EWRobson
- 20 Jan 2005 18:13
The first ASOS Challenge was successful in the sense that it taught us a few lessons on investment timing. Only three of 11 shares ended in profit and that included ASOS itself: congratulations to legend for BNH and bosley for SEO. Back to the drawing board for the rest of us (over the year the portfolio would have thrashed any opposition!).
Participants welcome for the second challenge. Primary objective is to find shares that will double in value by 1st July, beating ASC in the process; secondary to be most successful stock-picker in terms of the value of your 20K portfolio. Rules are:
1.Each participant has 20K which can go into 1,2,3 or 4 shares in units of 5K.
2.ASC has 20K and is team yardstick, not in individual portfolios.
3.Duplication between entrants OK with no upper limit for total for one share.
4.Start weekend of 21st Jan. Buy price half way between closing offer and mid.
5.Latest time of entry to be 8 pm on Sunday, 23rd Jan.
6.Challenge to close Friday, 1st July.
7.Entrants can switch up to a total of 10K; av. of Friday close bid and mid.
8.Progress reports to rank shares by performance but also participants (initial only to protect from the ridicule of outsiders!).
Participants welcome. Just post selection here or on ASC thread.
Eric
Kivver
- 30 Apr 2005 08:09
- 246 of 315
hI, sorry not posted much on bgc, but it was all a speculative punt on their main prospect 'Varisolve' getting american approval for trials. It has been rejected once but chances are it will get a second opportunity once the concerns are ironed out.
I prefer the long term opportunities on my other punt trt (transense technologies). Areoplanes have been completely electronic for a long time now and road going vehicles are going the same way. Cars, lorries, coaches and buses driven and controlled (including the steering) by electronics, scary but true.
bosley
- 30 Apr 2005 08:49
- 247 of 315
yep. still there! (i so wish this was the moneyam challenge!!)
dawsinho
- 30 Apr 2005 10:02
- 248 of 315
Eric, Thanks for the all the effort on keeping the asos challenge going, very informative. So my asos challenge portfolio has got a kick up the backside hey. Watch out Bosley, well maybe... lol
ITR - Loads of info on the bb, in a nutshell Interregnum are a Technology merchant bank who advise/invest in technology companies, they also have a number of subsidiary companys as well. All sounds very boring, but if you dig a little deeper you'll see Interregnum is ideally positioned to take advantage of the slight upturn in the technology market.
Business seems to be going very well since the turn of the year and their has already been a positive impact from seven advisers who we're employed just before the turn of the year. Interregnums ace card is its agreement with Destiny USA which is expected to generate significant undisclosed advisory revenues, whilst working with some of the largest and most innovative technology companies in the world
This week Interregnum agreed to merge its subsidiary companies, Wireless Holdings and Cellular Design Services, with Red-M (Communications), with the intention of floating the combined business on AIM in the first half of 2005.
Hope this helps.
EWRobson
- 30 Apr 2005 22:13
- 249 of 315
ITR is, in my view, worth a closer look. The share was at 1 in the dot-com boom but has reinvented itself as merchant bank. The Destiny arrangement does look very significant and there could be a substantial one-off profit from the AIM floatation. Wirth a visit to dawsinho's bb - thanks for the psot here, d.
Eric
EWRobson
- 06 May 2005 22:18
- 250 of 315
SECOND ASOS CHALLENGE PORTFOLIO
Actually, not a bad week with 0.1% drop in portfolio value given the continued weakness of the AIM market.
