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Been working on these odds for Sunday this morning. None of it makes any sense from a statistical perspective. Also weird to note that large bookmakers are finding it difficult to quote on Fulham vs Norwich and Southampton vs Man Utd. I do not know why. I note a lot of the spread bettors do not have quotes on these markets and subsets.

From the perspective of stats vs market prices the odds on the relegation teams are completely out of proportion to the theoretical odds.

Roughly working out I see the following:-

Soton vs Man Utd
Theory 3.27, 3.87, 2.30
Market 2.52, 4.10, 2.70

Fulham vs Norwich
Theory 1.64, 4.35, 6.23
Market 3.10, 3.85, 2.34

West Brom vs Portsmouth
Theory 1.70, 4.03, 6.09
Market 1.66, 4.00, 6.20

Charlton vs Crystal Palace
Theory 1.75, 4.98, 4.39
Market 3.40, 3.55, 2.30

So, Only the West Brom vs Portsmouth match appears to be priced at normal value. The others have a very very heavy bias to the miracle of the last day. All the subset markets are reflecting the same issues. So next goal, total goals and correct score are significantly adrift from "normal" value. Of course the great unquantifiable here is just how much this great escape motivation will play on the last day. Also the motivation for the opposing teams must play on this. Curious stuff. Never seen such pricing but then again I have never seen such an end to the season!

Thanks Script, based on that summary I am going to stick to the horses this weekend.

I also don't think I could stay calm enough on Sunday to focus on trading correctly.

Weirdness is the flavour this weekend.

Roma vs Lazio, Under 2's for the draw!!!

For those who are into tennis the QF game between Federer and Coria is due to start soon. These 2 are by far the best in the tournament and the winner of this IMO should go on to win it outright.

It should be a tight game with good trading opportunities but Fed should edge it.

Fundy and Harlosh, If you're both free middle of next week how about an evening out?

Bakko

Can do any night monday to thursday

Fundy,

If we provisionally make it for next Wed and confirm as soon as OK with John.

"Harlosh - 12 May'05 - 16:38 - 2743 of 2754
Been a good day Steve. None of this loading one side with 50,000 and all that funny business. Scrip must be away today then!!"

LOL!

By a coincidence I have been away most of this week working and commuting in and out of London; so very little activity for me on the horses. In fact this month has been a bit of a mare as I have so many things on. Looking forward to getting back behind the desk.

I may be in Liverpool next Friday, will let you know as the week progresses.

Anyone trading the horses this evening, Downpatrick running approx 25 mins late

bakko,

Wednesday fine by me.

Fundy and Harlosh,

I've sent an internal email to you both

Bakko

email received - sounds like a good night out to me - looking forward to it - is there a dress code - ie trousers and shirt???

John, are we making our own ways there?

Fundy,

No formal dress code as long as smart casual. Just an empty stomach!

Major league fun and games on the Spanish soccer today. I get a feeling it will be the same tomorrow. I think my advice will be to focus on the relegation and UEFA scrap and lay anything at short odds. Anything could happen.

"Glazer, owner of the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, had secured control of 74.81% of Manchester United shares by the close of trading yesterday only a fraction short of the 75% needed for total control of the club.

Supporters are expected to voice their anger at the deal during the teams final Premiership fixture at Southampton tomorrow."

Best of Luck to you and your team tomorrow, Scrip. It certainly should be an interesting match. Anything could happen here - and it probably will.

:-)

Scrip

the barca game turned into a farce - thankfully i worked out what was happening early enough and managed to lay barca from 4s and kept laying - if barca had tried to score in the last couple of minutes id have been in a lot of trouble lol

The odds for tomorrows mathches are still moving around quite a bit. There are a lot of price errors out there as nobody can seem to price the market up properly. I suggesting drifting around the bookies to arb the differences. I nipped onto Bet direct and could indentify a couple of arbs in a few minutes.

Will be an interesting day.

Just taking another look at how the odds for the bottom four are compared to when i layed earlier in the week:

Saints, laid at 2.38 currently 2.7
Palace, laid at 2.34 currently 2.54
Norwich, laid at 2.34 currently 2.58
W Brom, laid at 1.69 currently 1.64

So all of the away sides have drifted approx 20 points, W Brom have shortened approx 5 points so overall currently nicely in profit.

Decision time - do i close out now, just before kick off or allow to go into running??

Going to back tottenham at home to balckburn (its about money not emotion) - they need a big win for any chance of european qualification and arsenal at 1.9 look a big price depending on the team wenger puts out - henry will definitely play part/all the game, campbell likely to play all the game and ljundberg set to return for part/all of game but i dare say he may rest viera/pires/bergkamp