.

The pic below is not accurate but only intended to give a rough idea of where the action is going to be taking place at the PEN area.




.

Like the word "substantial" in there for this PEN-104AA sidetrack.

Also news that for Fontana-1 (Anagni) the drilling rig will be mobilised second week of October.


http://www.investegate.co.uk/Article.aspx?id=200909280700097282Z

RNS Number : 7282Z
Ascent Resources PLC
28 September 2009

Commences PEN-104AA Sidetrack

Ascent Resources plc, the AIM-traded oil and gas exploration and production company, through its 45.23% owned subsidiary PetroHungaria Kft ('PetroHungaria'), announces the commencement of a further sidetrack of the PEN-104 well ('PEN-104AA'), to test a substantial Miocene volcani-clastic (tuffaceous) prospect in the Penzlek field in the Nys permits of north eastern Hungary. The target for the sidetrack, identified on the 3D seismic that was acquired last year, will be drilled from the existing PEN-104A wellbore on essentially the same trajectory to a depth anticipated to be equivalent to a vertical depth of approximately 1,360 metres.

The rig that will used to drill the well is the same one that recently drilled and completed the nearby, successful, PEN-105 well. The Partners in PetroHungaria have decided that, due to the immediate availability of the drilling rig and associated services, along with the near complete depletion of the PEN-104A sand and the consequent increasing water production, that this is an ideal time to undertake these operations. PetroHungaria anticipates that, with the successful completion of drilling, production at the site will resume within a month.

PEN-104A is a sidetrack of the original Penzlek PEN-104 well and was drilled to recover gas from an undrained fault compartment in the Pannonian Sands identified on 3D seismic. The combined production from both PEN-104 and PEN-104A is approximately 1.0 Bcf, yielding a satisfactory recovery factor of over 70% of the originally estimated gas in place for these reservoirs.

Ascent Managing Director Jeremy Eng said, 'This is an excellent opportunity to explore this highly promising prospect, which we believe has the potential to add significant reserves to the PEN-104 well. Immediate availability of the drilling equipment has presented an ideal opportunity to allow us to complete the drilling swiftly and minimise disruption to gas production at the site. We look forward to providing further updates as the work nears its completion.'

In Italy's Latina Valley, site works are nearing completion to allow Ascent to commence drilling the Fontana 1 geological appraisal well. The drilling rig is now expected to mobilise to the location in the second week in October.

The technical information contained in this release has been reviewed and approved Dr Clive Ninnes, Ascent's Engineering Manager. Dr Ninnes, a member of SPE has 28 years relevant experience in the evaluation of hydrocarbon resources.


* * ENDS * *

So the drill schedule could look like this then. and this is just for Hungary and Italy and ignoring anything else that could happen for AST, like farm outs, farm ins, SS deals, divestments etc.... (GH-2 and GH-3 refer to Panhandle 2 and 3)

I do like the look of this PEN-104AA news. We have here a well that has produced via original and sidetrack to the extent of its expected delivery but now, thanks to 3D seismic, we have the potential for more gas, in excess (how far we do not know) of the totals that has so far been produced by the original and first sidetrack. Thats all pure unexpected upside on success if this second sidetrack pays off. The Miocene in the PEN area is looking more and more exciting, and we could see the potential GIIP figure for this area greatly upgraded in future with some further Miocene success. I think PEN-105 results have influenced the bringing forward of this PEN-104AA. We know they say PEN-105 is substantially better than was expected, and I think the Miocene here in this area could deliver significant upside, perhaps in the region of 2 to 4 times the initial expectations of the PEN area so some are saying :


September 2009 - PEN-104AA spuds

October 2009 - PEN-104AA completes
October 2009 - Fontana-1 spuds in Italy (Anagni)
October 2009 - PEN-104AA results and on line producing
October 2009 - GH-2 spuds on the Hungarian PanHandle.

November 2009 - Fontana-1 TD and feedback and on to testing.
November 2009 - GH-2 TD and testing
November 2009 - Preparation for PEN wells in December.

