Thought it about time we had a separate thread for currency plays.

Charts Currently Removed - New Ones To Follow Soon

Good Reading If You Like FX
http://www.mizuhobank.com/fin_info/exchange.html

Maybe the sale was a little premature!

LONDON, May 27 (Reuters) - Sterling sank as much as 0.4 percent against the dollar and euro on Tuesday after weak lending data added to concerns over a European election win for the anti-EU UKIP party. Dealers said the pound, little traded during a UK and U.S. holiday on Monday, was also hurt by Pfizer's PFE.N formal confirmation on Monday that it was abandoning its attempt to buy AstraZeneca AZN.L for nearly 70 billion pounds ($118 billion) "There is a mix of factors behind this morning's move," said one senior London-based bank dealer. "Certainly the failure of the AstraZeneca deal is one element. We have also probably taken a knock from the election result." UKIP, which wants Britain to leave the European Union, took almost a third of the vote in the EU polls. That prompted the party's leader to target holding the balance of power after next year's UK parliamentary election, which polls suggest might produce no outright winner. Sterling has been one of the hottest picks among major currencies since the second half of last year, buoyed by expectations an accelerating economy would prompt the Bank of England to raise interest rates next year. Some BoE officials have sought to temper such expectations in the past month and data on Tuesday showed Britain's banks last month approved the lowest number of mortgages since August last year. Sterling later recovered ground, however, to trade just 0.1 percent weaker on the day at $1.6833 and 81.08 pence per euro. DOLLAR STRUGGLES The dollar fell 0.1 percent against a basket of currencies .DXY , extending weakness since the end of last week after another retreat in U.S. bond yields. A stronger dollar was one of many investment houses' major bets at the start of this year but the U.S. economy has so far failed to deliver the comprehensive pickup that would convince the Federal Reserve it needs to raise dollar returns next year. U.S. two-year bond yields have fallen around 10 basis points in the past month despite a blip higher at the end of last week, and are less than half their British equivalents. "The dollar continues to struggle, and you can see that in the U.S. rate curve and rate differentials which haven't moved in the dollar's favour," said Stephen Gallo, European head of FX strategy with BMO in London. "If the data, starting with durables today, does not show the beginning of a more encouraging bounce back from Q1, then the dollar is going to continue to struggle," Gallo added. A raft of U.S. confidence indicators as well as orders for durable goods are due out on Tuesday, starting at 1230 GMT. The dollar lost 0.16 percent against the yen JPY=EBS to stand at 101.80 in early European trade. It fell almost 0.3 percent against the Australian dollar AUD=D4 and 0.2 percent against sterling GBP=D4 . The euro EUR=EBS held on to most of Monday's gains, largely the result of relief that the EU elections did not deliver a knockout blow to any of the bloc's more fragile, debt-ridden governments. Traders said a squeeze in short euro positions had given the euro some support overnight as it managed to stay above major technical markers such as its 200-day average against the dollar and 100-day average against the yen. "It's a sad reflection of the lack of volatility in FX markets that we now report 30 point moves as being newsworthy," said Sean Keane, a director of Triple T Consulting and formerly a markets trader at Credit Suisse. Prospects of policy action from the European Central Bank at its June 5 meeting have weighed on the common currency in the past few weeks and comments from ECB chief Mario Draghi on Monday reinforced those expectations. ID:nL6N0OC24U Reuters reported earlier this month that the ECB is preparing a package of policy options for its June meeting. It includes cuts in all its interest rates as well as targeted measures aimed at boosting lending to smaller firms.

My final currency position GBP/USD 1.67664 has just edged into profit. I'll leave this to run for now. I'm currently debating on shorting GBP/JPY and maybe placing a long position on GBP/EUR.

