markymar
- 03 Dec 2003 11:36
eddieshare
- 14 Feb 2006 20:49
- 2161 of 6492
Hi all
Thanks to all for the updates
DES looking prety strong today, the candle has bullish implications. The trades seemed a bit odd though. Never the less a nice gain. DES opend up higher than yesterdays close and finnished on the days high. If you blend the candles of the past 2 or 3 days, we have a bullish hammer. All being well we should see a continuation as DES is in a good area for more buying.
Good Luck All
Eddie
hlyeo98
- 14 Feb 2006 21:39
- 2162 of 6492
I don't think candles mean anything...we need news...good news.
eddieshare
- 14 Feb 2006 22:03
- 2164 of 6492
Hi hlyeo98
Yes good news would boost DES or any other share for that matter. The shaddows on the candles do suggest areas of support and resistance. Long shadows on top after trading up, suggest resistance. If you look at the chart the resitance is at about 0.3600p. The support is about 0.2900p, so this is my reason for saying DES is looking good for a buy. Depending on how you trade a 7p move on stock may be worth trading for a short term trader. If DES is sitting on top of the yellow line tomorrow, chances are 0.3600p will be the target.
Kind Regards
Eddie
markymar
- 15 Feb 2006 08:04
- 2165 of 6492
http://business.guardian.co.uk/story/0,,1709740,00.html
Among the small caps, rumours of a link-up with an Indian oil company saw Falklands Oil & Gas advance 20.5p to 171p
PR by FOGL working over time
Captguns
- 16 Feb 2006 07:12
- 2166 of 6492
A tight rig market but not overly so hopefully.
Snip from a trade mag.
Latin America
At the moment, activity in this market is humming along, although concerns about Mexico continue to surface. While initial beliefs were that Pemex was going to release rigs, this has proven not to be the case, and in fact, the company has tendered for additional rigs. The concern now appears to be over the upcoming presidential election this summer. Assuming the governments stance on offshore drilling remains the same, Pemex will bring in two or three additional jackups in 2006 and will continue to renew existing contracts when they expire. The operator has proven recently that it is willing to step up and pay the rates necessary to keep rigs in the region. In 2006, rates for new awards will eclipse $100,000 (up from rates in the $30,000s fixed in 2002/2003), rising to over $140,000 for larger units. In the other active country in this region, Trinidad, three of the five working jackups come up for renewal this year, with two likely to receive long-term extensions. Also, the Rowan Gorilla III will arrive this summer to begin a one-year plus one-year option contract with EOG Resources.
The floating rig fleet in this region is essentially tied up to mid-2008. Despite the fact that it will lose two drillships in the first-half of this year, Petrobras extended contracts for its floating rig fleet in 2005 and signed new contracts that will bring additional rigs to the area. Coupled with other operators plans for drilling in the area, no fewer than five floaters will mobilize to the area for contracts starting over the next few years. Elsewhere in the region, only one of seven semis will come up for renewal off Mexico in 2006 and that is not until October, so the market should remain balanced for the entire year
In finalizing its extensions earlier in 2005, Petrobras was able to avoid the meteoric rise in rates that occurred later in the year. The highest rate the operator fixed was $220,000 for a rig that today would likely command over $400,000 in any other market. In comparison, Shell signed two much shallower-rated units later in the year at $240,000 and $280,000, respectively
markymar
- 18 Feb 2006 12:31
- 2167 of 6492
17.02.2006
Exploration - What Is Happening In The Falklands?
By David Bamford
______________________________________________________________
The year 2005 saw a lot of trailing of the hydrocarbon delights of the Falkland Isles, by the main licence holders Desire Petroleum, Rockhopper Exploration, Falklands Oil & Gas and Borders & Southern Petroleum, aided and abetted by the British Geological Survey (BGS). If one were to take at face value everything thats been said or written, then this is an area that has been by-passed, ignored or written-off by the majority of the worlds explorers, big and small, and yet may have the potential for billions of barrels of oil.
Its been argued that the whole area has been overlooked by the oil industry because water depths (between 500 and 1,500 metres) were previously out of reach, it is very remote and there was a hangover from the disappointing drilling campaign of the late 1990s in the North Falklands Basin, which in any case has a completely different geological make-up from the areas to the south of the Falklands.
