The market seems to be selling-off on the back of limited bad news imo, apart from the dollar that is.

If you can hold your nerve and apart from any short term requirements to offload poor performing stocks, I have a couple!!, my advice would be sit tight. This does not have the feel of the tech(mining!) bubble at all. Difference being there are a lot of good fundamentals, unlike in 2000 when there were a lot of over rated nothing companies.

I'm slightly perturbed by news on FT.com that oil stocks have reached one billion barrels.

>> Oil inventories in the developed world rose to more than 1bn barrels, their highest level in more than 20 years, as high prices are weighing on consumption, according to the International Energy Agency, the energy watchdog for the developed world.

The oil inventories are higher than the levels seen in 1998, which triggered an oil price collapse to $10 as oil demand growth started to slow. < <

Full Article

Any views?

It's done it again with the links - apologies, will mention it to the website mechanic.

Normally when everything is looking like it can only get worse.....it does.......the opposite. I wonder if we might actually see a bear rally before the end of the week. The markets have been selling off ahead of the CPI numbers on Wednesday, but given that bulls over estimate the positive, bears also over estimate the negative. Even if the figures turn out to be rather bad, it wouldn't surprise me if we actually saw some kind of a rally afterwards.

Strawbs.

strawbs end of week is key as shorts have to be closed on friday in uk ,us & europe.with the cpi figs to many times they are a non-event as everybody is focused on them.

So as a guess where do we head tomorrow than.are we with a surprise,and a small rally to calm the downward trend.

My guess is that London will open quite sharply down on the back of Wall Street. However, the movements on Dow this evening seemed almost without impetus, notwithstanding that the index closed at its lows. I (wishfully) think that a good bounce could be imminent, though that depends on how bad the US CPI figures turn out tomorrow afternoon. If not too frightening, then we could see quite a sharp turn around, which may be short-lived ..... Or at least that is what I think at the moment, and without any proper logic other than markets cannot and do not keep falling headlong day after day.

Testing the problem with the links for James, please ignore.

Test Link

did it work?

Yes it did.

sould traders,

All seems to be fine now - let me know if you have any further problems pasting links,

Ian

as i posted last night non-event market still not sure if 1 or 2 rate hikes needed

As I posted last night, the DOW has rallied post the CPI figure, even though it was slightly worse than expected. ;-) This may well follow through into the FTSE tomorrow. Either way I doubt that a rally will last for more than a few days before we see another sell off. With more doubts lingering over possible Fed rate rises (think the next one is a cert now), I don't think we'll see any kind of stability until the Autumn, by which time things could look a lot worse for equities. As ever, just my opinion though........

Good luck to anyone still in this market.

Strawbs.

Markets just don't like uncertainties...once things are known...it will bounce back

Dow up 95 as I write

A month since this thread was begun.

I'd be interested in updates opinions. ;-0

hlyeo98 you are right re uncertainties trouble is the june rate is 100%, according to the forward future rates but the next meeting after this one is at the end of august
so unless they become much clearer to the market in will remain in choppy.

No buying until we cross 11000, unfortunately, still looks very volatile, I personally have kept all of my stocks in my self invest isa, long term investments!! the rest I offloaded half, some at a slight loss!, dont like it at the moment and wouldn't want to be over exposed at present. Advice, unless you are very confident buy into one or two stocks only for rallies and try offload for smaller profits, still could go lower, I hope not too, I never short! only go long and am waiting to see if we can get back to 11000 on the dow before I decide what to add.

ellio, 11000 has been crossed now, are you going to get out of isa and get into the markets now... looks like a correction has been overdone last few weeks.

hylyeo98 dont be to sure, as i said the other day,today is the last day for shorts to be closed in uk & us,this is was what has caused the big spikes,if end of next week dow & ftse is higher then what they finish the end of today, then it will look better.

woodie is right ...... one swallow does not a summer make ...... today is likely to be very positive as bears are squeezed a bit and various postions closed, enforced or otherwise ...... it will be held breath for next week as to whether normal trading has been resumed.

Got sent this article about the 'Yen Carry Trade', definately worth a read and then keep an eye on the Bank Of Japan's interest rates, if they rise, it may force another major sell signal:

Dear XXXXXXXXXX

You may not have heard of the yen carry trade...

..But it's been making hedge funds around the world colossal, and ridiculously easy,
profits since the turn of the century.

This year it's likely to come to an abrupt end. And that event could potentially destroy
your investments.