Cable short closed @ 1.67350 for +31.4

LONDON, May 29 (Reuters) - Sterling was little changed on Thursday after an early dip, with traders pausing during a week of heavy selling that has put the currency on track for its biggest weekly fall in over two months. Figures this week showed Britain's red-hot housing market may be cooling, prompting some of the more aggressive bets on the timing of the first Bank of England rate hike to be scaled back. That helped pull the pound back from a recent 5-1/2 year peak against the dollar and 18-month high against the euro. The selling continued early on Thursday but traders' appetite to push it lower quickly evaporated. Still, barring a continued recovery through to the end of the week, the pound will post its biggest weekly fall against the dollar, euro and on a trade-weighted basis since mid-March. "We had reached a sweet spot in terms of UK macroeconomic data and sentiment," said Neil Jones, head of hedge fund FX sales at Mizuho in London. "But the market is still fundamentally and structurally long (of pounds), so I think this weakness is only temporary," he said. Sterling fell as low as $1.6691 GBP= early on Thursday, but by 0850 GMT it had recovered to $1.6735, up slightly on the day. On Wednesday, the pound fell 0.6 percent, its biggest one-day fall against the dollar in almost four months. The pound was unchanged against the euro at 81.32 pence per euro EURGBP= . The trade-weighted value of sterling, a BoE measure of the currency's value against major global trading counterparts, was at a two-week low of 86.70 =GBP . That index is down more than half a percent this week, on for its biggest weekly decline since mid-March. Financial markets still widely expect the BoE to be the first major central bank to raise interest rates following emergency post-crisis rate cuts to virtually zero. But that may not happen this year, as some traders had started to speculate. The consensus in a Reuters poll of economists on Wednesday showed the first rate hike is likely to be some time in the second quarter of next year, although at least one rate-setter will break ranks and vote for a move by August.

Looks like its dropped back into the downside trend, some short term support at 1.6704. @ 1.6765 or above being the upper trend line I'm looking to short again.

EUR/GBP 0.81321 gone short.

LONDON, May 30 (Reuters) - Global shares steadied on Friday after hitting record highs as investors positioned cautiously on the last trading day of the month, with the market's focus on next week's European Central Bank policy meeting. The MSCI world equity index .MIWD00000PUS , which tracks shares in 45 countries, was down 0.04 percent after scaling a new lifetime high earlier in the session as investors positioned to shield themselves from any disappointment from the ECB, which is widely expected to ease policy significantly on June 5. ID:nL6N0O05MM "The market will hold at current levels until the ECB meeting next week. Should the ECB disappoint the market, then I expect a negative reaction and equities will run into a consolidation that could hold in the summer months," Christian Stocker, equity strategist at UniCredit in Munich, said. The pan-European FTSEurofirst 300 .FTEU3 was down 0.1 percent, with BNP Paribas BNPP.PA leading the index lower after a report saying the U.S. Justice Department was pushing the French bank to pay more than $10 billion to resolve a criminal probe. BNP shares fell 4.9 percent. ID:nL3N0OF455 Germany's DAX slightly outpaced the broader market after figures showed on Friday that German year-on-year retail sales grew at their strongest rate in April since June 2012 as Easter fell later this year than last. In the European bond market, benchmark Bunds were slightly lower, tracking Treasuries US10YT=RR . Ten-year U.S. debt yielded 2.477 percent, up from the U.S. close of 2.447 percent but still close to its lowest levels since last June, touched this week as markets increased bets that the Federal Reserve will not begin raising interest rates any time soon. The euro was steady at $1.3605 EUR= , not far from Thursday's three-month low of $1.3586. The dollar index, which tracks the currency against a basket of six major rivals, eased slightly to 80.462 .DXY .

LONDON, May 30 (Reuters) - Sterling recovered some ground on Friday after a week of heavy selling that has cast doubt on the UK currency's run to 5-1/2 year highs. The pound has risen more than 10 percent against a basket of currencies in the past 12 months on the back of expectations that an improving economy would force the Bank of England to raise interest rates faster than its euro zone and U.S. peers. Figures this week, however, showed Britain's housing market may be cooling, prompting some aggressive bets on the timing of the first rate hike to be scaled back and putting the currency on track for its biggest weekly fall in more than two months. Dealers say sales of the pound have also been driven by the collapse, at least for the moment, of Pfizer's PFE.N attempt to buy AstraZeneca AZN.L for nearly 70 billion pounds ($118 billion). "One thing that seems fairly clear is that any of that M&A-related flow against the pound has cooled off today," said a dealer with one London bank. "Where we go from here will depend a lot on next week's action at the ECB and then non-farm payrolls in the U.S." The pound rose just over 0.1 percent to $1.6740 and by slightly less against the euro to 81.31 pence EURGBP= . Gilt markets have also been showing signs of doubt over the broad-based nature of Britain's economic recovery, still producing little of the broader-based price pressures which would raise inflation and force the BoE to act. The yield premium paid by British government bonds over German Bunds hit its lowest in three weeks on Thursday in response. GB2YT=RR DE2YT=RR Yields rose in tandem with Bunds and U.S. Treasuries on Friday, after Federal Reserve policymaker Esther George said the Fed's eventual rate rises should be steeper than many in the market expected. ID:nL6N0OG25C The 10-year yield GB10YT=RR was last up 1.8 basis points at 2.566 percent.

