Results out soon in August.

Broker recos look very bullish and why not on a P/E of just over 6 to 2011.....

Thomas Cook Group PLC

FORECASTS 2010 2011
Date Rec Pre-tax (�) EPS (p) DPS (p) Pre-tax (�) EPS (p) DPS (p)

Panmure Gordon
02-08-10 BUY 319.00 27.10 11.30 338.00 28.70 12.40

Exane BNP Paribas
02-08-10 BUY 116.00 26.62 10.75 319.00 28.87 11.66

Numis Securities Ltd
02-08-10 ADD 324.20 27.60 11.25 357.10 29.90 11.81

Oriel Securities
02-08-10 BUY 330.40 28.40 11.40 363.50 31.30 12.10

KBC Peel Hunt Ltd
30-07-10 BUY 301.06 25.22 10.75 313.36 26.23 10.93

WestLB
30-07-10 SELL 28.81 11.52 29.91 11.96

Shore Capital
30-07-10 HOLD 312.00 26.50 11.80 347.00 29.50 13.00

Charles Stanley Securities
15-06-10 HOLD

Evolution Securities Ltd
11-02-10 None

Investec Securities [R]
09-02-10 BUY 327.00 27.30 11.74 352.23 29.39 12.49

Fyshe Horton Finney Ltd
25-01-10 BUY

Collins Stewart
24-12-09 BUY

Nomura Research Institute
25-09-09 RED

2010 2011
Pre-tax (�) EPS (p) DPS (p) Pre-tax (�) EPS (p) DPS (p)

Consensus 316.42 26.98 11.36 342.50 29.39 11.96

1 Month Change 1.07 -0.22 0.01 3.43 -0.14 -0.14
3 Month Change -11.92 -1.09 -0.05 -11.79 -1.00 -0.44


GROWTH
2009 (A) 2010 (E) 2011 (E)

Norm. EPS 2.76% 0.38% 8.92%
DPS 14.03% 10.80% 5.26%

INVESTMENT RATIOS
2009 (A) 2010 (E) 2011 (E)

EBITDA �574.90m �589.69m �613.90m
EBIT �372.50m �420.55m �447.05m
Dividend Yield 5.38% 5.96% 6.27%
Dividend Cover 2.62x 2.38x 2.46x
PER 7.10x 7.07x 6.49x
PEG 2.57f 18.55f 0.73f
Net Asset Value PS -240.80p 224.47p 240.43p

its come a long way in too short a time.......beware.
I like the share long term but it looks overvalued right now.

From Travel Weekly;


Thomas Cook unveils peak TV ad

Thomas Cook has chosen a “light-hearted” television advert to showcase its cross-channel price promise and peak offers including “10% Off” and “Kids for a Quid”.

The TV activity forms part of a £5 million-plus turn-of-year marketing campaign, though the advert itself was created for the German market and has previously been seen across Continental Europe.

The advert features a Thomas Cook customer who sabotages his return transfer coach in order to extend his holiday, and launches on Christmas Day with slots including during Coronation Street on ITV.

The tone of the advert is in stark contrast to rival Tui’s, which focuses on memories of holidays and how its resort product has been updated.

Mike Hoban, marketing, sales and e-commerce director for Thomas Cook, said: “We know that many people stayed at home in 2012 as a result of financial concerns, but then were deflated when it rained – we’re looking to put a smile on people’s faces as they look forward to their holiday in 2013, highlighting the great offers we have on every Thomas Cook holiday.

“The peak campaign and trading period is a massively important part of our calendar - this year will see our biggest marketing campaign for many a year.”

He added: “Our campaign also launches in-store and online too, as well as regional radio across the UK – all highlighting the three ways to book and our new promise that however you book, you’ll pay the best price.”

TCG Thomas Cook.

MoneyAol Money

Britons 'to splash out on holidays'
By Press Association, Dec 28, 2012

Britons plan to spend more on holidays in 2013 and to take slightly longer trips.

On average, the length of a main holiday next year will increase 0.6 days to 9.66 days, a TravelSupermarket poll of more than 5,000 holidaymakers showed.

http://money.aol.co.uk/2012/12/28/britons-to-splash-out-on-holidays/?

According to brokers, somewhere between 45p - 50p is about right.
Do TCG report quarterly? Skinny mentioned trading update in Jan a while back, but can't find anything to back that up. Last results were up to end of Sept.

A list of results for 2012 for TC if that helps Harry.

Preliminary Results
28 November 2012

Pre-close Trading Update
28 September 2012 N/A N/A
Interim Management Statement
02 August 2012 N/A N/A
Interim Results
31 May 2012

Pre-close Trading Update
28 March 2012 N/A N/A
Interim Management Statement
08 February 2012

All the Above from TC company site.

Harry - I said early next year - I think its February - I'll try and (re) find the source.

On edit :- over lapped with DC's post above.

Thanks. So presumably we are expecting an Interim Management statement within the next 5-6 weeks. Lets hope they are making good profit from their holiday packages. Sometimes the "stack 'em high, sell 'em cheap" approach doesn't work, but the new management hopefully know what they are doing.

I read yesterday they are in a price war with Tui .

cheap holidays in Egypt this coming year!

Any thing else going cheap halifax, been there. :-))

Syria?

I am well used to blokes on our Nile cruise boat with machine guns. Thanks skin i will take a look. :-))

Natalie Thomas
Leisure Correspondent
Thomas Cook 47p

Not even Harriet Green, the upbeat new chief executive of Thomas Cook, could deny that 2012 was an annus horribilis for the 171-year-old tour operator.

The past 12 months have seen the company slump to a £485.3m loss, lay off 1,250 staff, agree a £1.4bn financing package on pretty punishing terms and part with a number of assets.

While 2013 is unlikely to be an “annus mirabilis”, there is recognition that the tour operator is now over the worst and some parts of the City believe Thomas Cook represents a buying opportunity.

Green has identified £100m of costs that can be stripped out and more savings are expected early next year, potentially in the form of job cuts, shop closures and a further downsizing of the aircraft fleet.

Debt, at £788m, is too high and it is expected Thomas Cook will have to raise £300m to £400m to ease its balance sheet.

However, even after an equity-raising, analysts believe the shares, which have added 31p over the past 12 months, have potential. Credit Suisse estimates that post a £300m rights issue, Thomas Cook would trade on a multiple of 4.9 times.

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/personalfinance/investing/9771195/Top-ten-share-tips-for-2013.html?frame=2214176

MARKET REPORT: Sun is shining for travel firm Thomas Cook



http://www.dailymail.co.uk/money/markets/article-2255441/MARKET-REPORT-Sun-shining-travel-firm-Thomas-Cook.html

Ten bob a share.

The Independent - After a tip-top year, here's our 10 for 2013
Tue Jan 1

http://sharecrazy.com/beta/newsflow

GF, wrong link, you need this one After a tip-top year, here's our 10 for 2013

Ok cheers skinny.

Invesco 17% -> 16% (yesterday).