I am a trader as well as an investor and hopefully this thread will reflect both aspects ....

We should start by saying this is a highly speculative share and the market takes no prisoners.

Over the last 18 months I made lots twice in the early days - then lost it back - bought a million at 2.6p average - founded the TAG - bought another half a million or so at sub 1p - sold most at average 4.25 - bought back at 2.2p and less - sold most at 3.5p and now buying back - overall a good net profit at this time.

I think the d4e will happen (say 90% chance) and the 3% currently talked about will give or should give a price equating to say 3/5p. Longer term on succcess of d4e and progress in the sales market the shares should move to around 10p - assumming markets are not in freefall.

I am looking to buy at any time and hoping for a war generated dip - when I do I will let you know.

The TAG site is a great place for catching up on the TWT news and I will post here as well.

Currently trading on TWT is light (1.7 million traded) and the price is down a littlw with a wide spread (2.01/2.35p). This is a sets share and you must expect a crtain amount of manipulation in these troubled times - FTSE down over 4% intraday

I have a core holding of at least half a million shares and intend to be a long term investor at this time.


ainsoph


http://www.investoraction.co.uk - currently we have 804 registered members holding around 100 million shares in total

I guess you are right on both scores but I get easily bored and in addition to my longer term interests I do like to bottom fish. TWT is a typical example - I like the longer term prospects and happy to hold for the D4E and beyond but they are also good for swing trading and even intraday because of newsflow or even the absence of newsflow. It is unfortunate that these kind of shares attract the wrong kind of poster/investor. Sadly everyone loses out as the more skilled or informed posters don't bother.


ains

worth a read

BT Q3 profit seen up
By Braden Reddall, UK telecoms correspondent


LONDON (Reuters) - BT (LSE: BT.L - news - msgs) is expected to report a rise in third-quarter earnings this Thursday, under a cloud of worries about growing competitive threats and the state of its pension fund in a slumping equity ADVERTISEMENT

market.


Ben Verwaayen had barely settled in to his new London office overlooking St. Paul's Cathedral when the new BT chief executive had to preside over the last set of third-quarter results.


The country's dominant telecom group had just suffered months of major upheaval, selling businesses as well as a record-breaking tranche of shares to cut a 30 billion-pound debt mountain by more than half.


Verwaayen, whose arrival was seen as the start of better times, had little specific to offer at last year's third-quarter results. But his plan for "substantially" cheaper high-speed Internet access would set the tone for BT's year.


Analysts do not expect next week's third-quarter results to prove momentous. But Verwaayen, as head of a business focused mostly on the less exciting but steadier UK domestic market, will be under pressure to deliver signs of growth in both earnings and the number of broadband Internet users.


"If boring and steady means it is on track to meet its targets, then that is a good thing," said David Brundish, telecoms analyst at JP Morgan (NYSE: JPM_pj - news) .


Verwaayen promised last April to deliver compound annual growth of 25 percent in earnings per share (EPS) and six to eight percent growth in revenue in the three years to 2005. However, he had to abandon the latter target three months ago when it became clear it may prove too ambitious.


Analysts expect revenue for the quarter to December of between 4.76 billion and 4.83 billion pounds, representing at the high-end growth of less than four percent over the third quarter last year.


Forecasts for earnings per share range from 3.5 pence to 4.0 pence, up from 2.4p last year, thanks to cost cutting and its debt reduction drive, which helped lower interest payments. Pre-tax profit estimates range from 460 million to 530 million pounds, compared with 381 million a year ago.


HOW MUCH NEED FOR SPEED?


BT slashed the wholesale price of broadband in half last April to less than 15 pounds per month, as part of a goal to have one million broadband customers on its network by mid-2003 and somewhere around five million by 2006.


Pierre Danon, chief executive of BT Retail, said on Friday that more than 100,000 broadband users had signed up to BT's network in January, putting the total at well over half a million.


But with cable rivals NTL (NYSE: NLI - news) and Telewest (LSE: TWT.L - news) clawing their way out of financial crisis, BT has formidable competition for broadband access. NTL and Telewest, though their networks pass by just over half of Britain's homes, boast more than three quarters of a million broadband users in total.


BT's traditional market for voice calls is also under threat from two strong retail players: number one UK supermarket Tesco (LSE: TSCO.L - news - msgs) and Europe's largest mobile phone retailer Carphone Warehouse (LSE: CPW.L - news) . Both recently announced plans to sell home phone services as well.


