< "> edit this post http://www.investegate.co.uk/afren-plc-%28afr%29/rns/trading-statement-and-operations-update/201301210700069619
http://www.investegate.co.uk/afren-plc--afr-/rns/2012-full-year-results/201303250700107200A/

In an attempt to cut down the header page,i've transferred some of the older news to Page1 post No.3.

http://www.oil-price.net/index.php?lang=en
http://www.ft.com/home/uk

http://www.investegate.co.uk/Article.aspx?id=201111020700081674R
http://www.investegate.co.uk/Article.aspx?id=201111150700250723S
http://www.investegate.co.uk/Article.aspx?id=201112010705051251T
http://www.investegate.co.uk/Article.aspx?id=201201170700146472V
http://www.investegate.co.uk/Article.aspx?id=201201230701479690V
http://www.moneyam.com/action/news/showArticle?id=4323758
http://www.investegate.co.uk/Article.aspx?id=201204170700164488B
http://www.investegate.co.uk/Article.aspx?id=201205140700212304D
http://www.investegate.co.uk/Article.aspx?id=201205210700407032D
http://www.moneyam.com/action/news/showArticle?id=4430164
http://www.investegate.co.uk/afren-plc-%28afr%29/rns/significant-new-seychelles-3d-seismic-programme/201212120700052973T/
http://www.investegate.co.uk/afren-plc--afr-/rns/2013-half-yearly-results/201308230700063334M/
http://www.investegate.co.uk/afren-plc--afr-/rns/ogo-drilling-and-resources-update/201311190700083404T/
http://www.investegate.co.uk/afren-plc--afr-/rns/trading-statement-and-operations-update/201401280700096280Y/
http://www.investegate.co.uk/afren-plc--afr-/rns/interim-management-statement/201405200700135209H/
http://www.investegate.co.uk/afren-plc--afr-/rns/interim-management-statement/201410300700116483V/
http://www.moneyam.com/action/news/showArticle?id=4942625
http://www.moneyam.com/action/news/showArticle?id=4943375

From Mr Poshman on another board.
Thanks to the guys over on LSE for the link.

http://www.thesundaytimes.co.uk/sto/business/Industry/article1442084.ece

So it looks as if it was payments from Oriental (partner at Ebok, Okwok and OML115) that has triggered the suspension.

I've looked over the RNS again and it clearly states unauthorised rather than illegal payments (and the article states that Oriental is not accused of any wrongdoing) so IMO this sounds less and less likely to be bribes / kickbacks etc, because if so, then Oriental would also be found to have done something wrong.

The statement in the 2nd paragraph of the RNS states "In the course of an independent review on the Board's behalf by Willkie Farr & Gallagher (UK) LLP of the potential need for disclosure of certain previous transactions to the market,".

I think its been well known that Afrens corporate governance has always had a bit of a cloud over it, and from the wording and knowledge that its Oriental thats the otyher party, it suggests that these were potentially conflicts of interest that may have not been declared to Afren. For example, did the directors advise Oriental on the farmins that Afren took? Was this illegal (I don't think so) or was it a major conflict of interest (absolutely).

As a worse case, (if the above is the issue) then maybe the government could take the blocks off us. Do I think thats likely, well no, but there could be a fine, but I guess this depends on what other companies were involved in the farm in discussions. It may lead to having to pay compensation to these companies or it may lead nowhere as it may mean that Afren were the best company available to farm in to the blocks anyway.

I'm sure more will come out in time, but IMO it looks like payments for advice to Oriental which should have been provided to the market (and the company) at the time.

Derwent - Thanks for your post - we may soon have the answer.

if you think that this does not reek of backhanders and similar, then you must be an awful lot more naive than i thought possible

assuredly no hurry to buy

Mr Cynic - Of course it reeks of backhanders etc we all know that.
- That will be the outcome no doubt -

I worked two years in Saudi ( Khobar / Damam ) and two years in Nigeria ( Calabar / Port Harcout / Lagos ), besides many other dodgy countries.
I used to pay out the bribes and backhanders and kept the local police sweet. etc

The question is, will the "deals" have a material effect on the core Company or not.
I am presently betting that it will not, that a few heads should roll, and things will
carry on pretty much as usual.

