (45.76%) 9,545,899 123.47 - 126.52 11,312,823 (54.24%) 96 (55.49%)
15% (49.80%) 125 (45.06%) 12,741,319 121.67 - 128.22 15,538,109 (54.94%) 126 (50.20%)
50% (50.84%) 151 (43.84%) 12,987,025 121.45 - 129.01 16,633,416 (56.16%) 146 (49.16%)
100% (57.88%) 224 (46.87%) 14,874,796 119.23 - 129.42 16,861,528 (53.13%) 163 (42.12%)
all (57.00%) 224 (46.82%) 14,874,796 119.23 - 129.73 16,896,676 (53.18%) 169 (43.00%

L2? Thanks. Which provider do you use now for L2 & which do you feel is better?

At the moment I use ADVFN but thats not because I think they are better. To be honest they both have features that are desireable and different. I guess it will depend on how often you use the service and how irritating the constant time out messages get on advfn. I do intend to switch.


ains

ps you should take up the moneyam free offer for the day - try it out





Buy orders Sell orders
Num(%) Num Vol(%) Vol VWAP Vol Vol(%) Num Num(%)
1% (70.97%) 22 (76.63%) 2,441,558 54.18 - 54.95 744,584 (23.37%) 9 (29.03%)
5% (69.05%) 29 (70.12%) 3,180,358 54.03 - 55.20 1,355,347 (29.88%) 13 (30.95%)
10% (66.04%) 35 (64.84%) 3,369,958 53.97 - 55.62 1,827,208 (35.16%) 18 (33.96%)
15% (50.00%) 36 (55.69%) 3,569,958 53.75 - 56.79 2,840,196 (44.31%) 36 (50.00%)
50% (51.35%) 38 (60.49%) 4,347,642 52.90 - 56.79 2,840,196 (39.51%) 36 (48.65%)
100% (51.90%) 41 (60.17%) 4,367,762 52.82 - 56.94 2,890,888 (39.83%) 38 (48.10%)
all (50.62%) 41 (60.14%) 4,367,762 52.82 - 57.07 2,895,188 (39.86%) 40 (49.38%)

Is L2 weaker & will O2 withstand US selloff like VOD is? Wonder what it'll close @

Mich CS & US Homesales both beat expectations. Despite weak GDP US could end +ve.

not sure about the market ending + but OOM is holding it's own. Sector is off about the same as the market at 0.21% down ..... OOM hovering around 55p as I indicated earlier . Volumes are low at 34 million.


ains



Buy orders Sell orders
Num(%) Num Vol(%) Vol VWAP Vol Vol(%) Num Num(%)
1% (50.00%) 15 (34.81%) 2,001,249 54.47 - 55.24 3,747,379 (65.19%) 15 (50.00%)
5% (53.85%) 21 (41.24%) 2,981,042 54.31 - 55.33 4,246,604 (58.76%) 18 (46.15%)
10% (53.57%) 30 (48.28%) 4,391,777 54.00 - 55.50 4,704,404 (51.72%) 26 (46.43%)
15% (46.48%) 33 (48.70%) 4,621,777 53.81 - 55.62 4,868,708 (51.30%) 38 (53.52%)
50% (46.48%) 33 (48.70%) 4,621,777 53.81 - 55.62 4,868,708 (51.30%) 38 (53.52%)
100% (47.37%) 36 (48.55%) 4,641,897 53.73 - 55.72 4,919,400 (51.45%) 40 (52.63%)
all (46.15%) 36 (48.53%) 4,641,897 53.73 - 55.80 4,923,700 (51.47%) 42 (53.85%)

By Marian Liu

KNIGHT RIDDER NEWS SERVICE

Friday, April 25, 2003

Cell phones will carry the commercials of the future.

"It's a marketer's dream," says Nihal Mehta, creator of technology to send mass messages to cell phones.

Mehta uses SMS, or short message service, to send text messages to thousands of cell phone users about the latest music, store discounts or movie updates.

It's not spam, insists Mehta, 25, founder and CEO of Ipsh.net in San Francisco.

"These are all opt-in campaigns," he said. "It's not like we're spamming a lot of random numbers." But Mehta admits it is technically "very possible" to send mass messages to randomly dialed cell phone numbers.

Marketers contract with Mehta's company to distribute their message. Cell phone users, for example, can give their numbers to the Web site of an entertainer, such as Nelly or Madonna, if they want to receive information or updates. In Madonna's case, her label, Warner Bros., launched a campaign in advance of her album released Tuesday.

Users give their number and that of a friend and receive a text message about the album. With the push of a button on the phone, they dial in to receive a sound clip, Mehta said.

"Text messaging is going to be the next thing," said Tanya Boyden-Yarkoni, director of business development and marketing at the independent music company Giant Step.

About 59 percent of people in the United States ages 12 and older own mobile phones -- roughly 140 million people -- according to a study by Upoc Inc. and Frank Magid Associates. Of those, 27 million receive text messaging, up from 18 million in 2002.

Advertisers see the potential. Universal Records used text messaging to increase airplay for Nelly's video "Air Force Ones" on BET's viewer participation show, 106 & Park.

