The first ASOS Challenge was successful in the sense that it taught us a few lessons on investment timing. Only three of 11 shares ended in profit and that included ASOS itself: congratulations to legend for BNH and bosley for SEO. Back to the drawing board for the rest of us (over the year the portfolio would have thrashed any opposition!).

Participants welcome for the second challenge. Primary objective is to find shares that will double in value by 1st July, beating ASC in the process; secondary to be most successful stock-picker in terms of the value of your 20K portfolio. Rules are:

1.Each participant has 20K which can go into 1,2,3 or 4 shares in units of 5K.
2.ASC has 20K and is team yardstick, not in individual portfolios.
3.Duplication between entrants OK with no upper limit for total for one share.
4.Start weekend of 21st Jan. Buy price half way between closing offer and mid.
5.Latest time of entry to be 8 pm on Sunday, 23rd Jan.
6.Challenge to close Friday, 1st July.
7.Entrants can switch up to a total of 10K; av. of Friday close bid and mid.
8.Progress reports to rank shares by performance but also participants (initial only to protect from the ridicule of outsiders!).

Participants welcome. Just post selection here or on ASC thread.

Eric

getting better--but not good enough!

not quite biting my nails , yet , but it's getting close......

MOB is up because they have appointed Hans Snook as Chairman---former Chief and bigwig of Orange. Great possibilities with this share--I only wish I had some funds to buy!

Sorry haven't been around for the last few weeks but work got in the way.

Moneyplus already highlighted reason for recent rise in MOB and I agree that this should be just the beginning of a good move North.

WNN is in my opinion even better value, AGM statement was just about as bullish as you can get and trading on a significant discount to the sector. Merryl Lynch have been mopping up the shares over the last month or two.

Happy with being 12.5% in profit but can only genuflect to the top 4, outstanding performances.

Keep up the good work Eric

capa

capa

Without SEO bos would be up 11% and the other three of us in top 4 would be in negative territory. So plus 12.5% is a good performance and moneyplus and optomistic have performed well. Proves the point that you only need to pick one share and run it if its the right one. Missed you around the palce.

Eric

Apologies! Did the update last Sunday but presumably didn't complete post correctly. Another of those senior moments! Will cover 2 weeks this weekend.

Eric

SECOND ASOS CHALLENGE PORTFOLIO

Three weeks to go. Anyone who has invested in the whole portfolio (!!) is up 12%; down 1.1% on the week but that would have been up but for SEO. The individual contest is hotting up to a really tight finish.

