This ones a heck of a specualive investment but it seems that the institutions are willing to stomp up the cash to back it in the long term.

Heres the latest news from Killik stocbrokers on the company..........

MEDICAL MARKETING Joint Venture

We recently highlighted Medical Marketing (MMG) as worthy of attention. The company, in which I have a personal share holding, has this morning announced the formation of a joint venture, Genvax, to develop a novel DNA vaccine platform technology.

Human trials have been underway since 2001 in areas such as Lymphoma and Myeloma but the technology has broad applications in cancer, viral and bacterial infections (hence the term platform). The technology works on boosting the immune system by teaching it to identify hard to recognise cancer proteins as foreign and destroy them. Early results from the 25 patient trial in lymphoma are encouraging and evaluation of the result is expected by March 2005. Successful results should mean big pharmaceutical groups will start to take financial and commercial interests around that time.

This looks to be the first of a series of announcements due from Medical Marketing as it has a range of predominantly cancer trials moving into the clinical stage. (news flow could push the price higher)

The stock has made good progress in recent sessions up to the mid-80p level where the company is valued at just under 40 million. ENDS.

Please DYOR

cheers GF.

mitzy indeed you could present an argument based on the DCF (Discounted Cash Flow) or the NPV (Net Present Value) to support 1000p.
The reality is that none of the drugs have started Phase IIb (to my knowledge) so all are quite some way off market and revenue producing.
There is also the argument that the two main price drivers, Genvax and Oncosense are based on platform technologies therfore if 1 drug on the platform fails, there is a good chance the others will fail.
Therefore you cannot really value each vaccine or RU compound separatley.
Hence increased risk.
This works conversely in that if the Lymphoma vaccine is proven to be groundbreaking, there is a good chance the other 9 vaccines will be groundbreaking too.

This is a must read. A bit long but try it. From the other side.

BennytheBall - 11 Mar'06 - 20:47 - 7029 of 7043


Actually, no... I'll summarise it.

It was a report of some thinking on the subject of MMG's valuation and possible exit strategies the current major shareholders were likely to have in mind. The thinking went along the following lines:

1. Valuation
There are only two meaningful methods of valuing a company like MMG, by calculating the NPV or by comparison with peers.

1.1. The NPV valuation route
The NPV takes into account the market size, risk and the likely deals with big pharma.

Market size
It's worth emphasising that MMG's main two areas of focus are both platform technologies.

Each ruthenium compound shows a different range of activities and targets a specific cancer type, hence why they appear to be so much better than the platinum drugs. While MMG probably won't progress all 8000 compounds to the clinic, there are at least 15 excellent first generation compounds and they are working on the second generation.

The Genvax vaccines are similarly bespoke, including vaccines for lymphoma, myeloma, prostate, colon (and, as we learnt last week), lung, stomach, osophageal and neck. There are also non-bespoke ones for CMV, flu' and a serious bacterial infection.

It is quite rare to come up with a whole new way of treating a range of diseases, unless you equate each of MMG's platforms to the emergence, 60 years ago, of penicillin or tetracycline antibiotics, or perhaps the beta-blockers for hypertension or the benzodiazepines for anxiety in the 60's (all breakthroughs that were shared by several companies).

Most major drug companies today became big on the back of one blockbuster - Glaxo with Zantac and SmithKline Beecham with Tagamet, both revolutionary drugs in their day as they cured ulcers rather than requiring surgery. MMG's main two areas of focus are both platform technologies.

However, all these are sketches of the territory rather than hard figures. I know M25 has done some more specific figures on this. I'd love to see his calcs.

Risk
NPV's generally assume a 95% risk with pre-clinical products and a 35% risk at phase II. This means that of late, the valuation of ten products in clinical trials have increased from 5% to 65% of x billion.

Not really risk in the NPV sense, but typically the cut to universities MMG have/had arrangements with is minimal since MMG pay for patent costs and fund all the development. However there's an even better situation with Genvax, since the charities are continuing to fund the current trials.