Today, the Bank of Japan (BOJ) decided to keep interest rates at nearly 0%, so the
trade is safe for another few months...

But by the end of the year the BOJ is near certain to raise rates, ending the yen carry
trade, and potentially, causing a catastrophic collapse of the entire global financial
system!

So what, then, is the yen carry trade, and why is it worth worrying about?

-----------------------------------------------------------------------
The catastrophic collapse of the entire global financial system
-----------------------------------------------------------------------

In a currency carry trade, you borrow and then sell a low interest currency, to buy a
high yielding currency...the difference between the two interest rates is your profit.

For years now, Japan's 0% interest rate has made it 'the darling' of carry traders.
Effectively, the Bank of Japan (BOJ) was handing out free money to global investors.

Its intention was to bring Japan out of a decade of deflationary depression, and spur
on Japanese bank investment.

The reality was, however, that the BOJ became the bank to the world.
-----------------------------------------------------------
The bank of Japan becomes the bank of the world
-----------------------------------------------------------

Global investors could borrow money at less than one percent and then invest in US
treasuries at increasingly higher interest rates.

Provided the currency remained relatively stable, and the BOJ constantly intervened
to see that it did, investors were laughing all the way to the bank. It was as good as a
free profit.

And it didn't stop at US treasuries. Bond markets in high cash-rate countries such as
New Zealand, Brazil, Australia and even Iceland became depositories for the free
money.

And why stop at bonds? Property, from London to Shanghai to Sydney to Miami
became a target. Plus, high risk emerging markets that offered substantial returns were
made less risky because funding was so cheap.

-----------------------------------------------
Huge liquidity and commodity hysteria
-----------------------------------------------

Then came the China phenomenon...

Suddenly commodities were on the move and the super cycle thesis was born. As
China surged, similar base metal investment vehicles were introduced. Suddenly all
the world was a speculator.

Global stock markets were also moving. Investors poured into commodity-backed
exchanges as metal price increases drove earnings increases which drove share prices
from miners to truck tyre manufacturers.

Although demand/supply fundamentals were clearly a force behind the commodity
rally, the pure hysteria of the rally was put down to a matter of sheer liquidity.

Since the US has tried to restart its economy after the tech crash, and Europe needed
to spur on growth, money has been cheap and the world has been, as so many
commentators have noted, "awash with liquidity".

And nowhere was money cheaper than in Japan.

---------------------------------------------------------------
Free money, a profit bonanza, and swelling bubbles...
---------------------------------------------------------------

Banks, mutual funds, insurance groups, pension funds and hedge funds the world over
have exploited the availability of liquidity, and exploited the yen carry trade.

No asset class has been left out, as speculative bubbles have developed in emerging
markets, metals, gold, real estate, art you name it.

But now that could all be about to change... and according to many people it could be
very nasty indeed...

"The entire global financial system is on the verge of disintegration, as the
result of the imminent collapse of the yen carry trade." Daily Telegraph

"The multiplier effect of the blowout of the carry trade is going to mean that
the crisis hits with a magnitude far beyond any individual nation or currency.
This will bring down the whole post-Bretton Woods floating exchange rate
system." Lyndon LaRouche, political economist.

David Bloom, currency analyst at HSBC has said that the yen carry trade covers every
single instrument imaginable, so when it comes to an end at the end of this year "it's
going to be ugly".

Now that Japan has begun a genuine recovery, interest rate hikes are inevitable. And,
earlier this year, the BOJ announced its clear intention to do just that in 2006.

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Recent turmoil has stopped the BOJ from raising interest rates in June
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

The only reason the BOJ didn't raise rates yesterday, was because the recent stock
market turmoil has made the bankers nervous that the recovery will not fully
materialise.

But sooner or later the rates must rise.

And when they do there could be a rally in the yen that will force a sudden sell-off in
just about every asset class there is.

It's fair to say that the recent global market and commodity losses have occurred, to a
large extent, in anticipation of the yen carry trade collapse...

..We've seen the FTSE and DOW drop 10%. Emerging markets and commodities like
copper, aluminium, zinc, silver and gold have all dropped around 20%.

When the BOJ puts up interest rates we could see even worse.

As a private investor you're well advised to take stock, revaluate your strategy
and keep an ear to the ground - 2006 looks set to be the most turbulent year of the decade.

Best regards,

Stephen Edwards
Daily Wealth

silvermede thanks for that i dont think you will have to wait that long before another sell off .