One big problem is - how long will it take to get some answers, as uncertainty will only adversely effect the share valuation.
We could see a sharp upward move when information is known ?

Unfortunately I do not have a crystal ball, and can not predict the future.
For today I am staying in at 110p a share.
Lets see if you are right

bribes and backhanders?????
tut tut tut ...... merely secondary commission to keep the wheels oiled and turning :-)

Seems you also know how business is done in reality in the Middle East.
Fair practice and moral standards are mainly high ideals for the UK Government.

Shame on me, but we made a profit and had some questionable issues settled amicably.

we don't deal directly in nigeria or even angola, but have lots of biz in both far east and middle east

What the City thinks of Afren
By Harriet Mann | Tue, 5th August 2014 - 09:42
What the City thinks of Afren
With Afren's (AFR) chief executive and chief operating officer suspended for allegedly benefitting from unauthorised payments, the City is taking no chances and the oil explorer's share price has plunged by almost 30%. But with the underlying business apparently unaffected by the shenanigans, there are some who think this could be a great buying opportunity.

Admittedly, bargain hunting on Monday morning provided only a brief respite, and further selling during the afternoon session left the share price at just 107p, a two-year low. Those multi-year highs registered in December seem an age away.

And the conclusion of an investigation or release of Afren's delayed interim results is unlikely to happen any time soon. Analysts at JP Morgan estimate that the debacle has lost around $700 million (£416 million) of shareholder value. "In a sector which has been struggling to find friends, this is the last type of news it needs," said the broker.

But Marc Anis-Hanna, an oil & gas analyst at VSA Capital, told Interactive Investor that he thought the market had acted irrationally to the news.

"We think the market has over reacted, valuing the potential financial impact of possible fines (there is nothing affecting the company operationally) at around £400 million Afren was appealing before this negative news and is now even more attractive in our view as it is trading just below its core NAV [net asset value] with potential for more Nigerian production coming on stream during the year."

Interactive Investor also hears that a large number of brokers have been buying shares for their customers with a high-risk tolerance.

"The company assets are worth more than the current valuation, plus the very low market cap opens some room to possible takeover of Afren by another firm," adds Anis-Hanna. "Therefore, at these levels I see more positive upside rather than negative, including the legal risk which has obviously been taken into consideration into the share price."
Underperformance

A week before the announcement, Afren had underperformed the European exploration and production sector by 10%, posting total returns in the year so far of 13%, "triggered...by a relative dearth of well results and lighter-than-anticipated production in the first-quarter of 2014, casting some doubts on Ebok production potential," said James Thompson at JP Morgan.

He was ready to take advantage of any negative share price reaction to the, now-delayed, interim results, anticipating that weaker production results would drag down the share price. He pencilled in first half production of 36,000 barrels of oil per day (boepd), from 35,500boepd in the first quarter, and revenue in the period of $600 million, assuming a Brent crude price of $109/bbl. Gross profit was expected to be down 34% year-on-year to $247 million and pre-tax profit down 37% to $164 million. These numbers don't look good, but Thompson was confident of a better six - nine months ahead; with re-risking of discovered resource, particularly in Nigeria - one of 2013's stand-out discoveries - and news on Ain Sifni in Iraq.

Assuming no impact on net asset value (NAV), Afren is trading at a discount of around 26% to core NAV, "the lowest level since mid-2012", added Thompson. Although this has triggered take-over speculation, Thompson expects "potential predators" to await the investigation outcome before pouncing. That would seem sensible.

While Investec downgraded Afren to 'hold' and put its target price under revision, others upgraded or reiterated their positive stance on the company. JP Morgan stayed 'overweight' and Westhouse Securities reiterated its 'buy' recommendation.

