< "> edit this post http://www.investegate.co.uk/afren-plc-%28afr%29/rns/trading-statement-and-operations-update/201301210700069619
http://www.investegate.co.uk/afren-plc--afr-/rns/2012-full-year-results/201303250700107200A/

In an attempt to cut down the header page,i've transferred some of the older news to Page1 post No.3.

http://www.oil-price.net/index.php?lang=en
http://www.ft.com/home/uk

http://www.investegate.co.uk/Article.aspx?id=201111020700081674R
http://www.investegate.co.uk/Article.aspx?id=201111150700250723S
http://www.investegate.co.uk/Article.aspx?id=201112010705051251T
http://www.investegate.co.uk/Article.aspx?id=201201170700146472V
http://www.investegate.co.uk/Article.aspx?id=201201230701479690V
http://www.moneyam.com/action/news/showArticle?id=4323758
http://www.investegate.co.uk/Article.aspx?id=201204170700164488B
http://www.investegate.co.uk/Article.aspx?id=201205140700212304D
http://www.investegate.co.uk/Article.aspx?id=201205210700407032D
http://www.moneyam.com/action/news/showArticle?id=4430164
http://www.investegate.co.uk/afren-plc-%28afr%29/rns/significant-new-seychelles-3d-seismic-programme/201212120700052973T/
http://www.investegate.co.uk/afren-plc--afr-/rns/2013-half-yearly-results/201308230700063334M/
http://www.investegate.co.uk/afren-plc--afr-/rns/ogo-drilling-and-resources-update/201311190700083404T/
http://www.investegate.co.uk/afren-plc--afr-/rns/trading-statement-and-operations-update/201401280700096280Y/
http://www.investegate.co.uk/afren-plc--afr-/rns/interim-management-statement/201405200700135209H/
http://www.investegate.co.uk/afren-plc--afr-/rns/interim-management-statement/201410300700116483V/
http://www.moneyam.com/action/news/showArticle?id=4942625
http://www.moneyam.com/action/news/showArticle?id=4943375

U.S. crude was off its Asian session highs but still rose 0.5 percent to $67.21 a barrel, after industry group American Petroleum Institute (API) released data on Tuesday showing U.S. crude stocks fell 6.5 million barrels last week. [API/S]

16:35:10 47.43 1,288,218 UT 47.43 47.46 Sell

http://finance.yahoo.com/news/opec-no-threat-us-oil-174652244.html

The Times

Admittedly, there were more pressing events in oil this week, such as the continuing deterioration in the price, the resulting collapse of the rouble and some daft idea that Royal Dutch Shell might buy BP, but events in the oil-rich Kurdish province of Iraq seem to have been overlooked.
There are four quoted UK companies there. The problem has been getting the oil to the outside world and getting paid for it. The first is well under way; the second logjam appears to have been unblocked.
There were two linked pieces of news. In November, the Kurdish regional government in Erbil, in a largely symbolic gesture, said that it would make a first payment to producers, with further regular sums to come in the new year. This was designed to reassure them, as the province’s oil industry ramps up and capacity in the pipeline into Turkey increases, that further investment would be rewarded.
This week that first payment arrived, $15 million for Gulf Keystone Petroleum for its Shaikan field and $24 million to Genel Energy for its Taq Taq and Tawke fields. Simultaneously, Erbil and Baghdad agreed on a deal to share the country’s oil revenues.
Baghdad would get the revenue from 300,000 barrels a day (bpd) from the Kirkuk field and another 250,000 bpd of Kurdish oil, all exported through the pipeline. Erbil gets a 17 per cent share of the national budget and can keep revenues from however much more it can sell. Total production from the province could hit 500,000 bpd next year.
In the background is the war between both and the Islamic State — as one commentator put it: “There is nothing like a common enemy to get people to settle their disagreements.”
Shares in Gulf Keystone and Genel jumped after the news. The two others are much smaller players. Petroceltic has interests in two blocks, but these are still at the exploration stage. Afren, better known for its African operations, has interests in two fields, including Barda Rash, but production is limited, averaging about 500 bpd in the first half of 2014.
For Gulf Keystone, the breaking of the deadlock allows it to push ahead with its Shaikan field. Production is running at about 40,000 bpd and is taken in lorries north to the town of Fishkhabur on the Turkish border. There are plans to link with the pipeline, perhaps in 2016; the oil from Shaikan is heavy crude and is likely to need some processing.
Shaikan should be producing at 100,000 bpd within a couple of years, but the field will need hefty investment. Some analysts believe that Gulf Keystone will have to raise fresh funds on the stock market. The alternative is bringing in a partner or even an outright bid.
This has been made easier by the Erbil-Baghdad agreement, because big oil companies already operating in the south of the country will be able to take a position in the Kurdish region. One might question, on glancing at the oil price, whether they are in the mood to buy assets.
DNO, the Norwegian company, is also producing in Kurdish Iraq. The biggest British player is Genel. Its cost of production is startlingly cheap, less than $2 a barrel. Genel, where Tony Hayward, the former BP boss, is chief executive, has the most to gain from recent developments. Its oil is high-grade light crude. It is producing, from the two fields, about 250,000 bpd and is owed $180 million for the oil it has exported already. The company has a market capitalisation of £1.7 billion, which would put it in the FTSE 250 index and mean that index-tracking funds would have to invest.
However, because Kurdish Iraq has not hitherto been recognised by Baghdad, the UK Listing Authority has said that the degree of political risk this raises precludes this. The outbreak of amity between Iraq and its breakaway province means this will probably happen in the new year. Genel has set three pre-conditions for a return of excess capital to shareholders. Once payments come through regularly, all three will have been achieved. That return looks likely next year . . . and one day M&A activity will return to the sector.