epic cost___ shares_ price_ value gain% wk13 wk14 wk15
SEO_ 7.19___ 456900_ 20.75_ 94807 188.6 11.1 -7.8 0.0_ BBSSUUW(137)
BGC_ 84.8___ 5900___ 136.5_ 8054_ 61.0_ 18.2 1.3_ -2.5 K(137)
HCEG 63_____ 7935___ 93.0__ 7380_ 47.6_ -4.3 -12.6 6.9 O(151)
NLR_ 394.5__ 5080___ 531.5_ 27000 34.7_ -3.3 -15.3 8.1 CDMM(137)
AGL_ 128.25_ 3900___ 164.5_ 6416_ 28.3_ 0.0_ -1.2 0.0_ B(137)
DGM_ 18.19__ 110000_ 22.75_ 25025 25.1_ 17.1 -3.1 -2.2 BEMS(137)
CFP_ 0.28___ 3570000 0.35__ 12495 25.0_ 2.5_ 1.2_ -15.7 WY(137)
BAG_ 811____ 615____ 941.5_ 5790_ 16.1_ 2.0_ -4.2 -1.9 P(151)
CRDA 327.375 1525___ 380.0_ 5795_ 16.1_ -1.3 -3.2 2.7_ P(151)
ITR_ 7.81___ 110000_ 9.0___ 9900_ 15.2_ 1.8_ 21.4 5.9_ HH
IDS_ 212.5__ 4700___ 242.5_ 11398 14.1_ 1.7_ 3.5_ -2.4 GH(151)
BGT_ 130.5__ 7660___ 146.5_ 11222 12.3_ -5.8 -3.6 -1.0 JJ(137)
DFD_ 136____ 3675___ 152.5_ 5604_ 12.1_ -4.5 -2.7 4.5_ A(151)
KCOM 62_____ 16100__ 65.0__ 10465 4.8__ 3.9_ -1.5 -0.8 OO(151)
RSG_ 466.25_ 1070___ 485.0_ 5190_ 4.0__ 0.0_ -8.0 -1.0 P(151)
CEY_ 12.625_ 39600__ 12.75_ 5049_ 1.0__ 12.5 -14.3 -5.6 I(137)
GWP_ 120.25_ 8315___ 120.0_ 9978_ -0.2_ 7.0_ -10.8 3.9 EE(151)
TRT_ 87_____ 5750___ 86.0__ 4945_ -1.1_ -7.4 -2.9 -5.5 K(151)
ACE_ 258.25_ 1935___ 254.0_ 4915_ -1.6_ -2.2 -0.4 2.0_ G(151)
MOB_ 230.75_ 2165___ 223.5_ 4839_ -3.1_ -2.9 -7.3 -2.4 C(151)
TND_ 22.5___ 111000_ 21.75_ 24143 -3.3_ 11.9 -8.5 1.2_ LLLLR(173)
PCI_ 10.625_ 47000__ 10.25_ 4818_ -3.5_ -10.9 -2.4 2.5 T(151)
GHH_ 191.5__ 2610___ 180.5_ 4711_ -5.7_ -0.5 -5.8 0.6_ G(151)
CIU_ 162.25_ 3080___ 151.0_ 4651_ -6.9_ -4.1 -1.2 -5.9 G(173)
IDOX 11.75__ 42500__ 10.75_ 4569_ -8.5_ 5.0_ 4.8_ -2.3 V(173)
PAY_ 255.75_ 1955___ 230.5_ 4506_ -9.9_ -0.4 -2.4 -4.9 M(173)
WNN_ 268.5__ 1790___ 241.5_ 4323_ -10.1 0.0_ -1.4 -1.0 C
AEN_ 697.5__ 717____ 625.0_ 4481_ -10.4 -3.1 -13.3 0.8 J
BPG_ 667.625 1500___ 592___ 8880_ -11.3 -1.3 -3.2 -1.8 DP(151)
AUG_ 256.25_ 3900___ 222.5_ 8678_ -13.2 0.0_ -6.3 0.0_ DE(173)
CASH 142.25_ 3515___ 122.5_ 4306_ -13.9 4.5_ -12.6 0.8 C(173)
THUS 15.19__ 32900__ 13.0__ 4277_ -14.4 -7.0 0.0_ -1.9 O(151)
PET_ 53.75__ 9300___ 45.5__ 4232_ -15.3 -5.1 -26.7 65.5 R(177)
SLV_ 11.625_ 40450__ 9.75__ 3944_ -16.1 0.0_ 0.0_ 0.0_ D
BNH_ 125.25_ 15970__ 97.5__ 15571 -22.2 -10.7 1.1 5.4_ AIRR(173)
NML_ 5.31___ 85750__ 4.125_ 3537_ -22.3 -8.3 0.0_ 0.0_ W
PDX_ 231____ 2165___ 175.5_ 3800_ -24.0 -3.9 -8.9 3.5_ A(177)
SPS_ 50.5___ 39600__ 38.0__ 15048 -24.8 -1.3 -15.2 13.4 AIKK(173)
EPD_ 51_____ 9805___ 38.0__ 3726_ -25.5 4.8_ -5.7 -8.4 I(173)
GMC_ 19.125_ 52700__ 13.75_ 7246_ -28.1 9.3_ -5.1 -1.8 TW
