Trading statement today - not good and shares have halved - just starting a thread in case anyone is interested in looking for the dcb ....

Currently 19p to buy - not thinking of buying at this time but just started tracking



ains


last bought 25/02 @ 12.5 last sold 26/02 for 10% gain

Just featured on CNBC - nothing new - poor management + bad news factored in at this time

Still within the tight trading range



ains

afx at 1545

Break-up hopes aided a bounce for Invensys, up a penny to 21 following Friday's plunge of 45 pct after the engineer's much more severe than expected full year profits alert. Goldman Sachs was repeating 'outperform' advice on the stock, saying much of the bad news looks to be in the price already.

Currently tracking .....


In a note published today, JP Morgan maintained its 'neutral' recommendation, although it cut its forecasts, arguing that it remains surprised at the magnitude of the company's warning. The broker pointed out that it has cut its pre-goodwill EPS estimates by 28% in full year 2003 to 2.6 pence, by 69% in full year 2004 to 1.3 pence and by 51% to 3.1 pence in full year 2006, adding that it is also expecting a 250m goodwill write-down for Baan.

JP Morgan also noted that it is particularly disappointed by the continued problems in Climate Controls, noting that strong profitability and cash flow generation from this business had been a key element of its investment thesis. The broker went on to say that it does not expect an imminent liquidity problem but sees covenants becoming tight again at the end of 2004, although it added that it would not be surprised to see further asset disposals to refinance debt maturing in the summer 2004.

JP Morgan said it sees opportunity for the stock to bounce from its lows, but finds it hard to make a convincing value case, as its valuation is critically dependant on the pension deficit. The broker calculates a current fair value of 18 pence and upside to 35 pence based on full year 2005 estimates, although in the short term a drop out of the FTSE 100 in March could create downside risk for the shares.

currently at 19p so Morgans were right about ISYS .. think it will fall another 10% from here and might be worth a punt.

watching but no rush ..... tracking intraday with sophisticated alerts ..... made a few the other day but needs newsflow - 3rd most traded still - in top 100 ftse



ains

Think today may have been the day to buy. Has completed the 123 down up down bump, so should start to improve from here.

They closed at the intraday low on modest trading volume - I am certainly going to be interested in the morning .... cannot locate any news today

This is from yesterday US


Invensys: dogged by failure of Baan

Invensys has warned that Baan is likely to lose $16.8 million this year.

February 18, 2003 9:24 AM GMT (Datamonitor) - Invensys will have to write down part of the $715 million it paid for Dutch ERP vendor Baan. The business has failed to make progress in a difficult market and appears to be losing market share. Unless Invensys can turn the company around quickly, it will be under heavy pressure to sell it.


Dutch ERP vendor Baan continues to haunt Invensys. The London, UK-based automation and control systems vendor has warned that it will have to write down a substantial part of the $714.7 million it paid for the company in 2000 as the poorly performing operation is likely to contribute a $16.8 million loss this year.

Invensys warned in its mid-term report that the performance of its combined IT services businesses was considerably lower than last year due to "the substantial decline in market demand". However, in a profit warning it issued on Friday, the company said the full-year outcome is likely to be "materially worse" though "significant management action" has reduced costs and improved customer service.

Even though Invensys claimed that Baan was breaking even a year after it was acquired, there have been growing signs that the company was not a goldmine, and recently Invensys has been forced to deny rumors that Baan was to be sold off.

Chief executive Rick Haythornthwaite said Invensys wants to keep "a business with a good technology, loyal customers and a growing market and we're committed to make that happen". He said the potential for performance improvement in the discrete manufacturing sector is "enormous".

However, Baan's failure to make progress at a time when market leader SAP is holding its own in difficult market conditions suggests that it is losing market share. Invensys has been heavily criticized in the investment community for its poor performance, and unless its can turn Baan round quickly, there will be strong pressure to sell the operation.

In the news this morning

Telegraph

By Yvette Essen
(Filed: 20/02/2003)



Invensys in deep as blue chips flounder

British engineering group Invensys continued to be punished for last Friday's profits warning as it tumbled to a new low. It led the list of blue chip losers, falling 2.25 to 17.75p as 75.2m shares changed hands, compared with the average volume of nearer 25m.