EUR/GBP 0.81321 closed @ 0.81289 for +3.2. No point holding over the weekend..

June 3 (Reuters) - Sterling held steady against the dollar and fell against the euro on Tuesday, absorbing surprisingly soft UK construction data but squeezed after weak euro zone inflation triggered a bounce in the shared currency. In late trade in London the euro was up 0.3 percent on the day at 81.40 pence EURGBP= and the pound was unchanged on the day against the dollar at $1.6745 GBP= . Inflation across the 18-nation euro zone slipped to just 0.5 percent in May, increasing the likelihood of easing measures from the European Central Bank later this week and highlighting the contrast with the Bank of England, which is expected to start raising interest rates within a year. ID:nL6N0OK1ES But although below consensus, the decline wasn't a major shock after German inflation figures on Monday came in well below analysts' forecasts. Relieved that inflation wasn't even lower, traders bought the euro back and sterling suffered. "There wasn't any additional 'fear factor' introduced and there was no real surprise, given the German numbers yesterday," said Daragh Maher, senior FX strategist at HSBC in London. "The market was running short of euros, so we have squeezed higher. Also, there's a lot already in the price for sterling in terms of interest rate hike expectations," he said. Financial markets expect the BoE to begin raising rates some time in the early months of next year, in stark contrast to the ECB which will still be in easing mode, and probably at least a few months ahead of the U.S. Federal Reserve. But nascent signs of the UK housing market cooling off have tempered some of the more aggressive bets on the timing of the first rate hike, the latest being a survey on Tuesday showing that the construction sector grew in May at its slowest pace in seven months. The Markit/CIPS UK Construction Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) eased to 60.0 last month, below the 60.8 expected in a Reuters poll but still far above the 50 line that divides growth from contraction. ID:nL9N0MI020 Sterling had run up to a 5-1/2 year peak against the dollar earlier in May. Over the last year the pound has appreciated some 10 percent against a basket of currencies on the growing assumption that the improving economy and red-hot housing market will force the BoE to raise rates faster than its major peers. "The Bank will be tightening when the ECB is loosening ... but there's a somewhat dovish adjustment of UK rate expectations underway recently," HSBC's Maher said.

LONDON, June 4 (Reuters) - Sterling hit a new high for the day against the euro and pared losses against a buoyant dollar on Wednesday after UK services sector activity expanded at a faster than expected pace in May. ID:nL9N0O202G The pound climbed to $1.6730 GBP=D4 after the data from around $1.6705 beforehand, but was still down 0.15 percent on the day. The euro lost ground, hitting a low of 81.355 pence EURGBP=D4 after the survey was released, from around 81.48 pence beforehand. Financial markets expect the Bank of England to begin raising rates early next year, in stark contrast to the European Central Bank which will still be in easing mode, and probably at least a few months ahead of the U.S. Federal Reserve.

GBP/JPY 171.685 have gone short.

