goldfinger
- 01 Sep 2004 15:33
This ones a heck of a specualive investment but it seems that the institutions are willing to stomp up the cash to back it in the long term.
Heres the latest news from Killik stocbrokers on the company..........
MEDICAL MARKETING Joint Venture
We recently highlighted Medical Marketing (MMG) as worthy of attention. The company, in which I have a personal share holding, has this morning announced the formation of a joint venture, Genvax, to develop a novel DNA vaccine platform technology.
Human trials have been underway since 2001 in areas such as Lymphoma and Myeloma but the technology has broad applications in cancer, viral and bacterial infections (hence the term platform). The technology works on boosting the immune system by teaching it to identify hard to recognise cancer proteins as foreign and destroy them. Early results from the 25 patient trial in lymphoma are encouraging and evaluation of the result is expected by March 2005. Successful results should mean big pharmaceutical groups will start to take financial and commercial interests around that time.
This looks to be the first of a series of announcements due from Medical Marketing as it has a range of predominantly cancer trials moving into the clinical stage. (news flow could push the price higher)
The stock has made good progress in recent sessions up to the mid-80p level where the company is valued at just under 40 million. ENDS.
Please DYOR
cheers GF.
seawallwalker
- 02 Sep 2006 17:43
- 2205 of 2444
I'm still puzzled about ERX.
From what I see there is a 50/50 chance it is them who have had the two cures for cancer using gene splitting.
Ther are apparently only two companies who deal with this technology as they have patents for it.
MMG deal in dna unravelling as I understand it, am I right in respect of MMG?
seawallwalker
- 03 Sep 2006 10:58
- 2206 of 2444
Surely one of you inestors knopws the answer to the above, do mmg deal with dna technology?
mickeyskint
- 04 Sep 2006 11:35
- 2207 of 2444
From the other side. SW I don't think they are into dna technology. Try their web site it's been updated. A lot of speculation going on and someone is buying big time.
bolador - 2 Sep'06 - 12:19 - 7576 of 7643
kenmill,
Yes more likely but bitterly disappointing from a shareholders point of view
since an initial jump in the sp would be followed by a drift down as it was realised that "thats that for a while" and no bonanza either.
However at a recent presentation DB told those present that MMI had commissioned a valuation of the business by a senior city institution and that
they had come up with a figure well in excess of the current sp. In conversation after the meeting this was confirmed by DB. I therefore believe the possibilty of MMI accepting a bid, full or partial, at around 230p to be
an absolute non starter. Moreover I do not believe that DB and his team will ever place themselves in a position where they have to operate within the
red tape atmosphere of a mega corp without having secured their fortune first.
I have had two conversations with DB at presentations and am convinced that he
believes that the value of the MMI portfolio is way in excess of the current
mkt cap and that he intends tp prove it. For what its worth that's my view.
goldfinger
- 04 Sep 2006 12:17
- 2208 of 2444
Hi SeaWW, mitzy is the medical expert re to the question you put.
Have to say Im a number cruncher and look at an investment on a risk reward basis. MMG is the highest risk stock in my portfolio on that basis, but as a tranche investor it as served me well so far although I hold some tranches at a loss. Sorry I couldnt be of more help.
Nice to see it on the up anyway and I dont really go in much for bid speculation etc, until I see the finished article.
Cheers GF.
goldfinger
- 04 Sep 2006 12:19
- 2209 of 2444
Might be Evil K who is buying big time Mickey, he left me a message sunday saying fill yer boots here, dont think he knows Im in.
mitzy
- 04 Sep 2006 13:24
- 2210 of 2444
I'm happy to hear that Glaxo is interested in buying 9% of the company and not contemplating a full bid so glad they are onboard as the next few years could be very exciting indeed.
goldfinger
- 04 Sep 2006 13:36
- 2211 of 2444
Hi Mitzy, been away for a while so not up to date, whats the source for the Glaxo news?. Nice to see you back here by the way.
cheers Gf.
mitzy
- 04 Sep 2006 13:51
- 2212 of 2444
Hi gf read in the news last week that Glaxo wish to acquire 9% of MMI and are not making a full bid for them which is a relief..I'm happy to hold mine for 1500p plus in the next 2 years.
mickeyskint
- 06 Sep 2006 10:43
- 2213 of 2444
A good post from the other side.
el magnifico - 5 Sep'06 - 22:15 - 7651 of 7655
dadob1
I suppose it depends on your timeframe. I'm packing away the summer hammock and waiting for the 20th September AGM at NCL, 25 Moorgate for a gentle update.
Looking across at OXB, which had languished to a low of 19.5p until late August and is 31.25p today, following its AGM and update, MMG could appreciate to 210p, from the 140-ish lows seen recently.
