< "> edit this post http://www.investegate.co.uk/afren-plc-%28afr%29/rns/trading-statement-and-operations-update/201301210700069619
http://www.investegate.co.uk/afren-plc--afr-/rns/2012-full-year-results/201303250700107200A/

In an attempt to cut down the header page,i've transferred some of the older news to Page1 post No.3.

http://www.oil-price.net/index.php?lang=en
http://www.ft.com/home/uk

http://www.investegate.co.uk/Article.aspx?id=201111020700081674R
http://www.investegate.co.uk/Article.aspx?id=201111150700250723S
http://www.investegate.co.uk/Article.aspx?id=201112010705051251T
http://www.investegate.co.uk/Article.aspx?id=201201170700146472V
http://www.investegate.co.uk/Article.aspx?id=201201230701479690V
http://www.moneyam.com/action/news/showArticle?id=4323758
http://www.investegate.co.uk/Article.aspx?id=201204170700164488B
http://www.investegate.co.uk/Article.aspx?id=201205140700212304D
http://www.investegate.co.uk/Article.aspx?id=201205210700407032D
http://www.moneyam.com/action/news/showArticle?id=4430164
http://www.investegate.co.uk/afren-plc-%28afr%29/rns/significant-new-seychelles-3d-seismic-programme/201212120700052973T/
http://www.investegate.co.uk/afren-plc--afr-/rns/2013-half-yearly-results/201308230700063334M/
http://www.investegate.co.uk/afren-plc--afr-/rns/ogo-drilling-and-resources-update/201311190700083404T/
http://www.investegate.co.uk/afren-plc--afr-/rns/trading-statement-and-operations-update/201401280700096280Y/
http://www.investegate.co.uk/afren-plc--afr-/rns/interim-management-statement/201405200700135209H/
http://www.investegate.co.uk/afren-plc--afr-/rns/interim-management-statement/201410300700116483V/
http://www.moneyam.com/action/news/showArticle?id=4942625
http://www.moneyam.com/action/news/showArticle?id=4943375

oil prospecting
Afren (LSE: AFR), rated a BUY by Deutsche Bank
With investors as wary as they are, firms are being punished heavily for even minor disappointments. Take oil and gas explorer Afren. Two months ago, its shares dived on news that an exploratory well off the coast of Ghana had encountered water. Yet this accounts for just a
tiny part of the group’s reserves. There’s still plenty to play for in this “very high potential basin”.
Moreover, in April, chief executive Osman Shahenshah unveiled a “potentially transformational” oil discovery in the Kurdistan region of northern Iraq, in which Afren has a 20% interest. Results from a well operated by its US partner Hunt Oil pointed to “strong hydrocarbon shows” at a field that has previously been estimated to contain up to 917m barrels of recoverable oil (mmboe).
In January, Afren announced another huge find, in which it owns a half-share, off the coast of southeast Nigeria. Data indicate a possible resource of 157mmboe. This year the company plans to drill
up to another 14 exploration wells
across Kurdistan, east Africa, Nigeria
and Congo, targeting new resources of 630mmboe. In March the CEO said the
firm had 3.5 billion barrels of prospective resources.
For 2012, management expects actual output of between 42,000 to 46,000
boe per day. By 2017, following the construction of a pipeline linking Turkey with Kurdistan, this is set to almost treble to 125,000 – which suggests plenty of upside from today’s valuation. Even after factoring in its relatively high gearing,
the shares look far too cheap. In the first quarter alone, Afren generated $300m of operating cashflow from lifting 41,308 boepd. At this rate, it should have little trouble repaying its net debt of $639.4m, $138m in finance leases and $217m in deferred consideration.
Corporate governance is one issue to watch – the firm recently got a public tongue-lashing from a few major shareholders, after Shahenshah’s pay more than doubled to $3.4m on a one-off bonus. Other risks include cost inflation, oil price volatility, geopolitical risk, environmental pollution, natural disasters and foreign-currency fluctuations. But assuming a Brent crude price of $90 a barrel, I value the stock at 140p a share. Deutsche Bank has a target of 270p. Interims are out on 21 August.
Rating: BUY at 101p

"By 2017, following the construction of a pipeline linking Turkey with Kurdistan......" That is making a huge assumption, imo. I didn't think they had even agreed in principle to laying the pipeline yet?

http://www.mepc.org/iraq-turkey-and-new-kurdistan-pipeline-deal
Kurdish Production as of 2012

According to Hawrami, total KRG production capacity is now close to 300,000 b/d, while domestic consumption in Kurdish territories is about 100,000 b/d. The KRG can theoretically exceed the 175,000 b/d average that Iraq’s 2011 export agreement planned for if these estimates are correct. Also in May, officials confirmed plans to renovate and return to service a 46” pipeline connecting Kirkuk to Ceyhan on the Turkish coast.

