Results out soon in August.

Broker recos look very bullish and why not on a P/E of just over 6 to 2011.....

Thomas Cook Group PLC

FORECASTS 2010 2011
Date Rec Pre-tax (�) EPS (p) DPS (p) Pre-tax (�) EPS (p) DPS (p)

Panmure Gordon
02-08-10 BUY 319.00 27.10 11.30 338.00 28.70 12.40

Exane BNP Paribas
02-08-10 BUY 116.00 26.62 10.75 319.00 28.87 11.66

Numis Securities Ltd
02-08-10 ADD 324.20 27.60 11.25 357.10 29.90 11.81

Oriel Securities
02-08-10 BUY 330.40 28.40 11.40 363.50 31.30 12.10

KBC Peel Hunt Ltd
30-07-10 BUY 301.06 25.22 10.75 313.36 26.23 10.93

WestLB
30-07-10 SELL 28.81 11.52 29.91 11.96

Shore Capital
30-07-10 HOLD 312.00 26.50 11.80 347.00 29.50 13.00

Charles Stanley Securities
15-06-10 HOLD

Evolution Securities Ltd
11-02-10 None

Investec Securities [R]
09-02-10 BUY 327.00 27.30 11.74 352.23 29.39 12.49

Fyshe Horton Finney Ltd
25-01-10 BUY

Collins Stewart
24-12-09 BUY

Nomura Research Institute
25-09-09 RED

2010 2011
Pre-tax (�) EPS (p) DPS (p) Pre-tax (�) EPS (p) DPS (p)

Consensus 316.42 26.98 11.36 342.50 29.39 11.96

1 Month Change 1.07 -0.22 0.01 3.43 -0.14 -0.14
3 Month Change -11.92 -1.09 -0.05 -11.79 -1.00 -0.44


GROWTH
2009 (A) 2010 (E) 2011 (E)

Norm. EPS 2.76% 0.38% 8.92%
DPS 14.03% 10.80% 5.26%

INVESTMENT RATIOS
2009 (A) 2010 (E) 2011 (E)

EBITDA �574.90m �589.69m �613.90m
EBIT �372.50m �420.55m �447.05m
Dividend Yield 5.38% 5.96% 6.27%
Dividend Cover 2.62x 2.38x 2.46x
PER 7.10x 7.07x 6.49x
PEG 2.57f 18.55f 0.73f
Net Asset Value PS -240.80p 224.47p 240.43p

Chart looking interesting after the recent dip - on the way up again.

Trading bounce, imo. Watching but think there is still a little more down side to come.

HARRY, you could be right, but this is a long haul flight for me so I'm happy to wait. I think the Board shake-up was just what was needed here. Harriet Green has an impressive CV.

From The Independent;

It has flogged stakes in its Indian business, Spanish and Belgium hotels and some of its aircraft fleet. But analysts reckon its insurance business could be next on the block for leisure group Thomas Cook. A note from Exane BNP Paribas said the holiday group still owns some valuable assets, and highlighted its insurance division, White Horse, and its 6 per cent stake in Nats, the air traffic control service, as likely sale fodder. Exane thinks the assets could raise another £160m.


Exane upgraded the stock from underperform to neutral, with an increase in the target price to 25p from 15p. Analysts think its restructuring "is well on track", and the newly appointed management are due to "unveil further costs reduction and a long-term strategy on 28 November".

The note helped its shares to book gains of 1.75p to 21.25p. Exane did warn that the "mass-market tour operating industry remains fundamentally unattractive", and said the stock remains a risky call, but thinks the "risk/reward has become more attractive and some of our concerns are dissipating".

Exane's analysts are the latest to see a ray of sunlight from the tour operator. Last month Nomura upgraded its share price target.

Friday 02nd November 2012
Thomas Cook named as UK's favourite holiday company


Holidaymakers have given a huge vote of confidence to ailing tour operator Thomas Cook which was named last night as the public's favourite travel company in four separate categories.


The cash-strapped operator, which is going through a tumultuous restructure, was named Best All Inclusive Tour Operator, Best Weddings & Honeymoons Tour Operator (Thomas Cook Signature), Best Ski & Winter Sport Tour Operator (Thomas Cook Sport) and Best Tour Operator to East & Central Asia (Thomas Cook Signature).


First Choice picked up three awards, as did Virgin Holidays.


The British Travel Awards, the only industry accolades voted for by members of the public, were presented at a glitzy ceremony hosted by actor and comedian Hugh Dennis in London, attended by more than 1,000 guests from the travel industry.

http://www.travelweekly.co.uk/Articles/2012/11/06/42172/city+insider+signs+of+hope+for+2013+trading.html

Large early buy gone through at 22p. Final results in just over two weeks.

http://www.thisismoney.co.uk/money/investing/article-2231744/Five-hot-stocks-boost-portfolio-winter.html

Customers are my obsession, Cook boss tells CBI


By Lee Hayhurst | Nov 19, 2012 14:11PM GMT



New Thomas Cook boss Harriet Green has signalled a return to the operator’s founding principal of inspiring the British public to travel overseas by exploiting latest technology.