IMHO OXB is a similar, though inferior, proposition to MMG, valued at 160 million pounds pre-deal for Trovax, or further Prosavin outcomes. MMG's (a) GenVax and (b) Oncosense platforms are more exciting as (a) cancer vaccine breakthrough and (b) replacement for platinum cancer therapies, and both address huge potential markets. I'm sure that this proposition is debatable, but I hold it to be correct after several years of owning both.
As to the recent MMG bid speculation, I can only agree that DB is developing a bidding environment for specific rights to the GenVax and Oncosense properties. I envisage a bid for the whole of MMG to be a pipedream, although a share subscription for a minority stake and a royalty payment structure for specific GenVax / Oncosense rights (maybe thin-sliced by therapeutic application)would be a runner.
I recall that a previous investment of mine, UK internet provider Unipalm, was bid for by UUNET in the late 1990s, which was in turn quickly bid for by WorldCon (sic). I can only hope that DB stays the course, holds out for rich licensing deals on a drug-by-drug basis, rather than sell out quickly and cheaply, and makes himself and long-term MMG holders Microsoft-rich, rather than WorldCom-rich.
IMHO we're on track for the maximal outcome (9 out of 10 major Pharmas on GenVax can't be wrong!). Oncosense's ruthenium therapies have yet to come under starter's orders for usurping the poisonous 30-year old platinum cancer therapies.
After a somnolent summer, we are in for an enlightening period ahead.
No timeframe, leave that that to the traders. Valuation, 500p minimum . Sounds a lot from here (that's 1/2 billion quid-ish) - but remember we were >1/2 way there at 300p in March 2005, before the last 18 months of succesful GenVax trials and the massive academic flux into the Oncosense platform.
As the appetite for genuine bio-blockbusters gathers momentum, this sober MMG site will become a lightning-conductor.
Good luck to all long-term investors !
el
mickeyskint
- 06 Sep 2006 13:20
- 2214 of 2444
GF
You have email. Pick up asap.
MS
mickeyskint
- 07 Sep 2006 10:27
- 2215 of 2444
From the other side.
A0469514 - 6 Sep'06 - 13:30 - 7658 of 7661
I agree with el magnifico that a full bid for MMG is very unlikely given the number of shares controlled by Best and his wife. It is however very plausible that Glaxo would be in the forefront of negotiations for a slice of the action in some of MMG's product pipeline. Genvax, in particular, would seem to fit very well into GSK's vaccines business which they have been expanding aggressively in recent years.
I suppose that Best could agree to sell MMG's stake in the Genvax programme to the highest bidder and distribute the proceeds to shareholders via a special dividend. However Best would pay an awfull lot of tax doing it that way so it is unlikely.
By far the most likely imo is a deal where someone like Glaxo takes on the further development and future marketing of Genvax and pays an upfront fee, milestone payments as development progresses and then royalties on product sales. In that way MMG's shareprice would receive a massive boost and, if Best's confidence in his product is justified, it would carry on improving in the years ahead when it becomes clear that the products will hit the market and likely be blockbusters.
The problem is that when you are negotiating with 9 of the top ten pharma companies it is certainly not going to be a quick process and it is very difficult to predict when a deal may be clinched. My guess though is that both the Genvax and ruthenium programmes are close to a stage where some big money and a heavyweight partner could be very useful to Best's ambitions for the company. For this reason, I believe that the announcement of a huge deal could be close.
Xylos
goldfinger
- 07 Sep 2006 12:28
- 2216 of 2444
Cheers for the info on Glaxo Mitzey.
Mickey, PM gone through to you.
mickeyskint
- 07 Sep 2006 13:04
- 2217 of 2444
GF
You are a star. Many thanks for that. Several pints of Stella coming your way.
LOL
MS
swseun
- 07 Sep 2006 13:49
- 2218 of 2444
hi guys... with MMG from 300p, looking forwards 220p in short futher.. any chance? thanks
swseun
mitzy
- 07 Sep 2006 14:53
- 2219 of 2444
AGM is due end of the month so DB will update us on the latest Glaxo rumour.
goldfinger
- 07 Sep 2006 15:55
- 2220 of 2444
Cheers lads. Im just supping my stella. By the way the PM was nothing re- to MMG.
mickeyskint
- 21 Sep 2006 11:08
- 2221 of 2444
From the other place. The next 12 months are going to be interesting. If you fancy a blue sky stock then this is the one. A cure for cancer, what's that worth, billions. Any news of a tie up and this will rocket, but patience will be needed and rewarded. LOL
M25 - 20 Sep'06 - 22:54 - 7705 of 7712
AGM Update -
A few of my observations.