MDW_ 9.09___ 247500_ 6.5___ 16088 -28.5 -3.3 0.0_ -10.3 JSVV(137)
PMD_ 0.875__ 571400_ 0.625_ 3571_ -28.6 -8.0 -4.3 13.6 Y(173)
FTO_ 8.69___ 57500__ 6.125_ 3522_ -29.5 -1.8 -3.6 -9.3 Y(173)
TAD_ 9.375__ 53300__ 6.175_ 3291_ -34.1 0.8_ -11.3 5.1 Y(177)
KYS_ 15.875_ 63000__ 10.25_ 6458_ -35.4 -2.3 -2.4 0.0_ UU(173)
DES_ 62.25__ 8030___ 37.0__ 2971_ -40.6 -3.6 -17.5 12.1 H(177)
XEN_ 7.44___ 67200__ 4.3___ 2890_ -42.2 -6.0 -0.6 0.0_ V(173)
ASC_ 78.5___ 25480__ 43.0__ 10956 -45.2 -1.0 -3.0 -11.3 ZZZZ(177)
BPRG 67.25__ 14870__ 31.25_ 4647_ -53.5 21.2 -12.0 -14.4 TT(137)
Totals__________________ 470102.4 6.8__ 3.0_ -5.6_ -0.1
small-cap__ 2891.87_______ 2802.8 -3.1_ -0.8 -3.0_ 0.0
SEO is unchanged during the week but an announcement formalising the ASDA deal is likely in the forthcoming week and could lead to a breakthrough the current resistance level. As recoimmended this week in Shares one that should be in each of our portfolios.
HCEG and NLR have recovered somewhat. However, the main mover of the week is PET. An RNS denied any knowledge for the reason for a move following a rumour in the FT that PET had won a contract in southern Iraq. Certainly, the settling down of the Iraq situation is a prerequisite of progress. Not for the faint-hearted or those who have suffered in the past!
ITR has strengthened further. I wrote of its merits last week. Its worth adding that it is now clear that the flotation value of its holding in Cellular Design Services (CDS) is likely to be more than the current cap., implying a likely doubling in the price by end June.
ASC has reached a new nadir in its fortunes. Yours truly has bought back in, reckoning the current prospective pe to be derisory. Two strong broker buy signals. When will it turn round. I have a sneaking feeling that it will be this week - based on the end of the "mid-season sale on Monday" and the likelihood that that marks the completion of the new warehouse operation. Anyone joining me? I'll put out the light if I find no-one else there.
B 107.7 K 2.6_ R -15.7
S_ 93.5 C 1.1_ Y -16.8
U_ 45.5 G -0.1 I -17.9
W_ 42.5 D -2.6 V -27.0
M_ 21.3 L -3.4 T -37.8
O_ 10.6 J -3.6 Z -45.2
P_ 6.1 H -7.2
E_ 2.9 A -14.7
The investor table is thoroughly boring, for all except bos, seb and markus, who has climbed back to third. Now, I believe I will be challenging before the end of the competition (CFP and NML, plus possibly GMC) and am also backing dawsinho with his ITR holding. Anyone else who reckons that their portfolio will bring them into contention?