A 40” pipeline connecting Kirkuk to Ceyhan is already active but the 46” pipeline, which the Kurds want to restore, has been shut down since 1990, when Iraqi crude exports were temporarily halted following Saddam’s invasion of Kuwait. Hawrami insists the KRG still wants to export under SOMO’s direction if revenue-sharing is restarted. The deal was reached without Baghdad’s consent.

The Turkish pipeline deal will allow the Kurds to export up to one million b/d through the renovated pipeline. But it might also make reconciliation between Erbil and Baghdad harder to achieve. A spokesman for Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki insisted on May 22 that any deal would require Baghdad’s approval. It is unclear how the central government would prevent the pipeline from being renovated or oil from being transported once complete.
Pipeline Politics

KRG President Massoud Barzani visited Turkey in April after all exports of Kurdish crude were halted. He met with Prime Minister Erdogan, Foreign Minister Ahmet Davutoglu, and President Abdullah Gul. Barzani’s nephew, KRG Prime Minister Nechirvan Barzani, visited Ankara a month later and met with all three officials as well as Turkish Energy Minister Taner Yildiz.

On May 20, Yildiz stood side-by-side with Hawrami, Kurdistan’s Minister of Natural Resources, at an energy conference in Erbil. There it was announced that the KRG plans to restore the 46” pipeline and export oil to the Mediterranean port of Ceyhan by mid-2013. Yildiz and Hawrami also announced a new barter arrangement. Kurdish oil will be trucked across the border where it will be refined in Turkey and ultimately returned to Kurdistan. “We are trying to compensate [the ban on refined products] by expanding our refineries,” Hawrami said at the conference. “But if we cannot expand them fast enough, we will send oil outside the country for refining. It is our right. We will not wait for our people to starve.”

Once active the million b/d pipeline will give Turkey direct access to Kurdish oil. The deal should become more lucrative if Kurdish exports increase as expected. If and when the KRG begins exporting large volumes by pipeline to Ceyhan, which could take more than a year, Hawrami promised that the Kurds will deduct 17 percent of its revenue for its own account before passing over the balance to the Iraqi treasury.

Baghdad will not endorse Hawrami’s offer even though it was made in the spirit of the 2011 export agreement. Oil deals remain a key measure of authority in post-war Iraq. As a result, Maliki is unwilling to cede any ground. The only solution would be a new hydrocarbon law. But the deepening political crisis remains a major obstacle to any comprehensive agreement.

http://alajnabee.wordpress.com/2012/06/15/kurdistans-new-pipeline-is-actually-42-years-old/
Talk of a new pipeline connecting oil fields in Kurdistan to the Turkish port of Ceyhan has only deepened Iraq’s political crisis. Baghdad insists the deal is illegal, since it was reached without the input of the central government, while officials from Irbil and Ankara speak optimistically about a new era of prosperity. I wrote about this pipeline deal last month for the Middle East Policy Council. Last week, Robert Hatem’s guest post talked more about the politics driving Turkey and Kurdistan closer together.

But a major question still looms. Is there really a new pipeline in the works? This is a significant question since every barrel of additional export capacity gives the Kurdistan Regional Government (KRG) more leverage over Baghdad. Unfortunately, the reporting has been muddled so far. Official statements don’t clarify the situation much, either. And I don’t believe there’s any agreement in print yet. So here at Al Ajnabee, I want to sort it out and see if readers can offer new comments, evidence, or conclusions.

As far as I can tell, when we talk about expanding Kurdistan’s oil exports, we’re talking about two separate projects. One is real and plausible; the other is still imaginary. The first–and plausible–project is a pipeline renovation project that will re-open the 46” pipeline connecting Kirkuk to Ceyhan. The Kirkuk-Ceyhan pipeline is actually composed of two lines. One is 46” with a capacity of 1 million b/d. It’s been shut down since 1990. The other is 40” with a capacity of 500,000-600,000 b/d. It currently operates at a diminished capacity of about 300,000 b/d. Renovating the 46” line would allow Kurdistan to pump 1 million b/d through Turkey to the Mediterranean Sea. It could be completed as soon as next year.

