Today they have fallen 22% to a new low of 223p ..are they another Marconi..?



The chart looks like one long suicide note.

((Clubman3509, I agree in Principle, but these guys know each other . . . they have been buddies for a few years and are unlikley to play rough. Rewards for failure an all that.... Sadly as mostly LLOY holder, I suspect we pay too much....))

Yet today's [HBOS] Buys and Sells are pretty even so far, and I suspect HBOS/LLOY is a decent fit as it stood. (Ann. just recently.)
However, IF it goes through ( and I expect it will!) then maybe you get a better deal by buying HBOS (now), rather than LLOY (i.e. now).
The movement in these shares is quite small considering the wild excesses over the Atlantic....and a few other Institutions finding difficulty in Europe - - - etc.

-These days are shaking quite hard!

Why HBOS fall? . . . if it doesn't go through, then HBOS is in weak territory . . . . so it depends on this . . . . hence the 10% fall represents this risk, . . . . .?

+ I can't see UK-Gov. letting this merger fail - the consequences of having a third bank failure in 160 years ( on GB's watch), will go down in history as Brown-Foolery, his mistake IMHO was to believe any early success was due to his presence (the Tories left him a decent Chest) and then he spent,spent,spent, + robbing Pension funds and recently several "bad-calls" like the 10p tax-rate which affected a small number of poor people out of proportion to any tax it raised. Folk on the breadline, want to keep their crusts! MP's earn so much they cannot understand the average, or below-average earners - and it might be said Pensioners whose real incomes slip down year on year . . . . yet tax/Duty/Fines remain the same whatever your income.

The lack of any reserves is also close to criminal, considering the vast tax-take he's presided over. That we now have to borrow makes us very weak Internationally. Then he did sell our Gold during a dip . . .+ so it goes on. Bad Luck - sure, ....but if you crash your new sports car, maybe you need some more lessons . . . . unfortunately he got them, not on a simulator, but for real AND where "We" have to pay for them. Grr.

Are they worth 49p - with LLOY on board for the Deal YES, without LLOY maybe another failure, particularly if the US refinancing doesn't go through.

hangon you forgot about Gordens biggest blunder

From The Sunday TimesApril 15, 2007

Goldfinger Browns 2 billion blunder in the bullion market
Chancellor ignored advice on sell-off

The sale of 400 tons of gold by Gordon Brown will have disasterous consequences for Britain. ... and how much did he get for it ?

Talk that Lloyds are to offer less money for Hbos is undermining the shares today.

Where is all this speculative talk/nonsense about a lower offer from Lloyds coming from?

The offer document has already been posted to HBOS shareholders and as far as I am aware, that is a legally binding document. So the offer terms can not be changed.

Please feel free to correct me if I am being naive. LOL

The market must have doubts about the takeover happening in it's present form, because with hbos at 123p and lloy at 225p the gap is increasing, and is along way from a fair post takerover price for hbos at about 186p.

phew! one of the very few intelligent moves i have made of late was to sell at 250 the day after after the bid was announced

lloy is starting to move into positive territory now, the only bank to do so, there's something happening behind the scenes I believe. See news below.

LONDON, Sept 30 (Reuters) - Shares in HBOS, the UK bank that has accepted a bid from rival Lloyds TSB, fell more than 20 percent on Tuesday amid market talk Lloyds could renegotiate the deal.

By 1030 GMT, Lloyds shares were up 3.3 percent at 224.75 pence, giving its bid a value of 186.5 pence under the recommended offer which will see HBOS investors get 0.83 Lloyds shares for every HBOS share they own.

HBOS shares were down 11 percent at 127.2 pence, having earlier fallen as low as 113 pence.

Both banks declined to comment on the talk of a possible renegotiation, but said they were pressing ahead with the acquisition process.

under the old formula, i calculate that with LLOY at 227 (as now), HBOS would have been valued at 188 ...... HBOS is currently 128, so make of that what you will, always bearing in mind that there will always be something of a discount to cater for the time element involved

Probably a good punt if you are of that way of thinking but, not for me, I will stick with Lloyds. Other factor may be the deal to be struck in the US as to how the debts are to be valued.

damn charts are down here (again!), but came to the conclusion that there was little downside at this price

hi gus

watched politics prog on bbc2.......they had usa economist who reckons deal will be out by thursday.....it takes 2 days to get it through congress as both parties haggle over things. i dont know if anyone watched programme but the economist was very interesting to listen to with regard banks

Offer the no's a free lunch if they vote yes

i reckon mr.bush will get his texan gun out and point it at a few of them

Or send his Saudi mates round to have a word with them.

If short selling isn't allowed on Financial Stocks why is Paulson still being allowed to short HBOS? I'm confused.

Regulatory Announcement

Company Paulson & Co. Inc.
TIDM
Headline Short Selling Disclosure- HBOS PLC
Released 15:06 30-Sep-08
Number 7196E15

RNS Number : 7196E
Paulson & Co. Inc.
30 September 2008

TR-4 :
Disclosure of Short Position relating to UK Financial Sector Company

1. Full name of person(s) holding the disclosable short position :Paulson & Co. Inc.

2: Name of the issuer of the relevant securities HBOS PLC

3: Disclosable short position 0.95%

4. Date that disclosable short position was held

29 September 2008

i think they are not forced to close but are obligated (not obliged!) to make daily returns to show position

I think you will find that Paulson had been left with a short position somewhat higher when ban was introduced, but managed to buy hbos yesterday, which lowered the position. They also did the same with lloy yesterday.

Thanks for replies. I thought all short positions had to be closed on the day it was announced and that no more shorting whatsoever was allowed. So the HBOS shares can still be manipulated down.
I do hope Lloyds can have nothing to do with this. It could be an advantage for them. Of course I am not suggesting anything of the sort.

another down day if anything Lloyds are looking the best pick of the banks.

As I understand it companies that had open short position were not allowed to open any more short position, but were free to close them at any time. So as these position are lowered they are required to report the lower position, so I guess they just took advantage of yesterdays lower prices to lower there exposure.

I believe this is how it works, but I'm happy to be corrected if wrong.