This sums up much of my thinking - I hold a few and swing trade a few and even trade intraday sometimes ......

I think there is a lot of slack that management can cut out of the costs and would also anticipate sector consolidation ..... good value currently and have been holding their own in a falling market. Lot of US interest.

ains


Edited by Dominic White
(Filed: 08/02/2003)


Texting makes MmO2 sexy but it's also risky

More and more Britons are discovering the joys of textual intercourse. In the month of December, we fired off more than 50m mobile messages a day, and next Friday (that's Valentine's Day, folks, in case you'd forgotten) we'll send considerably more than that.



It emerged this week that the chief beneficiary of this craze is MmO2 . BT's former mobile phone division revealed that it gets a higher proportion of revenues from texting than any of the other three operators.

Revenue from messaging grew at its fastest rate ever in the last quarter, up 19pc, and data services as a proportion of MmO2 's revenue rose to 17.7pc from 15.6pc.

More good news was the rise in MmO2 's average revenues per customer. ARPUs, as nerdy analysts like to dub them, grew by 5pc to 243 in the UK and by 9pc in Germany to 212.

MmO2 now has 19.1m subscribers and in Britain it may be the smallest player, with 11.9m users, but it is growing faster than its rivals - testament to the success of its rebranding from BT Cellnet.

Only 114,000 of its 503,000 new UK subscribers were higher-spending contract customers, but MmO2 claims its pre-pay customers have started spending more than before.

Customer growth in Germany, which continues to be dominated by T-Mobile and Vodafone, is less impressive and the MmO2 share price ascribes little or no value to this part of the business.

That seems unfair, given the fact that the group has attracted higher-spending customers and has made a decent fist of turning the operation around. An eventual sale or merger is almost as inevitable as a disposal of the Dutch unit, which is losing customers.

MmO2 's larger rival Vodafone is trading on a free cashflow yield of 6pc, while at 49p this week, MmO2 's equivalent valuation remains negative. It might not have Vodafone's scale or profitability but there is room for upside. A risky buy.

You have to learn to live with and profit from them .... makes for more volatility ... US news is mixed but generally not very + ..... US futures are fairly constant and marginally off. Sector as before but general market better than evens .... going to put my neck out here and assumming no new news we will see 58p.


By all meands give me a call - mail me at ainsoph@blueyonder.co.uk


ains



Buy orders Sell orders
Num(%) Num Vol(%) Vol VWAP Vol Vol(%) Num Num(%)
1% (30.77%) 8 (18.77%) 819,428 56.56 - 57.29 3,546,865 (81.23%) 18 (69.23%)
5% (25.00%) 9 (17.95%) 1,167,069 56.39 - 57.52 5,334,239 (82.05%) 27 (75.00%)
10% (33.90%) 20 (20.62%) 1,640,669 55.97 - 57.74 6,317,339 (79.38%) 39 (66.10%)
15% (35.14%) 26 (21.55%) 1,762,493 55.75 - 57.78 6,415,868 (78.45%) 48 (64.86%)
50% (35.06%) 27 (23.28%) 1,962,493 55.16 - 57.83 6,466,560 (76.72%) 50 (64.94%)
100% (38.27%) 31 (23.51%) 1,987,513 54.94 - 57.83 6,466,560 (76.49%) 50 (61.73%)
all (37.35%) 31 (23.50%) 1,987,513 54.94 - 57.89 6,470,860 (76.50%) 52 (62.65%)

L2 weaker now? It most certainly is for VOD which has been pushed ↓ to 124 ↓1%.

slipping now ..... double the falls of the sector but still an hour to go - volumes are high and news is coming out albeit not seriously price moving.


O2 offers email on the move

London, April 30 2003, (netimperative)



by Chris Lake

O2 has launched a new email-on-the-move service that provides users with access to business email, calendar and contacts from its xda handset.


The service, branded 'xmail', is aimed at business users and particularly at commuters, who can use their xda - a cross between a PDA and colour-screen mobile phone - to read email from trains or taxis.

Users need to download software from O2's website to synchronise their xda's with a PC to use the service.

