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So last day of the season it is then. Three of four teams to go down. The question is which ones!

Chartist

nice one m8

Fund - cheers dont trade soccer much these days, ok back to the horses.

Evening all

had a day off today licking my wounds from a large hit on the horses yesterday so been spending some time reviewing my trading history and resetting my self imposed rules.

I have reviewed my horse racing trading rules to as follows:

1) Only trade races where favourite is priced less than 5.0
2) Only trade horses at prices less than 7.0
3) Never let a trade still be open when the race starts
4) Stop Loss to be set at a maximum of 4 ticks
5) If loss of more than 4 ticks is suffered, stop trading for 30 minutes
6) Never enter a trade for a size larger than the existing order book
7) Only trade when spread is at the minimun and overround less than 103%
8) Only trade on the weight of money/direction, dont overtrade on instinct


And my football rules to as follows:

1) Only trade home teams priced between 1.40 and 2.00
2) Always green up on first goal in favour
3) Never trade out - prepared to accept the losses
4) Place trade as close to kick off as possible
5) Dont trade games where result is unimportant to either club

I have also been looking at laying any of the relegation threatened sides when their price drops below 1.20 and have had a bit of success but only useful at end of season when nerves are playing a huge part


Any thoughts/comments???

With regard to the horses trading (swing trading) i am questioning my stake size. On the basis scrip taught us you trade a level per tick. This gives consistent loss sizes but distorts profits to higher for shorter priced horses (once greened up). I have been looking at changing my sizing to give a consistent profit (once greened up not per tick) which would leave higher losses for longer priced horses but less chance of them winning. It gives me the following stake sizing (based on 1 a point) :

Odds Stake size
1.01-1.99 100
2.00-2.98 75
3.00-3.95 40
4.00-5.90 30
6.00-7.00 17.5

Anyone else looked into/challenged this theory and/or have any opinions??? Scrip your comment re: this would be most appreciated

Fundy,

Points 3 and 4 on the horses are invaluable. I have learn't the hard way on point 3, Scripts advice on the course was to be out 2 mins before the off if I remember correctly.

If you keep to point 4 though you should reduce the risk of hitting point 3. Out of interest why a 4 point stop loss, is this a direct ratio to the number of ticks you hope to achieve in the other direction?

Can you expand on what you mean by point 7 spread I understand but what do feel the impact of a larger than 103% overround has.

Fundamentalist - 08 May'05 - 20:40 - 2617 of 2618

Essentially the rules in 2617 are pretty solid.

2,3 & 5 in the football are critical.

I think all the points on horses I can't fault but I tend not to trade beyond 6's.

The money management I specified I still use. It is based really on losses being much less common that profits and therefore with a finite figure to both it does mean that returns in the long run are more stable and predictable. I win on over 90% of my horse trades. If you assume that favourites are priced on average at 3.33 you can work out the math from there.

With regard to money mangement and stop losses though I always seek a better way. I have been looking at the most common scenario and comparing wins and loss at different odds and seeing how if I flex my stake I can improve return. But I have found little gain for the moment. But I spend a lot of time each week looking at the prior week and analysing and testing new strategies.

On stops losses I am narrowing in a volatility based stop. This will allow to hold your position for longer in the case of a volatile market. Still a work in progress but it will be available on the platform I am about to release but not till I have have the chance to test it.

I have also been looking at an open ended strategy which involved varied stake amounts based upon the implied probability but again still early days. This is really a completely different style rather than a variation. This is driven by a need to put more money in the market than I can at the moment.

Some points I would add on the horses.

Only enter the market when liquidity is high and rising.
Exit a market before everybody else starts to close off their positions.
If you can't see an opporuntity don't try and make one. Wait till one appears then hit it hard.

I currently try and do at least two horses at the same time. I find that if you do this and the over round is small the price on one horse will directly affect the other for sure. I also only take one side. I am looking for clear cut opportunities not every opportunity.

