< "> edit this post http://www.investegate.co.uk/afren-plc-%28afr%29/rns/trading-statement-and-operations-update/201301210700069619
http://www.investegate.co.uk/afren-plc--afr-/rns/2012-full-year-results/201303250700107200A/

In an attempt to cut down the header page,i've transferred some of the older news to Page1 post No.3.

http://www.oil-price.net/index.php?lang=en
http://www.ft.com/home/uk

http://www.investegate.co.uk/Article.aspx?id=201111020700081674R
http://www.investegate.co.uk/Article.aspx?id=201111150700250723S
http://www.investegate.co.uk/Article.aspx?id=201112010705051251T
http://www.investegate.co.uk/Article.aspx?id=201201170700146472V
http://www.investegate.co.uk/Article.aspx?id=201201230701479690V
http://www.moneyam.com/action/news/showArticle?id=4323758
http://www.investegate.co.uk/Article.aspx?id=201204170700164488B
http://www.investegate.co.uk/Article.aspx?id=201205140700212304D
http://www.investegate.co.uk/Article.aspx?id=201205210700407032D
http://www.moneyam.com/action/news/showArticle?id=4430164
http://www.investegate.co.uk/afren-plc-%28afr%29/rns/significant-new-seychelles-3d-seismic-programme/201212120700052973T/
http://www.investegate.co.uk/afren-plc--afr-/rns/2013-half-yearly-results/201308230700063334M/
http://www.investegate.co.uk/afren-plc--afr-/rns/ogo-drilling-and-resources-update/201311190700083404T/
http://www.investegate.co.uk/afren-plc--afr-/rns/trading-statement-and-operations-update/201401280700096280Y/
http://www.investegate.co.uk/afren-plc--afr-/rns/interim-management-statement/201405200700135209H/
http://www.investegate.co.uk/afren-plc--afr-/rns/interim-management-statement/201410300700116483V/
http://www.moneyam.com/action/news/showArticle?id=4942625
http://www.moneyam.com/action/news/showArticle?id=4943375

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/newsbysector/energy/11307505/Afren-shares-jump-on-Seplat-bid-approach.html

Look like seplat mean business


Seplat Petroleum Development Co. (SEPL), a Nigerian oil producer that raised about $500 million in a share sale this year, is looking to buy natural-gas assets to take advantage of higher prices in Africa’s biggest economy.

“Two things are driving the gas-commercialization business: the gas price and increasing demand,” Chairman Bryant Orjiako said in an interview yesterday in Cape Town. “Another thing that we’re doing is to find any available source of gas.”

Nigeria, the holder of Africa’s largest gas reserves, raised the price of gas to power plants to $2.50 per million standard cubic feet plus 80 cents for transport in August, from $1.50.

The country increased gas tariffs to help spur supplies to power plants in Nigeria, which generates less electricity than is needed by Africa’s biggest population of about 170 million. This causes regular blackouts that the government says are a bottleneck for growth, with a shortage of the fuel for stations being one reason why generation is below capacity.

The nation wants to almost triple natural-gas production capacity to 11 billion cubic feet a day by 2020 to help meet its electricity and industrial development needs, Oil Minister Diezani Alison-Madueke said in September. Nigeria loses at least $3 billion in revenue a year by burning off associated gas, which is pumped together with crude oil, according to the Petroleum Ministry. Flaring was taking place because the domestic fuel prices were so low.

Shell Assets
Seplat has contracts to supply power generators and is in discussions to add others, Orjiako said. The company sells its gas for about $3 per 1,000 cubic feet to electricity plants, Chief Executive Officer Austin Avuru said in April. The price for the fuel has risen from about 20 cents only a couple of years ago, he said.


“We are interested in every divestment in the onshore and shallow water,” he said. “Shell, having the largest footprint, obviously has the ability to put up all these assets so we’re looking at all of these.”

ttps://www.youtube.com/watch?v=O4DZ_mY_7G4

Another game of waiting for the SP to bottom out before jumping back in for the next tranche SP rise?

http://www.thisdaylive.com/articles/afren-to-complete-installations-on-okwok-oilfield-in-2015/197456/

just noted an entry on attached from 22/12...brief but interesting


http://www.iii.co.uk/articles/213429/start-bidding-war-afren

http://www.iii.co.uk/articles/213429/start-bidding-war-afren

Like this bit

he said. "Mind you at 51p this approach from SEPLAT is hardly likely to be the last indication of interest in the company and investors should expect this just to be the starters flag being lowered in the battle for the Afren portfolio at bargain basement prices."

