This sums up much of my thinking - I hold a few and swing trade a few and even trade intraday sometimes ......

I think there is a lot of slack that management can cut out of the costs and would also anticipate sector consolidation ..... good value currently and have been holding their own in a falling market. Lot of US interest.

ains


Edited by Dominic White
(Filed: 08/02/2003)


Texting makes MmO2 sexy but it's also risky

More and more Britons are discovering the joys of textual intercourse. In the month of December, we fired off more than 50m mobile messages a day, and next Friday (that's Valentine's Day, folks, in case you'd forgotten) we'll send considerably more than that.



It emerged this week that the chief beneficiary of this craze is MmO2 . BT's former mobile phone division revealed that it gets a higher proportion of revenues from texting than any of the other three operators.

Revenue from messaging grew at its fastest rate ever in the last quarter, up 19pc, and data services as a proportion of MmO2 's revenue rose to 17.7pc from 15.6pc.

More good news was the rise in MmO2 's average revenues per customer. ARPUs, as nerdy analysts like to dub them, grew by 5pc to 243 in the UK and by 9pc in Germany to 212.

MmO2 now has 19.1m subscribers and in Britain it may be the smallest player, with 11.9m users, but it is growing faster than its rivals - testament to the success of its rebranding from BT Cellnet.

Only 114,000 of its 503,000 new UK subscribers were higher-spending contract customers, but MmO2 claims its pre-pay customers have started spending more than before.

Customer growth in Germany, which continues to be dominated by T-Mobile and Vodafone, is less impressive and the MmO2 share price ascribes little or no value to this part of the business.

That seems unfair, given the fact that the group has attracted higher-spending customers and has made a decent fist of turning the operation around. An eventual sale or merger is almost as inevitable as a disposal of the Dutch unit, which is losing customers.

MmO2 's larger rival Vodafone is trading on a free cashflow yield of 6pc, while at 49p this week, MmO2 's equivalent valuation remains negative. It might not have Vodafone's scale or profitability but there is room for upside. A risky buy.

Buy orders Sell orders
Num(%) Num Vol(%) Vol VWAP Vol Vol(%) Num Num(%)
1% (61.11%) 11 (58.28%) 2,213,684 55.63 - 56.28 1,584,578 (41.72%) 7 (38.89%)
5% (53.57%) 15 (43.75%) 2,667,777 55.52 - 56.65 3,429,496 (56.25%) 13 (46.43%)
10% (39.66%) 23 (28.91%) 2,865,882 55.42 - 57.22 7,047,330 (71.09%) 35 (60.34%)
15% (33.33%) 25 (26.87%) 2,905,306 55.37 - 57.43 7,907,859 (73.13%) 50 (66.67%)
50% (34.62%) 27 (28.19%) 3,110,206 55.01 - 57.44 7,922,859 (71.81%) 51 (65.38%)
100% (36.14%) 30 (28.19%) 3,130,326 54.89 - 57.49 7,973,551 (71.81%) 53 (63.86%)
all (35.29%) 30 (28.18%) 3,130,326 54.89 - 57.54 7,977,851 (71.82%) 55 (64.71%)

Whole telecom sector and other techs are getting hit

Hi Ains. Can you try & provide L2 for OOM & VOD when posting during the day, Thanks. What do you think will be the outlook for US & US mkts today. Volumes are low except for shares which have taken off such as your holding in Telewest!

morning

A lot of markets are closed today and we have a short week next week .... US futures already off a little and our market being called down by the 'sell in May' peeps. Yesterdays last minute downturn was generated by end of month squaring of books - we are told.

