.

Pen/GH are oroven and will produce revenue but their are costs to consider?

The well has been completed as a gas producing well and 2.5km of pipeline will be laid to the Hajd Gas Production Facility, where condensate will be recovered and the gas processed and sold into the main Hungarian gas pipeline network.

The other area's are still ti be proven(we had our share of dusters),so while theirs much to play for one must not count the chickens just yet and these onclude the propects which will become company makers if successful?
Fontana while an appraiisal well is complcated,the 1st well gave hydrocarbon shows but was abandoned,so its very much fingers crossed at this stage?
What we have this minute is encouraging and proves revevue to drill these bigger prospects,so i repeat much to play for?
aimho
cyril

Well, 3 more drills for the PEN area we already know about for December (PEN-106, PEN-101 and PEN-104AA) however now there are 3 more coming in the other Hungarian area following the success of GH-1 (be it GH-2, GH-3 and GH-4 or whatever they want to call them).


http://www.proactiveinvestors.co.uk/companies/news/8288/fd-capital-says-encouraged-by-string-of-successes-from-ascent-resources-8288.html

................The broker called this “another excellent piece of news for Ascent” and said this success validates the play concept for three other similar structures within the licence boundaries. Planning should be now underway for drilling those new locations.....................


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Proselehes i agree theirs more to come and looking forward to updates,didn'r mean to sound negative just realistic?
cyril

From OJ at IV.

Here is the area that I am very interested in. It is the roughly 60 square mile area that we'll drill in through 2010 in terms of our 12.5% working interest in the Panhandle area.

The wells drilled thus far are 3 for 3. Two good one for just HHE and JKX at Hajdunanas and the one just announced the Gh-1 at Gorbehaza. The area has big(ger) gas reserve potential in 4 different possible payzones...2 in the Pannonian and 2 in the Miocene. What is different that the Pen area is the almost perfect quality of the Pannonian sandstone sequences and the fact that the deepest Miocene has oil potential and shows in the area. Imagine, they have not managed to get the Miocene into production and yet on three wells they have essentially dst's 38 mmscf.d (30 for the 2 Hajd. wells and 8 for the Gh-1 well). The next Panhandle well will go down along the yellow line (app) between Gorbehaza and Hajdudorog and south of Hajdunanas.




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Leni's presentation but they have a small percentage in the Ascent Hungary PEN license so some info is of interest to AST holders.

http://www.proactiveinvestors.co.uk/genera/files/companies/leni_gas_presentation_17_sep.pdf

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Excellent post by OJ on his take on the Hungary PEN area seismic.

http://investorvillage.com/smbd.asp?mb=12050&mn=4593&pt=msg&mid=7931848

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Rumours have it that not only will Fontana-1 in Italy be spudding in coming weeks that also we will likely have a Hungarian drill spudding as well.

Given the raging success of GH-1 and the fact they have a second, and much larger, already ready to go, based on the same analysis that led them to the GH-1 potential, then it may be we see GH-2 very soon as well.

This one is said to be substantially larger than GH-1 in size.

Bring it on, 2 drills ongoing in the month of October will be nice.

And we still have 3 PEN drills planned in December :)

Summary of the Peneszlek (PEN) wells.

PEN-104A is still in production but depleting down and nearing its end.

PEN-105 - drilled and found gas reserves and flowed at far higher rates (significant amounts for reserves and flows). Being put into production.

PEN-106 - to be drilled. 4 way closed structure south of the PEN-105 location.

PEN-101 - was going to be a sidetrack of PEN-102 but following 3D seismic will now be a new well targeting gas reserves.

PEN-104AA - following 3D seismic a new well at the PEN-104 location will be drilled targeting reserves higher than has already been produced by the original PEN-104 and the sidetrack PEN-104A combined.

PEN-9? - more work is ongoing on this well, new location will be chosen as original PEN-9 tested gas/water from the Miocene.

++++

PEN-9 should be drilled in 2010.

PEN-106 / PEN-101 / PEN-104A should all be before year end 2009, and perhaps the first one starting in October 2009 it seems.

++++

PEN-104A presently in production.

By end Q1 2010 from just the PEN area there should be PEN-104AA, PEN-105, PEN-106, PEN-101 all in production.

The pic below is not accurate but only intended to give a rough idea of where the action is going to be taking place at the PEN area.




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Like the word "substantial" in there for this PEN-104AA sidetrack.

