How would you like to trade a market where you get large regular price swings every 10 minutes in the afternoon, seven days a week. A
market where all prices are set purely by supply and demand, few transaction costs, no middle men and you only pay commission if you win? Where you can freely act as a market maker and where you have direct market access and where you can create a spread for others to take?

Betfair has revolutionised the betting market and created an open platform for exchanging risk on sports events. This market is now viewed much more like a traditional financial risk market than an old fashioned betting market. Smart users have realised that there are huge opportunities on Betfair because they can buy and sell risk in much the same way they would in a normal financial market but without the burden of cost or the restricted access that is usually associated with traditional financial markets.

Click here to learn more

Fundy, Bakko, Sorry to hear about Luton. I think most would have expected a better performance from Luton. The stats seem to indicate that Barnsley had the edge but not by 3 to 1. Missed penalty as well by the look of it. I've taken the Easter weekend off.

Scrip

luton should have been 3 or 4 in front before barnsley scored but ho hum

anyone on the u21 game

0-0 at half time, 6 mins into second half england 2-1 up having gone 1-0 down and missed a 1 on 1 with the keeper

Have a go at the boat race this weekend. Was a profitable event for me last year. I am already green on it having made a book for the event.

From http://www.timesonline.co.uk/article/0,,2095-1542939,00.html

March 27, 2005

Betfair pair odds on for 700m float
Mark Kleinman and Matthew Goodman

BETFAIR, the controversial online betting exchange, is exploring a potential 700m stock-market float that would land its two co-founders fortunes of more than 100m each and create windfalls for dozens more shareholders.
The company, chaired by former BP and Railtrack boss Sir Robert Horton, has appointed NM Rothschild, the investment bank, to advise on its strategic options, including a flotation, sale or refinancing. A float is believed to be the preferred option, but a definitive timetable has yet to be established.

Last week, in a sign that the business is being prepared for a float, Betfair bolstered its board with the appointment of Yahoo! executive Fru Hazlitt as a non-executive director.

A sale or float at 700m would hand instant windfalls of more than 100m each to Betfairs co-founders Andrew Black, a former City trader, and Edward Wray, a one-time investment banker. They each own about 15% of the business, founded only five years ago. An exit would also make several hundred thousand pounds for a string of individual Betfair investors. Among those in line for payouts if the company completes a float or sale are Josh Hannah and Vince Monical, who sold their Flutter.com business to Betfair in 2001.

Betfair has been one of Britains greatest dotcom success stories and has captured an estimated 90% of the UK betting-exchange market. It had revenues last year of 66.7m and made pre-tax profits of 13.3m.

Exchanges work differently from traditional bookmakers. They do not take bets, but match up people wanting to gamble on a particular sporting event, such as a horse race. Acting as middlemen, they cut out the need to go to a regular bookmaker.

Betfair then takes a commission as a fee for the match-up facility. The service has allowed punters to get more generous odds than they would be given by a regular bookie.

Black came up with the idea for the business while working as a computer programmer at GCHQ in the late 1990s. He set out with Wray, to persuade friends and other small investors to back the venture.

But Betfair has attracted strong criticism from traditional bookmakers, who argue that betting exchanges make it easier for horse races to be fixed because they allow punters, in effect, to back horses to lose.

Betfairs rise to prominence has coincided with the stellar growth of the gambling industry, which is now worth an estimated 8 billion in Britain.

That growth has prompted a rash of companies to attempt to float on the London stock market. Two of the latest to try to go public are VIP Management Services, one of the worlds top 20 online gambling groups, and Event Data Correlation (EDC).

VIP is understood to be in early-stage talks about reversing into Leisure & Gaming, an AIM-quoted cash shell. Separately, Global Gaming Technologies, an AIM-quoted cash shell, is to buy EDC for about 15m. EDC has developed software that monitors betting exchanges in real time, identifies price discrepancies and then undertakes trades.

Evening all

nice of Mexico to score a second before i had time to green up :-)

had a bad afternoon on the horses today but the footie looking better

Scrip

a question which you may have already covered but i would appreciate you re-iterating if you have.

I am a little confused with position sizing with regards to horses versus football. I am comfortable with the stakes i use on the horses but feel i am probably using too large a stake relatively on the football.

Taking a simple example of where on the horses i am looking for 1 per tick - ie my stake is 100 if the horse is priced less than 2.0, what stake size should i be looking to use if i am backing a home favourite in the football with odds of say 1.8 prior to kick-off?

Also, do you vary the amount you use to back in the football to keep a consistent return ie do you back for a larger stake a team at 1.4 than a team at 1.8?

Also, how are you getting on with your model that predicts the price changes in the football - does it need testing???

TIA

Betfair hanging again this afternoon - i see they are doing more updates tomorrow! now cant get into AB Pro at all and betfair is updating intermittently - time to turn it off and go out for a drink

England @ 1.05. With their ability to make "easy" games quite difficult, is it worth a small lay?

Risky to me kajman

Azerbythingymejig let in 8 at the weekend against poland - cant see the price drifting in the first 20 minutes even if england dont score

Go for it kajman England won't lose

if england wont lose why lay copper?

Sorry i thought you was gonna back em with a big wager!! Doh!!

No, a small amount to lay. Just a gamble that would pay nicely if England fail to dominate in the first half.

Backed England on 'unquoted score' (I think that means England has got to score more than 4 goals) @ 1.7.

D

Greetings all, I have quiet as I have been very busy this week and with the kids at home its been a mare. Will respond to some questions later. Any how, my views on the match. Looked at the stats and plugged them into my model.

1.04 England to win is the right price, 40's for the draw and 60's for the away win. 0-0 about 80's. Over 2.5 goals should be trading around 1.23

Decay for the match if no score on England

15 Mins - 1.05
30 Mins - 1.09
45 Mins - 1.16

Azers price will also drift but then start to come in. The crossover point is around 60 mins. The draw will come in most if there is no score.

Should Azer be 1-0 up at half time you could see the price coming in to single digits. Much depends on the first half performance of course.

Deigo four or more goals should see you home.

looks a reasonable bet - only concern would be sven saying he'll be happy with a 1-0 win!!!

engalnd half time/full time at 1.17 looks good value to me

also looking at first goal odds - 0-10 mins 3.55, 10-20 mins 3.85 which equates to approx 2.35 for 0-20 mins - surely we should be odds on to score inside 20 minutes shouldnt we?

Edit - my maths is garbage again - works out at about 1.9 for first 20 mins - far more what i expected!!! still reasonable value?

Around 25 mins on average for first goal according to the stats.

Just remember San Marino!