In her first major speaking engagement since becoming chief executive, she told today's CBI Conference in London how she had been struck by the power of the Thomas Cook brand.

Just 16 weeks into the new role, she divulged nothing of a turnaround plan being worked on for Cook, but said an obsession with knowing the customer would be driven by technology.

She said brand, innovation and differentiation, having the right business infrastructure in the UK and an obsession with customers were driving mantras.

On the last point Green said “all roads lead to technology”.

She said success stemmed from “how you make the customer feel in terms of what you have committed to do, in igniting their passions and creating their dreams”.

Green gave a simple example of what she meant, telling the audience that when she came in to her role she was told that Cook’s customer base was split evenly between men and women.

But she said a deeper analysis of the data found that 72% of the customers who make the travel buying decision were actually women.

“Is that important for our business? I do not know, but I know that knowing the customer is key,” she said.

Green said Cook’s mission was to open up possibilities to customers.

She pointed out that despite the downturn seeing disposable incomes drop 5% in the last 18 months, 46% of British customers intend to take some form of foreign holiday in the next year.

This equates to 22 million potential customers. “It would seem it’s absolutely critical to bring the world to people on their phones, on their TVs, on the web.

“We have to bring the world of possibilities, affordably and powerfully, to them.

“It’s bringing this information, this world absolutely to their fingertips and efficiently providing them with the opportunity to travel, explore and adventure, as Thomas Cook originally intended them to do.”

Green, who was speaking as part of a panel discussion on ‘winning business in a changing world’, said she had experience of running business on four continents.

She said innovation did not always have to come from a technical engineering advance but could be about how firms create a proposition that was “deeply compelling” for the customer.

Having heard earlier addresses from Prime Minister David Cameron and business secretary Vince Cable, Green said she welcomes the government’s sense of urgency.

She said: “I get a sense of incredible joined up positivity between government and business and a sense of real urgency and, as someone who is usually brought in to transform things, that urgency absolutely must happen.”

Discussing the challenge of recruiting the right talent, Green said global businesses needed to make sure their senior teams reflected the kind of people they want to employ.

“If your senior team looks like people you are trying to hire, in that it’s diverse in terms of ethnicity and gender, you are much more likely to attract the talent than if you have an array of a particular type of suits.

“Having teams that make people say they are my role models, having different people in the senior team that people globally can relate to , that’s very powerful in attracting talent.”

Beginning to warm up before the results next Wednesday. Chart turning bullish. Shorters running for cover?

Fasten the seat belts, we're on an early morning flight!

Investec just raised the target price from 25p to 40p ahead of the results on Wednesday.

Not invested here but have taken a keen interest in this company as I would like it to turn around.

In the Financial Mail this Sunday - Thomas Cook chief executive Harriet Green is to outline this week how she plans to turn around the tour operator, when the firm announces that its losses have widened to an estimated £414.3 million.
City analysts expect Thomas Cook to say that its full-year pre-tax losses have widened from £398.2 million due to reorganisation costs, tough trading conditions and one of charges against its North American and Western European divisions. It also suffered disappointing sales of its Olympic Games packages.
It is understood that the key themes Green will expand upon are the need to control costs and improve customer service and the steps the company will take to increase its online sales.
Thomas Cook has been struggling with its high debts and the tough trading enviroment. Last December it received a £200 million emergency loan from its lenders.

Going to be interesting to see how the markets react on Wednesday. Panmure Gordon values this share at 7p and Investec says 40p. Bears say the company is going down the plughole and the bulls say the company is on the road to recovery.

Could go either way, but I suppose it depends on what realistic expectations are. Surely no one is expecting a great deal, so possibly better to be long than short? Not happy to be in, but watching with interest.

Final Results

Net debt reduced through asset disposals and working capital management:

- Net debt reduced by £103m (from £891m to £788m);

- Liquidity headroom at circa £1bn, £160m higher than prior year;

· Gross profit of £2.1bn, with resilient gross margin despite input cost pressures; underlying profit from operations 49% lower at £156m, in line with expectations but significantly impacted by £110m in higher fuel costs;

· Fourth quarter financial performance in line with the same period last year, reflecting a significant improvement on the first three quarters of the year;

· Loss for the year of £590m, including previously disclosed goodwill and other write-downs of £369m and business repositioning costs of £81m;

· Good current trading, with Summer 12 ending strongly and Winter 12/13 trading off to a good start in our major markets, with bookings ahead of committed capacity and improvements in pricing; our capacity strategy will reduce operating risk in an uncertain consumer environment as the Group implements its Business Transformation;

· Building on a stable platform, the Business Transformation has begun and is focused on:

- Changes in organisational structure and key management in order to break down historic silos, energise our people and implement cultural change;

- Driving efficiency through global procurement, centralised hotel purchasing and consolidation to reduce fixed and overhead costs and improve working capital: over £100m of annual cost benefits and £50m of incremental working capital improvements already identified and significant further opportunities to come; and

- Developing an online centre of excellence with powerful channels tailored to local markets by leveraging the latest technology to deliver true omni-channel distribution.