Also news that for Fontana-1 (Anagni) the drilling rig will be mobilised second week of October.


http://www.investegate.co.uk/Article.aspx?id=200909280700097282Z

RNS Number : 7282Z
Ascent Resources PLC
28 September 2009

Commences PEN-104AA Sidetrack

Ascent Resources plc, the AIM-traded oil and gas exploration and production company, through its 45.23% owned subsidiary PetroHungaria Kft ('PetroHungaria'), announces the commencement of a further sidetrack of the PEN-104 well ('PEN-104AA'), to test a substantial Miocene volcani-clastic (tuffaceous) prospect in the Penzlek field in the Nys permits of north eastern Hungary. The target for the sidetrack, identified on the 3D seismic that was acquired last year, will be drilled from the existing PEN-104A wellbore on essentially the same trajectory to a depth anticipated to be equivalent to a vertical depth of approximately 1,360 metres.

The rig that will used to drill the well is the same one that recently drilled and completed the nearby, successful, PEN-105 well. The Partners in PetroHungaria have decided that, due to the immediate availability of the drilling rig and associated services, along with the near complete depletion of the PEN-104A sand and the consequent increasing water production, that this is an ideal time to undertake these operations. PetroHungaria anticipates that, with the successful completion of drilling, production at the site will resume within a month.

PEN-104A is a sidetrack of the original Penzlek PEN-104 well and was drilled to recover gas from an undrained fault compartment in the Pannonian Sands identified on 3D seismic. The combined production from both PEN-104 and PEN-104A is approximately 1.0 Bcf, yielding a satisfactory recovery factor of over 70% of the originally estimated gas in place for these reservoirs.

Ascent Managing Director Jeremy Eng said, 'This is an excellent opportunity to explore this highly promising prospect, which we believe has the potential to add significant reserves to the PEN-104 well. Immediate availability of the drilling equipment has presented an ideal opportunity to allow us to complete the drilling swiftly and minimise disruption to gas production at the site. We look forward to providing further updates as the work nears its completion.'

In Italy's Latina Valley, site works are nearing completion to allow Ascent to commence drilling the Fontana 1 geological appraisal well. The drilling rig is now expected to mobilise to the location in the second week in October.

The technical information contained in this release has been reviewed and approved Dr Clive Ninnes, Ascent's Engineering Manager. Dr Ninnes, a member of SPE has 28 years relevant experience in the evaluation of hydrocarbon resources.


* * ENDS * *

So the drill schedule could look like this then. and this is just for Hungary and Italy and ignoring anything else that could happen for AST, like farm outs, farm ins, SS deals, divestments etc.... (GH-2 and GH-3 refer to Panhandle 2 and 3)

I do like the look of this PEN-104AA news. We have here a well that has produced via original and sidetrack to the extent of its expected delivery but now, thanks to 3D seismic, we have the potential for more gas, in excess (how far we do not know) of the totals that has so far been produced by the original and first sidetrack. Thats all pure unexpected upside on success if this second sidetrack pays off. The Miocene in the PEN area is looking more and more exciting, and we could see the potential GIIP figure for this area greatly upgraded in future with some further Miocene success. I think PEN-105 results have influenced the bringing forward of this PEN-104AA. We know they say PEN-105 is substantially better than was expected, and I think the Miocene here in this area could deliver significant upside, perhaps in the region of 2 to 4 times the initial expectations of the PEN area so some are saying :


September 2009 - PEN-104AA spuds

October 2009 - PEN-104AA completes
October 2009 - Fontana-1 spuds in Italy (Anagni)
October 2009 - PEN-104AA results and on line producing
October 2009 - GH-2 spuds on the Hungarian PanHandle.

November 2009 - Fontana-1 TD and feedback and on to testing.
November 2009 - GH-2 TD and testing
November 2009 - Preparation for PEN wells in December.

December 2009 - Fontana-1 update
December 2009 - GH-2 testing results
December 2009 - PEN 101 spuds
December 2009 - GH-3 spuds
December 2009 - PEN-101 TD and testing.
December 2009 - PEN-106 spuds
December 2009 - PEN 101 testing results
December 2009 - GH-3 TD

January 2010 - GH-3 results of testing
January 2010 - Fontana-1 update
January 2010 - PEN-106 TD
January 2010 - PEN-106 results/testing

Trades flocking in sub 8p,with all that news on the horizon, i would expect 10p+,might even break 12p? aimho
cyril

Time Price Quantity Type Bid Offer Buy/Sell Total Buy Total Sell Total Unknown
29/09/09 16:56 8.0458 9,140,000 O 7.25 7.5 Buy 10,321,199 600,114 7,000

deos the earlier post indicate a time to top up at this sp

That large trade could indicate that GEM are now clear of their selling, so we might get an "Issue of Equity" RNS soon to tell us that 15 days ago they drew down for more cash.

To be expected with such a lively drilling schedule, I certainly guessed they had some time ago, so it would be nice to see the news.

PEN-104AA what is it ?

