How would you like to trade a market where you get large regular price swings every 10 minutes in the afternoon, seven days a week. A
market where all prices are set purely by supply and demand, few transaction costs, no middle men and you only pay commission if you win? Where you can freely act as a market maker and where you have direct market access and where you can create a spread for others to take?

Betfair has revolutionised the betting market and created an open platform for exchanging risk on sports events. This market is now viewed much more like a traditional financial risk market than an old fashioned betting market. Smart users have realised that there are huge opportunities on Betfair because they can buy and sell risk in much the same way they would in a normal financial market but without the burden of cost or the restricted access that is usually associated with traditional financial markets.

Click here to learn more

Sorry i thought you was gonna back em with a big wager!! Doh!!

No, a small amount to lay. Just a gamble that would pay nicely if England fail to dominate in the first half.

Backed England on 'unquoted score' (I think that means England has got to score more than 4 goals) @ 1.7.

D

Greetings all, I have quiet as I have been very busy this week and with the kids at home its been a mare. Will respond to some questions later. Any how, my views on the match. Looked at the stats and plugged them into my model.

1.04 England to win is the right price, 40's for the draw and 60's for the away win. 0-0 about 80's. Over 2.5 goals should be trading around 1.23

Decay for the match if no score on England

15 Mins - 1.05
30 Mins - 1.09
45 Mins - 1.16

Azers price will also drift but then start to come in. The crossover point is around 60 mins. The draw will come in most if there is no score.

Should Azer be 1-0 up at half time you could see the price coming in to single digits. Much depends on the first half performance of course.

Deigo four or more goals should see you home.

looks a reasonable bet - only concern would be sven saying he'll be happy with a 1-0 win!!!

engalnd half time/full time at 1.17 looks good value to me

also looking at first goal odds - 0-10 mins 3.55, 10-20 mins 3.85 which equates to approx 2.35 for 0-20 mins - surely we should be odds on to score inside 20 minutes shouldnt we?

Edit - my maths is garbage again - works out at about 1.9 for first 20 mins - far more what i expected!!! still reasonable value?

Around 25 mins on average for first goal according to the stats.

Just remember San Marino!

Seven goals or more market trading a 5.0, that's a daft price IMHO. Even with such a mismatch I reckon the real odds are vastly different from 4-1.

In fact I think I will lay it, not saying it wont come in but on average if you take a position like this you will end up quids in big time. I'll cover elsewhere probably there is enough margin to do it.

Evening scrip

are you trading any of the other matches?

I'll be on as many as possible. I can't see Austria losing to Wales.

likwise - though they can be a bit defensive minded so not expecting an early goal - will wait and watch

greece and italy both look sure things but at skinny odds

I think Italy will come through but I fancy opposing Greece. A sort of pairs trade I guess?

wales unlucky not to take the lead

your siding with albania?

greece in front :-)

Can I change my mind?

Really nothing more than to add some interest really that one.