Eric
moneyplus
- 06 May 2005 23:00
- 251 of 315
Not me but my time will come!! At the moment I'm afraid to look.
Have a good weekend all and here's to a better market next week. MP
markusantonius
- 06 May 2005 23:20
- 252 of 315
I would definately fancy my chances, Eric, if the deadline was end of 2005. But sadly may run out of time as the Competition nears its Summer-end. Still confident of consolidating the bronze medal position though!
bosley
- 07 May 2005 13:03
- 253 of 315
still there, totl, but i'm very surprised that agl hasn't moved at all. two good pieces of news and nothing happened. confusing!!
EWRobson
- 07 May 2005 22:44
- 254 of 315
Now its a shame that we don't have a prize for the winner. My suggestion is that bos donates the prize. He is extremely confident at winning so it wouldn't cost him anything. It would do his reputation (and popularity) a great deal of good. So, how about it, bos?
Eric
markusantonius
- 07 May 2005 23:17
- 255 of 315
I agree with Eric, here..... prizes down to 3rd position - OK, 4th as Eric is there at the moment and we are contesting the bronze medal!
dawsinho
- 08 May 2005 09:53
- 256 of 315
How about everybody gets a prize, Bos should be loaded after investing in seo, so he can buy........ hmmm don't think he'll agree to that :-)
Anyone who looking to spice up their holdings should take a look vml (vane minerals) Got lots on the go and released great news regarding Uranium deals this week, lots more to come this week me feels.
bosley
- 08 May 2005 13:42
- 257 of 315
no problem. i will donate the prize for the winner!!!! :)
EWRobson
- 08 May 2005 23:57
- 258 of 315
Note that - post 256. bos is a man of his word. Did you say 1000, bos: you wouldn't want to be outdone by Shares, would you?
bosley
- 09 May 2005 07:09
- 259 of 315
i will quite happily be outdone by shares, eric.
EWRobson
- 13 May 2005 23:47
- 260 of 315
SECOND ASOS CHALLENGE PORTFOLIO
Another difficult week for the small-cap and AIM markets which dominate our portfolio. The small-cap index is down 1.3% on the week and 3% overall. Only 16 of the 49 shares in the portfolio have posted gains on the week. Nevertheless the portfolio is up 8% overall and 1.1% on the week. Afurther gain in Stanelco (SEO) of 8.4% accounts for the weekly gain and the share is now 21.5% of the portfolio. An object lesson in running profits.
epic cost___ shares_ price_ value_ gain% wk14 wk15 wk16
SEO_ 7.19___ 456900_ 22.50_ 102803 212.9 -7.8 0.0_ 8.4_ BBSSUUW(137)
BGC_ 84.8___ 5900___ 124.0_ 7316__ 46.2_ 1.3_ -2.5 -9.2 K(137)
CFP_ 0.28___ 3570000 0.405_ 14459_ 44.6_ 1.2_ -15.7 15.7 WY(137)
HCEG 63_____ 7935___ 90.0__ 7142__ 42.9_ -12.6 6.9 -3.2 O(151)
AGL_ 128.25_ 3900___ 164.5_ 6416__ 28.3_ -1.2 0.0_ 0.0_ B(137)
