Thought Id start this one going because its rather dead on this board at the moment and I suppose all my usual muckers are either at the Stella tennis event watching Dim Tim (lose again) or at Henly Regatta eating cucumber sandwiches (they wish,...NOT).

Anyway please feel free to just talk to yourself blast away and let it go on any company or subject you wish. Just wish Id thought of this one before.

cheers GF.

"There is no realistic possibility of UKIP being able to achieve anything"


Ummm I think they already have ... 100 Conservative MP's crapping themselves for starters and the Libs and Labour squirming around the subject without actually saying anything.

Problem the Cons got is their party is split on leaving the EU while UKIP aren't.

so Dil, do you think that ukip will (can) win enough seats in a general election to give them the balance of power?
if so, how many seats do you think ukip may win?

First time I've seen that article hils and all very plausible except the bit about Ireland joining back up with us and Cameron still being leader of the Tories in 2021.

The "iron Chancellor" made me laugh too , could think of a few better descriptions starting with clueless.

cynic - no I don't but I do think they can cock it up for the Tories and possibly let Labour in the back door.

Libs have already stated if they hold the balance they don't care who they side with.

The difference is that UKIP don't really have a party. It is just a ragbag collection of people want to stand for election. There is no grass roots party. They have stiired things up and I am not sure Cameron is that disappointed. If he plays it right, and it looks like he is, it will all be to the good of his party.

I remember well the excitement involved in the abortive attempts of the SDP to be a credible party. They had far more momentum than UKIP and they threw in the towel. UKIP is a one trick pony. No one is going to trust them with any amount of real power. They are a very useful tool to concentrate peoples mind on the topic of the EU. If you look at the charts above, you will see that there is 40% of people who want to definitely and/or probably stay in the EU. That shows you what a steep hill UKIP have to climb. It also shows them with only 18% of the vote. The Libs in the past have got nearly 30% of the vote and only achieved less than 10% of the seats.

Agree there Haystack but the SDP did manage to cock it up for Labour for years.

does one assume Dil, that you'ld be more than happy for labour to get in with say <30% of the vote? ..... and no, i have no idea who polled what % of the vote in the last general election, and of course with a fptp system, the % has little bearing on the number of seats won

UKIP may cause problems for the Conservatives, but I think their effect will be shorter lived than the SDP. Hopefully, the electorate will see the Conservatives as the only chance of a referendum, which it is. Only last Saturday, Miliband said he would not promise a referendum. Labour could be painting themselves into a corner over Europe. Conservatives seem to be taking the right line. There is no point in them saying that they would leave the EU as 40% would either definitely or probably want to stay in the EU. By saying that there would definitely be a referendum they get the votes of the ins and the outs. Labour by saying no referendum only get the ins. UKIP are left with some of the outs. The size of that fraction will depend on whether the voters expect UKIP to have any power in the situation. Hopefully the Conservatives will regain many UKIP supporters that realise that UKIP cannot actually do anything about Europe.

cynic

A coalition with Labour would be very unstable unless they do a lot better than last time. The Libs will probably do worse. A coalition with Lab and Libs in the last election would not have lasted. The numbers were such that the Conservatives plus the NI mob could have voted down the government anytime they wanted.

less of a "wishful thinking" post of yours for a change :-)
very very difficult to predict of course, but assuredly the economy is improving even if the weather isn't
apparently there are now hugely more first-time-buyer mortgages being approved and if the disillusioned electorate perceives that there will indeed be limitations put on immigrants (how?) and a referendum on eu (bet the wording will be biased!), then the conservatives may just escape the noose

I think the way things are going cynic all parties will struggle to get over 30%. This will effect the Tories more than Labour but with the Libs probably getting whacked then it is possible that Labour could get a small overall majority.

And no I won't be happy because I want a referendum , I want out.

so will you be voting ukip or conservative?

I've found the table for the 2010 general election, but i'm afraid it won't print out in a decent format ..... however, it was as follows

Conservative - 10,706,647 = 36.1% (306 seats)
Labour - 8,604,358 = 29.0% (258 seats)
Lib/Dem - 6,827,938 = 23.0% (57 seats)
UKIP - 917,832 = 3.1% (0 seats)

Sundry other parties - Green, Sinn Fein, DUP, Plaid Cymru, SDLP, Alliance won 27 seats + 1 independent

Long way off yet cynic but doubt if I'll vote Tory because I think the Chancellor is a clown.

dil do what all my tory friends are going to do votE
UKIP FOR A FRESH START AND CLEAN UP THE UK FROM ILLEGAL IMMIGRANTS ONCE AND FOR ALL .

mark Pritchard says he is a right wing tory he is a wimp more labour than
most labour MPs

Oh gawd.. he's off again.

Dil - assuming you will actually vote, which i think is the case, then you have something of a problem ..... i take it that you are pretty much set anti-europe, so you could vote ukip, as no other party is set that way ..... however, if that then lets in labour though a split conservative vote, then you'll be totally stymied as there is no way labour will to get uk out of europe, and indeed, they are terrified even to allow a referendum on the matter

stan - i have never squelched anyone, so shall not do so even to the vilalge idiot .... i find the best way is just to skate past his page-cluttering nonsense

Well he certainly like a rant,.. don't you Tanks -):