epic cost___ shares_ price_ value gain% wk19 wk20
SEO_ 7.19___ 456900_ 24.25 110798 237.3 -1.0 -6.7 BBSSUUW(137)
BGC_ 84.8___ 5900___ 166.75 9838_ 96.6_ 13.4 9.7_ K(137)
DGT_ 0.28___ 3570000 0.45__ 16065 60.7_ 0.0_ 12.5 WY(137)
HCEG 63_____ 7935___ 92.0__ 7300_ 46.0_ -5.4 5.1_ O(151)
NLR_ 394.5__ 5080___ 544.5_ 27661 38.0_ -3.3 0.5_ CDMM(137)
DFD_ 136____ 3675___ 182.5_ 6707_ 34.2_ 0.0_ 8.3_ A(151)
MOB_ 230.75_ 2165___ 306.0_ 6625_ 32.6_ 9.0_ -2.4 C(151)
BAG_ 811____ 615____ 1015.0 6242_ 25.2_ 8.0_ 0.6_ P(151)
DGM_ 18.19__ 110000_ 21.75_ 23925 19.6_ 2.4_ 2.4_ BEMS(137)
CRDA 327.375 1525___ 385.0_ 5871_ 17.6_ 0.2_ 1.7_ P(151)
BGT_ 130.5__ 7660___ 148.5_ 11375 13.8_ -0.4 14.7 JJ(137)
GHH_ 191.5__ 2610___ 209.5_ 5468_ 9.4__ 8.2_ 18.0 G(151)
WNN_ 268.5__ 1790___ 292.5_ 5236_ 8.9__ 2.6_ 4.3_ C
AGL_ 128.25_ 3900___ 139.5_ 5441_ 8.8__ -6.0 -10.9 B(137)
KCOM 62_____ 16100__ 67.0__ 10787 8.1__ 0.7_ -0.7_ OO(151)
MDW_ 9.09___ 247500_ 9.75__ 24131 7.3__ 3.0_ 14.7_ JSVV(137)
ITR_ 7.81___ 110000_ 8.25__ 9075_ 5.6__ -9.6 0.0__ HH
RSG_ 466.25_ 1070___ 487.5_ 5216_ 4.6__ 0.0_ 3.2__ P(151)
IDS_ 212.5__ 4700___ 222.0_ 10434 4.5__ -0.8 -5.1_ GH(151)
THUS 15.19__ 32900__ 15.5__ 5100_ 2.0__ 11.5 -1.6_ O(151)
TRT_ 87_____ 5750___ 86.5__ 4974_ -0.6_ -3.2 -5.7_ K(151)
PAY_ 255.75_ 1955___ 249.5_ 4878_ -2.4_ 8.2_ 5.1__ M(173)
BPG_ 667.625 1500___ 648.0_ 9720_ -2.9_ 3.1_ 3.3__ DP(151)
ACE_ 258.25_ 1935___ 248.0_ 4799_ -4.0_ -2.1 8.5__ G(151)
TND_ 22.5___ 111000_ 20.75_ 23033 -7.8_ -2.5 7.8__ LLLLR(173)
PDX_ 231____ 2165___ 212.5_ 4601_ -8.0_ 5.3_ -3.0_ A(177)
CEY_ 12.625_ 39600__ 11.5__ 4554_ -8.9_ 0.0_ -6.1_ I(137)
PCI_ 10.625_ 47000__ 9.5___ 4465_ -10.6 0.0_ -5.0_ T(151)
CASH 142.25_ 3515___ 121.5_ 4271_ -14.6 -0.8 0.8__ C(173)
SLV_ 11.625_ 40450__ 9.75__ 3944_ -16.1 0.0_ 0.0__ D
AUG_ 256.25_ 3900___ 213.5_ 8327_ -16.7 1.2_ -1.2_ DE(173)
CIU_ 162.25_ 3080___ 131.5_ 4050_ -19.0 0.4_ 0.0__ G(173)
IDOX 11.75__ 42500__ 9.5___ 4038_ -19.1 2.6_ -5.0_ V(173)
NML_ 5.31___ 85750__ 4.0___ 3430_ -24.7 13.3 -5.9_ W
BNH_ 125.25_ 15970__ 93.5__ 14932 -25.3 0.0_ -2.1_ AIRR(173)
FTO_ 8.69___ 57500__ 6.25__ 3594_ -28.1 4.3_ 4.2__ Y(173)
GMC_ 19.125_ 52700__ 13.75_ 7246_ -28.1 -7.7 14.6_ TW
AEN_ 697.5__ 717____ 500.0_ 3585_ -28.3 -6.0 -9.1_ J
EPD_ 51_____ 9805___ 36.0__ 3530_ -29.4 0.0_ -5.3_ I(173)
ASC_ 78.5___ 25480__ 55.0__ 14014 -29.9 0.0_ -6.8_ ZZZZ(177)
SPS_ 50.5___ 39600__ 34.5__ 13662 -31.7 1.4_ -4.2_ AIKK(173)
PET_ 53.75__ 9300___ 36.0__ 3348_ -33.0 -6.4 -1.4_ R(177)
DES_ 62.25__ 8030___ 36.5__ 2931_ -41.4 18.9 0.7__ H(177)
GWP_ 120.25_ 8315___ 70.5__ 5862_ -41.4 1.3_ -41.7 EE(151)
KYS_ 15.875_ 63000__ 9.25__ 5828_ -41.7 2.9_ 5.7__ UU(173)
XEN_ 7.44___ 67200__ 4.125_ 2772_ -44.6 -2.9 -2.9_ V(173)
BPRG 67.25__ 14870__ 35.5__ 5279_ -47.2 -14.2 -6.0 TT(137)
TAD_ 9.375__ 53300__ 4.875_ 2598_ -48.0 2.4_ -7.1_ Y(177)
PMD_ 0.875__ 571400_ 0.2___ 1143_ -77.1 -16.7 -46.7 Y(173)

Totals__________________ 492699.4 12.0_ 0.0__ -1.1
small-cap__ 2891.87_ 2884.1______ -0.3_ 1.4__ 0.8

Six really good performers this week:

GHH up 18% following 8.2% last week. Excellent results for this optical instrument manufacturer with profits up 56%. Like the look of their forward strategy which involves a movement into higher value systems products. (seadog?)