December 2009 - Fontana-1 update
December 2009 - GH-2 testing results
December 2009 - PEN 101 spuds
December 2009 - GH-3 spuds
December 2009 - PEN-101 TD and testing.
December 2009 - PEN-106 spuds
December 2009 - PEN 101 testing results
December 2009 - GH-3 TD

January 2010 - GH-3 results of testing
January 2010 - Fontana-1 update
January 2010 - PEN-106 TD
January 2010 - PEN-106 results/testing

Trades flocking in sub 8p,with all that news on the horizon, i would expect 10p+,might even break 12p? aimho
cyril

Time Price Quantity Type Bid Offer Buy/Sell Total Buy Total Sell Total Unknown
29/09/09 16:56 8.0458 9,140,000 O 7.25 7.5 Buy 10,321,199 600,114 7,000

deos the earlier post indicate a time to top up at this sp

That large trade could indicate that GEM are now clear of their selling, so we might get an "Issue of Equity" RNS soon to tell us that 15 days ago they drew down for more cash.

To be expected with such a lively drilling schedule, I certainly guessed they had some time ago, so it would be nice to see the news.

PEN-104AA what is it ?

Seismic info from Oil Jack below on his pic copied over :




And Oiljacks opinion on the potential (up to 10 Bcf potential) :

Pen 104AA
As I have read it based on my interpretation of the seismic and my conversation from Hungary I believe it is a 4-6 bcf target with a 15% COS at something higher, say in the order of 8-10 bcf of gas (all recoverable).

More importantly, if the well works, we will have increased production right away. By the end of October as a matter of fact. Production might be in the 6 mmscf.d+ range. By the end of the year we will have more than maxed out the 10 mmscf.d gas handling facilities at the Pen 104 well pad with just 2 wells (Pen 104AA and Pen 105).

Pen 104AA COS...85% according to those that I have talked to.

GLTA, 45-50 cents might be cheap just on Hungary alone come the end of the year should our drilling luck continue.

OJ

As an example of why the Miocene potential is significant at the PEN area you only have to do some basic math. If the Miocene at PEN-104AA strikes and firms the ideas from what they found at PEN-105 that the Miocene is all upside, then you can potentially update the PEN area to be 80Bcf (likely a lot more) still recoverable.

Taking a conservative 5m Euro for AST per 1Bcf, this would mean even with the 80Bcf figure you get to AST 400m Euro.

Compare that to the market cap, and remember this is just one piece of the AST jigsaw.

PEN has got me more excited than the coming geologic appraisal well Fontana-1 (yes, please remember its a geologic well, not a producing well. First they check the geology, if they find oil and reservoir rock formation they can apply a permit to test, and then test, and if thats good they could then apply for a production license - so do not jump the gun, the idea of Fontana-1 is purely to test the geology and confirm, or not, if oil is there and help ascertain how much might be there as part of a course of work).

Anyway, back to PEN. PEN-105 appears to be very significant and "under wraps" for now. PEN-104AA if good might yield a serious upgrade for the PEN field, and for Ascent too.

It looks like, from rumour, that the gas handling facilities for the PEN area in Hungary are planning to be upgraded from the present capacity of 10mmscf/day to a new higher 18mmscf/day.

Again this would suggest that flow rates from the PEN-105 well are very good and should be long term (few years production) and that they expect and hope for a similar vastly upgraded flow rate and size of find at PEN-104AA.

PEN-104AA news should come week commencing 12th October, sometime during that week imv.

If we go for PEN-105 at 6mmscfd, PEN-104AA at 4mmscfd and then PEN-101 / 106 giving another 8mmscfd then by end Q1 2010 Ascent could have over 40% of 18mmscf of daily production.

To be conservative we could suggest that net to AST there is 7mmscf/day of production from the PEN area by end of Q1 2010.

Thats a lot of money for Ascent on a daily basis, and if we get some decent reserves upgrades (PEN-15 circa 10Bcf ? / PEN-104AA circa 10Bcf ? / PEN remaining area's circa another 60 Bcf ?) then this is long term production that seriously will upgrade the outlook of AST.

I think its worth reiterating at this time too :

Fontana-1 is a "geological appraisal well".

