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How to profit from Betting Exchanges (BEX)     

Scripophilist - 27 Oct 2004 23:40


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How would you like to trade a market where you get large regular price swings every 10 minutes in the afternoon, seven days a week. A
market where all prices are set purely by supply and demand, few transaction costs, no middle men and you only pay commission if you win? Where you can freely act as a market maker and where you have direct market access and where you can create a spread for others to take?

Betfair has revolutionised the betting market and created an open platform for exchanging risk on sports events. This market is now viewed much more like a traditional financial risk market than an old fashioned betting market. Smart users have realised that there are huge opportunities on Betfair because they can buy and sell risk in much the same way they would in a normal financial market but without the burden of cost or the restricted access that is usually associated with traditional financial markets.

Click here to learn more


Scripophilist - 30 Mar 2005 21:26 - 2070 of 10502

Thank you Austria, nipped in for a few quid at the end.

Scripophilist - 30 Mar 2005 21:37 - 2071 of 10502

Another comprehensive thrashing by England then!! LOL!!

Fundamentalist - 30 Mar 2005 21:54 - 2072 of 10502

Got my fingers burnt on over 2.5 goals, gave up my losses from elsewhere on the night - ho hum

kajman - 30 Mar 2005 22:12 - 2073 of 10502

Laying England at 1.05 wasn't such a good idea was it? When I saw all of their shots in the first 10 minutes I "redded up" at 1.03 for a small loss.

But I covered that and more by laying 5+ goals, it never looked like being a high scoring match.

Scripophilist - 30 Mar 2005 22:58 - 2074 of 10502

"Got my fingers burnt on over 2.5 goals, gave up my losses from elsewhere on the night - ho hum"

Easily done, you would have thought at least three, at least.

Bullshare - 31 Mar 2005 09:21 - 2075 of 10502

Here is an intersting article from todays Shares magazine!

Part of a brave new world Betting has taken to the internet like a
child to computer games. Shares meet Barry Dennis, who has successfully
swapped the window for the screen

Time was when sports betting and equities or futures trading were not
just worlds apart but practically separate universes. Sure, your local
telephone or internet booking shop would offer you odds on
anything from the Grand National or an election outcome to the chances of the FTSE
or Dow closing up or down on the day. But that was effectively taking a punt.
The new trading game is more like instant bond or equity arbitrage trying to lock in a
profit from small price differentials and everyone from the master bookmaker down
to the smallest punter making a few pence a time is trading the new electronic
sports markets.

With the phenomenon of Betfair and a number of smaller competitors, you have an
instantaneous exchange of odds that can be continuously traded by those with a sharp eye
and nose for it. Any instrument will do financial, sports or anything else.

One game played by many now is to simply extract a few points from the price by waiting
for the odds to change slightly before the race or result of the bet is in. Its like tick trading on
the FTSE, DAX, Dow or even ICI, except that the market has expanded to sports as well.

For example, say the odds are 5/4 that the FTSE will close up. You sell the bet to another
punter at this price, effectively playing market maker. A few minutes later the odds change
around from 5/4 to 4/5 (the FTSE has moved down a few ticks). Now you effectively close
out by buying it back from someone else making a market.

On a future sports event, the odds are really more affected by supply and demand on bets.
Countless opportunities arise every day on Betfair for trading in and out on these markets
on different events. One financial trader who now also trades sports on the side is making
around an average of five to 10 sports trades a day, claiming an 80% to 90% success rate and
locking in a few ticks each time, all from the luxury of his living room. Effectively, the
internet is bridging the trading gap between arb trading on equities, commodities and
sports, bringing it all into an electronic marketplace like one big virtual eBay.

One old-style bookie who has successfully adapted to the new reality of electronic sports
markets is Barry Dennis. He has been able to bridge the gap between the old world of
trading down on the pitch and the new electronic sports markets, where profits can
often be locked in within a few seconds. Dennis has thrived in the new market while
others have ceased to trade. Pushing markets around is what market makers in shares
often have a reputation for doing and Dennis is no different. A market maker or
bookie like Dennis has to make competitive markets to attract trade. His skill
lies in laying off the trades profitably and being big enough to influence the market.

Dennis was born in 1941 and grew up in Romford, Essex. He began taking bets from
other students and even from the masters at Romford Grammar School in the 1950s. In 1961,
he started as a manager in a chain of bookmakers then, aged 27, went independent
and obtained a pitch at Romford dogs. Over the years, Denniss business grew as he obtained
better pitches one afternoon, for example, he spent over 250,000 acquiring new pitches.

These days we just trade the market. he says. Imagine a favourite is very weak and I
have taken a bet of 5,000 at 11/10. Ill shorten the price to evens, but not before I
place a bet on the exchange at 5/4 to cover the 5000 and win some more, whatever the
outcome of the race.

The other bookmakers see me go evens and they think I know something so they follow
me. Then Ill push the price the other way to 5/4, then 11/8, at which point the 5/4 we placed
on the exchange will get snapped up.