NLR_ 394.5__ 5080___ 503.0_ 25552_ 27.5_ -15.3 8.1 -5.4 CDMM(137)
DGM_ 18.19__ 110000_ 21.75_ 23925_ 19.6_ -3.1 -2.2 -4.4 BEMS(137)
ITR_ 7.81___ 110000_ 9.125_ 10038_ 16.8_ 21.4 5.9_ 1.4_ HH
BAG_ 811____ 615____ 939.5_ 5778__ 15.8_ -4.2 -1.9 -0.2 P(151)
DFD_ 136____ 3675___ 157.0_ 5770__ 15.4_ -2.7 4.5_ 3.0_ A(151)
IDS_ 212.5__ 4700___ 241.0_ 11327_ 13.4_ 3.5_ -2.4 -0.6 GH(151)
CRDA 327.375 1525___ 369.0_ 5627__ 12.7_ -3.2 2.7_ -2.9 P(151)
TRT_ 87_____ 5750___ 92.0__ 5290__ 5.7__ -2.9 -5.5 7.0_ K(151)
GWP_ 120.25_ 8315___ 124.5_ 10352_ 3.5__ -10.8 3.9 3.8_ EE(151)
PCI_ 10.625_ 47000__ 11.0__ 5170__ 3.5__ -2.4 2.5_ 7.3_ T(151)
CEY_ 12.625_ 39600__ 13.0__ 5148__ 3.0__ -14.3 -5.6 2.0 I(137)
MOB_ 230.75_ 2165___ 236.5_ 5120__ 2.5__ -7.3 -2.4 5.8_ C(151)
RSG_ 466.25_ 1070___ 475.0_ 5083__ 1.9__ -8.0 -1.0 -2.1 P(151)
KCOM 62_____ 16100__ 63.0__ 10143_ 1.6__ -1.5 -0.8 -3.1 OO(151)
ACE_ 258.25_ 1935___ 251.5_ 4867__ -2.6_ -0.4 2.0_ -1.0 G(151)
BGT_ 130.5__ 7660___ 125.5_ 9613__ -3.8_ -3.6 -1.0 -14.3 JJ(137)
THUS 15.19__ 32900__ 14.25_ 4688__ -6.2_ 0.0_ -1.9 9.6_ O(151)
TND_ 22.5___ 111000_ 20.75_ 23033_ -7.8_ -8.5 1.2_ -4.6 LLLLR(173)
CIU_ 162.25_ 3080___ 146.5_ 4512__ -9.7_ -1.2 -5.9 -3.0 G(173)
PAY_ 255.75_ 1955___ 230.5_ 4506__ -9.9_ -2.4 -4.9 0.0_ M(173)
CASH 142.25_ 3515___ 126.0_ 4429__ -11.4 -12.6 0.8 2.9_ C(173)
GHH_ 191.5__ 2610___ 167.5_ 4372__ -12.5 -5.8 0.6_ -7.2 G(151)
WNN_ 268.5__ 1790___ 231.5_ 4144__ -13.8 -1.4 -1.0 -4.1 C
AUG_ 256.25_ 3900___ 220.0_ 8580__ -14.1 -6.3 0.0_ -1.1 DE(173)
BPG_ 667.625 1500___ 570___ 8550__ -14.6 -3.2 -1.8 -3.7 DP(151)
IDOX 11.75__ 42500__ 10.0__ 4250__ -14.9 4.8_ -2.3 -7.0 V(173)
AEN_ 697.5__ 717____ 592.5_ 4248__ -15.1 -13.3 0.8 -5.2 J
SLV_ 11.625_ 40450__ 9.75__ 3944__ -16.1 0.0_ 0.0_ 0.0_ D
BNH_ 125.25_ 15970__ 100.0_ 15970_ -20.2 1.1_ 5.4_ 2.6_ AIRR(173)
PDX_ 231____ 2165___ 183.5_ 3973__ -20.6 -8.9 3.5_ 4.6_ A(177)
PET_ 53.75__ 9300___ 39.75_ 3697__ -26.0 -26.7 65.5 -12.6 R(177)
SPS_ 50.5___ 39600__ 37.25_ 14751_ -26.2 -15.2 13.4 -2.0 AIKK(173)
NML_ 5.31___ 85750__ 3.875_ 3323__ -27.0 0.0_ 0.0_ -6.1 W
MDW_ 9.09___ 247500_ 6.625_ 16397_ -27.1 0.0_ -10.3 1.9 JSVV(137)
FTO_ 8.69___ 57500__ 6.25__ 3594__ -28.1 -3.6 -9.3 2.0_ Y(173)
GMC_ 19.125_ 52700__ 13.75_ 7246__ -28.1 -5.1 -1.8 0.0_ TW
EPD_ 51_____ 9805___ 36.5__ 3579__ -28.4 -5.7 -8.4 -3.9 I(173)
PMD_ 0.875__ 571400_ 0.6___ 3428__ -31.4 -4.3 13.6 -4.0 Y(173)
ASC_ 78.5___ 25480__ 52.5__ 13377_ -33.1 -3.0 -11.3 22.1 ZZZZ(177)
TAD_ 9.375__ 53300__ 6.25__ 3331__ -33.3 -11.3 5.1 1.2_ Y(177)
XEN_ 7.44___ 67200__ 4.625_ 3108__ -37.8 -0.6 0.0_ 7.6_ V(173)
KYS_ 15.875_ 63000__ 9.25__ 5828__ -41.7 -2.4 0.0_ -9.8 UU(173)
DES_ 62.25__ 8030___ 35.0__ 2811__ -43.8 -17.5 12.1 -5.4 H(177)