Westhouse said: "This does not affect the operations and financials of the company. We note that this independent investigation was executed on behalf of the board and very little detail is known, but the payments were not made by Afren.

"Until there's more clarity on the issue and further steps by the board, the stock may be volatile. But this may be a sign of improving corporate governance and we will wait for the outcome of the investigation. Fundamentally, the company has a self-sufficient business in Nigeria and promising set of assets in Kurdistan."

Whether investors take advantage of this share price dip depends on their risk/reward profile. Remember, bargain hunting pushed up the share price Monday morning, but reversed later in the day. Afren shares will remain incredibly risky. True, if there's no impact on net assets, the shares might look cheap, but all analysts agree we need more information. When it comes - and it will - the shares will either rally hard or sink like a stone. We'll find out soon enough.

This article is for information and discussion purposes only and does not form a recommendation to invest or otherwise. The value of an investment may fall. The investments referred to in this article may not be suitable for all investors, and if in doubt, an investor should seek advice from a qualified investment adviser.

just dipped back in at 100.10, but if i see 110 any time soon, i'll be out once more, and perhaps at even a bit lower than that

Brave call Mr C. If 95p doesn't hold then you have to go back a couple of years to find chart support.

PE ratio is now probably about 2.5 or 3 years earnings to equity price .. ouch

It is now priced at catastrophy value, ready for break up and scrapping !

When the dust clear's , there will be a bid but at what price depend's on the outcome.

you speak with the certitude of fred, more's the pity :-)

Dumped my holding whilst still in profit.....just.,.

http://www.spreadbetmagazine.com/blog/african-queen-hits-the-rocks-james-faulkner-on-afren.html

When you think about it -
The CEO and COO are suspended, and replacement directors are working.
Afren plc is said not to have lost financially ? Have they lost physically or what ?

Afren it seems can carry on pretty much as usual without those two directors,
and if they did return, who would trust them again.
The new temporary directors have good oil industry experience and may provide
some fresh thinking into the Company.

Lets get Kurdistan on stream with the new pipelines having been put into operation
there, and lets get Madagascar drilling started now that elections have been
held in Madagascar and we have a more stable Madagascar Government


I those two could be cleared out ( the CEO and COO ), it certainly would create
more trust, and we probably would have more City etc support and confidence in
Afren after what seems to be several dodgy deals by directors.

This incident may be no loss to Afren, but in fact an unplanned benefit.

The shares could now be worth more than before they crashed, with some
fresh and less self centered directors in place !
Maybe we should not fret about this incident at all - it could be a good opportunity.

bad rns,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,

RNS Number : 5974O

Afren PLC

08 August 2014






Afren plc




Operations update at Barda Rash, Kurdistan region of Iraq



London, 8 August 2014



Afren plc ("Afren" or the "Company") has taken the precautionary step to temporarily suspend operations at the Barda Rash field in light of heightened regional security related issues. Working with our local security advisors, Afren is implementing a phased withdrawal of non-essential field personnel from the Barda Rash field. All other Afren operations in the Kurdistan Region of Iraq remain unchanged. Afren will continue to closely monitor events on the ground in consultation with our security team and the relevant authorities. It is expected that we will return to field operations as soon as it is prudent to do so. The suspension is not expected to have a significant impact on the Group's cashflow.

from Oriel Securities:

Afren - temporarily suspend operations at Barda Rash in Kurdistan Region of Iraq. In light of heightened regional security related issues the company is implementing a phased withdrawal of non-essential field personnel from the Barda Rash field. The suspension is not expected to have a significant impact on the Group’s cashflow. Bottom line: In our yesterday’s upgrade note on Afren we already took a more conservative production ramp-up view on Barda Rash asset as we saw it as an obvious candidate to experience operational delays. Therefore, this morning’s announcement has no impact to our valuation or view on the company. Similarly, with the recent share pull back, we don’t see this morning’s news having a significant impact on the shares on the market. If anything, this may have a tendency to save some of this year’s capex that might have been allocated to this asset in Kurdistan.

Too risky at the mom I expect a fall to 80p.