.

Time Price Quantity Type Bid Offer Buy/Sell Total Buy Total Sell Total Unknown
29/09/09 16:56 8.0458 9,140,000 O 7.25 7.5 Buy 10,321,199 600,114 7,000

deos the earlier post indicate a time to top up at this sp

That large trade could indicate that GEM are now clear of their selling, so we might get an "Issue of Equity" RNS soon to tell us that 15 days ago they drew down for more cash.

To be expected with such a lively drilling schedule, I certainly guessed they had some time ago, so it would be nice to see the news.

PEN-104AA what is it ?

Seismic info from Oil Jack below on his pic copied over :




And Oiljacks opinion on the potential (up to 10 Bcf potential) :

Pen 104AA
As I have read it based on my interpretation of the seismic and my conversation from Hungary I believe it is a 4-6 bcf target with a 15% COS at something higher, say in the order of 8-10 bcf of gas (all recoverable).

More importantly, if the well works, we will have increased production right away. By the end of October as a matter of fact. Production might be in the 6 mmscf.d+ range. By the end of the year we will have more than maxed out the 10 mmscf.d gas handling facilities at the Pen 104 well pad with just 2 wells (Pen 104AA and Pen 105).

Pen 104AA COS...85% according to those that I have talked to.

GLTA, 45-50 cents might be cheap just on Hungary alone come the end of the year should our drilling luck continue.

OJ

As an example of why the Miocene potential is significant at the PEN area you only have to do some basic math. If the Miocene at PEN-104AA strikes and firms the ideas from what they found at PEN-105 that the Miocene is all upside, then you can potentially update the PEN area to be 80Bcf (likely a lot more) still recoverable.

Taking a conservative 5m Euro for AST per 1Bcf, this would mean even with the 80Bcf figure you get to AST 400m Euro.

Compare that to the market cap, and remember this is just one piece of the AST jigsaw.

PEN has got me more excited than the coming geologic appraisal well Fontana-1 (yes, please remember its a geologic well, not a producing well. First they check the geology, if they find oil and reservoir rock formation they can apply a permit to test, and then test, and if thats good they could then apply for a production license - so do not jump the gun, the idea of Fontana-1 is purely to test the geology and confirm, or not, if oil is there and help ascertain how much might be there as part of a course of work).

Anyway, back to PEN. PEN-105 appears to be very significant and "under wraps" for now. PEN-104AA if good might yield a serious upgrade for the PEN field, and for Ascent too.

It looks like, from rumour, that the gas handling facilities for the PEN area in Hungary are planning to be upgraded from the present capacity of 10mmscf/day to a new higher 18mmscf/day.

Again this would suggest that flow rates from the PEN-105 well are very good and should be long term (few years production) and that they expect and hope for a similar vastly upgraded flow rate and size of find at PEN-104AA.

PEN-104AA news should come week commencing 12th October, sometime during that week imv.

If we go for PEN-105 at 6mmscfd, PEN-104AA at 4mmscfd and then PEN-101 / 106 giving another 8mmscfd then by end Q1 2010 Ascent could have over 40% of 18mmscf of daily production.

To be conservative we could suggest that net to AST there is 7mmscf/day of production from the PEN area by end of Q1 2010.

Thats a lot of money for Ascent on a daily basis, and if we get some decent reserves upgrades (PEN-15 circa 10Bcf ? / PEN-104AA circa 10Bcf ? / PEN remaining area's circa another 60 Bcf ?) then this is long term production that seriously will upgrade the outlook of AST.

I think its worth reiterating at this time too :

Fontana-1 is a "geological appraisal well".

It is being drilled purely to test the features of the geology at that area following the 2D seismic.

Its not going to flow gazillons of barrels, its not going into production, at the initial stage it is purely and only a "geological appraisal well".

This means they will find out what the rock nature and formation is, and whether it contains oil or not.

If it contains oil *hurray*, then AST will have to apply for either a testing license to convert from a "geological appraisal well" into a testing well, and then test the formation for oil flows

OR

They then apply to drill a follow up well (appraisal) but with the intention of it being a production well from the off.


Fontana-1 being a success will be that there is good reservoir rock and it contains oil. But that is all we will know for a month or two, as they will have to apply for a testing permit and then test the formation.

It will be a long process which will be in the sidelines of view with the ongoing Hungarian Panhandle and Hungarian PEN area developments.

Anyone expecting the share price go up 5 times just on Fontana-1 initial results if good is mistaken. Good news will price itself in yes, but the process of turning news into "booked reserves" will take many months, if that is what happens, and the size of any find etc.. will be purely speculation until much further work is done after Fontana-1 results.

------

Oh, and OJ reckons PEN-104AA news around the 20th October.

We are midway (IMO) through the final GEM draw down, so the present price action is to be expected. They normally sell as much as they can at higher prices and then short down to the minimal value they are allowed to sell at in order to get the "average" price of the share lower over the 15 day period.

The longer they can now hold the price down "end of each day" the lower the average price will be that they get the shares at.

They also normally start the price moving upwards as the 15 day period nearly ends......so they can sell any leftover shares at much higher than they get them at.

I would expect therefore for at least another 5 working days the price will be weak end of the day and then a solid period of rising price will be due into PEN-104AA news and also Fontana-1 spudding.

Perfect buying time now, I snaffled some at 7.25p and will attempt to do the same any day that GEM try to weaken the price before in the afternoon before close, in the coming 5 to 7 working days.