LONDON, June 6 (Reuters) - European stocks rose and bond yields tumbled on Friday in markets buoyed by the European Central Bank's promise of another tidal wave of deflation-dousing cash, but impending U.S. jobs data kept investors cautious. Benchmark 10-year government borrowing costs for Italy, Spain and Ireland all plunged to record lows, with the Irish yield 11 basis points below comparable U.S. borrowing costs. Stock markets rose too, with bank shares leading the way and putting the pan-European index of Europe's leading 300 shares on track for its eighth consecutive weekly gain. U.S. stock index futures SPc1 pointed to a higher open on Wall Street after May's non-farm payrolls report due at 1230 GMT. ECON There was less movement in currency markets, which swung violently on Thursday after the ECB cut interest rates - including taking deposit rates for banks below zero - and pledged hundreds of billions more euros of cheap funds for banks. ID:nL6N0OM3BH "The ECB decisions were largely in line with what the market was expecting. However, the negative deposit rate is certainly a brave move and hinting that QE (quantitative easing) is a possibility if necessary should be very welcome news," said Mark Ward, head of execution trading at Sanlam Securities. The ECB refrained from following the U.S., Japanese and British central banks in pursuing outright bond-buying. But its president, Mario Draghi, did not rule it out in the future, saying, "We aren't finished here". At 1115 GMT the FTSEurofirst 300 .FTEU3 share index was up 0.4 percent at 1,385 points, with financials up 1.0 percent .SX7P . Germany's DAX .GDAXI rose 0.3 percent to 9,981 points. On Thursday, it broke above 10,000 points for the first time. Britain's FTSE 100 .FTSE was up 0.4 percent at 6,840 points, and France's CAC 40 .FCHI up 0.5 percent at 4,560 points. U.S. JOBS UP NEXT Investors' appetite for risky assets and higher returns was most evident in euro zone peripheral bond markets, where buyers pushed yields to their lowest on record. Italian 10-year yields IT10YT=TWEB fell 18 basis points to 2.77 percent, Spanish equivalents ES10YT=TWEB were down 17 bps at 2.66 percent and Irish yields IE10YT=TWEB fell 11 bps to 2.47 percent. "The real consensus coming out of the ECB meeting is that these measures will be supportive of the (European) periphery," said Anton Heese, co-head of European interest rates strategy at Morgan Stanley. "This should be filtering through into lower funding costs in the periphery." The yield on 10-year German bonds, the benchmark for euro zone borrowing, fell 4 bps to 1.32 percent DE10YT=TWEB . Analysts at SocGen said this reflected concerns that the ECB's measures to fend off deflation might not succeed. They also pointed to the euro's sharp rally well above $1.36 EUR= from the four-month low around $1.35 immediately after the ECB statement and Draghi's news conference on Thursday. The euro was down 0.2 percent on the day round $1.3635, with traders saying major moves were unlikely as billions of dollars of options at $1.36 and $1.3650 expire later in the day, and before the U.S. jobs data. The dollar was up a shade against a basket of currencies .DXY at 80.433. Traders hunkered down ahead of the U.S. jobs report, with the median forecast showing the U.S. economy added a solid 218,000 jobs last month, down from 288,000 in April. Estimates range from 110,000 to 325,000. Richard Hunter, head of equities at Hargreaves Lansdown, said the ECB's move could soothe market jitters over a downbeat number. "There's every possibility of a sell-off should the number disappoint, but ... that could yet be short-lived," he said. Earlier in Asia, MSCI's broadest index of Asia-Pacific shares outside Japan .MIAPJ0000PUS rose 0.25 percent and Japan's Nikkei .N225 closed flat at 15,077. Yields on two-year U.S. Treasury notes were at 0.38 percent US2YT=RR after dipping 2 basis points on Thursday, while those on 10-year paper fell 1.4 bps to 2.57 percent US10YT=RR . Gold steadied at $1,251 XAU= having enjoyed its biggest gain in three weeks overnight as buyers were encouraged by the prospect of yet-lower rates for longer in the euro zone. Brent crude oil LCOc1 nudged higher to just under $109 a barrel.

GBP/JPY short 171.685 closed at 171.889 for -20.4 to free up markin requirement, no further currency positions open.

Mark Carney has warned households, companies and financial markets to prepare for an interest rate rise, saying the first increase “could happen sooner than markets currently expect”. In his first hawkish comments since becoming governor of the Bank of England almost a year ago, Mr Carney stressed on Thursday evening that the widely anticipated action by the central bank this month to cool the housing market will not be a substitute for gradual interest rate rises. Having last year guided people to expect rates to remain at the emergency level of 0.5% until 2016, financial markets currently expect the first rise in spring 2015 and the governor’s Mansion House speech to a City audience is bound to bring expectations further forward, perhaps towards the end of this year – FT.

Noting - Pound starting to slip against a basket of currencies now.

I prefer this one

The pound is still pushing higher, I await the downside.