Mehta sent 29,178 messages to cell phone users who provided their numbers to Nelly's Web site. The message included Nelly's voice message and an option to directly call BET to vote for Nelly's video. The message got results -- 67.8 percent dialed in to listen to Nelly's voice message. Then, more than half of those fans called BET to vote for his video. The video shot to No. 3 within days.

"This technology is a great way to bridge the gap between the artist's label and the fans," says Dorothy Hui, marketing manager in new media for Universal/Motown Records. "It also gave the fans a way to easily and directly show support to the artist just by pushing a button on their cell phones."

Before founding Ipsh.net, Mehta worked on PowerPoint at Microsoft's Macintosh unit in Mountain View, Calif. As a second-generation Indian American, he said he struggled with his parents about joining the family business in potpourri, but he told his father, "You got to achieve the American Dream; I want to do that, too."

Mehta is working toward sending commercials via cell phones for movie companies, candy companies and television shows, such as "Six Feet Under," even pharmaceutical companies.

Other companies are climbing on board.

"The media landscape is extremely fragmented," says Damon Bethel, associate media director of Earthquake Media, a New York new-media advertising company.

Bethel says users often tune out older forms of advertising, such as online ads. The benefits of text messages, he says, is that users can pass it along to friends with their names attached, and "who do you trust more than your buddies? It's not a marketer telling you to look at this; it's your friend telling you."

One of the initial campaigns to introduce text messaging is through voting on the "American Idol" television show.

"We saw it as a great opportunity to introduce the idea of text messaging in the U.S. because the show is already anchored in audience participation," says Danielle Perry, a representative with AT&T. "We are on the tip of the iceberg of this for this country."

Verizon also has extended text messaging to use in "Lord of the Rings" trivia contests, voting for MVP's during half-time in basketball games and fan reaction to sitcoms such as "8 Simple Rules for Dating My Teenage Daughter."

"It's the best medium to interact with television," said Brian Levine, CEO of Mobliss, a multimedia company.

Hi Ains Whats L2 like? Did you see Times speculation regarding VOD in Sat Times?

I read the times but missed the VOD story ..... what was that about?



Buy orders Sell orders
Num(%) Num Vol(%) Vol VWAP Vol Vol(%) Num Num(%)
1% (62.96%) 17 (66.61%) 3,185,310 55.25 - 56.00 1,596,498 (33.39%) 10 (37.04%)
5% (61.76%) 21 (66.51%) 3,927,484 55.11 - 56.10 1,977,961 (33.49%) 13 (38.24%)
10% (57.69%) 30 (61.19%) 4,397,240 54.96 - 56.40 2,789,406 (38.81%) 22 (42.31%)
15% (57.14%) 40 (61.94%) 5,952,706 53.89 - 57.24 3,657,576 (38.06%) 30 (42.86%)
50% (57.75%) 41 (61.96%) 5,957,606 53.88 - 57.24 3,657,576 (38.04%) 30 (42.25%)
100% (57.89%) 44 (61.72%) 5,977,726 53.82 - 57.35 3,708,268 (38.28%) 32 (42.11%)
all (56.41%) 44 (61.69%) 5,977,726 53.82 - 57.45 3,712,568 (38.31%) 34 (43.59%)

It said VOD may bid for Cauldwell Group. However, it didn't appear in Sun Papers? What's your outlook/prediction for OOM & VOD today given US futures are still +ve? Is L2 still strong? seems to be finding resistance @55.75 Should go higher then↓.

I think we will go higher today - as you say the US futures are marginally + at this time - Smith Barney has just raised their target price from 70p to 85p and says they are attractive to private and stategic buyers.




Buy orders Sell orders
Num(%) Num Vol(%) Vol VWAP Vol Vol(%) Num Num(%)
1% (51.43%) 18 (56.18%) 2,847,903 55.21 - 55.96 2,221,370 (43.82%) 17 (48.57%)
5% (51.11%) 23 (57.50%) 3,690,077 55.06 - 56.07 2,727,833 (42.50%) 22 (48.89%)
10% (50.00%) 32 (47.82%) 4,159,833 54.91 - 56.46 4,539,278 (52.18%) 32 (50.00%)
15% (51.22%) 42 (51.38%) 5,715,299 53.81 - 57.02 5,407,448 (48.62%) 40 (48.78%)
50% (51.81%) 43 (51.41%) 5,720,199 53.80 - 57.02 5,407,448 (48.59%) 40 (48.19%)
100% (52.27%) 46 (51.26%) 5,740,319 53.74 - 57.10 5,458,140 (48.74%) 42 (47.73%)
all (51.11%) 46 (51.24%) 5,740,319 53.74 - 57.17 5,462,440 (48.76%) 44 (48.89%)

Can you type the SSSB report. Commerzbank ↑ fair value estimate to 62p from 52p and raised to accumulate from hold. US Futures have turned marginally -ve now.

I will see if I can post it later - its on Market Eye but that's a subscription service


vols are quite low at the moment but note the share price dipped again in the early morning

Just appeared on FT. I think you got the price target wrong, should be 70p vs 65p.

OOOooooooops your right ...... the font and color used made it read like 85p - blue on black rarely works well :-))


ains

Commerzbank says scope for cutting working capital and this will reduce debt + sees 43% upside based on forecasts being met



ains