Seismic info from Oil Jack below on his pic copied over :




And Oiljacks opinion on the potential (up to 10 Bcf potential) :

Pen 104AA
As I have read it based on my interpretation of the seismic and my conversation from Hungary I believe it is a 4-6 bcf target with a 15% COS at something higher, say in the order of 8-10 bcf of gas (all recoverable).

More importantly, if the well works, we will have increased production right away. By the end of October as a matter of fact. Production might be in the 6 mmscf.d+ range. By the end of the year we will have more than maxed out the 10 mmscf.d gas handling facilities at the Pen 104 well pad with just 2 wells (Pen 104AA and Pen 105).

Pen 104AA COS...85% according to those that I have talked to.

GLTA, 45-50 cents might be cheap just on Hungary alone come the end of the year should our drilling luck continue.

OJ

As an example of why the Miocene potential is significant at the PEN area you only have to do some basic math. If the Miocene at PEN-104AA strikes and firms the ideas from what they found at PEN-105 that the Miocene is all upside, then you can potentially update the PEN area to be 80Bcf (likely a lot more) still recoverable.

Taking a conservative 5m Euro for AST per 1Bcf, this would mean even with the 80Bcf figure you get to AST 400m Euro.

Compare that to the market cap, and remember this is just one piece of the AST jigsaw.

PEN has got me more excited than the coming geologic appraisal well Fontana-1 (yes, please remember its a geologic well, not a producing well. First they check the geology, if they find oil and reservoir rock formation they can apply a permit to test, and then test, and if thats good they could then apply for a production license - so do not jump the gun, the idea of Fontana-1 is purely to test the geology and confirm, or not, if oil is there and help ascertain how much might be there as part of a course of work).

Anyway, back to PEN. PEN-105 appears to be very significant and "under wraps" for now. PEN-104AA if good might yield a serious upgrade for the PEN field, and for Ascent too.

It looks like, from rumour, that the gas handling facilities for the PEN area in Hungary are planning to be upgraded from the present capacity of 10mmscf/day to a new higher 18mmscf/day.

Again this would suggest that flow rates from the PEN-105 well are very good and should be long term (few years production) and that they expect and hope for a similar vastly upgraded flow rate and size of find at PEN-104AA.

PEN-104AA news should come week commencing 12th October, sometime during that week imv.

If we go for PEN-105 at 6mmscfd, PEN-104AA at 4mmscfd and then PEN-101 / 106 giving another 8mmscfd then by end Q1 2010 Ascent could have over 40% of 18mmscf of daily production.

To be conservative we could suggest that net to AST there is 7mmscf/day of production from the PEN area by end of Q1 2010.

Thats a lot of money for Ascent on a daily basis, and if we get some decent reserves upgrades (PEN-15 circa 10Bcf ? / PEN-104AA circa 10Bcf ? / PEN remaining area's circa another 60 Bcf ?) then this is long term production that seriously will upgrade the outlook of AST.

I think its worth reiterating at this time too :

Fontana-1 is a "geological appraisal well".

It is being drilled purely to test the features of the geology at that area following the 2D seismic.

Its not going to flow gazillons of barrels, its not going into production, at the initial stage it is purely and only a "geological appraisal well".

This means they will find out what the rock nature and formation is, and whether it contains oil or not.

If it contains oil *hurray*, then AST will have to apply for either a testing license to convert from a "geological appraisal well" into a testing well, and then test the formation for oil flows

OR

They then apply to drill a follow up well (appraisal) but with the intention of it being a production well from the off.


Fontana-1 being a success will be that there is good reservoir rock and it contains oil. But that is all we will know for a month or two, as they will have to apply for a testing permit and then test the formation.

It will be a long process which will be in the sidelines of view with the ongoing Hungarian Panhandle and Hungarian PEN area developments.

Anyone expecting the share price go up 5 times just on Fontana-1 initial results if good is mistaken. Good news will price itself in yes, but the process of turning news into "booked reserves" will take many months, if that is what happens, and the size of any find etc.. will be purely speculation until much further work is done after Fontana-1 results.

------

Oh, and OJ reckons PEN-104AA news around the 20th October.

We are midway (IMO) through the final GEM draw down, so the present price action is to be expected. They normally sell as much as they can at higher prices and then short down to the minimal value they are allowed to sell at in order to get the "average" price of the share lower over the 15 day period.

The longer they can now hold the price down "end of each day" the lower the average price will be that they get the shares at.

They also normally start the price moving upwards as the 15 day period nearly ends......so they can sell any leftover shares at much higher than they get them at.

I would expect therefore for at least another 5 working days the price will be weak end of the day and then a solid period of rising price will be due into PEN-104AA news and also Fontana-1 spudding.

Perfect buying time now, I snaffled some at 7.25p and will attempt to do the same any day that GEM try to weaken the price before in the afternoon before close, in the coming 5 to 7 working days.