Furthermore, analysts have wondered for months how much BT will have to contribute to its pension fund to make up for stock market losses. Opinion is divided on the potential impact, but they agree that the uncertainty is weighing on the shares.


"Apart from exceptional Q3 results, the positive trigger towards our target price is more likely to come when the latest valuation of BT's pension deficit is published in May," SG Securities analyst Steve Trowbridge said of his 230p target.


BT shares were up two percent at 177 1/2 pence on Friday afternoon. The stock has lost about a fifth of its value over the past 12 months, but outperformed European peers in the DJ Stoxx European telecoms index by five percent in that time.

Edging up again today on low volume - less than a million shares in two hours


ains

NTL implies 1GB/day broadband cap
Monday 10th February 2003
From The Register


NTL has published a new user policy which defines a "normal" data download cap of 1GB/day.

Here is the spiel

ntl: home's broadband and dial-up services are intended for normal recreational or educational use by individuals and families and our pricing and network architecture have been designed accordingly. Customers who use the services more heavily than a normal home user will reduce the performance of the network for other customers.


"Normal use" of the service is defined as up to 1 gigabyte downstream of data transfer daily (which equates to approximately 200 music tracks, 650 short videos, 10,000 pictures or around 100 large software programmes downloaded per day).

In a statement on NTLHellWorld, the company's curious sheep in sheep's clothing website, NTL adds:

"The objective of this clarification of the policy is to ensure that customers continue to get a great broadband service at all times. The vast majority of customers will not be affected by this at all.

ntl will only be contacting the small percentage of customers whose use of the service PERSISTENTLY exceeds normal levels, thereby potentially reducing the overall product performance for THE VAST MAJORITY OF other customers."

For one customer's reaction, check out this protest site: www.dont-pay-ntl.co.uk. It explains in big red letters why the new terms are 90 per cent worse than before.

NTL's user policy makes for interesting reading too: it's here.

Online farmers are reaping the rewards
By Robert Uhlig, Farming Correspondent
(Filed: 11/02/2003)


Farmers are turning to the internet in increasing numbers to challenge the domination of the supermarkets. More than 300 million worth of farm produce was sold online last year.

Farm trade on the internet was unheard of five years ago, but last year one in 10 of Britain's 300,000 farms marketed produce on the internet, generating sales of 325 million, according to a study by the National Farmers' Union. The study scotched the image of farmers as often isolated and out of touch, relying on visits to local markets to catch up on news.

Nowadays, more than eight out of 10 farmers are connected to the internet, using it primarily for information, research, banking and news.

Growth in internet use grinds to a halt
By Robert Uhlig
(Filed: 10/02/2003)


The growth in internet use is grinding to a halt, according to research by Oftel, the telecoms watchdog.

It found that despite a huge take-up of high-speed broadband services, demand has levelled off now that half the population is online.

Last year, both dial-up and broadband net access from home remained static at about 42 per cent of the population in Britain, according to Oftel.

Hoping that the figure will rise, the Government will begin campaign in May to persuade people to connect to the internet. National television advertisements and direct mailing will be targeted at the over-55s, women and ethnic minorities - the groups that are currently under represented on the internet.

However, according to Jupiter Research, the independent analysts, there is little room for growth. It predicts that the number of internet users will continue to grow slowly to about 51 per cent of the population in 2007.

Ministers have been studying countries such as South Korea, where six out of 10 people have broadband connections at home, to determine why internet usage is slowing in Britain.

A team from Brunel University found that new approaches were needed for broadband services to appeal to the half of the population yet to go online. In Korea, broadband is targeted at mothers, stressing the value of broadband services to, for example, education.

The researchers from Brunel University concluded that internet service providers needed to make broadband a critical utility similar to electricity, instead of regarding it as a desirable luxury.

Volumes are picking up at 6.6 million - spread has narrowed and we have edged up a little

ains



NTL wakes up to broadband PR catastrophe

Unlimited "is a trade name"

By Mike Magee: Monday 10 February 2003, 11:35 Inquirer


SUITS AT NTL woke up this morning to find they had a PR nightmare on their hands and have apologised for the "poor communications" that generated the furore, which broke over the weekend.
Aizad Hussain, managing director of NTL:Home, apologised for "poor communication" of its new policy limiting its broadband connections to 1GB downloads a day.