Jonathan Hurn, engineering analyst at West LB Panmure, said investors are concerned the group will not meet its targets and is losing market share in certain sectors, such as the energy management division.

"People have lost trust in the management," he said. "It fell almost 50pc on Friday and people thought it would bounce back, but it has been deteriorating further."

In the wider market, the benchmark FTSE 100 was uninspired in early dealings and it eventually closed down 71.2 to 3658.3. Traders said pension funds had recently been selling out of their positions but were not coming back into the market.

They also whispered that a blue-chip company will be fund-raising in the market shortly. Life assurers Aviva, 27.25 lighter at 425.5p, and banks were cited as possible suspects. Goldman Sachs is thought to be involved.

Meanwhile, Wall Street retreated because of profit-taking and continued jitters about war with Iraq. When London closed, the Dow Jones was down 60 points.

CAN Rick Haythornthwaite, of Invensys, sleep more easily in his bed? As the shares hit a new low, one of the companys sternest critics will be troubling it no more. Dan Manor is the engineering analyst at CSFB whose aggressive stance last week cut through the wall of flannel from the company and forced it to release last Fridays profits warning. He has just left the broker to work for a hedge fund.


citydiary@thetimes.co.uk

Times - Invensys recorded the worst blue chip fall, off 2p to a low of 17p, in the wake of Fridays profit warning. Dresdner Kleinwort Wasserstein cut its price target to 10p on Tuesday, while other brokers continue to downgrade their numbers in expectation of continued weak trading.

Ticking up - 3rd in risers list

Back down now! Think this will be a matter of time but these oversold constraints will work through. The value in the company now is looking better all the time.

yes ..... haven't traded today but tracking - US futures marginally off - intraday still falling but may buy on inraday bounce - half unit only


ains

another level down after stabilising for over an hour

This has clearly not helped the shares but ok by me as I track to buy a few


ains


20 Feb 2003 12:13 GMT

Invensys extends slump on outlook, management gloom

LONDON, Feb 20 (Reuters) - Shares in troubled British engineering group Invensys Plc ISYS.L slumped to an all-time low on Thursday as last week's profit warning heightened concerns about management credibility and recovery prospects.
By 1155 GMT Invensys shares were down 5.6 percent at 16-3/4 pence, the worst performer in the FTSE 100 index as the broader UK market pushed higher.

Invensys lost half its market value on Friday after it warned its second-half earnings may slump, and its shares have remained under pressure since.

"There's no fresh news, just people getting to grips with the profit warning," one analyst said. "Where they may have been overweight (in Invensys shares) in the hope of a recovery in the U.S. and its high exposure in capital goods, they've now realised it's not going to come around this year or probably next," he added. He said management credibility had also been rocked by the surprise warning.

Lehman Brothers slashed its 12-month price target on Invensys shares to 25 pence from 60p on Thursday, the latest in a string of investment banks to cut its target.

"Invensys' profit warning demonstrated not only the weak resilience of certain of Invensys' businesses to cyclical downturns but also, and perhaps more significantly, the disparate nature of the businesses within the group held together in some cases by what we believe to be insufficient management controls," Lehman analyst Lisa Randall said in a note.

Invensys, which was formed in 1999 when Siebe acquired diverse engineering group BTR, makes controls and automation equipment for factories, offices and homes. The firm's market value has slumped to about 600 million pounds ($960 million), making it likely it will exit Britain's FTSE 100 blue-chip index next month.

a new low established as vols pick up ..... not looking good intraday

I have 16p mid price and not looking good.. I think we may see 15p tomorrow...when will this fall ever stop.

its not looking very inviting ..... will wait on news i think

Ended the day at 17.5 in auction. Was a relief to see buyers coming in towards the close.

Watching the closing auction, there were 3 big deals posted on both sides (sort of like willy waving I think!). One was for about 5.5m shares, the other at 6.1m (2 the same size at different prices). They first appeared on the sell side at 17.5, 17.75 and 18p respectively.

What I deduce from that (if anything) is that sellers have possibly 11.75m to play with, and that buyers are perfectly prepared to take them on. Someone reckons there's put option contracts that expire tommorrow (I have my doubts) and that this will induce buying to mitigate the downside. Would be nice...