Sector down 0.88% from just over 1% a minute or two ago


I think 56p todays close but suspect overall markets will be off a tad.


ains


Buy orders Sell orders
Num(%) Num Vol(%) Vol VWAP Vol Vol(%) Num Num(%)
1% (58.33%) 7 (69.05%) 870,400 54.95 - 55.85 390,180 (30.95%) 5 (41.67%)
5% (61.11%) 11 (66.77%) 1,216,196 54.82 - 56.02 605,226 (33.23%) 7 (38.89%)
10% (60.61%) 20 (63.27%) 1,442,396 54.56 - 56.45 837,253 (36.73%) 13 (39.39%)
15% (52.08%) 25 (58.42%) 2,509,622 52.98 - 58.51 1,786,159 (41.58%) 23 (47.92%)
50% (52.00%) 26 (58.26%) 2,514,522 52.97 - 58.54 1,801,159 (41.74%) 24 (48.00%)
100% (51.85%) 28 (57.71%) 2,526,642 52.87 - 58.72 1,851,851 (42.29%) 26 (48.15%)
all (50.00%) 28 (57.65%) 2,526,642 52.87 - 58.92 1,856,151 (42.35%) 28 (50.00%

mmO2 puts down phone on sell-off
Richard Inder, Daily Mail
1 May 2003

HONES outfit MMO2 wants 500m more for its struggling German arm than its Dutch rival KPN is prepared to pay, dashing lingering hopes of an imminent deal. The sale would crystallise further huge losses.



KPN has made an informal offer of as much as 1bn for the German network, but O2 chief executive Peter Erskine wants 1.5bn. KPN would combine the network with its own EPlus to take on leaders Vodafone and T-Mobile.


Even 1.5bn would be an ignominious exit, at best 15p per pound invested by O2's former parent BT. BT and its partners ran up huge losses building the network. BT then spent 5bn taking control and a further 5bn on a 3G licence.


The City believes O2 is worth more without Germany - which is losing around 20m a month. Since O2 sold its Dutch network this month at a 1.4bn loss its shares have rallied 10%. They fell 2p to 55 3/4p.


That deal stemmed some 100m annual cash losses, giving Erskine time to strike a harder bargain.


KPN believes O2 will eventually be pushed back to the negotiating table by German laws which will force it to build a new 3G network covering 25% of the population by end-year. The longer O2 delays, the more it will have to spend on its own network, which might make it less attractive to KPN.




2003 Associated Newspapers Ltd. All

Thanks Ains. Can you please provide VOD also next time you post OOM L2. So what do you now think will happen with OOM. Will it stay in the 55-58 range or fall now? The above article did you not find out any news on 1Bn offer from any other sources?

I think it will be subject to weakness until we see + news



Buy orders Sell orders
Num(%) Num Vol(%) Vol VWAP Vol Vol(%) Num Num(%)
1% (72.22%) 13 (83.68%) 2,205,396 54.68 - 55.74 430,180 (16.32%) 5 (27.78%)
5% (68.18%) 15 (77.69%) 2,247,196 54.67 - 55.93 645,226 (22.31%) 7 (31.82%)
10% (63.89%) 23 (73.65%) 2,452,396 54.54 - 56.34 877,253 (26.35%) 13 (36.11%)
15% (54.90%) 28 (65.84%) 3,519,622 53.42 - 58.41 1,826,159 (34.16%) 23 (45.10%)
50% (54.72%) 29 (65.69%) 3,524,522 53.41 - 58.44 1,841,159 (34.31%) 24 (45.28%)
100% (54.39%) 31 (65.15%) 3,536,642 53.34 - 58.62 1,891,851 (34.85%) 26 (45.61%)
all (52.54%) 31 (65.10%) 3,536,642 53.34 - 58.82 1,896,151 (34.90%) 28 (47.46%)





Buy orders Sell orders
Num(%) Num Vol(%) Vol VWAP Vol Vol(%) Num Num(%)
1% (52.54%) 31 (76.08%) 12,650,228 121.56 - 122.79 3,976,770 (23.92%) 28 (47.46%)
5% (53.57%) 45 (72.45%) 13,675,928 121.46 - 123.07 5,201,139 (27.55%) 39 (46.43%)
10% (50.81%) 63 (70.49%) 15,677,228 120.98 - 123.96 6,562,832 (29.51%) 61 (49.19%)
15% (48.94%) 92 (65.20%) 17,023,344 120.47 - 125.86 9,086,756 (34.80%) 96 (51.06%)
50% (46.92%) 99 (62.38%) 17,119,218 120.38 - 127.38 10,324,242 (37.62%) 112 (53.08%)
100% (46.28%) 112 (62.10%) 17,304,468 120.07 - 128.06 10,560,925 (37.90%) 130 (53.72%)
all (45.34%) 112 (62.06%) 17,304,468 120.07 - 128.32 10,580,838 (37.94%) 135 (54.66%

L2 on both looking relatively strong despite showing some weakness after PMI figs?