He has written a little letter in which he claims NTL will be "very flexible" about the download limits, but claimed some customers had confused gigabyte limits with kilobit speeds.

One of the problems is that NTL advertised an unlimited service, and customers were up in arms about this. Hussain now defines this as having a "trade name" unlimited and he says its broadband service is no longer called unlimited.

He said the intention of NTL was only to limit very frequent or persistent "heavy network use" that would affect other customers. Now NTL will only contact customers who exceed the daily data limit for three or more days in a consecutive 14-day (fortnight) period, he said.

One telling line in the statement is that the new Ts&Cs will not affect gaming applications at all this is of particular interest because as we reported last month, NTL has a deal with Xbox Online here in Blighty, aimed ot undercut BT Openworld.

One gigabyte of data a day, he said, is equal to 100 large software programs, 200 music tracks, 650 short videos, 10,000 pictures and 20,000 web pages.

Customers won't be disconnected but will be advised to moderate their limits.

Triple figure growth in European online sales - Visa EU




10 February 2003 - Consumer confidence in the Internet remains buoyant with total EU e-commerce sales for the last quarter of 2002 up by 136% compared to the same period in 2001, according to data from Visa EU.

The card organisation says over the last three months of 2002 European Web sites sold over 2.5 billion to Visa cardholders online, with over 31 million transactions processed in total.

Recent strong quarterly growth has helped sustain the increase with online transactions in the last quarter up by 40% compared to the previous three months. Sales volumes also increased, with the amount spent online up by a third (33%) in the latter half of last year.

NTL seeks to clarify 1GB/day broadband cap
By Tim Richardson
Posted: 10/02/2003 at 12:42 GMT


NTL has been stunned by the outcry from its broadband customers over the cableco's decision to cap usage of its broadband service to 1 gigabyte a day.

The announcement was sneaked out on Friday but caused such an uproar that senior execs have been forced to step in and clarify the cableco's position.

A protest site set up on Friday calling for customers not to pay their NTL bills until the matter is resolved, has already received more than 30,000 hits and 100s of emails from angry users.

In a poll of 760 punters on the cableco's own pet nthellworld.com site, half said they planned to ditch NTL and find another broadband provider because of the cap.

Others argue the cap defeats the whole reason for having broadband and are looking at ways to get NTL to overturn its decision.

However, in an open letter on nthellworld.com, ntl:home MD, Mr Hussain admitted that the cap was "poorly communicated" but insisted that it would stay.

In a Q&A the company said: "Our objective is only to limit very frequent or persistent heavy network use that can impact other customers. Therefore we will ONLY contact customers who exceed the daily data limit for three or more days in any consecutive 14-day period.

"If you occasionally exceed your data limit, it will not be a problem. Remember our goal is to give freedom and easy usage to our customers. This rule ensures that you have peace of mind and that we are able to reduce the unfair prolonged usage by a small number."

Indeed, NTL insists that the limit has been imposed more as a guideline. It is not trying to penalise "ordinary" users. Instead, it wants to target persistent abusers of its broadband service, many of whom, its believed, are running businesses on what the cableco insists is a domestic service.

It's still too early to say whether NTL has managed to appease its hacked-off punters.

Reply concerning Telewest, to: mynameispaul and ainsoph (several posts)
I've been a TWT supporter in the early days, anything that wakes up BT had to be good IMHO.
However, TWT is still in the hands of the Bankers, I understand, and any deal is likely to wipe-out shareholders...(doesn't it always?, we're not even consulted!).
The TWT action-group was/is professional & well intentioned but I'm not aware it achieved a "result" - as usual us small shareholders are cannon-fodder for the City "big-guns" - of course it's wrong but we are not orgainsed "before the event" - that's where the power will be..... If FTSE250 Co. will not address our concerns, board-room pay, dividends, overseas adventures, co jet etc....there will be an outflow of 1-2% of sharecap ( that's POWER!)- something that Institutions might consider a bellweather.

In the final analysis the only thing that matters is will you/me/we make money on out investment today, or tomorrow in TWT.

Their track-record isn't good, paying too much for trenches and too little to getting traffic - so their debt became unsustainable. Pretty low-tech stuf really.
If they couldn't get it right then (when there were "connectees" just waiting to sign up, ) WHAT chance have they got now, with AOL, NTL, BT all vieying for the punter's attention?
It may be true that more people are to be encouraged to use broadband, but it isn't without cost and all I see is these telcos cutting at each other's margiins.
That can't be good for investors. If that's the case, and I see no end to it, won't investors be stuffed once again?

