rather than pick out individual stocks to trade, it can often be worthwhile to trade the indices themselves, especially in times of high volatility.

for those so inclined, i attach below charts for FTSE and FTSE 250, though one might equally be tempted to trade Dow or S&P, which is significantly broader in its coverage, or even NASDAQ

for ease of reading, i have attached 1 year and 3 month charts in each instance

now we have the recently unusual situation where one has to work out how much puff the markets have left in them ...... if memory serves me aright, last recession time around, once the markets started recovering, they just kept on going ...... however, i just have a feeling that we could have a sell off in NY in the last hour or trading, not so much from fright but while awaiting over the w/e the thoughts of the so-called gurus as to what lies ahead over say the next 4/6months

Slightly off topic. I've been looking at spread betting accounts, and was thinking of giving ODL a try. Main reasons being they have a limited risk style account (so I can only lose whatever money I put in the account) and it looks like bets from 50p upto a max of 5. I've always avoided SB/CFD accounts as they seemed a bit dangerous if used carelessly. Does anyone use ODL, and if so, any comments.

Thanks

Strawbs.

Cynic, don't know if you can access the On-line Shares Mag, but well worth reading Russ Mould's article. I know it's only an opinion, but most of the points he is making seem to be pretty valid to me. You mention 'last recession time round' but we haven't actually been in recession for more than a month! Bit quick for a turnaround don't you think???
"Lehman is not the low point
Published date:Thursday, September 18, 2008
It is time for the markets to calm down so a bottom can be called with confidence
by Russ Mould

The collapse of Lehman Brothers, rescue takeover of Merrill Lynch by Bank of America and turmoil at AIG has prompted suggestions markets will soon bottom out. Shares, however, is not so convinced as high levels of volatility point to further falls ahead. Shares research shows equity market volatility has now exceeded the levels seen in 1998, during the Long Term Capital Management Crisis and 2000, when the technology, media and telecoms bull market was in its death throes. This is a bad sign and suggests we have yet to reach the bottom of the current bear market. Only when the markets cease to flip around from day to day, chasing news, can a bottom be called with any confidence. Etc Etc........

i've actually got shares mag but have not got round to opening it yet as am too engrossed with playing our own club's version of the ryder cup and watching the real thing ...... actually, sounds as though i may well agree with what the mag says, and for all our nerves, we could do with a few weeks or relative inaction and boredom

meanwhile, have opened a small short on Dow, but shall try not to get too greedy, if i get the chance

How is this for foresight, I have pasted a extract from David Dreman who writes in Forbes magazine and is a well known Contrarian investors. Article written on 17th July. See below...........

(The government is under intense pressure to avoid additional bailouts like the one of Bear Stearns (nyse: BSC - news - people ), even if it has effectively guaranteed that it will keep Fannie Mae (nyse: FNM - news - people ) and Freddie Mac (nyse: FRE - news - people ) afloat. But benign neglect will not do. A run on an investment bank such as Lehman Brothers (nyse: LEH - news - people ) could lead to panic, as trillions of dollars in derivatives guaranteed by investment bankers, banks and hedge funds threatened to collapse. A single big investment bank's default might make its competitors seize up too, since nobody can unravel who owes what to whom.)

I have been following his comments, and will be watching him closely for further insight.

I've heard a vague rumour that the US government is putting some sort of 'protection' around Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley - in which case markets would be expected to surge again today. This is only a vague thing I've heard on the radio; if anyone has any details please let us know - thanks!

from the bbc

The last two major investment banks in the US have changed their status to become bank holding companies, allowing them to take deposits from investors.
The changes should enable Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley to raise more funds by opening commercial banks.

full story can be found on cnnfn.com, but it really is far too long to post ...... headline is

Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley to face more oversight from the Federal Reserve. Change provides more funding and opens door to more mergers.

Thanks Cynic and Global Nomad

why are you now at the office this morning?
confess i am still finishing my coffe at home before strolling to the (pretend) work place!

I'm avoiding the office Cynic - nice trip planned to Oxford today!

did not realise that was today ..... was going to ask you ...... good luck!

All over the place this morning (DOW). Was -77, then -40, then -70 & now -14.
Your SOLA short might be a bit short lived Cynic.
Hedge funds pulling out of commodities are tipped to give this sector a bit of a boost over the next month, otherwise sentiment still in favour of inflation & recession.

don't ask for long life, or at least not for my investments ..... a bit of instant gratification will suffice at my age!

following is clearly why NY is looking chirpier, though i am surprised it is felt to be that exciting .....

Japanese financial services firm Mitsubishi UFJ unveils plan to acquire a 10%-20% stake in Morgan Stanley. More soon.

Strange that asian stocks were all up today between 1.5 - 4% on what they considered to be good news in the U.S., yet european stocks are all flat.
As you say, DOW looking very much happier at the open now.

but falling away a bit again - as i expected it to do ..... am happy to leave my modest Dow short running

Good call. Currently -56. Might be news influenced today then.
EDIT now -106 (14.45 hrs)

Just an opinion, but worth a mention:
"The bottom of the bear market has probably been left behind but it could take until mid-2009 before a bull market takes off, Morgan Stanley says in a European equity strategy note.
'There is a good chance that the low point of this bear market has been reached,' the Wall Street bank says. 'This is not the start of the next bull market, and earnings weakness will be the driving factor again at some point in the next few quarters.'
'The fundamental outlook for some critical elements remains troublesome,' it says, citing an earnings recession, banks' balance sheet repair and falling U.S. house prices.
'The next bull market can only start one, maybe two quarters before these aspects bottom out, which we believe will be at the end of 2009.'
'Now we are in the 'bumping-along-the-bottom-phase' during which fundamentals do not improve but new lows are not made,' Morgan Stanley says.

Reuters Messaging rm://peter.starck.reuters.com@reuters.net

do you believe the above Harry?
anyway, meanwhile, Dow is hovering around the 11275 support .... which way next?

doubled up at 11255 ..... smart move? .... we shall see