It is being drilled purely to test the features of the geology at that area following the 2D seismic.

Its not going to flow gazillons of barrels, its not going into production, at the initial stage it is purely and only a "geological appraisal well".

This means they will find out what the rock nature and formation is, and whether it contains oil or not.

If it contains oil *hurray*, then AST will have to apply for either a testing license to convert from a "geological appraisal well" into a testing well, and then test the formation for oil flows

OR

They then apply to drill a follow up well (appraisal) but with the intention of it being a production well from the off.


Fontana-1 being a success will be that there is good reservoir rock and it contains oil. But that is all we will know for a month or two, as they will have to apply for a testing permit and then test the formation.

It will be a long process which will be in the sidelines of view with the ongoing Hungarian Panhandle and Hungarian PEN area developments.

Anyone expecting the share price go up 5 times just on Fontana-1 initial results if good is mistaken. Good news will price itself in yes, but the process of turning news into "booked reserves" will take many months, if that is what happens, and the size of any find etc.. will be purely speculation until much further work is done after Fontana-1 results.

------

Oh, and OJ reckons PEN-104AA news around the 20th October.

We are midway (IMO) through the final GEM draw down, so the present price action is to be expected. They normally sell as much as they can at higher prices and then short down to the minimal value they are allowed to sell at in order to get the "average" price of the share lower over the 15 day period.

The longer they can now hold the price down "end of each day" the lower the average price will be that they get the shares at.

They also normally start the price moving upwards as the 15 day period nearly ends......so they can sell any leftover shares at much higher than they get them at.

I would expect therefore for at least another 5 working days the price will be weak end of the day and then a solid period of rising price will be due into PEN-104AA news and also Fontana-1 spudding.

Perfect buying time now, I snaffled some at 7.25p and will attempt to do the same any day that GEM try to weaken the price before in the afternoon before close, in the coming 5 to 7 working days.

I am in the camp of "later the news comes" is better.

Last time, in a different area, the drill bit poked into the Miocene at PEN-104 area it resulted in water with some gas.

Gas sits atop of water so very early in this sidetrack, had they encountered water, they could have stopped.

The question is if they encounter no water will they keep on deepening the drill to gain more recoverable amounts of gas ?

Therefore no "early" news for me is good. This is not Gazatta were they were working on 2D seismic and got fooled by the formation.

This is PEN-104 area and they have 3D seismic and 2 other drills to base their drilling on, therefore surely in this case the longer the news is coming the more potential for another "substantial gas find".

Well, thats my rose tinted view. ( hoping there is no after hours Friday bad news coming ;) )

I am glad that AST threads have gone quiet, the hot money is out chasing other dreams presently which allows a good entry point for interested buyers in the event the news is good.

Should be PEN-104AA news next week.

On the market today its very level. You can buy 250K at 7.95p and you can sell 250K at 7.67p presently.

Watch your stop losses, even though you can sell at 7.67p I expect a "bid price" tree shake to 6.5p or even 6p.....not due to sells but to force the hands of people with stop losses to loosen up stock to fill buy orders. Be careful if you use stop losses.

Market tighter now, can buy just 125K now at the full 8p, or sell 500K at 7.71p.

Someone wants your stock, as there must be a buyer in the background and they are trying to work their buy order.

Market a bit tighter again presently you can :

Buy 100K at full 8p
Sell 300K at 7.76p

Ignore L2 and the MM's "advertised" prices at the moment.

As its now Tuesday the 20th, I would expect news on PEN-104AA at any time from today to next week Tuesday.

Just got to keep them fingers crossed for good news when the RNS comes out. PEN-104AA has some serious upside potential in terms of size of reserves.

Demand is there today.


You can buy max 125K on line at 8.35p

You can sell 350K at 8.05p


L2 3 v 1

WINS/CANA/LIBC bidding at 7.75p advertised and just SCAP offering at 8.5p

Proselenes, thanks for keeping us up todate,been a little tied uo lately.
cyril

cyril.

Rumours from Hungary say PEN-104AA is good, on testing now and we will get news end of this week or early next.

Also Fontana-1 appears to be going to spud 1st week of November.