The network operator said customers responded positively to xmail in pre-launch trials. Many of its existing 50,000 users wanted O2 to introduce more varied email connectivity services - they can now take advantage of a free 10-day trial that is accompanying the launch of xmail.

After the 10-day trail period elapses, users will be charged 9.99 per month for the xmail service, which excludes airtime and data costs.

O2 now has about 12m customers in the UK.

Strange because there was a 17 million buy half an hour ago .....

BBC NEWS


3G operators win tie-up approval


3g allows callers to see each other
Mobile phone operators T-Mobile and mm02 have won approval from the European Commission to share networks for third generation (3G) mobile phones in Britain.

Europe's competition watchdog said the agreement would not prove anti-competitive.

But it excluded the top 10 British cities from the "roaming" deal between the two operators, and said it would only apply in smaller cities until 2007.

Roaming allows mobile phone users to switch automatically from one network to another.

Long wait

Competition commissioner Mario Monti said: "This decision strikes the right balance between infrastructure competition in the 3G market and the immediate consumer benefit of faster and wider roll-out of advanced 3G services."

Mobile firms are increasingly looking towards partnerships in a bid to minimise their outlay and stem huge costs.

They paid vast sums to obtain 3G licences, which allow users to see each other and send video footage during calls.

But long delays and numerous technical glitches have hampered the widely-hyped launch - and operators' ability to reap the return on their investment.

T-Mobile, owned by Deutsche Telekom, is Europe's second largest mobile operator while mm02 is the smallest of the five European players.

The two firms asked for approval to share their sites in Britain and Germany in February and the Commission has so far only given its accord for the British part of the deal.

At a price

The UK's first mainland 3G mobile network, Hutchison 3, officially opened for business in March after a series of technical glitches.

But with an average price of 400 for a handset, the technology comes at a price.

Trade and Industry Secretary Patricia Hewitt made the UK's first public mobile video call over 3's new service to Stephen Timms, the e-Commerce Minister.

The government has been a strong promoter of 3G technology, having earned billions of pounds from the sale of the radio frequency licences.

"The possibilities are immense.

"It has the potential to revolutionise the way we communicate and I am delighted that UK businesses and consumers will be among the first to benefit from it," said Ms Hewitt.

intraday trading graph not looking good - sharp downturn

What happened with O2? Is it just weak L2 or someone shorting the hell out of it

Virtually all sells in last half an hour

Buy orders Sell orders
Num(%) Num Vol(%) Vol VWAP Vol Vol(%) Num Num(%)
1% (61.11%) 11 (58.28%) 2,213,684 55.63 - 56.28 1,584,578 (41.72%) 7 (38.89%)
5% (53.57%) 15 (43.75%) 2,667,777 55.52 - 56.65 3,429,496 (56.25%) 13 (46.43%)
10% (39.66%) 23 (28.91%) 2,865,882 55.42 - 57.22 7,047,330 (71.09%) 35 (60.34%)
15% (33.33%) 25 (26.87%) 2,905,306 55.37 - 57.43 7,907,859 (73.13%) 50 (66.67%)
50% (34.62%) 27 (28.19%) 3,110,206 55.01 - 57.44 7,922,859 (71.81%) 51 (65.38%)
100% (36.14%) 30 (28.19%) 3,130,326 54.89 - 57.49 7,973,551 (71.81%) 53 (63.86%)
all (35.29%) 30 (28.18%) 3,130,326 54.89 - 57.54 7,977,851 (71.82%) 55 (64.71%)

Buy orders Sell orders
Num(%) Num Vol(%) Vol VWAP Vol Vol(%) Num Num(%)
1% (61.11%) 11 (58.28%) 2,213,684 55.63 - 56.28 1,584,578 (41.72%) 7 (38.89%)
5% (53.57%) 15 (43.75%) 2,667,777 55.52 - 56.65 3,429,496 (56.25%) 13 (46.43%)
10% (39.66%) 23 (28.91%) 2,865,882 55.42 - 57.22 7,047,330 (71.09%) 35 (60.34%)
15% (33.33%) 25 (26.87%) 2,905,306 55.37 - 57.43 7,907,859 (73.13%) 50 (66.67%)
50% (34.62%) 27 (28.19%) 3,110,206 55.01 - 57.44 7,922,859 (71.81%) 51 (65.38%)
100% (36.14%) 30 (28.19%) 3,130,326 54.89 - 57.49 7,973,551 (71.81%) 53 (63.86%)
all (35.29%) 30 (28.18%) 3,130,326 54.89 - 57.54 7,977,851 (71.82%) 55 (64.71%)