Post by MRposhman on iii

Combination is just a fancy word for saying that they are looking at a merger. As Afren are bigger than Seplat they cannot "takeover" Afren in the usual sense, but can instigate a reverse takeover, but I think if they wanted to "combine" then they will do it in the least aggressive manner initially and that's through a merger. Whether they will need to get more aggressive I have no idea.

The fact that Afren are now under the takeover code rules shows that this is not just a farmout and any offer will be for either all of none of Afren.

I've re-looked at my figures and production levels for 2015 and I have used various oil scenarios but will provide the $65 oil scenario. I've valued the business on an EBITDA basis and have the below figures (I won't go into all the details).

Core valuation based on EBITDA = 94p
Less gain on hedging = (5p) - removed in case of long term lower oil prices
Value of Kurdistan upside = 29p (Valued at $0.5bn less than we paid for it)
Okwok / Aje full year impact = 10p
Net debt = (52p)
Value at $65 oil = 76p

The same basis at $80 oil is 114p and $100 oil is 163p.

I think its relatively conservative as it values all exploration acreage at nothing and does not show anything for additional upside at Ebok (as this is valued purely on production).

I would say then that the 75-76p region would be purely the starting point for any valuation (whether takeover or merger). I would expect them to be looking at far higher 100p plus due to the size of the exploration acreage. Bear in mind that the above figures including absolutely NOTHING for Ogo which was one of the largest oil discoveries in 2013 and clearly has value.

There is no real requirement for the Afren BOD's to recommend a takeover / merger unless it represents value to current holders and therefore IMO any price would need to be north of 100p. Sure the premium looks high based upon current SP, but you need to look at valuation of the assets, there is no need for any fire sale, make no mistake Afren are highly cash generative even at $60-65 oil and therefore any board decision must be compelling for current holders.

I'm sure we will find out more over the coming weeks, as we run up to the Seplat offer deadline as per the takeover code.

Hope everyone has a happy Christmas (even hel x!!), its nearly Christmas already down here in Melbourne so have a happy and Christmas and heres to a MUCH better 2015 for Afren holders.

IMO..... shorters will continue to 'graze' away at AFR until the company puts out a supporting RNS wrt management issues fix / end and expectations for any potential takeover offers.

Expecting more than one stalker in Q1 2015 for AFR, which will cause Investment Brokers to undertake accurate evaluation of situation and reaffirm mark to market £SP. Weak $Oil main key driver to encourage stalker bids.

DYOR

HAb

Brent still regularly nudging sub $60 pb and presumably all of the oilies' next set of results are going to be below expectations, so more downside to come, imo.

I know this is the result of USA shale....but are their exports (I think that they are exporting a little now) going to continue ? or is this just for a year or so and then massive crude imports again ?

A lot of US shale co's will be struggling with oil at the current level.
2517

which has been one of saudi's targets

Harry you could be right about the poo,which will effect values of the oilers.But as far as AFR is concerned, it should be remembered that they have a large hedge on their oil sales so some protection there.
Now the recent approach from slpat was for 51p and my understanding is that they have until the 19th january to meet the offer rules? So trading some 10% below the offer mentioned,whether they confirm or come up with some merger proposals only time will tell?
In the meantime whether to take a punt or not,it's worth remembering in the xmas/new year period shares tend to be weak. Interesting couple of weeks ahead for sure.

Unless SEPLAT come up with a mind boggling offer, which I think is unlikely, how can AFR board recommend any kind of t/o? My opinion is that this is just an exploratory approach which means that SEPLAT have to do a certain amount of DD by looking at the AFR books. The trouble is that if and when SEPLAT walk away, the AFR sp will take another hit, albeit very temporary.

Every time i buy these shares it goes down when i sell it goes up, thats 3 times in a row now, so its due for a raise now to 60p

my guess is that seplat just wants to have a good dig around in the books, and then put the screws on shahenshah to sell his shares cheaply ... in exchange for which, he'll be allowed to escape many years in a salubrious lagos jail

We may have an update on Ameena drilling soon.
.. and perhaps an update on ex directors activities, as this has been a few months now.

I lived in Nigeria, near Port Harcourt for a few years .. a very unpredictable place.
I can not guess yet what Seplat and South Atlantic and Shahenshah are up to ???

Hold tight for some excitement !!!

Drilling commences on the Ameena East Prospect

Afren and its Partner Oriental have spudded the Ameena East well located on OML 115, offshore Nigeria. The well is being drilled with the Shelf Adriatic I drilling rig. The Ameena East prospect will be targeting 65 mmbbls of gross unrisked resources in zones of prospectivity in the Biafra intervals that are productive north of the acreage, with secondary objectives in the Qua Iboe reservoirs equivalent to those at the Ebok and Okwok fields. The drilling campaign at Ameena East is expected to be completed in December, 2014.