Buy orders Sell orders
Num(%) Num Vol(%) Vol VWAP Vol Vol(%) Num Num(%)
1% (66.67%) 12 (71.61%) 2,021,896 54.62 - 55.41 801,766 (28.39%) 6 (33.33%)
5% (63.64%) 14 (66.66%) 2,063,696 54.61 - 55.58 1,031,992 (33.34%) 8 (36.36%)
10% (61.11%) 22 (63.49%) 2,268,896 54.47 - 55.91 1,304,519 (36.51%) 14 (38.89%)
15% (50.94%) 27 (59.37%) 3,336,122 53.31 - 57.79 2,282,925 (40.63%) 26 (49.06%)
50% (50.91%) 28 (59.25%) 3,341,022 53.31 - 57.82 2,297,925 (40.75%) 27 (49.09%)
100% (50.85%) 30 (58.81%) 3,353,142 53.23 - 57.97 2,348,617 (41.19%) 29 (49.15%)
all (49.18%) 30 (58.76%) 3,353,142 53.23 - 58.14 2,352,917 (41.24%) 31 (50.82%

Is L2 on both looking relatively weak? Please post the L2 for VOD also, Thanks.

Can do the oom but dont often look at vod ...... whole sector and market is weak - the earlier news on OOM does not help in the short term. vols high side of average. i see a buying opportunity coming up


ains



Buy orders Sell orders
Num(%) Num Vol(%) Vol VWAP Vol Vol(%) Num Num(%)
1% (64.71%) 11 (77.21%) 3,377,600 53.85 - 54.80 997,000 (22.79%) 6 (35.29%)
5% (61.54%) 16 (68.01%) 3,501,190 53.82 - 55.00 1,647,000 (31.99%) 10 (38.46%)
10% (57.14%) 20 (61.57%) 3,584,814 53.78 - 55.26 2,237,226 (38.43%) 15 (42.86%)
15% (45.10%) 23 (63.85%) 4,612,616 53.12 - 55.67 2,612,053 (36.15%) 28 (54.90%)
50% (41.38%) 24 (57.07%) 4,617,516 53.11 - 56.87 3,473,159 (42.93%) 34 (58.62%)
100% (41.94%) 26 (56.78%) 4,629,636 53.06 - 56.98 3,523,851 (43.22%) 36 (58.06%)
all (40.63%) 26 (56.75%) 4,629,636 53.06 - 57.10 3,528,151 (43.25%) 38 (59.38%)

Thanks Ains. Can you look at the VOD L2 and post that aswell, its really weak.

Tracking OOM now with a view to buying as soon as the intraday chart turns


Buy orders Sell orders
Num(%) Num Vol(%) Vol VWAP Vol Vol(%) Num Num(%)
1% (53.33%) 8 (58.36%) 2,526,499 53.70 - 54.39 1,802,436 (41.64%) 7 (46.67%)
5% (51.85%) 14 (48.55%) 2,966,970 53.59 - 54.69 3,144,770 (51.45%) 13 (48.15%)
10% (44.74%) 17 (42.32%) 3,028,594 53.56 - 54.95 4,128,197 (57.68%) 21 (55.26%)
15% (37.04%) 20 (44.87%) 4,056,396 52.86 - 55.58 4,984,724 (55.13%) 34 (62.96%)
50% (33.87%) 21 (40.92%) 4,061,296 52.86 - 56.31 5,864,130 (59.08%) 41 (66.13%)
100% (34.85%) 23 (40.78%) 4,073,416 52.80 - 56.39 5,914,822 (59.22%) 43 (65.15%)
all (33.82%) 23 (40.76%) 4,073,416 52.80 - 56.45 5,919,122 (59.24%) 45 (66.18%