Likely deals
Assuming that MMG license on to a major marketing partner, they could
expect a signature fee, collaborations fees, milestone fees, and royalties
at least in keeping with the industry average of 50%. Here are some recent examples of deals to illustrate the possible total value of such fees and royalties combined.

- The Bristol Myers-Imclone deal was worth a total of $2 BILLION for Erbitrux, a single anti-cancer, at phase III.
- Antisoma did a $500 million deal with Roche for a product at phase II
- There have been several others worth around $600 million at that stage.
- Merck did a single product deal late last year for a product in phase I and the package was worth $199 million.
- Astra Zeneca paid $100 million two years ago for an anti-cancer product not yet in the clinic.

Any existing NPV valuations?
The only broker with an NPV on MMI is Insinger (see link above, in the header of the bb). Insinger worked out an NPV prior to MMG's announcements about colon cancer, flu' and bacterial infections etc. Also before the recent news that there are actually ten Genvax products in the clinic. Insinger's calculations gave a price of 275p per share (= mc of 160 million).

This is still a bit low in comparison to MMG's peers. On the other hand, US valuations generally are higher than UK's. Then again, MMG have now added to the clinical portfolio. Significantly.

1.2/ Valuation by peer group analysis

Peer company analysis
There are companies out there at a similar stage of development but apparently none with as large a portfolio or one that has such market potential as MMG's. The nearest are a few companies in the USA, which have market caps of around $1 billion. USA companies are valued much more highly than UK ones and they tend to have more cash on their balance sheets. Adjusting for these, and for currency, it would be easy to justify a market cap of 400 million, which gives a share price of around 690p.

Pipeline analysis
Another way of arriving at a peer comparison is to find a company with as large a pipeline at a similar stage and, as these are all major pharmaceutical companies, take out the effect of current sales (as MMG hardly have any).

The valuation of Astra-Zeneca's portfolio of anti-cancer drugs in the clinic is said by analysts to contribute 500 million to AZ's overall value. It is thought that MMG might have twice as many drugs in the clinic as that.



2/ Exits

The major shareholders appear to believe that the company is potentially worth several billion. None of them need to sell so a hostile bid is unlikely to succeed unless it was in keeping with the valuations above, eg 2b. However, they might be open to a big company taking a minority stake with an option to buy the company out a later date, cf the recent Chiron and Novartis deal. Even that sort of deal would have to be worth a lot up-front, adding multiples to the share price, since MMG would have to price in the fact that getting into bed with one big company would rule out any deals with their rivals.

Good read that MS.

cheers GF.

Thanks GF. Here's another one for you.

Optimist at large - 13 Mar'06 - 08:49 - 7036 of 7043


From the BBC this morning:

Vaccines 'may block many cancers'

Vaccines could combat viruses that trigger cancer
Anti-viral vaccines have the potential to prevent one in ten cases of cancer in Britain, and as many as 25% in the developing world, a report says.
The Cancer Research UK study estimates there are more than 1.8 million new cases of virus-associated cancer world-wide each year.

The charity says just a handful of viruses are to blame.

It says greater investment in new vaccines could be a highly productive way to combat cancer.

Cancers linked to infection with particular viruses include:


Cervix
Stomach
Liver
Nasopharyngeal carcinoma (nasal passages)
Lymphomas
Leukaemia
The report stresses that only a small proportion of people infected with viruses linked to cancer go on to develop the disease.

As today we successfully vaccinate against infectious diseases so we shall soon be able to vaccinate against certain types of cancer

Professor John Toy

However, it estimates that as many as 18% of new cases of cancer each year are linked to viral infections.

Lead researcher Professor Alan Rickinson, from the University of Birmingham, said: "Studying the association between infectious agents and human cancers is extremely important because, in such cases, infection represents one defined link in the chain of events leading to cancer development.

"Knowing this helps us to trace other links in the chain and to understand how the whole chain fits together.

"More importantly, if we can break the chain by preventing the infection through vaccination, then we can prevent the cancer developing."

Vaccine development is most well advanced in the case of cervical cancer, which is largely caused by infection with the human papilloma virus (HPV).