Actually, the first two arguments seem a bit unlikely, given the global industrys willingness to tackle water depths up to 2000 metres (in Angola and the Gulf of Mexico, for example) and the long queues of companies - all with cheque book in hand - that form up anywhere on the planet nowadays, given the apparent dearth of good exploration opportunities (see my earlier article on "Twilight of Exploration).
So perhaps theres really something fundamentally wrong with the rocks offshore the Falklands?
Possibly the first thing to agree is that we are dealing with some geological variety between the North Falklands Basin, where Desire and Rockhopper have their licences and 6 exploration wells were drilled back-to-back in 1998, and the un-drilled South Falklands Basin, where Falklands Oil & Gas and Borders & Southern have dominant positions in two somewhat different geological settings.
Reading Desire Petroleums various presentations and trying to get behind them to what is being said about the rocks, its difficult to be sure that their technical advisers actually believe that there is a working hydrocarbon system in the North Falkland Basin, the further drilling of which will lead to discoveries.
The South Falklands Basin has, at first sight, rather more in its favour. For a source rock, one can appeal to Upper Jurassic to Aptian age marine black shales proven in scientific (DSDP project) wells on the Falklands Plateau to the east and also in exploration wells in the Malvinas Basin, offshore Argentina, to the west. For reservoir, the appeal is to the variety of Cretaceous and Tertiary reservoirs found in the Malvinas Basin, especially to the Lower Cretaceous Springhill Formation which forms the main reservoir there. However, the BGS has highlighted that drilling in the Argentine sector near the axis of the Malvinas Basin has been only partly successful, due largely to the unpredictable nature of the reservoir targets in the area and perhaps also because of a need for long-distance lateral migration of oil. In fact, Exxon, YPF and Oxy drilled 17 wells there; only 5 of them had encouraging shows of oil and gas in the under-charged Lower Cretaceous reservoir and just one, Calamar x-1 flowed oil (about 3,200 bpd of 37 API).
So a fundamental question for the South Falklands Basin is whether there is any evidence that it will be better than the Malvinas Basin in the matters of reservoir and the migration of generated oil and/or gas into prospects (the plumbing). In reality, the most likely loose end for the South Falklands Basin is that the plumbing may actually deteriorate as one moves a further 500km+ to the East from the Malvinas Basin. In addition, the equivalent, dry, basins in Southern Africa dont offer much support either when one reconstructs the South Atlantic to the pre-sea floor spreading period.
Sometimes the response to such issues is to characterise the area as high risk but it is a demonstrable fact that when explorers describe basins or prospects as high risk, they are actually indicating either that they recognise some fundamental problem with their petroleum geology - a loose end which is the reason why the basin/prospects will not work - or that they do not believe the hydrocarbon volumes that they have attributed to the basin as a whole and/or to the prospects.
Is there anything that can be done about this?
Well, over the last 10-15 years the global industry has learned that there is much more that can be done with seismic, especially 3D seismic, above and beyond plain old structural mapping. Successful prediction of stratigraphy, facies and lithology has become the norm, and the direct detection of trapped hydrocarbons from seismic data, long a holy grail of explorers, has come close to perfection in for example deep water Angola where ExxonMobil, Total and BP have enjoyed a better than 90 per cent exploration success rate. These Majors have tried very hard, and managed, to keep their in-house techniques confidential with regard to many smaller oil & gas companies and most geophysical contractors.
Normally the problem for the interested onlooker is that seismic data is held tight within the partner companies. However, in the case of the Falklands, seeking inward investment, the interested parties have all published some seismic data in the hope of generating some excitement about the scale of their prospects. The result is that in total there is enough available for the experienced eye to take a reasonable view of what might be seen. And I must say that my sense of pessimism about the prospectivity of the Falklands has increased after looking at this data - there seems little evidence on the seismic of either improvements in reservoir or trapped hydrocarbons, at least not in the plays described by the current licence holders.