Buy orders Sell orders
Num(%) Num Vol(%) Vol VWAP Vol Vol(%) Num Num(%)
1% (55.38%) 36 (62.61%) 7,266,626 120.81 - 121.83 4,338,684 (37.39%) 29 (44.62%)
5% (46.60%) 48 (49.82%) 8,598,526 120.60 - 122.36 8,662,166 (50.18%) 55 (53.40%)
10% (49.02%) 75 (53.91%) 11,908,476 119.49 - 122.81 10,179,439 (46.09%) 78 (50.98%)
15% (43.00%) 89 (47.96%) 12,224,141 119.32 - 124.51 13,262,872 (52.04%) 118 (57.00%)
50% (42.29%) 96 (47.28%) 12,320,016 119.21 - 124.87 13,735,507 (52.72%) 131 (57.71%)
100% (41.22%) 108 (45.72%) 12,504,265 118.80 - 126.28 14,844,821 (54.28%) 154 (58.78%)
all (40.45%) 108 (45.69%) 12,504,265 118.80 - 126.47 14,864,734 (54.31%) 159 (59.55%)

Let me know when also. When you say intraday chart turns what do you use to work that out and how is it determined. Is now not the right level with it @54?

I have a big chart plotting the intraday trades on a blow by blow basis and look to see how it flows .... current trnd is still southwrds but I feel it's being overdone and therefore waiting on a turn. Its not a science but an art form and I look for the chart + L2 + news + general market sentiment

looks like we are heading south again

What does the L2 look like now for both & where do you see this going now. I foolishly got in @54, as usual should've waited for you to say now or something.

seems to have leveled



Buy orders Sell orders
Num(%) Num Vol(%) Vol VWAP Vol Vol(%) Num Num(%)
1% (45.16%) 28 (57.07%) 6,796,948 120.88 - 122.13 5,113,893 (42.93%) 34 (54.84%)
5% (51.00%) 51 (53.09%) 8,905,327 120.60 - 122.51 7,867,192 (46.91%) 49 (49.00%)
10% (47.79%) 65 (55.18%) 11,244,727 119.93 - 122.95 9,133,265 (44.82%) 71 (52.21%)
15% (46.08%) 94 (50.77%) 12,590,842 119.34 - 124.76 12,209,698 (49.23%) 110 (53.92%)
50% (45.09%) 101 (50.01%) 12,686,717 119.23 - 125.14 12,682,333 (49.99%) 123 (54.91%)
100% (43.63%) 113 (48.27%) 12,870,966 118.84 - 126.64 13,791,647 (51.73%) 146 (56.37%)
all (42.80%) 113 (48.24%) 12,870,966 118.84 - 126.84 13,811,560 (51.76%) 151 (57.20%

Buy orders Sell orders
Num(%) Num Vol(%) Vol VWAP Vol Vol(%) Num Num(%)
1% (65.22%) 15 (57.52%) 2,271,281 53.35 - 53.93 1,677,551 (42.48%) 8 (34.78%)
5% (66.67%) 18 (57.87%) 2,642,756 53.23 - 54.00 1,924,027 (42.13%) 9 (33.33%)
10% (51.16%) 22 (46.19%) 3,509,982 52.69 - 54.72 4,089,788 (53.81%) 21 (48.84%)
15% (41.82%) 23 (43.04%) 3,709,982 52.55 - 55.36 4,909,115 (56.96%) 32 (58.18%)
50% (37.50%) 24 (39.00%) 3,714,882 52.54 - 56.14 5,810,721 (61.00%) 40 (62.50%)
100% (37.68%) 26 (38.81%) 3,727,002 52.48 - 56.24 5,876,413 (61.19%) 43 (62.32%)
all (36.62%) 26 (38.79%) 3,727,002 52.48 - 56.30 5,880,713 (61.21%) 45 (63.38%

I am not always right but still holding off for now