htTp://www.malcysblog.com/#sthash.Ew4dZ1vY.dpuf


Malc on POO

Oil price
The oil market fell yesterday on the news that I mentioned about Saudi pricing for January liftings, the interesting thing about about it was that it only fell less than a dollar, indicating that the market has already adopted a tolerance to such news. Reuters is reporting this morning that at least $150bn of oil and gas projects due to be authorised for next year have already been put on hold, if true this is the start of the cycle which will lead to higher prices further down the road, the oil industry can never be accused of not being short termist or predictable eh?

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2014-12-08/hedge-funds-betting-that-opec-led-oil-rout-is-near-end.html

Nasty looking chart.

My recent purchase will be staying firmly where the sun don't shine for the foreseeable future !!

Join the club jimmy, my 52p is off the scale now. :((

Http://money.cnn.com/2014/12/08/investing/shale-oil-spending-america-opec/index.html?iid=Lead

This bit is interesting for Afren holders.

Fire sales ahead? The defiant statements show how the American energy industry is not backing down against OPEC, which appears to be attempting to choke off the U.S. shale boom with painfully low prices.

If oil prices remain low -- or even tumble further -- some smaller energy companies and high-cost producers are likely to find themselves in serious financial trouble.

That could present a buying opportunity for Big Oil companies that have the financial flexibility to take advantage of a fire sale.

"The best thing for Chevron and Exxon...is to see oil prices crashing and scare the hell out of everybody else. It becomes a window of opportunity" for acquisitions, said Gheit. He predicted a wave of mergers and acquisitions if oil prices don't recover by next summer.

Oil still in free fall,making one wonder just how low will it go? Thought i'd wait for sub 40p,but it feels like trying to catch a falling knife at present,Afr's will imo weatherthis storm as it's hedged oil(90p+)along with expected improvement in reserves.
Take over is the best reason for investing at present imo,but only time will tell,so good luck to all holding.
Me i'll wait for the xmas period and see?

My lost on these is now 66% , sold a few more @ 40.25

Done the right thing this will only get worse in 2015.

I don't think so ,i have a buy a third higher than here but am going to ride it out ,i usually use a fairly strict stop .Going against the grain here for now.

I can't see any problem with investing in either AFR or GENL for the medium term. When the price of crude starts to rise again, which it inevitably will, then the sp of both of these, plus many other oil producers, will rise accordingly. It's almost impossible to pick the very bottom or the very top of a chart, so for holders (investors) at whatever price, surely it's just a case of either sitting tight or averaging down?

Big oil will wait until oil hit's rock bottom or near, before bidding for other company's. $40 to $55 i think would be near to bottom.

Run for the hills..!

some comfort with a touch of realty.
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A quick look at some figures.

We know that Afren has production costs somewhere around $40pb area.

Assuming 30% hedged at $90 on 32k bopd is 9900 barrels

Thus 9900 bopd at $90 = $891000 per day or

at $50 profit per barrel = $495000 per day.

The remaining say average $60 per barrel over one year = 22.1k bopd * $60 = $1326000 per day

or at $20 profit per barrel = $442000 per day.

So profit of $937000 or £597825 per day.

Allow 330 days per year for a bit of downtime = $309.2m or £197.3m profit for the year or approx 18p profit per share.
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Just one point: Everyone is assuming that we can actually sell or have contracts for all the oil we are producing at the moment. If there is a glut, then either it is not sold or it keeps getting cheaper. The latter is not a problem for Afren at current prices.

Admittedly it was due to the financial crisis in 2008/9, but 14p seems to be the bottom!!!