< "> edit this post http://www.investegate.co.uk/afren-plc-%28afr%29/rns/trading-statement-and-operations-update/201301210700069619
http://www.investegate.co.uk/afren-plc--afr-/rns/2012-full-year-results/201303250700107200A/

In an attempt to cut down the header page,i've transferred some of the older news to Page1 post No.3.

http://www.oil-price.net/index.php?lang=en
http://www.ft.com/home/uk

http://www.investegate.co.uk/Article.aspx?id=201111020700081674R
http://www.investegate.co.uk/Article.aspx?id=201111150700250723S
http://www.investegate.co.uk/Article.aspx?id=201112010705051251T
http://www.investegate.co.uk/Article.aspx?id=201201170700146472V
http://www.investegate.co.uk/Article.aspx?id=201201230701479690V
http://www.moneyam.com/action/news/showArticle?id=4323758
http://www.investegate.co.uk/Article.aspx?id=201204170700164488B
http://www.investegate.co.uk/Article.aspx?id=201205140700212304D
http://www.investegate.co.uk/Article.aspx?id=201205210700407032D
http://www.moneyam.com/action/news/showArticle?id=4430164
http://www.investegate.co.uk/afren-plc-%28afr%29/rns/significant-new-seychelles-3d-seismic-programme/201212120700052973T/
http://www.investegate.co.uk/afren-plc--afr-/rns/2013-half-yearly-results/201308230700063334M/
http://www.investegate.co.uk/afren-plc--afr-/rns/ogo-drilling-and-resources-update/201311190700083404T/
http://www.investegate.co.uk/afren-plc--afr-/rns/trading-statement-and-operations-update/201401280700096280Y/
http://www.investegate.co.uk/afren-plc--afr-/rns/interim-management-statement/201405200700135209H/
http://www.investegate.co.uk/afren-plc--afr-/rns/interim-management-statement/201410300700116483V/
http://www.moneyam.com/action/news/showArticle?id=4942625
http://www.moneyam.com/action/news/showArticle?id=4943375

After an annus horribilis for us long term holders, lets hope 2015 becomes an annus mirabilis(wonderful year}.
We seem to have had a bum deal.
Wishing you all a prosperous 2015.

From Oilbarrel.

By Amy McLellan

It will come as little surprise to company watchers to learn that London-listed Afren, which has had a torrid six months after its CEO, COO and other directors were found to have been in receipt of secret payments, is vulnerable to takeover.

Shares in the company have lost two-thirds of their value over the past six months as investors ditched stock in a company with such glaring governance issues.

Now the company, which has seen its shares rally over the past week, has confirmed it has received what it calls “a highly preliminary approach” from Seplat Petroleum Development Co, the Lagos-based oil company that raised £300 million in its April IPO, becoming the first Nigerian company to have its ordinary shares listed on both the London Stock Exchange and the Nigerian Stock Exchange.

Shares in Afren jumped 10.5 per cent to 50.82 pence in morning trading on the news before settling to close almost four per cent higher at 49.39 pence, while SEPLAT surged 23 per cent to close at 126.25 pence per share. On Christmas Eve

Certainly there would seem to be some sense in a tie-up: both companies are focused on Nigeria, where Afren has built a production base of 31,000 bpd and has further development work underway while Seplat has averaged 29,014 boepd over the first nine months of 2014. The Nigerian company is sitting on a pile of cash after its IPO and has made clear that it is on the look- out for new business opportunities.

Afren would add a material slug of production and reserves as well as adding geographic diversity, with projects elsewhere in Africa and the Middle East. A combination of the two companies would create a production powerhouse in Nigeria, with the scale to tackle bigger projects as Big Oil continues its retreat from the onshore and shallow waters.

The rout in the oil price – down 40 per cent since June – means share prices are feeling the pressure and momentum is building for a new wave of M&A activity in a hard pressed sector ripe for consolidation. Given the weakness in its share price after CEO Osman Shahenshah and COO Shahid Ullah were suspended in July and then sacked for gross misconduct in October, Afren was always going to be vulnerable to opportunistic bids.