I believe the key to long term success is discipline. I keep very detailed records and analyse them regulary. I also do not vary one bit from my core strategies. I find that if you do you tend to muddy the waters not only in terms of performance but also in terms of figuring out where you are going wrong. As such, despite the impact on commision charges, I run more than one account to track specific strategies. Using spreadsheets is great but having no money in your account is a sure signal you are doing something wrong!!

Cunningham

thanks for your comments - point 3 is what hurt me (again!) yesterday and i then compounded it by becoming a gambler and chasing my loss

as for the over-round, i just feel that above 103% the market isnt settled/stable - ie the market is overpriced by 3% and the market will correct this when more money enters - to me the higher level of over-round tends to indicate that the market isnt fully formed and having watched it for a while i settled on below 103% as a figure i was happy that the market was stablilised

BTW, I promise to get this software out there shortly. We spent a lot of time testing and proding it but I keep adding features. So I have cut the development in order to get it to market. The new features can be added over time. I haven't used any third party software since January. A basic version of it will probably be out first and the remaining version will follow. It's just a question of breaking out the core into modules.

We will be producing a soccer specific version during the summer. We were going to rush it out before the end of this season but where money is at stake I'd rather it take time and be perfect rather than rushed and full of issues.

Scrip

if you need a beta tester you know where i am lol

"just feel that above 103% the market isnt settled/stable"

Having the tighest overround will help for sure. Also watching the market for a couple of minutes will help you see if the market is moving one way or another.

Chasing losses just never works IMHO. Take each one on the chin and try and learn from it or accept that you don't know why it happened.

I have mares where it just doesn't go right. Sometimes you may not make money at all on a day. But sure as the sun rises in the East each morning you will also have good times. Its just hard to accept when you have just had a bad run. It happens to everybody.

thanks scrip

any views re my post on stake sizes?

Hi guys,

Sorry I haven't been around. Went back to my caravan in The Lakes on thursday after casting my vote early doors. Wish I hadn't bothered. Crap weather. Should have gone this week judging by the forecast.

Fundy, sorry I missed your email about Haydock. One day our paths will cross.

Bakko, brilliant night last wednesday. A pleasure to meet you. Gonna try the tennis a bit more.

Digesting your post above Steve. Spot on what I've read so far.

I should add to the list, keep good records.

When you keep discipline and good records you tend to define the parameters of the system you are using.

If for example I am scalping and make three ticks each time and do that on 90% of the occaisions my loss target is automatically defined. Without good records I'd have no idea where to set my stop loss.

Hi Everyone,

Fundy, Excellent information and thanks for advice. Sorry to here you got hit. I can certainly empathise as I got hammered over the last few days with a couple of tennis results that didn't go my way.

This was despite speaking with Harlosh last week about ways to maximise profits and minimising losses. We even talked at length about discipline, greed, fear, etc, etc. Yet within days of this I get blown away!

My main problem is that I get too over confident having been on a terrific run lately. This has lead to complacency and a lack of regard to the potential big losses that I'm exposed to.

It seems that the word "Discipline" needs to be permanently tattooed to my hand!

Scrip

thanks for the comment, as an accountant by trade, my records are probably overly detailed lol. i download my trades each week into excel and run analysis on

John

hope you had a good weekend - didnt go to haydock in the end as been suffering with a chest infection and a heavy cold. Haydock is on on the following dates, can you make any of them; fri 20th may, sat 21st may, thur 2nd june, fri 3rd june (evening), sat 4th june. For a full list of fixtures check the attched link - currently any or all are ok by me.

http://www.haydock-park.co.uk/racing/fixtures.jsp

Bakko, fancy joining us at haydock?

Any preferred dates for meeting up for a beer with me as well this time?

I think without discipline we are just punters. We have pretentions of being traders, of being a cut above the mugs who feed us. But unless we master discipline we are no better than them. In fact, we become the mugs and the real traders feed off us.

Without discipline we are nothing.

Spot on John though there are far worse than us believe me - if you find time, go and read some of the threads on the betfair forum to see how some people operate

Just started on the horses, have a look at the price chart on the favourite in the 6.00 at Towcester

"been suffering with a chest infection and a heavy cold"

Ditto, I hate being ill. I have lots of talking to do over the next two days and I can't. Hoping to pull through though.