Of course, given the current global scramble for oil, its probably inevitable that there will be further drilling in the Falklands. The 1998 campaign involved an innovative rig-sharing agreement to enable the six wells to get drilled and perhaps the current operators will try something similar to drill say six to eight wells that test the envisaged plays; at current day rates for a deep sea drilling vessel, one can imagine a gross cost in excess of US$250 million.
For those with pens poised over cheque books, I offer the insightful words of one Samuel Smiles: We often discover what will do, by finding out what will not do; and probably he who never made a mistake never made a discovery.
______________________________________________________________________________
David Bamford is 58. With a Ph.D in Geological Sciences from the University of Birmingham, he had over 23 years exploration experience with BP where he was Chief Geophysicist from 1990 to 1995, General Manager for West Africa from 1995 to 1998, and acted as Vice President, Exploration, directing BP's global exploration programme, from 2001 to 2003. He retired from BP in 2003 and now is a non-executive Director of Tullow Oil plc, and of Paras Limited, a specialist oil and gas industry consulting firm, and Visiting Professor of Geophysics at the University of Leicester.
Contact: bamford_windward@hotmail.com
coeliac1
- 18 Feb 2006 19:25
- 2168 of 6492
Desire's 25m goes nowhere in this cost scenario. It's easy to see why it is getting cold shouldered and no institutions are interested. I got rid of my shares a while back and am pleased I did.
new boy
- 18 Feb 2006 19:48
- 2169 of 6492
I think your right coeliac1 Desire needs a some sort of partner with the price of renting out equipment soaring and the lack of availability its the companys with the most cash who wins not the minos
classyglassy
- 18 Feb 2006 20:09
- 2170 of 6492
Professors?
I recall a prof.when I was at Uni in the 60`s calling me stupid when I suggested that the North Sea petrology had a similar look to some oil bearing strata , somewhere else in the world, can`t remember where-it might have been Libya.
How do experts!!!
luckyswimmer
- 19 Feb 2006 16:29
- 2172 of 6492
Marky, I hope you're right and Bamford isn't aware that we previously had hydrocarbon shows on 5 out of 6 holes and hasn't looked at the seismic carefully but it is getting strange that no deals are being struck. I suspect that it is Phipps reluctance to lose more than say 50% of the future production that is preventing a deal. Given the low probability of getting a rig at the moment even with Peaks help I hope the board is noticing other deals struck with majors in frontier zones like this weeks Exxon / PVR offshore Ireland deal where the major walks off with 80% but has to do all the work. Desire already has 3D so a 60/40% split like DNOs north sea farm-in would be a reasonable compromise. This has to be the best time for years to achieve a good farm-in deal, come on board members telephone Exxon and tell them they shouldn't have to struggle in such deep waters off Ireland when the Falklands beckons.
luckyswimmer
- 21 Feb 2006 09:51
- 2174 of 6492
Interesting a 200K and a 250K buy just happened. It looks like Desire is not going to test it's lows after all.
Marky, I didn't realise that Bamford was once such a key figure at BP. He seems to be laying his cards on the table, I wonder what prompted his need to give his views on the Falklands. Could be good for us long suffering Desire shareholders.
Captguns
- 22 Feb 2006 06:05
- 2176 of 6492
A rather long article and slightly rambley Imho. snip below, but read the full article.
http://www.falklandnews.com/public/story.cfm?get=3794&source=3
Mrs. Rendell gave a brief report about the Area of Co-operation. When the bottom fell out of the oil price meetings ceased but it is thought that with the increase in activity in the North and South Falkland Basins that talks with Argentine officials about the special area of co-operation could begin again.
A presentation by Desire Petroleum about the EIA will take place on 22 February 2006 at the Chamber of Commerce and Rockhopper Petroleum is using the Geo Pacific for 2D Surveys in the in the North Falkland Basin. FOGL have used GSI Admiral in the South Falkland Basin for the same reason, with 3D Seismic shortly to identify prospects for drilling. Rockhoppers OHM Survey with the GSI Pacific is soon to commence and FOGl has completed all but 3,000 sq km of their 25,000 sq km survey area in the South Falkland Basin.