Rival products

Rival drug companies are battling to bring products to market, with the expectation that they could prevent around 70% of all cases of the disease.

However, Dr Anne Szarewski, clinical consultant at Cancer Research UK, said there was still work to be done.

"We don't know yet how long immunity will last, and if booster vaccines will be required.

"The longest period for which women have been followed up after an HPV vaccine trial has been four years."

A vaccine has also been developed for the Hepatitis B virus which is linked to liver cancer.

No vaccines have yet been developed to help combat stomach cancer, nasopharyngeal carcinoma and the lymphomas and leukaemias associated with infections.

Professor John Toy, medical director of Cancer Research UK, said it was important people understood it was not possible to "catch" cancer, in the same way as a cold or flu virus.

But he added: "As today we successfully vaccinate against infectious diseases so we shall soon be able to vaccinate against certain types of cancer."

From the BBC aswell, Excelent. Only time now. As Evil got out yet???????????

cheers GF.

No not yet GF. He's got to be monitoring the situation. I don't know at what price he opened his short so can't tell if he is up or down. I have to say this is one stock I would not want to be short of, even if, at this moment in time it's still a bit " blue sky". With this, it can change at a moments notice, as we all remember last year when it went against us.

LOL
MS

I dont think hes very much in profit mickey.

Anyway a week off for me tomorrow watching the racing from Cheltnam aslong as weather is ok, if not in the local all week, 24/24, oh bliss........... on the piss.........

will not miss ............... her indoors.

cheers GF.

I thought his entry point was around the 250p mark.

He went in a few times dont forget though Pete.

cheers GF.

Hello GF and Mickey things really are looking good today ,buys starting to go through at 1.91.
I thought investor sentiment might be hurt today given the news about six men being taken seriously ill during clinical trials run by Parexel for a drug to treat chronic inflammatory conditions and leukaemia.

Yes I heard about that. Just goes to show how cutting edge these drugs are, though nothing to do with us. Let's hope we get some news soon.

MS

Its been a while since we were at these levels,lets hope there is a lot more to come.

The spreadbet co's seem fully stocked which indicates little or no news could trigger the freefall we had this time last year as the tight stop losses get hit one after the other all the way down to the 110-130 levels.

Me, well I'm hopeful that 1 year on from the Lymphoma trial, we will have news that the immune response has been improved even further by a bit more tweaking.
Also keen to get a bit more detail on the prostate cancer trial which has a reported endpoint of Feb/Mar 2006(I think).
Not sure if we'll hear anything on the flu vaccines as Dr Ottensmeier has been billed as talking about cancer vaccine trials.

Was there a presentation today? If so anyone heard any news.

MS

From the other place.

el magnifico - 15 Mar'06 - 15:39 - 7074 of 7074


I recall that MMI issued its "MMI announces cancer vaccines update" RNS on 22nd March 2005, following Dr Stevenson's presentation at DNA Vaccines Forum on 18th March 2005.

So I would not be disappointed by the absence of an RNS tomorrow, although I have a feeling that Cancer Research UK / Leukaemia Research Foundation may be building up to a biggie on GenVax soon.

We are one year further down the trials path and the MMI share price is unchanged. Risk / reward extremely favourable.

IMHO the price action, now squeezing above the September 2005 1.85 top, together with the stealthy accumulation volume characteristics suggest that you won't be able to get 'em much cheaper than this.

el

DNA Vaccines Forum 16th and 17th March

Presentation 16.20 p.m

Freda Stevenson Professor of Immunology (Tenovus Laboratory University of Southampton)

Advancements In Cancer Research.

1) Therapeutic applications of DNA Fusion Vaccines


2) Focus on design and delivery

3)Clinical testing in human patients.

Maybe some good news Friday or early next week
Fingers crossed.

Looking good to me.

MS

After checking todays RNS I have topped up. Looking very good indeed, especialy David Bests comments if you read between the lines.

More good news in the RNS today.

cheers GF.

Just got in and have seen the good news,it came a bit sooner than i expected .

EK has got to get out now surely!