http://www.moneyam.com/action/news/showArticle?id=4492788

RNS Number : 1581S

28 November 2012

Thomas Cook Group plc

Audited results for the year ended 30 September 2012

NET DEBT REDUCED

BUSINESS TRANSFORMATION UNDERWAY

NEW FOCUS ON EFFICIENCIES AND RIGOROUS EXECUTION

Year ended 30/09/12 Year ended 30/09/11
GBPm (unless otherwise stated) Underlying Statutory Underlying Statutory


Revenue 9,491 9,491 9,809 9,809
Gross profit 2,070 2,075 2,160 2,098
Profit/(loss) from operations(1) 156 (319) 304 (267)
(Loss)/profit for the year (37) (590) 103 (518)
(Loss)/earnings per share (p) (3.7) (67.2) 11.7 (60.7)
Net debt 788 788 891 891

------------------------ ----------- ---------- ----------- ----------

(1) Underlying profit from operations is considered by management to give a fairer view of the year on year comparison of trading performance and is defined as earnings before interest and tax, excluding all separately disclosed items. It also excludes our share of the results of associates and joint venture and net investment income.


-- Net debt reduced through asset disposals and working capital management:

- Net debt reduced by GBP103m (from GBP891m to GBP788m);

- Liquidity headroom at circa GBP1bn, GBP160m higher than prior year;

-- Gross profit of GBP2.1bn, with resilient gross margin despite input cost pressures; underlying profit from operations 49% lower at GBP156m, in line with expectations but significantly impacted by GBP110m in higher fuel costs;

-- Fourth quarter financial performance in line with the same period last year, reflecting a significant improvement on the first three quarters of the year;

-- Loss for the year of GBP590m, including previously disclosed goodwill and other write-downs of GBP369m and business repositioning costs of GBP81m;

-- Good current trading, with Summer 12 ending strongly and Winter 12/13 trading off to a good start in our major markets, with bookings ahead of committed capacity and improvements in pricing; our capacity strategy will reduce operating risk in an uncertain consumer environment as the Group implements its Business Transformation;
-- Building on a stable platform, the Business Transformation has begun and is focused on:
- Changes in organisational structure and key management in order to break down historic silos, energise our people and implement cultural change;

- Driving efficiency through global procurement, centralised hotel purchasing and consolidation to reduce fixed and overhead costs and improve working capital: over GBP100m of annual cost benefits and GBP50m of incremental working capital improvements already identified and significant further opportunities to come; and

- Developing an online centre of excellence with powerful channels tailored to local markets by leveraging the latest technology to deliver true omni-channel distribution.

Harriet Green, Group Chief Executive, Thomas Cook Group plc said:

"In 2012 over 23 million customers enjoyed their holidays with us, 50% of whom went on an independent or flexible holiday. Through building on our core product strengths to further improve our proposition with new and different products, we have a significant opportunity to unlock the full potential of our brands and attract more customers. As we develop our Business Transformation plans we will continue to place our customers and employees at the very centre of our business. Through leveraging existing best practice and by focusing on efficiency, harnessing the power of technology and delivering on our commitments we are addressing the most immediate challenges facing the Group and creating a platform for future growth.

"These results reflect the major issues that Thomas Cook faced last year, but they mask the material improvement that we made in the fourth quarter. Our brand has demonstrated its strength by recovering all the ground lost during last year's difficulties and we have identified significant further efficiency improvements. The year ahead is the initial stage in this recovery and as we embark upon our first year of Business Transformation, we are optimistic about the future and look forward to updating you on our full plans and additional financial benefits in the spring of 2013."

Director buy ( Harriet Green) 500,000 at 23p.

City praises Thomas Cook CEO's 'aggressive start'


Thomas Cook's new group chief executive Harriet Green appears to have done enough to satisfy the City that she is capable of rescuing the beleaguered tour operation since she took to the helm four months ago.


Although the group today announced a further loss of £590m in the financial year to the end of September, analysts welcomed Green's 'suitably aggressive start' after she revealed strong current trading and outlined a further £100m of cost cuts (see earlier story).


Nomura said investors should be reassured by the three elements of the 'Business Transformation' that Green revealed today, which included the additional cost savings, management changes and improvements to product and distribution channels.


It said winter trading was encouraging, especially as prices are up 5% year on year and sales are ahead of the significant capacity cuts.


"Overall, an encouraging start for the new CEO," added Matt Smith, managing director of analysts Morgan Stanley. "For those looking for self help stories in 2013, Thomas Cook should be on the radar here."


However, Smith suggested that Thomas Cook would still need to raise more equity, but went on, "if management can continue to restructure the cost base, and capacity in the market remains tight, the shares still have significant upside potential."


A third analyst, Investec, said: "With net debt down to more manageable levels (it was reduced 12% year on year), and a supportive banking syndicate, we think Thomas Cook now has the platform and management to deliver the required cost and business changes to thrive."


By Linsey McNeill


Wednesday, November 28, 2012

More directors buys announced this morning;

Meysman 100k @ 24.573
Verluyten 100k @ 23
Debus 100k @ 23
Fankhauser 170k @ 23.25