I hear what you say hangon and the truest comment you have made is the one concerning 'will we make money from here'. I think we will - the 3% talked about is likely to be the minimum that will apply in a d4e. Our past calculations were based on around a post d4e a share minimum - meaning the current shares would be valued at a minimum 3p. This compares favourably with todays price. Over any period of time I would expect this to increase as markets improved and TWT demonstrated true profitability.

Did we make a difference - have a look aty what MONI shareholders got - half on one percent.

Retail shareholders should take more interest and you are absolutely right in thinking there is a need to get involved early in protecting your investment.

Is the market overcrowded - Not many alternatives to BSkyB but cable is one of them and can also offer broad band - the must have of the near future imho.


ains

Moved up again ..... 275 on the bid now with heavy early morning volume


ains

AINS,

TWT up 12% nice, hoping RED next one up.

Cheers

Ash

I keep hearing about RED - guess I must have a serious look

02/11 08:43
Telewest May Make More Money Than It Spends by Fourth Quarter
By Dex McLuskey


London, Feb. 11 (Bloomberg) -- Telewest Communications Plc, the U.K.'s second-biggest cable-television company, may make more money than it spends by the end of 2003 after cutting costs, Managing Director Charles Burdick said.

The company expects spending on network and equipment in 2003 to be about 100 million pounds ($162.3 million) less than the 450 million pounds it probably spent on its network last year, Burdick said in an interview.

``Our plan says we'll be cash flow positive by mid-2004, but internally we're working toward the end of this year,'' Burdick said. ``It's a combination of good cost control, cutting capital expenditure fairly dramatically and the fact we're not paying interest on 3.5 billion pounds of debt.''

Telewest and NTL Inc., the No. 1 U.K. cable company, amassed about $26 billion of debt building networks and buying rivals to compete with Rupert Murdoch's British Sky Broadcasting Group Plc and BT Group Plc. Telewest will give bondholders 97 percent of the equity in return for all its bonds. NTL bondholders took control after the company reneged on repaying $10.9 billion of debt.

Burdick defined cash flow positive as profit after capital expenditure and interest charges.

The company may merge with NTL to compete with BSkyB, the U.K.'s biggest pay-TV company, and BT in providing faster Internet services, Burdick said. He hasn't discussed a merger with NTL recently, he said.

``I've always been consistent in saying we should merge,'' he said. ``The real battle out there is with BT and BSkyB, so my view has always been, once we figure out the liquidity situation, we should just get on with it.''

Telewest's shares, which have fallen 91 percent in the past year, closed yesterday at 2.5 pence on the London Stock Exchange.

The company may complete its reorganization plan by the end of the first quarter, Burdick said.

``These things always take longer then you think, but I'm hoping we'll be able to send something to our shareholders by the end of the quarter,'' he said.

volumes already over 8 million ...... up 10%



ains

Ainsoph,

Sorry I have changed my log in to Ash, for obvious reasons.
Well done for keeping the thread going with so much data on TWT.

Sorry the point I was making about Redstone Plc is the size of the market cap,if you remember TWT at the 0.65p low was valued at 18.677m market cap.

Now at 2.75p valued at 79.02m, having traded to as high as 136.489m market cap at 4.75p for a 3% of 1,260,000,000 t/o company.

RED is only 15.31m with 10.155m cash per 30.09.2002.

On RED you miss the huge Debt servicing costs, and let us say it got rated at 2.50 to 3 times t/o, based on 75m to 85m, big upside potential IMHO.

Beeson Gregory now their brokers.

I think might be a positioning play before BG hit the streets for RED IMHO.

Cheers

Ash

Anyone interested in joining my TAG please e mail my friend ainsoph at
ainsoph @blueyonder.com,. I cannot accept them myself, for obvious reasons

sounds interesting - as it happens I am very much into evg who now own BG ..... busy right now but will take a long look later this morning .... do I need another Telecom play? :-)) - They do say the sector is coming back in to favour



ains

NTL barraged with broadband complaints

Owen Gibson
Tuesday February 11, 2003


NTL: under fire over broadband limitations

Thousands of NTL subscribers to its high-speed internet access service have deluged the cable company with complaints after it imposed a limit on their use of its so-called "unlimited" service.