Whole telecom sector and other techs are getting hit

Hi Ains. Can you try & provide L2 for OOM & VOD when posting during the day, Thanks. What do you think will be the outlook for US & US mkts today. Volumes are low except for shares which have taken off such as your holding in Telewest!

morning

A lot of markets are closed today and we have a short week next week .... US futures already off a little and our market being called down by the 'sell in May' peeps. Yesterdays last minute downturn was generated by end of month squaring of books - we are told.

Sector down 0.88% from just over 1% a minute or two ago


I think 56p todays close but suspect overall markets will be off a tad.


ains


Buy orders Sell orders
Num(%) Num Vol(%) Vol VWAP Vol Vol(%) Num Num(%)
1% (58.33%) 7 (69.05%) 870,400 54.95 - 55.85 390,180 (30.95%) 5 (41.67%)
5% (61.11%) 11 (66.77%) 1,216,196 54.82 - 56.02 605,226 (33.23%) 7 (38.89%)
10% (60.61%) 20 (63.27%) 1,442,396 54.56 - 56.45 837,253 (36.73%) 13 (39.39%)
15% (52.08%) 25 (58.42%) 2,509,622 52.98 - 58.51 1,786,159 (41.58%) 23 (47.92%)
50% (52.00%) 26 (58.26%) 2,514,522 52.97 - 58.54 1,801,159 (41.74%) 24 (48.00%)
100% (51.85%) 28 (57.71%) 2,526,642 52.87 - 58.72 1,851,851 (42.29%) 26 (48.15%)
all (50.00%) 28 (57.65%) 2,526,642 52.87 - 58.92 1,856,151 (42.35%) 28 (50.00%

mmO2 puts down phone on sell-off
Richard Inder, Daily Mail
1 May 2003

HONES outfit MMO2 wants 500m more for its struggling German arm than its Dutch rival KPN is prepared to pay, dashing lingering hopes of an imminent deal. The sale would crystallise further huge losses.



KPN has made an informal offer of as much as 1bn for the German network, but O2 chief executive Peter Erskine wants 1.5bn. KPN would combine the network with its own EPlus to take on leaders Vodafone and T-Mobile.


Even 1.5bn would be an ignominious exit, at best 15p per pound invested by O2's former parent BT. BT and its partners ran up huge losses building the network. BT then spent 5bn taking control and a further 5bn on a 3G licence.


The City believes O2 is worth more without Germany - which is losing around 20m a month. Since O2 sold its Dutch network this month at a 1.4bn loss its shares have rallied 10%. They fell 2p to 55 3/4p.


That deal stemmed some 100m annual cash losses, giving Erskine time to strike a harder bargain.


KPN believes O2 will eventually be pushed back to the negotiating table by German laws which will force it to build a new 3G network covering 25% of the population by end-year. The longer O2 delays, the more it will have to spend on its own network, which might make it less attractive to KPN.




2003 Associated Newspapers Ltd. All

Thanks Ains. Can you please provide VOD also next time you post OOM L2. So what do you now think will happen with OOM. Will it stay in the 55-58 range or fall now? The above article did you not find out any news on 1Bn offer from any other sources?