And despite the aftershocks of the sackings, Afren’s portfolio includes quality assets, with a strong production base, a slate of developments, with the Okoro expansion project and the Aje and Okwok fields due onstream next year, as well as high impact exploration projects, such as the Ebok Deep prospect and the play-opening Ogo discovery. And that’s just in Nigeria.

Further afield, the FTSE 250 company recently announced an oil discovery on Block 1101 onshore Madagascar, has production and development projects in the Kurdistan Region of Iraq and is tee-ing up some exciting exploration wells in Cote d’Ivoire and Kenya next year.

Afren said that Seplat has until 19 January to make a firm offer under UK takeover rules. It may well be that Seplat finds it is not the only one to see the potential of a low ball bid for Afren.

TWITTER

http://www.cnbc.com/id/102302392

http://www.afren.com/investor_relations/


31.12.2014
Settlement of claims against former CEO and COO
Afren plc (“Afren” or the “Company”) announces that it has successfully secured, from its former CEO, Osman Shahenshah, and former COO, Shahid Ullah, a cash payment of US$17.1mn in relation to payments made to them that were not authorised by the Board, and as first announced by the Company on 31 July 2014.

interesting .... so have the cases etc against the other non-main-board directors now been dropped? .... if so, is that a case of no case to answer or one of "insufficient evidence" or similar?

More to the point, imo, this means that there is nothing to deter possible moves for a t/o merger with other companies which might have baulked if there was possible litigation in the system. One less stumbling block.

Afren will not want to be taken over.....not until crude has recovered and the share price way above 100p, I'm sure of that....

and shahenshah will not want to spend a good number of year in a lagos jail!

frankly, a $17.1m reimbursement is less than peanuts relative to the amount syphoned off, so it is obvious that there is much more than meets the eye

hxxp://www.petroleumafrica.com/sapetro-purchase-boosts-afren-share-price/
Nigeria’s South Atlantic Petroleum Company (Sapetro) acquired an estimated 13% of Afren’s the shares as talks swirled around the potential takeover of Afren by another indigenous firm, Seplat.
Due to the recent drop in oil prices, as well as some corporate misdemeanors that led to the dismissal of some of Afren’s executives, the company has seen its share price take a dive making it ripe target for a takeover. The purchase of shares by Sapetro gave Afren’s share price a boost and the talk of a takeover by Seplat boosted the price even further.
Sapetro is looking to grow its assets beyond its current holdings in OML 130 in Nigeria, the Seme field in Benin, and a massive concession in the Mozambique Channel. The company also has acreage in Central Africa Republic. The firm has engaged the services of PricewaterhouseCoopers (PWC) to shop for assets and advise on value adding business strategy. The Afren investment is one of the several results of that engagement.




If true that Sapetro has aquired a 13% stake in Afren then expect a RNS on Monday, things could get very interesting in the next month.

Oil price slide

Oil-price-tumbles-through-55-barrier-sparking-equity-selloff

telegraph - Oil-price-slide-claims-another-scalp

oil is currently barely holding $50 and is very likely to slide further

OPEC meeting late Feb ...LSE

The Saudis have already started to act about
a week ago when they started to push up the
price of Saudi blend to the Asian market. It
sells at about $3-5 less than Brent. They will
probably have an OPEC meeting late Feb
with any agreed cuts in Q2. They will be aiming for their 2015 budget price of $80-82
(Brent $83-85) for Saudi blend.

posted lse/3i
hxxp://www.petroleumafrica.com/sapetro-purchase-boosts-afren-share-price/
Nigeria’s South Atlantic Petroleum Company (Sapetro) acquired an estimated 13% of Afren’s the shares as talks swirled around the potential takeover of Afren by another indigenous firm, Seplat.
Due to the recent drop in oil prices, as well as some corporate misdemeanors that led to the dismissal of some of Afren’s executives, the company has seen its share price take a dive making it ripe target for a takeover. The purchase of shares by Sapetro gave Afren’s share price a boost and the talk of a takeover by Seplat boosted the price even further.
Sapetro is looking to grow its assets beyond its current holdings in OML 130 in Nigeria, the Seme field in Benin, and a massive concession in the Mozambique Channel. The company also has acreage in Central Africa Republic. The firm has engaged the services of PricewaterhouseCoopers (PWC) to shop for assets and advise on value adding business strategy. The Afren investment is one of the several results of that engagement.