MDW up 14.7% coming back from a bigger rise. Expectation building of appointment of US distrirbutor. (jules, seb or petralva?)

BGT also up 14.7%. sp seems to have come back too far; share play recently in Shares; approaching launch of their exciting Bubble product for pre-school children. I was unfortunately shaken out to cover a fall in SEO. (jules again?)

GMC up 14.6% on closure of a large sales order. Difficult to determine the proper value following a substantial recent acquisition - hope they haven't done a Yoomedia). (jgt and I included this)

DGT (formerly CFP) up 12.5%. No real explanation except that CEO has been building up his holding. The prospective results are well known on the thread because the contracts are very visible for this NOMAD and broker for the AIM market. My expectation, with others, is for a price in the 0.7p to 0.8p range on the first half trading results, probably late July.

BGC up 9.7% following 13.4% last week. (kivver?)

On the downside there have been horrible falls in GWP (41.7%) and PMD (46.7%). GWP have been forced to complete another clinical trial before approval is given by the US authorities; I suspect the price fall is overdue because they are well through an additional clinical trial anyway and there are no significant concerns re their drug.

PMD is a different matter. They ahve been foced into a sale of their US subsiduary to repay a bank loan from Barclays - they have a one month extension to end-June from Barclays. Price fall yesterday suggests the worst.

Any significant moves expected in your shares in the next few weeks? I am very confident indeed in a major boost to ASOS in their July trading statement. sp has actually fallen on a positve report, presumably because the warehouse move has been set for August, rather than May. Big increase in registered users and major increase in hits on website. An excellent time to buy in for as sure a winner as you will find and that includes, you will be surprised to hear me say, SEO. By that I mean that the risks are far lower. The potential return on SEO is still massive but there are definable risks and the share is not for the faint-hearted. ASOS is a one-way street with a terrific formula and a substantial existing market from the high-street retailers to be acquired.

B 125.8 K 8.2_ E -20.0
S 125.4 J 1.6_ R -22.9
W_ 63.0 D -0.6 Y -23.2
U_ 61.5 G -2.3 I -23.9
M_ 23.4 A -7.7 Z -29.9
O_ 15.9 L -7.9 T -36.4
C_ 15.2 V -12.3
P_ 10.9 H -13.9

Well, bos remains ahead by the smallest of margins. Where is seb? - anyone met him on a thread anywhere? Does he know that bos has offered a prize for the winner, assuming it to be himself? lol! Its basically MDW against AGL: a riser against a faller, though without known cause other than no news. My money is on MDW with a US deal likely soon.

Yours truly edged into third with only one SEO portion on the back of GMC and DGT with KYS not helping markus at all. The next 6 in the list are all making progress so there is much honour to be played for. Doubt whether we will make it to Shares but I suspect we played a part in stimulating their Champion Investor competition.

Eric

ooooooooooooo it's neck and neck!!!! i have no idea about why agl has fallen especialy when there has been some good news flow recently and ,i think, more to come. i suspect it's a bit of a fake fall and that agl will climb again soon. wether it will happen in time to keep seb behind me , i don't know. anway, if seb does win , i will buy him a drink in donny! great work , eric, and i am pretty sure mam "borrowed" your idea. what a pity the prizes arn't the same. i would have been well up by now!!!!

bgc - varisolve expected to be allowed to be trialed in the US very soon. Announcement could come this week. If it fails, big fall to come!

Eric, I hear what you say about PMD, but I really do believe they are going to crawl out of this hole. Their Programme Master company is the best money earner of all and (god forbid, it`s part of their sell off !! ) then I`m sure they have enough credibility etc to remain in the market. I know it seems iffy, but I am going in for another million this week and if this comes good I`ll take you, PTH, OG and Stockdog to Ireland for a long weekend`s golf. We`ll have to have a 3 and a 2 ball though, but we can mix it up over 4 games !!!!

Thanks snakey, I don't even know who PMD are, but I'll gladly accept the trip. Now where is that research button?

pth

Eric, PMD are Profile Media and they were the first subject of your `downsiders` on 11th June. I`m not bein` smart, just to let you review their problems.