On a cold Sunday morning at Kempton Park, Dennis climbs out of his black Merc,
ready for another busy day on the pitch. It is certainly a brave new world out there on the
net, but its a very profitable one for the likes of Barry Dennis, with a turnover of 18
million this year, and many other new style sports traders.

Fundamentalist - 02 Apr 2005 13:03 - 2076 of 10502

Backed 2.5 goals and over on the charlton city game 1-1 after ten minutes and very green - a nice start to the weekend!

was about to back charlton when they scored - the costly finger of indecision lol

Harlosh - 02 Apr 2005 13:10 - 2077 of 10502

Good one Steve. Back from my week(end) away but taking my daughter out for the day (or she is taking me out, I'm not quite sure) while the other half is away in Edinburgh for the weekend.

Good luck for today. Gotta catch a train now.

Fundamentalist - 02 Apr 2005 13:28 - 2078 of 10502

Hi john

good to have you back - missed a good crack at haydock with steph and sputnik - we'll have to re-arrange asap

Scripophilist - 02 Apr 2005 20:54 - 2079 of 10502

Can't wait for match of the day this evening, Or should that be fight of the day?

chartist2004 - 02 Apr 2005 21:15 - 2080 of 10502

Good evening all, had a cracking afternoon on the geegees layed approx 10 in a row each five mins. + a few bob on the footie, up overall today 55%. (my pot was not great to begin with!) Off to the pub to spend a little of my gains....

Fundamentalist - 03 Apr 2005 16:46 - 2081 of 10502

Having a good afternoon on the horses having taken a hit on the football yesterday - just noticed AB Pro is now working in running on the horses - a little dangerous for me i feel!!!!

chartist2004 - 03 Apr 2005 18:23 - 2082 of 10502

I've had another good pm on the horses, 15 trades 2 hits, tried betting on two races at the same time with one screen! that'll teach me! up 68.25% today :o)
Took a hit on the F1, backed Macca, and within 10 seconds he retired!

Where are U all there days ??????

Fundamentalist - 03 Apr 2005 20:20 - 2083 of 10502

chartist

im still here though it has gone quiet

cracking day on the horses - mades approx 60% of my max stake which im well pleased with - avoided trading in running though was tempted a few times - may look into it over the next week or two

chartist2004 - 03 Apr 2005 21:52 - 2084 of 10502

Evening Funda, I tend to lay the 4/5 fav @ around 6/8:1, had a few close calls this pm, some were leading at times! (ref odds, did'nt eye ball them run) could have had much better odds had I waited for the off, only greened up twice, the remainder just let them run...and loose...

Being able to 'see them run' would have made winning even easier! maybe

bakko - 03 Apr 2005 21:53 - 2085 of 10502

Evening All,

Apologies for not contributing recently as I've seemed to have lost my bottle over the last week or so since returning from time away.

However, I had a monumental win with Chelsea yesterday(sorry Scrip - I did think of you but not for very long.. LOL)

I've also done really well with the tennis too, although Federer gave me a really big scare earlier!

During the weekend I managed to analyse my success rate with Betfair as I now have over 3 months of Profit/Loss figures. It has thrown up some very interesting data. My 4 most popular events are Football, Tennis, Cricket and Finance(intra-day Footsie).

Finance.
My success rate here is pretty dire(20/72), despite having live data at hand. I just can't seem to master this at all!

Football.
54/72. A much better win ratio. However, I'm down overall on football owing to a loss of epic proportions on one game.

By far and away my most profitable sports are cricket(18/21) and tennis (38/41).
I think I've got tennis pretty well sussed out although I'll probably get hammered sooner or later!

By looking at my P/Ls it has identified a lot of my strengths and weaknesses (which unfortunately I still have too many!).

I hope the above is of interest to you all.

chartist2004 - 03 Apr 2005 22:02 - 2086 of 10502

bakko - Ref tennis both player were 9's at one time, then both down to 2's!! .
My P/L seems to swing wildly mostly L!

bakko - 03 Apr 2005 22:15 - 2087 of 10502

Chartist,

I didn't see the game but on it with Betfair and had the live scores on another window which wasnt refreshing on a live basis.

I agree with you that odds were all over the show for both players. I was scalping for ticks on Federer near the beginning at which the game turned against him. I had to wait till later before I could resume. He nearly cost me a fortune but I forgive him for finally winning through!

Fundamentalist - 03 Apr 2005 22:54 - 2088 of 10502

Bakko

did a similar analysis of my progress recently and found that my results on the football are very hit and miss and overall im not making money on this. i have made some small profits from playing with other sports - golf, tennis, darts, snooker, cricket, rugby etc but the majority of my success and profits come from the horse racing - i am now very confident that i will make a profit every day on the horses and for now am trying to focus on this - could all go pear shaped now you can use AB Pro in running though

Scrip

a week or so ago i asked a couple of questions re postion sizes - any chance you could have a look at this for me

chartist2004 - 04 Apr 2005 18:49 - 2089 of 10502

Bet on 18 races today, bf cancelled the other one?? 13 profitable 5 small loses
up another 83.3%, mostly layed but backed 2/3. Some don't half drift before the off to the tune of 20/30% in 10 mins!
I'm 100% on the horses from now on loose too much away trading other events...
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