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Coffee Heaven - A heavenly share for penny punters ? (COH)     

overgrowth - 06 Oct 2003 22:47

underground01_2.jpgA busy day in the Warsaw Underground ! Not just another coffee shop chain - this one is a brand leader and is only trading in Eastern/Central Europe (i.e. the countries recently admitted to the EU destined for substantial business growth). The company is creating new outlets at a fair old pace and take a look at their website - these are quality stores in high-profile locations like major airports, railway stations etc. Website: http://www.coffeeheaven.eu.com

APRIL 2006 TRADING UPDATE!!! Total Gross Revenues for 12 months to 31st March up 66% to £6.3M (2005: £3.8M) Lots more info. on new markets and stores click here to read the full details. Stores: 43 (up from 32) stores currently trading (Poland: 30 (up from 23), Czech Republic: 6 (Up from 2), Latvia: 7 with a further 5 units under construction including Bulgaria and sites secured in Romania (subject contract). Bulgaria & Romania are seeking to join the EU from January 2007. Sites located in key high street, shopping malls or Airport locations. Company growth target: increase number of units by at least 20 units to some 63 units by 31 March 2007. Aim being to achieve this level of growth within present Cash resources.Cash balances at 31 March 2006 were approximately £2.9M (2005: £0.7M). Debt was nil (2005: £ 2.5M): Nil Debt! Positive EBITDA: For the year ending 31 March 2006, Group EBITDA expected to be firmly positive after charging UK and new market development costs but before exceptional costs relating to the cancellation of bonds (previous Debt). Forecasts: Based on present trading conditions and current exchange rates we anticipate indicative sales of £9.3M for the year to 31 March 2007. This includes indicative sales of £0.4M from Bulgaria, which will be reported but not consolidated. From Richard Worthington (Chairman and Chief Executive): ‘The new financial year has started well. There is no doubt that the significant economic improvement in our markets is feeding through to consumer confidence and spending. The strength of the coffeeheaven brand ensures we are ideally positioned to benefit from our customers' increasing prosperity.’

Chart.aspx?Provider=Intra&Code=COH&Size=Chart.aspx?Provider=EODIntra&Code=COH&Si

overgrowth - 21 Jan 2004 21:42 - 20 of 2037

Plenty more to come with this one - just wait until Poland hits the EU in May/June :-)

roma - 22 Jan 2004 14:25 - 21 of 2037

Buys 13m sells 2m,no movement on prices? Spread a lot bigger than yesterday.
Seems the MMs are making plenty of money.

kandrews250 - 22 Jan 2004 20:35 - 22 of 2037

Have been looking at these for some time but as with the other comments I am concerned that the price may now pull back. I feel that the spread is to wide and feel that March is the time to look. I am not sure of the full potential or price target as they will be a long time building the chain. Anybody got a feeling ?

roma - 22 Jan 2004 22:17 - 23 of 2037

I can't understand,price pull back, from where? Company will take a long time to build? They already have 18 outlets,with another in the pipeline in Warsaw Airport. As Overgrown states Poland will join the EC shortly.
This will give them even more chance to expand. The shares are only 1.33p so how much chance are you taking? As usual you must DYOR and only invest, if you are willing to take a chance.Good luck in whatever you decide.

overgrowth - 22 Jan 2004 23:44 - 24 of 2037

This is a long term investment but has every chance of being a fortune builder. Still generally overlooked, anyone getting in now will either reap healthy profits if the company is bought or will be very wealthy in a couple of years time as COH continues to take over the Eastern European market.

At this price for a modest outlay you can buy blocks of 100K, which will really show some leverage as the price multiplies around the middle of the year.

roma - 27 Jan 2004 12:04 - 25 of 2037

Buyers starting to come in this morning,up 7.8%.

kandrews250 - 29 Jan 2004 18:51 - 26 of 2037

Thanks for the slight telling off roma, when I read back the comment it did sound bad. I think part of it was spitting out my dummy as I had decided to buy but thought I could hold on for a bit, no real reason, as the price was good and did not expect it to move for a while. Then the statement came out and the shares rose by 51% so I was sick. As far as the growth of the company is concerned thay are doing well. But as the business is based in Poland I find it a little awkward to judge the full potential of the coffe drinking public and the ammount thay are likely to consume. The company obviously know this and with the steady opening of the bars the model must be working. All the statements and financials look very promising and I think the joining of the EC will aid the growth. I have dtr and have taken 200k of shares to start and will add another 300k to this in due course, probably end of March.

overgrowth - 29 Jan 2004 19:09 - 27 of 2037

Here's an interesting e-mail I saw on iii:

"have just been trawling the net looking for figures of passenger traffic at the federic chopin airport. the best i could do was to look at the polish airports site ,which seems outdated to say the least.

