I have been a holder of this stock for the past 8 months and intent to hold for at least two years to gain the maximum CGT relief as its AIM listed.

I have topped up my holding recently as TPA looks well undervalued to me at the current price of 19.5p.

Reasons as follows:

2004 results (due in March) should show 85% growth on 2003 - EPS of 1.3p. This will give a historic PE of 15 at the current price.

Estimates for 2005 indicate a further 46% growth in earnings to 1.9p which could, IMO, be conservative considering the impact of the big contracts signed in 2004 are yet to fully kick in. The PE estimate is only 10.26 for 2005 - way too low IMO for a growth company.

2006 estimates are for 2.4p of EPS (PE 8.1) - this is why I am holding for at least 2 years - the shares should double to 40p if things stay on track and CGT will be only 5 or 10% with the taper relief.

The earnings have high visibility and should be rated as such - most contracts are signed for 3 or 5 years plus with a good chance of repeat business, contract extensions etc.

Strong cash generation paying off debt for aquisitions.

Contracts with big players such as Virgin, Matalan, BAA, BMI Healthcare and Dixons.

The technology division has the potential to significantly increase earnings which have not been considered in the earnings estimates.

TripleArc is now the 4th biggest print management provder in the UK and still growing - maybe takeover potential there.

Risks:

UK economy might go down hill adversely affecting TPA margins/contracts.
Shares are fairly illiquid and volatile.
Margins get squeezed.
Debt fairly high but being rapidly repaid.
Increased competition.

Overall I feel comfortable to hold a high percentage of my portfolio in this company - my two year timeframe should hopefully see the shares double in value baring unforseen disasters.

Website : http://www.triplearcplc.com/

Shareshark

Facts we know:

New Finance Director bought 800,000 shares at 7 pence each on 14 July 2005
Aviva bought 4 million shares at around 7 pence each on 14 July 2005
Aviva bought another 5 million shares at 3.50 pence each on 30 September 2005
Altium Securities has upgraded TripleArc (LSE: TPA.L - news) to buy from hold.
on 05 October 2005.

Broker Upgrade Link:

http://uk.biz.yahoo.com/051005/336/ftpjv.html

Something brewing....mark up on the bid to 3.25 pence....in the blue already.

http://www.printweek.com/news/index.cfm?fuseaction=article&UID=ae9ca122-0f31-4481-8f60-226bc46b5c3c


TripleArc stays focused on hitting its targets
Lauretta Roberts, 06/10/2005
TripleArc chief executive Jason Cromack says that if the group hits its predicted earnings for 2005 its faltering share price will recover.


Shares in the AIM-listed print management group took a knock last week when it announced that financial reporting errors would force it to restate its 2004 earnings to 3.5m from 4.5m, and that earnings for this year would be around half the revised 2004 figure.

Following that announcement and the subsequent publication of its interim results last Friday (30 September), its shares slumped to around 3.5p. The year high is 23p.

Cromack said Friday's price slump was down to one fund manager who "dropped all his shares in one go".
"How do we recover [the share price]? We hit our number. It will make life a lot easier," said Cromack.

He added that the group had the support of its largest shareholder, Morleys, which had just taken a further 5m shares. "They are fully supportive of the growth story," said Cromack.

"We are still profitable, we are still generating cash and we have the support of our shareholders and the support of the bank. What we have to do now is go on and hit our numbers," he said.

In the six months to 30 June 2005, the group posted revenues of 30.07m (2004: 24.03m) and earnings before interest, tax and amortisation (EBITA) of 690,000 (2004: 2.27m). Gross profit was up by more than 4m at 10.1m (2004: 6.03m).

Cromack said that 40% of the group's revenue was contracted and that 10m of new annualised contracted revenue had been signed and implemented in the past 12 months.

"Why did we buy Access Plus [the print manager acquired in 2003]? To give us the scale and infrastructure to go out and win print management contracts and that's what we did last year," said Cromack.

MMs took the pee today by dropping it on that volume !

Nobody interested in this recovery stock then ?

Big volume today ! Someone have news ?

I notice a 1 Million Trade at 5p !!

Great day today and again good volume. Interest now picking up.

Remember there is a 10p BUY rec on this

Doing well again today.

Positive reaction to todays news and I like this bit

The Board remains confident in the prospects for TripleArc and looks forward to
further updating shareholders in April.

Well the news made the FT today hence the rise comming in. It would be nice to see brokers re-iterate their 10p price target.

Print management firm TripleArc gained 0.37 at 4.12 building on yesterday's
gains after it disclosed it has continued to generate good levels of operating
cash flow, enabling it to manage its debt in what it says was a difficult 2005.
In reaction, Altium Securities upgraded its recommendation to 'buy'. The
broker said the fact that TripleArc has not had to issue another profits
warning, that 2005 cash flow expectations have been met and that the group is
winning more work from major clients is positive.


and they did !

looks interesting.. may go in on this mid week depending on funds available and providing current offer holds at this level for the next few days...

Well if you do don't come in for a trade as I am sure the major gains will be made by holding for a while. I can remember AHT and CS. where everyone said they were going down the pan and look at them now.

What an opportunity !

8M market cap and 40M+ T/O

I'm in @4.25p from last week... here's hoping !

Growth Investor mag (April edition)says on page 24 that TripleArc are "very cheap indeed. Buy"

http://www.growthcompany.co.uk/company/articles/TPA/25285/aim-for-10m-and-under.thtml

Cheap TripleArc eyes recovery
Print management specialist TripleArc was something of a Growth Company Investor favourite until a profit warning last July sent the shares tumbling from highs of around 23p to below 4p, giving TripleArc a meagre valuation of 7.8 million.

However, the reason for the warning was the poor performance of the direct mail division of its 640,000 million acquisition Stream. This difficult asset has now been sold (it was offloaded for 1), and the attendant cancellation of an earn-out payment eliminated 900,000 of liabilities from the balance sheet.

The other good news is that the group made enough cash to pay down 500,000 worth of debt. With the remaining business now streamlined and looking likely to thrive, house broker Altium Securities expects 500,000 adjusted profit before tax for the year to December 2005 leading to 0.2p of earnings.

But 2006 is where the difference will be seen: 3.2 million of profits are forecast, with earnings of 1.2p producing a miniscule p/e ratio of 3.1 times. Very cheap indeed. Buy.

Some nice big trades through again today. Looks good for a confirmed break from it's recent lows.

Yep.. it's looking good.. having paid 4.25p beginning of March any upside from here is profit...makes a change for me !