In the future, Desire Petroleum plan to get a rig to do exploratory Drilling in their tranches as soon as possible. Vessels will do 3D surveys in both the North and South Falkland Basins. Seeing that there will be minimal impact on land, drill ships will be used to pump and store crude for on forwarding to markets on tankers. FPSOs as they are called, would, in future, have the facilities to liquefy natural gas into diesel for on forwarding to markets.
Former Governor, Mr. David Tatham, asked if natural gas could now be processed onboard FPSOs and Colin Phipps said not yet but research and development in that area is nearly complete and the facility for liquefying gas should be available on them in the not so distant future. Cllr. Clausen added that in Norway Natural gas is liquefied on barges and transported to market with no environmental impact.
Captguns
- 24 Feb 2006 07:26
- 2177 of 6492
Looks like it was vey professional.
http://www.falklandnews.com/public/story.cfm?get=3799&source=3
Dr Colin Phipps, Chairman of Desire Petroleum plc, is visiting the Falkland Islands with Mr. Ian Duncan, Chief Executive of Desire Petroleum plc, Mr. John Perry, principle author of the Environmental Impact Assessment and Mr. Mark Gillard, a Drilling Engineer. On the evening of Wednesday, 22 February the team gave a presentation at the Chamber of Commerce and explained the main points of the Environmental Impact Assessment, which is on Desire plcs website.
Mr. Gillard said that Desire planned to drill three exploratory wells and he showed graphics that indicated how the wells would be drilled and how deep they would be. He said the project would take approximately 70 days, with supplies and personnel being ferried out to the rig using two supply boats. One boat would stay near the rig for Safety reasons.
Mr. John Perry of RPS Energy presented a very thorough set of slides that explained some of the impact issues, such as rig to air pollution, rig to water pollution, noise pollution. Assessments were also done with respect to seabirds, Marine Mammals and fish. The key points of the baseline study also dealt with Met-Ocean, Socio-economic issues, land and protected areas and species, as well as waste management. There would be no flaring, for example.
In mitigation, the assessment sought to reduce the impact to the environment to the lowest possible level.
Questions from those present dealt mainly with the drilling muds that are a necessity in the hydrocarbons industry. Mr. Perry reassured that only water-based non toxic muds would be used.
Several mechanisms have been in place since the 1997/98 drilling sessions in the North Falkland Basin. As in the past, EMS Standard Offshore Monitoring Protocol would be in place to ensure the environmental and safety aspects pointed out in the Environmental Impact Assessment would be carried out. Besides that, people with a keen interest in the environment pilots, scientists, fishermen you and I would be reporting any infringements.
The possibility of a users group was thought to be a good idea. Dr. Phipps said that since the Environmental Impact Assessment was published on the Desire website there had been some useful feedback that would be incorporated in methods and practices.
Captguns
- 24 Feb 2006 07:28
- 2178 of 6492
Read the article not just the headline!!
http://www.falklandnews.com/public/story.cfm?get=3798&source=3
Just a snip from the article.
CP: Last night I was asked, What were the chances of finding oil? And, I said the chances of finding oil, as such, were almost 100% because the Shell well, for instance, already found oil and it found gas. And, had it been onshore, say in the USA, it almost certainly would have been put on to production. It was good enough for that. The trouble was that it was drilled in the centre of the basin and it only entered thin, silted type sand, which means its got very small grains. And, the small grains mean that although it could be quite porous, its very difficult for oil to flow through it. There is more friction, if you like to think of it that way. The coarser the pours, the faster it flows. What we are really trying to do now is to find a reservoir of coarser sand, where the oil can flow through more easily. So rather than being able to produce 500 barrels a day, we are going to be able to produce 5,000 barrels a day. And, thats what we need to do out in the North Falkland Basin for it to be economical. Our big task is not so much finding oil, which we know to be there. What we are now trying to do is to find the reservoirs, which will give us the productivity, which will make it economic.
markymar
- 24 Feb 2006 09:02
- 2179 of 6492
coeliac1
- 24 Feb 2006 10:02
- 2180 of 6492
Not quite the right headline! Indeed he didn't say that at all he said
"if we get a rig we will drill"
Which is common sense.