Eric,
As I said my three were picked solely on their 12 month trend line. Have read a little about GHH and they are leadrers in a small niche market, and are doing well but I don't hold any !!! SD

snakey: Great golfing offer! Hope it comes good. By the way, it was pth who queried who PMD are. I did research them before making the content so was aware of the Barclays Bank threat and the proposed sell-off action, which I hope is not the crown jewels. Monday's recovery suggests positive developments - if the odds are better thane ven on recovery then the upside is certainly larger than the downside (even though that ends in zilch!).

Eric

pth,
PMD have got rid of the millstone today and am expecting reasonable increase up to, and beyond, results at end of this month. would expect a positive statement from them as their finances should look a little healthier now.
hope you got some and hope my confidence proves correct !!

NLR and WNN on a roll, lots more to come with WNN imo.

Any chance of extending the closing date Eric?

capa

SECOND ASOS CHALLENGE PORTFOLIO

Pretty good week for the portfolio - up 3.9% for 16.3% overall, compared with 1.1% and 0.8% respectively for the small cap index. Some really strong moveers during the week. capa so delighted with WNN and NLR he has aked for extension of teh close-off date in a fortnight's time. He has moved up to 6th and has a certain attractive filly looking over her shoulder! Change at the top with bos knocked off his perch for the first time, I think, since week 1.

epic cost___ shares_ price_ value_ gain% wk20
SEO_ 7.19___ 456900_ 23.75_ 108514 230.3 -2.1 BBSSUUW(137)
DGT_ 0.28___ 3570000 0.64__ 22848_ 128.6 42.2 WY(137)
BGC_ 84.8___ 5900___ 167.0_ 9853__ 96.9_ 0.1_ K(137)
NLR_ 394.5__ 5080___ 676.5_ 34366_ 71.5_ 24.2 CDMM(137)
HCEG 63_____ 7935___ 93.5__ 7419__ 48.4_ 1.6_ O(151)
DFD_ 136____ 3675___ 189.0_ 6946__ 39.0_ 3.6_ A(151)
BAG_ 811____ 615____ 1025.0 6304__ 26.4_ 1.0_ P(151)
MOB_ 230.75_ 2165___ 291.5_ 6311__ 26.3_ -4.7 C(151)
WNN_ 268.5__ 1790___ 334.5_ 5988__ 24.6_ 14.4 C
MDW_ 9.09___ 247500_ 11.25_ 27844_ 23.8_ 15.4 JSVV(137)
CRDA 327.375 1525___ 386.0_ 5887__ 17.9_ 0.3_ P(151)
DGM_ 18.19__ 110000_ 21.0__ 23100_ 15.4_ -3.4 BEMS(137)
KCOM 62_____ 16100__ 69.5__ 11190_ 12.1_ 3.7_ OO(151)
AGL_ 128.25_ 3900___ 139.5_ 5441__ 8.8__ 0.0_ B(137)
IDS_ 212.5__ 4700___ 231.0_ 10857_ 8.7__ 4.1_ GH(151)
RSG_ 466.25_ 1070___ 497.5_ 5323__ 6.7__ 2.1_ P(151)
ITR_ 7.81___ 110000_ 8.25__ 9075__ 5.6__ 0.0_ HH
GHH_ 191.5__ 2610___ 202.0_ 5272__ 5.5__ -3.6 G(151)
BGT_ 130.5__ 7660___ 137.5_ 10533_ 5.4__ -7.4 JJ(137)
THUS 15.19__ 32900__ 15.75_ 5182__ 3.7__ 1.6_ O(151)
PAY_ 255.75_ 1955___ 252.5_ 4936__ -1.3_ 1.2_ M(173)
CEY_ 12.625_ 39600__ 12.25_ 4851__ -3.0_ 6.5_ I(137)
TRT_ 87_____ 5750___ 84.0__ 4830__ -3.4_ -2.9 K(151)
BPG_ 667.625 1500___ 642.5_ 9638__ -3.8_ -0.8 DP(151)
TND_ 22.5___ 111000_ 20.75_ 23033_ -7.8_ 0.0_ LLLLR(173)
ACE_ 258.25_ 1935___ 237.5_ 4596__ -8.0_ -4.2 G(151)
PDX_ 231____ 2165___ 210.5_ 4557__ -8.9_ -0.9 A(177)
CASH 142.25_ 3515___ 127.5_ 4482__ -10.4 4.9_ C(173)
AUG_ 256.25_ 3900___ 225.0_ 8775__ -12.2 5.4_ DE(173)
GMC_ 19.125_ 52700__ 16.5__ 8696__ -13.7 20.0 TW
PCI_ 10.625_ 47000__ 9.0___ 4230__ -15.3 -5.3 T(151)
SLV_ 11.625_ 40450__ 9.75__ 3944__ -16.1 0.0_ D
IDOX 11.75__ 42500__ 9.5___ 4038__ -19.1 0.0_ V(173)
FTO_ 8.69___ 57500__ 6.625_ 3809__ -23.8 6.0_ Y(173)
CIU_ 162.25_ 3080___ 122.5_ 3773__ -24.5 -6.8 G(173)
BNH_ 125.25_ 15970__ 93.5__ 14932_ -25.3 0.0_ AIRR(173)
AEN_ 697.5__ 717____ 512.5_ 3675__ -26.5 2.5_ J
ASC_ 78.5___ 25480__ 57.5__ 14651_ -26.8 4.5_ ZZZZ(177)
NML_ 5.31___ 85750__ 3.75__ 3216__ -29.4 -6.3 W
EPD_ 51_____ 9805___ 36.0__ 3530__ -29.4 0.0_ I(173)
SPS_ 50.5___ 39600__ 34.0__ 13464_ -32.7 -1.4 AIKK(173)
PET_ 53.75__ 9300___ 36.0__ 3348__ -33.0 0.0_ R(177)
KYS_ 15.875_ 63000__ 10.5__ 6615__ -33.9 13.5 UU(173)
DES_ 62.25__ 8030___ 41.0__ 3292__ -34.1 12.3 H(177)
PMD_ 0.875__ 571400_ 0.52__ 2971__ -40.6 160.0 Y(173)
XEN_ 7.44___ 67200__ 4.125_ 2772__ -44.6 0.0_ V(173)
GWP_ 120.25_ 8315___ 63.5__ 5280__ -47.2 -9.9 EE(151)
TAD_ 9.375__ 53300__ 4.75__ 2532__ -49.3 -2.6 Y(177)
BPRG 67.25__ 14870__ 34.0__ 5056__ -49.4 -4.2 TT(137)
totals___________________ 511769.5 16.3_ 3.9
small-cap__ 2891.87 2915.8________ 0.8__ 1.1