DB stated that all 3 technologies continue to show positive indications and a point he reiterated more than once throughout his presentation was that if there were any bad news, it would be disclosed immediately.
He stated that with the 3 technology platforms, there were effectively 3 chances of hitting the jackpot.
Now the nitty gritty.
Genvax
(Intersting to note DNA vaccines appears 1st in order in MMI AGM Report).
Further patents have been granted on their Lung and colon cancers. (No RNS needed as there are so many patents already).
2 new scientists have been appointed to assist with the tuberculosis vaccine and I got the impression DB rather likes this one as he mentioned it several times throughout his speech.
The Lymphoma vaccine was mentioned in that the market had grown rapidly to be worth 3bn currently.
MMI are in talks with a US co(emphasised because that is the key market for the vaccine). I also got the impression the progression to PIIb would be with a partner.
Prostate PIIa trial results expected before year end.
Because of the regulatory framework, MMI is unable to show shareholders preliminary results which was mentioned a few times in the Q&A by Michael Walters I believe.
Oncosense
8 week setback with Ru trial start due to impurities.
Now expected to commense Jan 07.
Stability testing is ongoing and has so far proved ok.
The 3rd Ru compound (4414) has been dropped in favour of 4417 due to complicated and expensive manufacturing process.
2nd generation Ru drugs being developed using computers to optimise efficacy.
A question was raised against this statement which was cleverly fielded by Dr James Brenton in that Cisplatin first entered clinical tials in the 1970s. It is still in trials today used in conjunction with other therapies due to its good properties.
Viratis
Lots of progress but still a long way from clinic and adding real value so nothing much to report.
Overall
David was non-commital when pressed about partnerships etc.
When pushed on a question, "Could you have had a deal by now if you had wanted" was met by a reluctant yes (said with a glance towards the advisors).
Same chap also asked if the shareholders would have a good Xmas. David said that he planned to (with his family).
DB was quite jovial and relaxed which to me indicates his strong position and he also added several non top 10 pharmas had joined the table, although which table he did not say.
He described them as special situations.
Can see less reason to sell now than yesterday but then i don't day trade these.
BennytheBall - 20 Sep'06 - 23:02 - 7706 of 7712
Feedback, yes. After the formal bit of the meeting (all resolutions passed), there was a presentation by David Best and then Q&As with DB and the board.
The presentation elaborated on the content of the 'Latest Portfolio Developments' RNS this morning, drawing out a few interesting themes such as
- H5N1 (and HPV) vaccine developments, misleading spin and MMI's strong position in the industry
- Viratis' sudden acceleration through the invention of a successful delivery mechanism
- details of a 6 week delay in the Ruthenium trial programme
- Genvax retaining their focus on lucrative bespoke vaccines, at the same time as developing tumour-type specific and now broad range cancer vaccines
- Data from 1st generation Genvax trials (bespoke vaccines) complete and now being analysed [presumably formal confirmation of what we've been excited about since March 2005]
- Commencement of Ruthenium phase II trials to follow on the successful outcome of a research ethics committee submission in January 2007
- I'm sure there were one or two other striking points, but I can't be arsed to find my notes, as I'm knackered. Others can fill in.
In the Q&A bit, despite all of our efforts to draw David Best on the timing of the coming news of developments in the science or commercialisation, he remained calm, contained and professional.
He assured us that
- all was on track
- there had been dialogue with more than nine pharmas (but only nine of the biggest ten)
- we are more likely to glean there has been clinical progress through RNSs about deals than through RNSs about clinical progress, since MMI can share incomplete/pre-audited clinical data under NDAs with commercial partners ('insiders') that would not be releasable as RNSs for research ethics reasons, and such incomplete/pre-audited data is likely to drive deals
- a deal rather than clinical milestones may thus be the next thing to drive the price
- a deal could probably have been done by now if the board had not wanted to maximise the long term value of the company
- some of the interest from pharmas may have been driven by wanting to kill the competition rather than develop the product
- no news is good news - it means long-winded trials are progressing without any of the sequentially-recruited patients getting worse, and MMI continue to anticipate deals at the point where the deal value is optimised by research progress
- we can look forward to Christmas
;-)
I'd be interested to hear of any conversations with DB or board members I missed after leaving in a hurry at the end.
Ben
swseun
- 04 Oct 2006 14:07
- 2222 of 2444
so where is MMG going to now? anyone?
mickeyskint
- 12 Oct 2006 15:18
- 2223 of 2444
A nice little 4% today. GF you still in?
MS
mickeyskint
- 12 Oct 2006 15:20
- 2224 of 2444
Sorry 5%.Opps
MS