BPRG 67.25__ 14870__ 30.75_ 4573__ -54.3 -12.0 -14.4 -1.6 TT(137)
Totals_____________________ 475177 +8.0_ -5.6 -0.1 +1.1
small-cap___ 2891.87_______ 2765.7 -4.4_ -3.0 0.0_ -1.3
The main gainer in the week is, wait for it, ASOS. Initially triggered by a piece in the Independent making reference to a forthcoming positive trading report. The warehousing problems and consequent extended sales are now history and the share should continue to progress. Your author has been rebuilding the stake and was delighted to call the bottom at 42.5p, putting his money where his mouth was! Its worth taking a look as all the lost ground could be regained in the next few weeks.
Other positive movers include CFP, recovering the previous week's loss with optimism about trading figures and THUS with some speculation on the column about a possible bid. Optomistic: could you give a brief intro. re THUS as the scenario looks interesting. Then comes SEO with bullish tip forecasting sp of 50p and advising buying up to 25p. I don't think any of the fan club are selling and some are still gorging themselves on more.
One reason given for the continued weakness of small shares is that investors have been selling small cap funds which leads them in turn to sell off part of their portfolios. Main loser this week is Bright Things (BGT) an early success story of this portfolio - there seems no obvious reason, particularly in light of the forthcoming launch of their Bubble product for pre-school children. Any thoughts, Jules?
B 118.5 K -0.1 A -12.9
S 104.6 C -0.7 I -18.0
W_ 52.4 G -2.9 R -18.5
U_ 51.9 D -5.5 V -26.8
M_ 16.3 H -7.4 Z -33.1
O__ 9.9 L -7.9 T -36.4
P__ 3.8 Y -12.1
E__ 3.1 J -12.5
It goes without saying that the bos, seb duo stretch their lead still further at the front of the field. Yours truly sneaks into third place ahead of markus. moneyplus is in glorious isolation in 5th with only three others in positive territory.
moneyplus
- 14 May 2005 00:02
- 261 of 315
What can one say--the leaders again share pickers extraordinaire!! I must do better for next week. have a good weekend all.
bosley
- 14 May 2005 09:09
- 262 of 315
yep!!
EWRobson
- 14 May 2005 12:46
- 263 of 315
bos: is that 'yep' or 'yap'? I reckon moneyplus is the shares picker - bos and seb have only ever picked one successful share! lol!
Eric
bosley
- 14 May 2005 13:56
- 264 of 315
i protest,eric. look at the amount of people who picked seo. it's the other two picks that seperate myself and seb from the pack. and it's "yep", still top of the league .
EWRobson
- 14 May 2005 22:34
- 265 of 315
OK, just a bit of a wind up, plus encouragement for a lady who could well have been top without SEO! By the way, what league are Doncaster in? lol!
Eric