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2015-01-04/maduro-travels-to-china-for-financing-opec-nations-for-oil-plan.html

From the Telegraph today:


Takeover target Afren drew attention on a day that saw plenty of action for oil shares.


The Africa-focused oil explorer surged in the run-up to Christmas on news that London-listed Nigerian rival Seplat, 11.375p lower at 128.625p, had made a preliminary bid approach. The predator has until January 19 to make a firm offer or withdraw under UK takeover rules, although on Tuesday there was speculation there may be developments well before then.


Shares in Afren surged as much as 1.7p, or 4pc, to a session high of 44.22p as rumours spread through dealing rooms that South Atlantic Petroleum (SAPetro) was eyeing a counterbid.


SAPetro, which was founded by former Nigerian defence minister General Theophilus Danjuma, has already shown an interest in Afren. The group acquired a 7.05pc shareholding in the explorer in the autumn, stakebuilding that at the time also spurred chatter among traders that it could be interested in bidding for Afren. Shares in the takeover target closed 0.73p cheaper at 41.79p.


Afren aside, oil stocks generally were in focus on another day of turmoil in crude markets. Early in the session, Brent tumbled below $52 a barrel for the first time in five and a half years, a drop that dragged energy shares lower.

extremely volatile today.....up a couple then down a couple

Oriel price target 40p.

HTTP://oilpro.com/post/9485/first-us-oil-company-files-bankruptcy-amid-oil-price-crash

http://wolfstreet.com/2015/01/05/the-real-question-about-fracking-after-oil-price-crash-when-will-people-stop-giving-these-companies-money/


Last sentence sums it up.

http://www.investmentu.com/article/detail/42568/invest-oil-2015-forecast#.VLGm83uONZh
To see chart go to website above.
Goldman Sachs predicting $85 for 2015.
Bloomberg survey $82.
Fuures$59


Chart of the Week: The Future of Oil

by Rachel Gearhart, Managing Editor Saturday, January 10, 2015 Natural Riches Natural Riches
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future-of-oil

This week’s chart looks at oil prices from December 2012 through the end of 2014. It also does something quite interesting. It shows predictions out to June 2016. To create the chart, we looked at forecasts from Goldman Sachs, analysts surveyed by Bloomberg and the futures market.

As you can see in the chart, analysts and Goldman Sachs forecast a strong rebound in oil prices.

Though no one predicts that oil will rebound to anywhere near its circa $110 a barrel price from pre-June 2014 drop, plenty of folks on Wall Street expect to see prices similar to those from September 2014. That’s good news for the sector.

The futures curve, though, is not as positive.

Remember, a futures contract is an agreement that allows a party to purchase oil at a predetermined price on a predetermined date in the future. The relatively slow price growth predicted by the futures market tells us that the folks actually buying crude oil or hedging its movements don’t see a significant move higher anytime soon.

Of course, after the week we just saw on the crude market, analysts may be anxious to revise their forecasts lower as the year progresses. In fact, earlier this week, Citigroup cut its average Brent forecast for 2015 from $80 a barrel to $63 a barrel. For 2016, it cut its forecast from $85 a barrel to $70 a barrel.

With so much movement in oil prices, it can be hard to make smart investment decisions. In a recent article, Dave Fessler said that the best way to hedge the volatility in oil prices is with a pipeline master limited partnership.

As the “tollbooth operators of the oil and natural gas transportation highways,” pipeline MLPs provide stability and had a strong showing at the end of 2014. Individual MLPs and funds that hold pipeline MLPs beat the S&P 500 every month in 2014. And with oil prices certain to stay volatile, they’ll likely do the same in 2015. This makes for an excellent investing opportunity as oil forecasts change.