The second project, which made the most headlines last month, is a genuinely new pipeline, the contract for which will not be awarded until August 2013, Kurdish Energy Minister Ashti Hawrami says. It’s supposed to carry 1 million b/d but may be years away. The Turks, however, have yet to give this project even a wink or a nod. In public statements, they emphasize the renovation project. Since a new pipeline would stretch hundreds of kilometers through Turkish territory, Ankara’s silence is very, very telling, I think.

Some reports give the impression that this new line is actually a third leg of the twin pipelines that have connected Kirkuk and Ceyhan since the early 1970s. Building a brand new pipeline across international borders would be a brash move by Irbil and Ankara since Baghdad was not part of the deal. But statements from the Turkish Energy Minister, Taner Yildiz, and Kurdistan’s Energy Minister, Ashti Hawrami, suggest there is no new pipeline being readied that would cross the border.

At a May 20 energy conference in Irbil, Turkish Energy Minister Taner Yildiz told the audience that Turkey wanted to see existing pipelines operating at max capacity. He never mentioned a new pipeline. And on June 5, Reuters quoted Kurdish Energy Minister Hawrami speaking at the World Economic Forum in Istanbul. According to the report, “Hawrami said his administration wants the private sector to build a new pipeline link that would solely carry the heavy crude extracted from Kurdish fields within two years [emphasis added].” Since there’s no way a new 600-mile (970km) pipeline could be built connecting Kirkuk to Ceyhan in two years–I think we have to assume this “new” pipeline is nothing more than a short one connecting fields to the existing twin pipelines.

Hawrami said as much. “This is not an alternative to Kirkuk-Ceyhan, but additional capacity, and it is not really a pipeline to bypass current infrastructure,” he told the forum. I can’t find a complete transcript of his remarks. But I’m now inclined to believe the “new” pipeline connecting Turkey and Kurdistan is really 42 years old. Renovations on the 46” line will still rub Baghdad raw, of course, but it seems this development is not quite as bold as some claimed. Kurdish officials are still signaling that they want to be part of Iraq. And, although some in Kurdistan are busy calculating how much money the KRG could make by exporting more oil in the coming decade, Hawrami insists the Kurds will take their cut but pass along most of the revenues to the central government in Baghdad.

http://www.moneyam.com/action/news/showArticle?id=4401100

Some old news - Afren increasing its interest in block 1 Kenya to 80%
http://www.lionpetroleumcorp.com/news-media/media-coverage/single-news/article/taipan-resources-inc-announces-proposed-merger-with-lion-petroleum-corp-an-oil-gas-exploration-c.html
17 May 2012
Taipan Resources Inc. Announces Proposed Merger With Lion Petroleum Corp.

VANCOUVER, BRITISH COLUMBIA

Taipan Resources Inc. (TSX VENTURE:TPN) is pleased to announce that the company has entered into an agreement for a proposed merger with Lion Petroleum Corp.

Lion Petroleum Corp. is an independent oil and gas exploration company with interests in 9.7 million gross oil and gas exploration acres in Block 1 and Block 2B onshore Kenya. Lion currently holds a 20% working interest in Block 1 (7.8 million acres gross) which is operated by Afren Plc, and a 100% working interest in Block 2B (1.9 million acres). Total net unrisked prospective resources on the Blocks are 528 million barrels of oil equivalent based upon the NI 51-101 report prepared by Sproule Associates Limited and Afren Plc management estimates.

In consideration for the merger, Taipan will provide Lion Petroleum Corp. with irrevocable bank guarantees to fund the required work program on Block 2B and commitments on Block 1. In addition, the current shareholders and convertible bridge loan holders of Lion Petroleum Corp. will receive 20,124,817 shares of Taipan common stock, representing 39.1% of the outstanding shares of common stock of Taipan in the post-merger corporation.

Mr. Charles Watson, Director of Taipan, commented, "Lion's Block 1 and Block 2B onshore Kenya are highly prospective, world-class, oil and gas exploration blocks. Kenya is at an early and exciting stage in the development of the country's hydrocarbon resources post the first major oil discovery in Kenya, the Ngamia-1 well, announced by Tullow Oil Plc and Africa Oil Corporation in March."