I am in the camp of "later the news comes" is better.

Last time, in a different area, the drill bit poked into the Miocene at PEN-104 area it resulted in water with some gas.

Gas sits atop of water so very early in this sidetrack, had they encountered water, they could have stopped.

The question is if they encounter no water will they keep on deepening the drill to gain more recoverable amounts of gas ?

Therefore no "early" news for me is good. This is not Gazatta were they were working on 2D seismic and got fooled by the formation.

This is PEN-104 area and they have 3D seismic and 2 other drills to base their drilling on, therefore surely in this case the longer the news is coming the more potential for another "substantial gas find".

Well, thats my rose tinted view. ( hoping there is no after hours Friday bad news coming ;) )

I am glad that AST threads have gone quiet, the hot money is out chasing other dreams presently which allows a good entry point for interested buyers in the event the news is good.

Should be PEN-104AA news next week.

On the market today its very level. You can buy 250K at 7.95p and you can sell 250K at 7.67p presently.

Watch your stop losses, even though you can sell at 7.67p I expect a "bid price" tree shake to 6.5p or even 6p.....not due to sells but to force the hands of people with stop losses to loosen up stock to fill buy orders. Be careful if you use stop losses.

Market tighter now, can buy just 125K now at the full 8p, or sell 500K at 7.71p.

Someone wants your stock, as there must be a buyer in the background and they are trying to work their buy order.

Market a bit tighter again presently you can :

Buy 100K at full 8p
Sell 300K at 7.76p

Ignore L2 and the MM's "advertised" prices at the moment.

As its now Tuesday the 20th, I would expect news on PEN-104AA at any time from today to next week Tuesday.

Just got to keep them fingers crossed for good news when the RNS comes out. PEN-104AA has some serious upside potential in terms of size of reserves.

Demand is there today.


You can buy max 125K on line at 8.35p

You can sell 350K at 8.05p


L2 3 v 1

WINS/CANA/LIBC bidding at 7.75p advertised and just SCAP offering at 8.5p

Proselenes, thanks for keeping us up todate,been a little tied uo lately.
cyril

cyril.

Rumours from Hungary say PEN-104AA is good, on testing now and we will get news end of this week or early next.

Also Fontana-1 appears to be going to spud 1st week of November.

Some media attraction might liven things up tomorrow. If PEN-105 is the 10Bcf its hoped for, and 104-AA comes in with another 8Bcf to 10Bcf (potential is there based on the 3D seismic) then things will be very good going forward for Ascent with production at decent rates for some years. All we want is the AST RNS to say "significant" or "substantial" in relation to 104-AA results.

http://business.timesonline.co.uk/tol/business/markets/article6884806.ece

"........Rumour of the day

Shares in Ascent Resources eased 0.38p to 7.88p, but could start to generate some positive interest this month. The word in the Square Mile is that the AIM-listed oil and gas exploration and production group is about to report some encouraging drilling results from its Hungarian wells. The company also has assets in Slovenia and Italy...................."

L2 presently 2 v 1

LIBC/WINS bidding at 8.25p
CANA offering at 8.5p


On line you can buy MAX just 25K at the full 8.5p
You can sell 100K at 8.35p.

So background demand is strong.

Post from OJ over at Investors Village. In bold is a DXE release just out, with OJ comments at the bottom.


Recent Developments

Hungarian Exploration Interests

In April 2009, the Corporation, through its 37.5% owned indirect subsidiary, PetroHungaria kft, completed and tested the PEN-104A sidetrack of the PEN-104 gas well. The well came onto production April 29, 2009 and has produced

approximately 500 MMCF to the date hereof, in addition to the 500 MMCF produced in the original PEN -104 well. PEN-104A has been suspended in favour of deepening the wellbore to 1,358 metres total vertical depth to test a natural gas target in the Miocene volcaniclastic section.

In September 2009, the Corporation, through PetroHungaria kft, concluded the drilling and initial completion operations on the PEN-105 well in the Peneszlek area of northeast Hungary. The well was drilled to a depth of 1,487 metres to test a structure which tested gas from the base of the Miocene volcaniclastics in a well drilled in 1982. Nine metres of reservoir were perforated over three intervals in the target formation at PEN-105 and all three zones flowed gas, two with condensate.

Permitting of the pipeline that will be used to bring the gas to market is underway and construction is planned so that gas sales from this well can commence early in 2010.

In August 2009, the Corporation participated as to its 12.5% working interest in the Gorbehaza #1 (“GH-1”) well in the Panhandle region of the Corporation’s Nyirseg North permit. GH-1 was drilled to a depth of 1,300 metres and was successfully completed and tested. GH-1 encountered two Pannonian gas bearing sand reservoirs totalling 5.75 metres and the stratigraphically lower zone of the two has been completed. The shallower sand will be completed and put on production once the lower zone has been depleted. GH-1 is planned to be tied-in to the third-party-owned Hajdunanas Gas Production Facility 2.5 kilometres to the north.

The Corporation intends to drill, complete and tie-in between two and four wells in Hungary with a portion of the net proceeds of the Offering. The wells intended to be drilled include some combination of the following: PEN-101, PEN-106, GH-2, GH-3, GH-5, and a PEN-9 offset.

See “Use of Proceeds”. Notice is says Gh-2,3,5....do you think they believe we are sitting on a major gas find.....??? Oh yeah they do.

pp what does all this mean in earnings for AST?