I think it will be subject to weakness until we see + news



Buy orders Sell orders
Num(%) Num Vol(%) Vol VWAP Vol Vol(%) Num Num(%)
1% (72.22%) 13 (83.68%) 2,205,396 54.68 - 55.74 430,180 (16.32%) 5 (27.78%)
5% (68.18%) 15 (77.69%) 2,247,196 54.67 - 55.93 645,226 (22.31%) 7 (31.82%)
10% (63.89%) 23 (73.65%) 2,452,396 54.54 - 56.34 877,253 (26.35%) 13 (36.11%)
15% (54.90%) 28 (65.84%) 3,519,622 53.42 - 58.41 1,826,159 (34.16%) 23 (45.10%)
50% (54.72%) 29 (65.69%) 3,524,522 53.41 - 58.44 1,841,159 (34.31%) 24 (45.28%)
100% (54.39%) 31 (65.15%) 3,536,642 53.34 - 58.62 1,891,851 (34.85%) 26 (45.61%)
all (52.54%) 31 (65.10%) 3,536,642 53.34 - 58.82 1,896,151 (34.90%) 28 (47.46%)





Buy orders Sell orders
Num(%) Num Vol(%) Vol VWAP Vol Vol(%) Num Num(%)
1% (52.54%) 31 (76.08%) 12,650,228 121.56 - 122.79 3,976,770 (23.92%) 28 (47.46%)
5% (53.57%) 45 (72.45%) 13,675,928 121.46 - 123.07 5,201,139 (27.55%) 39 (46.43%)
10% (50.81%) 63 (70.49%) 15,677,228 120.98 - 123.96 6,562,832 (29.51%) 61 (49.19%)
15% (48.94%) 92 (65.20%) 17,023,344 120.47 - 125.86 9,086,756 (34.80%) 96 (51.06%)
50% (46.92%) 99 (62.38%) 17,119,218 120.38 - 127.38 10,324,242 (37.62%) 112 (53.08%)
100% (46.28%) 112 (62.10%) 17,304,468 120.07 - 128.06 10,560,925 (37.90%) 130 (53.72%)
all (45.34%) 112 (62.06%) 17,304,468 120.07 - 128.32 10,580,838 (37.94%) 135 (54.66%

L2 on both looking relatively strong despite showing some weakness after PMI figs?

Buy orders Sell orders
Num(%) Num Vol(%) Vol VWAP Vol Vol(%) Num Num(%)
1% (66.67%) 12 (71.61%) 2,021,896 54.62 - 55.41 801,766 (28.39%) 6 (33.33%)
5% (63.64%) 14 (66.66%) 2,063,696 54.61 - 55.58 1,031,992 (33.34%) 8 (36.36%)
10% (61.11%) 22 (63.49%) 2,268,896 54.47 - 55.91 1,304,519 (36.51%) 14 (38.89%)
15% (50.94%) 27 (59.37%) 3,336,122 53.31 - 57.79 2,282,925 (40.63%) 26 (49.06%)
50% (50.91%) 28 (59.25%) 3,341,022 53.31 - 57.82 2,297,925 (40.75%) 27 (49.09%)
100% (50.85%) 30 (58.81%) 3,353,142 53.23 - 57.97 2,348,617 (41.19%) 29 (49.15%)
all (49.18%) 30 (58.76%) 3,353,142 53.23 - 58.14 2,352,917 (41.24%) 31 (50.82%

Is L2 on both looking relatively weak? Please post the L2 for VOD also, Thanks.

Can do the oom but dont often look at vod ...... whole sector and market is weak - the earlier news on OOM does not help in the short term. vols high side of average. i see a buying opportunity coming up


ains



Buy orders Sell orders
Num(%) Num Vol(%) Vol VWAP Vol Vol(%) Num Num(%)
1% (64.71%) 11 (77.21%) 3,377,600 53.85 - 54.80 997,000 (22.79%) 6 (35.29%)
5% (61.54%) 16 (68.01%) 3,501,190 53.82 - 55.00 1,647,000 (31.99%) 10 (38.46%)
10% (57.14%) 20 (61.57%) 3,584,814 53.78 - 55.26 2,237,226 (38.43%) 15 (42.86%)
15% (45.10%) 23 (63.85%) 4,612,616 53.12 - 55.67 2,612,053 (36.15%) 28 (54.90%)
50% (41.38%) 24 (57.07%) 4,617,516 53.11 - 56.87 3,473,159 (42.93%) 34 (58.62%)
100% (41.94%) 26 (56.78%) 4,629,636 53.06 - 56.98 3,523,851 (43.22%) 36 (58.06%)
all (40.63%) 26 (56.75%) 4,629,636 53.06 - 57.10 3,528,151 (43.25%) 38 (59.38%)