BLOCK 1 ONSHORE KENYA (7.8 MILLION ACRES)

Block 1 is located in northeast Kenya contiguous with the borders of Ethiopia and Somalia and contains the Tarbaj oil seep. The Block is in an extension of the Ogaden basin which in Ethiopia contains approximately 4 trillion cubic feet of natural gas resources. The El Kuran oil discovery in Ethiopia, close to the Block 1 boundary, is planned to be appraised by Africa Oil Corporation and Afren Plc later this year. Lion Petroleum Corp. originally farmed-out a 50% interest in Block 1 to East Africa Exploration, subsequently purchased by Afren Plc, with Afren Plc carrying Lion Petroleum Corp. for up to 600 km of 2D seismic or up to US$6 million in gross cost. Afren has recently elected to exercise its option to increase its interest in Block 1 to 80%, subject to approval of the Kenyan Government, by carrying Lion Petroleum for an additional 600 km of 2D seismic up to a further US$6 million in gross cost. Afren management estimates gross prospective resources of 751 million barrels of oil equivalent on Block 1 (150 mmboe net).

From Tullows update today.
Regards Kenya block 10A - 20% Afren
An accelerated exploration campaign is now being planned. Further 2D and 3D seismic data will be acquired and additional rigs will be mobilized, including a separate rig to drill the Paipai-1 prospect in Block 10A which is expected to commence drilling in the latter part of the third quarter 2012.

Broker Citigroup has in the past forecast that East Africa could become one of the largest exploration plays in the next decade.

All of the major oil and liquefied natural gas groups are apparently champing at the bit to acquire strategic entry in the region. Not a lot has happened in the sector, but whispers yesterday suggested all is about to change.

Indeed, shareholders of Africa-focused Afren, 1.8p easier at 104.8p, could soon strike it lucky because rumours were rife that ENI, Italy’s multi-national oil and gas company, and Exxon Mobil, the world’s largest energy company, are both running the slide rule over the firm. Either one could launch a bid in the region of £2.15bn cash or £2-plus a share.

Read more: http://www.dailymail.co.uk/money/markets/article-2171074/MARKET-REPORT-Brokers-wont-Africa.html#ixzz20AYQFlYy

£2 a share! what a joke..........ebok alone has got to be worth that.

something is only worth what another will pay

Most reports that I have seen have poured cold water on The Mail article as completely groundless, so it is likely that the sp is due to go down as fast as it went up. As a holder of AFR, I hope it doesn't, but expect it will!

I wonder if AFR OR BLVN ON SHELL MIND NOW THAT THEY HAVE MORE OR LEE WALK AWAY FROM COVE ENERGY?

I wonder if AFR OR BLVN ON SHELL MIND NOW THAT THEY HAVE MORE OR LESS WALK AWAY FROM COVE ENERGY?

with an all time high of 185sh and a potential rumoured takeout price of £2.+ that price may seem reasonable. unless one is a holder of course . and then it is always considered to be not high enough.
i did hold but not anymore, looking for good level to re instate.
has the rumour put a ceiling on the price potential? or not?
if takeout not forthcoming will price continue to recover or not?
please discuss. current price 115.0
im still flat and watching. too much risk for me at present. the rumour mongers have stopped me shorting if it gets back to 150sh .mind you , i still might. will wait to see what chart looks like at that time.if it happens.it may not.it may fail at 130sh
rumour and distribution seem to me to go hand in hand.
buying more here or averaging down is so dangerous so please do be careful.
personally i shant be buying for some time. unless i change my mind.
just my opinion
so please all dyor
regards and good luck to all
jkd

Afrens tading statement and operations update was 20 July last year so possible 2012 update in next few days

StockMarketWire.com

Afren has confirmed additional oil and positive test results from the Simrit-2 exploration well in the Kurdistan region of Iraq.

The well has been drilled to a depth of 3,800 metres and the total net oil pay has increased to 460 metres.

In addition, a cumulative flow rate of 13,584 barrels of oil per day has been achieved from three out of 12 zones tested.

The well had previously encountered an estimated 409 metres of net oil pay throughout Cretaceous, Jurassic and Triassic reservoirs down to the initially planned total depth of 3,700 metres.

Afren and operator Hunt Oil Middle East subsequently elected to deepen the well and continue drilling to a revised total depth of 3,800 metres in order to test additional prospectivity.

Analysis of data collected indicates the continual presence of light oil shows throughout the deepened section of the well, extending the estimated net pay encountered by the well to 460 metres.

No oil water contact has been established in the target reservoirs.



At 8:23am: (LON:AFR) share price was +7.25p at 126.15p


Story provided by StockMarketWire.com

sp starting to wake up a bit too, and none too soon!

Cynic,

You have enough time left to do well out of this company.

Patience!

Afren is now a proper Kurdistan play along with GKP, HOIL and GENL...

up up and away!!! Over short term. imvho