rather than pick out individual stocks to trade, it can often be worthwhile to trade the indices themselves, especially in times of high volatility.

for those so inclined, i attach below charts for FTSE and FTSE 250, though one might equally be tempted to trade Dow or S&P, which is significantly broader in its coverage, or even NASDAQ

for ease of reading, i have attached 1 year and 3 month charts in each instance

I'm sure someone on the radio said that Congress breaks up tomorrow, ahead of the election, so I assume if it's not tomorrow then it won't be until after the election. Not sure when that it is though. Think the odds are they'll pass something. I can't imagine any flavour of party wanting to risk market turmoil in the run up to a presidental election.

In my opinion.

Strawbs.

Strawbs .... i generally agree with you, but not this time

1) There is absolutely no way that the decision on the bailout will be left until after 4th November, being election day.

2) I do not believe the bailout will be ratified early tomorrow, for both Congress and Senate will want to make life as unpleasant as possible, especially for the Bush administration ...... my guess is that it will be ratified very late on Friday night (EST)

3) For sure the bailout will be modified to some extent, but Bernanke never pretended that his proposal was either written in stone or not improvable.

3) I know I am very stupid in these matters, but it seems to me that if US Gov't (taxpayer!) buys up all the "questionable debt" at fire-sale prices, they will probably do very well out of it in the medium/long term ..... for sure there will still be a certain amount of default, but I suspect a damn sight less than if the banks were left with the stuff on their books, with inter-bank lending getting tougher and tougher and more expensive.

4) The bailout will most certainly NOT cure (m)any ills, but it will (imo) improve stability and, de facto and subsequently, confidence all round ...... It is this at the end of the day that will govern the depth and longevity of (any) recession.

I think we've disagreed a few times Cynic. ;-)

Any idea who's winning so far. LOL.

Strawbs.

Senate meeting at 10am (US) to discuss

Looks like markets are treading water waiting for the announcement. I was tempted to go long equities in the hope of a big bounce, but I figure everyone will be doing the same. I think I'll watch from the sidelines now until the dust settles. The door's very small if everyone runs for the exit at the same time....

In my opinion.

Strawbs.

Dow indicators are all over the place .... now showing +102 but were in small neg territory for a while after GE warning ....... was somewhat overexposed on Dow so have closed some of it at a modest but very acceptable profit

Agreed Strawb but CNBC have just had a congressman on who said it is a done deal and everybody should stop worrying about it. That's why there has just been a jump in prices.

ah; that explains plenty ...... but still oh so volatile ..... indicator now only +60

Jobless claim and durable good number just out, small pullback but probably temporarily irrelevent compared to senate action.

I would say durable goods and jobless claims are far more important, and show more about the real economy than problems contained in the banking system. If unemployment is rising and people are avoiding buying goods, it surely means things are getting worse for real people. The crisis is perhaps out of "Wall Street" and now onto "Main Street".

In my opinion.

Strawbs.

You know what I mean Strawbs - I'm simply taking about immediate share prices that's all!

I know. But it's worth noting that "main street", e.g. American taxpayers will be funding this huge bailout, not directly, but certainly indirectly through taxation, gdp etc. If the U.S. economy collapses, sustaining all that debt will be very very difficult. In fact, if the rest of the world goes the same way, will anyone have the money or the desire to finance it anyway?

In my opinion.

Strawbs.

and if iran gets atomic bomb and sells it to al qaeda or pakistan likewise and if this and if that and if the other .......

Tis a very strange market. Only Barc, RBS and HBOS up along with a few insurance cy's. The rest down, miners particularly and yet we are 80pts up.

Even cy's that usually follow the mkt like MPI and CSR are flat.

Probably assuming it's a done deal. Seems a little dangerous without actually knowing what's been passed though. Oh well. Good oppertunity for people to make and loose a fortune I guess. :-) Think I'll stay out of it. If you don't know which way to run, you're sometimes better off standing still.

In my opinion.

Strawbs

Might be worth having a very small stake in the proceedings, then whichever way it goes the risk element is manageable. Cautious is good, but you ain't gonna get rich if you never take the plunge!!!

I was reading a book on past market bear markets, just to cheer me up. The two worst bear markets were of course the 1930s crash and the early 70s bear market. Now I like everyone else have no idea how long this current bear market will last or how harsh it will be. My guess would be about 1973/4 level, well thats what I will plan for anyway.

See below the year and percentage fall for the two bear markets in the 30s and 70s, and below I have tried to work out the low point today and duration if either was replicated.

1929 = -8%
1930 = -23%
1931 = -42%
1932 = - 8%
1933 = +55%

1973 = -15%
1974 = -26%
1975 = +38%

If 1930s figures were used it would mean a low of between 2400 & 2669 in 2010 then a 55% recovery to 4136 in 2011.

If 1970s figures were used it would mean a low of 4088 in 2009 then a 38% recovery to 5641 in 2010.

That's very interesting Spitfire - thanks.

Hope Harrycat didn't get too drenched when he took the plunge!

Well I would think we will see a relief rally when this financial package is passed, hopefully tonight.

where have you guys been? ..... it was all effectively done and dusted by about 17:00 ..... the bits of paper may not have actually been signed off, but the fact that Dow still finished +200, albeit that at one point it was +300, surely tells you something