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Before next weekend, Arsenal at home to Liverpool (tomorrow) and Everton (Weds), Utd at home to WBA(today) and Chelsea (Tues). If we get same points as them from 2 games each then next weekends games mean nothing

Current relagtion market says you have hope but very little:

Norwich 1.93/1.98
West Brom 1.12/1.16
Palace 1.32/1.36
Saints 1.2/1.24

Scrip

you still planning to lay to back Man Utd or are you just going to cheer them to beat WBA???

Utd rested Rooney,Keane, Scholes and Van Nistelroy, dont look to have a lot going forward.

Utd price now 1.42/1.43 - having laid at 1.36 tempted to take my profit before kick off

West Brom playing 3 up front with only 4 at back rather than their normal 5-4-1.

Have greened up half the bet at 1.44, left half running

Man U haven't helped Saints all season so I don't expect them to help now.

All green now - rest settled at 1.49

may well look to back utd if it stays nil-nil for a while

Trying to figure what the odds will be on the Fulham vs Norwich game. Norwich haven't won away all season but many half decent teams seem to have capitulated to Norwich in the latter part of the season.

Tis better to have a profit banked IMO. Made the right decision to lay earlier. Bit naff off Utd to field a weakened team.

typical fergie

often plays a weakened team against the bottom sides, and has come unstuck a few times in the past. I expect he will play his best side against chelsea in mid week and then rest a few against the saints ahead of the cup final

Glad i took my profit :-)))

when will defending sides learn that the attacking side is allowed to take the free kick quickly - they have comitted the foul and then want the attacking side to wait while they organise themselves

A penalty against man utd at old trafford - whatever next lol

PMSL!

Utd should have had this won by the look of it.

Possession:
Man Utd 58%
West Brom 42%

Shots:
Man Utd 27
West Brom 2

Corners:
Man Utd 11
West Brom 0

Lay MNU @ 2.5 Greened up @ 36 - Glazier yours for 500m!

So last day of the season it is then. Three of four teams to go down. The question is which ones!

Chartist

nice one m8

Fund - cheers dont trade soccer much these days, ok back to the horses.

Evening all

had a day off today licking my wounds from a large hit on the horses yesterday so been spending some time reviewing my trading history and resetting my self imposed rules.

I have reviewed my horse racing trading rules to as follows:

1) Only trade races where favourite is priced less than 5.0
2) Only trade horses at prices less than 7.0
3) Never let a trade still be open when the race starts
4) Stop Loss to be set at a maximum of 4 ticks
5) If loss of more than 4 ticks is suffered, stop trading for 30 minutes
6) Never enter a trade for a size larger than the existing order book
7) Only trade when spread is at the minimun and overround less than 103%
8) Only trade on the weight of money/direction, dont overtrade on instinct


And my football rules to as follows:

1) Only trade home teams priced between 1.40 and 2.00
2) Always green up on first goal in favour
3) Never trade out - prepared to accept the losses
4) Place trade as close to kick off as possible
5) Dont trade games where result is unimportant to either club

I have also been looking at laying any of the relegation threatened sides when their price drops below 1.20 and have had a bit of success but only useful at end of season when nerves are playing a huge part


Any thoughts/comments???

With regard to the horses trading (swing trading) i am questioning my stake size. On the basis scrip taught us you trade a level per tick. This gives consistent loss sizes but distorts profits to higher for shorter priced horses (once greened up). I have been looking at changing my sizing to give a consistent profit (once greened up not per tick) which would leave higher losses for longer priced horses but less chance of them winning. It gives me the following stake sizing (based on 1 a point) :

Odds Stake size
1.01-1.99 100
2.00-2.98 75
3.00-3.95 40
4.00-5.90 30
6.00-7.00 17.5

Anyone else looked into/challenged this theory and/or have any opinions??? Scrip your comment re: this would be most appreciated

Fundy,

Points 3 and 4 on the horses are invaluable. I have learn't the hard way on point 3, Scripts advice on the course was to be out 2 mins before the off if I remember correctly.

If you keep to point 4 though you should reduce the risk of hitting point 3. Out of interest why a 4 point stop loss, is this a direct ratio to the number of ticks you hope to achieve in the other direction?

Can you expand on what you mean by point 7 spread I understand but what do feel the impact of a larger than 103% overround has.