Customers are up in arms after NTL changed the terms and conditions of its internet services to limit the amount of music, video and web pages that they can download per day. Since the weekend thousands have deluged internet message boards and NTL chief executive Barclay Knapp with complaints.

The NTHellWorld website, a consumer site bought by NTL last year as part of a drive to improve customer service, has received more than 3,800 comments on the subject since Friday afternoon.

And a dedicated complaints website, www.don't-pay-ntl.co.uk, has also been set up to encourage subscribers to the broadband service not to pay their next bill or switch provider.

"This is an absolute disgrace. What are they on? This will cripple NTL," says one. Another customer labels the move an "outrage" while

ADVERTISEMENT

another adds, "I can't believe what I have just read. I have just signed up to broadband and the fact they are limiting it is not right".

According to those affected, the guidelines for the service were changed on Friday without their knowledge. Anyone downloading more than 1Gb of information per day for three days in the same fortnight will be blacklisted and risk having their connection terminated.

One gigabyte, equivalent to 1,024 megabytes, is a lot of information - an entire computer CD-rom takes around 600 megabytes of information.

NTL claimed it has taken the step to stop heavy users slowing down the network for everyone else, and argued that it was equivalent to downloading 20,000 web pages or 10,000 images a day.

"NTL's broadband and dial-up services are intended for normal recreational or educational use by individuals and families and our pricing and network architecture have been designed accordingly. Customers who use the services more heavily than a normal home user will reduce the performance of the network for other customers," it said in response to those who complained.

But broadband users who use their connection to download games, music and video claim that they will reach the new limit in just two and a half hours and are threatening to cancel their subscription and move elsewhere.

NTL has over 500,000 broadband subscribers to its 'Gold' service, which is 20 times faster than normal dial-up web access and its 'Silver' 512kb service, which is 10 times faster. They cost 35 per month and 25 per month respectively.

The uprising will worry NTL executives planning to make broadband the cornerstone of its "triple play" telephone, television and high speed internet proposition, which they hope will tempt customers away from Sky.

NTL chief executive Barclay Knapp said the move would not affect the vast majority of subscribers.

"We felt it was important to remind our customers of this policy as we were seeing a small but growing proportion of very heavy users sometimes degrading the service across the board for everyone - and some who abuse the service by, among other things, hosting commercial web sites from their homes," said Mr Knapp, who has recently led the company through a financial restructuring to halve its 12bn debt.

"Broadband is still in its early days as a technology, and we are trying very hard to find the right balance between service and cost so that our service can be truly universal," he added in an email to customers.

"NTL broadband is a good service and we want to keep it that way for all of our customers. It will not affect 99% of our customers. People can still surf for 24hours a day if they want to," added an NTL spokesman, saying that it planned to set up a "heavy users" group with those that had complained to try to find a way around the problem.

City first for broadband

EDWARD BLACK


EDINBURGH has topped a league of internet surfers with the Capital proving the most popular spot for high-speed internet use, according to new research.

The findings, from Telewest Broadband, indicate that as internet take-up develops in the UK, its Blueyonder broadband service is proving the most popular in Edinburgh.

Chad Raube, the director of internet services at Telewest Broadband, said the trend reflected the citys enthusiasm for things new.

He said: "Edinburgh, with its tradition for innovation, has enthusiastically adopted broadband from the off. We trialled our 1Mb broadband internet service in Edinburgh last year and the feedback we received was tremendous.

"By focusing on quality and consistently innovating, Blueyonder provides one of the best value residential broadband services in the UK today.

"Within our franchise areas, more people are taking Blueyonder than any other broadband provider."

According to researchers, broadband allows consumers to surf the internet up to 20 times faster than a traditional dial-up connection, without having to use a telephone line.

The service also allows people to download movies and music in an instant, send e-mails with large attachments and play games online with friends.

The south-west region of England, which includes Bristol, and the south-east of England follow closely behind Edinburgh in the league.

Telewest Communications is a communications and media group whose cables pass by 4.9 million homes and which provides a range of other services to 1.76 million houses.

The survey discovered that 8.1 per cent of homes in Edinburgh had adopted the Blueyonder broadband internet service as opposed to 8 and 7.2 per cent in the south-west and south-east of England respectively.