From that site i gathered that "airside" there is ONE resturant only, there are snack bars as well but not how many.As i said the site is outdated re the passenger traffic, it quotes passenger traffic in 1998 as 3.8 MILLION.
Obviously passenger traffic would have gone up substantially since 1998.Can anyone find a more upto date figure ?.

Even at 1998 figures thats a 104958 passengers a day.

Even at these figures if they get 2.5% a day thats over 5,000.customers. at very roughly 2 a customer that 10,000 pounds a day x 365 day and thats a turnover of over 3.5 million a year.There is one terminal according to the web site and one more was being looked at .

It will be a company maker if even 50% of the above works out, i think it will.
I picked this up frm the advfn site on the discussion board , my thanks to divina the poster there, she looked at the company web site and there are development in the czech republic with a major mall developer about 2 new stores there . as always dyor
marunam"

kandrews250 - 29 Jan 2004 19:21 - 28 of 2037

Thanks for the airport info, they do seem to site the bars in good locations which is ideal for the big boys if a tkover is considered. The maths sound good on the airport bar and I would be happy to see the 50% estimate.

overgrowth - 29 Jan 2004 23:09 - 29 of 2037

Just think of the size of the company when they've rolled out 50 outlets by 2006 and have the next expansion plan on the go - this co. has all the potential of being really massive and the good thing is we're in on the bottom rung of what seems to be Jacob's ladder.

roma - 30 Jan 2004 11:34 - 30 of 2037

Thanks for the imformation. Just comfirms my beliefs that these could be a very worthwhile share. As you say overgrown,we are in at the right time.

kandrews250 - 04 Feb 2004 21:06 - 31 of 2037

well we seem to be waiting for the year end results. Hope to see another push. Overgrowth or roma any news on this one. The steady sells are getting the profit takers out, I think this could move on smallish vol if y/e report is up beat. Interested in your spin.

roma - 12 Mar 2004 12:07 - 32 of 2037

Pushing ahead with new openings, 1st store in Prague (makes 20 stores) should
open soon, two more under negotiation in Prague& Czech Republic 2nd city Brno. 3 more expected to be oened in Poland by end of this month. All buys,no sells,so far today.

ptholden - 12 Mar 2004 14:52 - 33 of 2037

ptholden - 12 Mar 2004 14:58 - 34 of 2037

Slightly off COH but coffee related. Don't know if you guys have had a look at CFN recently. I have just posted on the CFN thread, asking why there is so little interest on this site's BB in Caffe Nero? Nobody showing an interest in posting a reply though! LoL!
Same sort of business and they are having a great time. I appreciate we are looking at different scales of business, but it does show what is achievable.

Rgds

PTH

kandrews250 - 12 Mar 2004 18:08 - 35 of 2037

Might be the fact that it is base in Poland, it was a concern of mine but the upside at this price has to be positive... I hope so for my portfolios sake. The problem is the coffee shop sector in the UK has had a bad time due to saturation, do not see this as an issue but is obviously going to be a slow builder.

roma - 02 Apr 2004 11:39 - 36 of 2037

Good news today. 22nd store at Warsaw Airport now opened, meets target of 22 stores by end march 2004. In 27 months gone from 5 stores to 22 stores
57% increase in sales y/e 31/03/2004.
8 new stores to be opened in Poland in 2004.
Expects to open 18 stores in other central european countries, principally the Czech Republic by 2007.
Share price moving up.

georgeski - 03 Apr 2004 10:42 - 37 of 2037

I think with time this share could be a mortgage payer.
COH are aiming at an untouched market and if they continue expanding at this rate. One of the bigboys is going to have to buy them out if the want to expand into Eastern Europe as they will have taken all the best sites.
I don't think its going to happen overnight but at these prices its a great chance to get in whilst they are still only a penny share.
I am constantly adding on the lows to build up a 1million share stake, then i'll put it away and wait.

paragon - 04 Apr 2004 21:29 - 38 of 2037


I take a similar view georgeski.

Added 2 x 150k Friday morning.

I told a Polish mate to keep me in touch with any news.

Add, hold and wait appears to be the right strategy

kandrews250 - 27 Apr 2004 18:10 - 39 of 2037

HI oneill, I have been in on these since sub 1p and have always looked on as long term but can not see the entry will effect the price, hope it does. Still think the EOR report may move it as I hope the new bars and the sorting of the distribution network will show benefits on bottom line. I think the major longer term will be when there are 30 / 40 in the chain and bigger boys look to buy them out. Funny this share has alot to offer but does not seem to get much attention. All IMO and lets hope it has a jump soon.
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