Last week's disaster area, PMD, is this week's star with the sale of tehir loss making subsiduary, staving off their bankers. snakey called this one and is positive for the future (post 287).

snakey and I have also benefitted from a significant jump in DGT (42.4%)(formerly CFP). Letter from pth in Shares with a defensive response from John Marshall may have helped to trigger move, though volumes have not been large. stockdog has done a very good analysis of the potential results as their business as AIM NOMADs is pretty transparent. Much further to go.

Other significant movers are NLR (24.2%) and GMC (20%), presumably in the light of attention on the gaming sector, MDW (15.4%), WNN (14.4%) (see CAPA's note above) and, rising from the doldrums, KYS (13.5%) and DES (12.3%).

S 125.0 D 8.7_ H -11.0
B 121.3 K 7.1_ I -22.6
W 81.4_ Y 3.7_ E -22.8
U 62.7_ J 2.0_ R -22.9
M 39.5_ V -4.1 Z -26.7
C 26.9_ G -4.7 T -35.8
O 19.0_ A -7.0
P 11.7_ L -7.9

seb's move to the top is on the basis of cotinued strength in MDW; AGL needs news if bos is to repsond I reckon. My own move into a clear third place is gratifying, based on really good progress with both DGT and GMC. Come to think of it, an extension to end-July could give me the chance to catch seb and bos! lol!

Good headway by moneyplus, based on NLR. Just as well with capa overtaking optimistic and into 5th place. The other major move is by snakey - into positive territory based on PMD and DGT.

Its good to see some half the shares in the blue to match the weather. More optimism afoot.

Eric

p.s. ASOS prelims on 11th July. They are getting them out pretty quickly and I think their trading report will make very positive reading. BUY!

All in all a good week for the challenge. Have a good weekend all-I'm off to see my brand new first grand daughter born this morning in London, hope the weathers good up there it's been pretty poor in Devon so far. MP

moneyplus: getting jolly hot in the south east so bring the bikini. Congratulations on first grand daughter: name and weight? Second grandson due in a couple of weeks! EWR