cynic
- 20 Oct 2007 12:12
rather than pick out individual stocks to trade, it can often be worthwhile to trade the indices themselves, especially in times of high volatility.
for those so inclined, i attach below charts for FTSE and FTSE 250, though one might equally be tempted to trade Dow or S&P, which is significantly broader in its coverage, or even NASDAQ
for ease of reading, i have attached 1 year and 3 month charts in each instance
spitfire43
- 28 Sep 2008 11:12
- 2881 of 21973
Looks like there will be a positive announcement with rescue package before Asian markets open tonight, and with the BB. looking certain to be nationalized, with confirmation expected before the markets open in the morning, we should see a big bounce tomorrow.
Be ready for trading platforms to fail again, I will place limit orders tonight which was the only way I could trade on 19th September.
cynic
- 28 Sep 2008 15:19
- 2882 of 21973
if you trade the indices, you should be able to activate orders around 10 pm this evening.
at this time, my inclination is to open a long in FTSE which looks to be dragging somewhat behind Dow .... but be prepared to take your profits as tomorrow is likely to be frenetic
Strawbs
- 28 Sep 2008 20:35
- 2883 of 21973
CNBC: Lawkmakers May Vote Today on Bailout Bill
So will tomorrows headlines be "Markets Soar on Bailout Deal" or "Markets Collapse as Bailout Disappoints". You know they'll make up an explanation no matter what actually happens... :-)
Strawbs.
jkd
- 28 Sep 2008 22:35
- 2884 of 21973
do i believe intervention works?
well, no i dont.
but it seems to have done when it bailed out banks way back in whenever, and it seems to have worked then.
do i believe history repeats?
well yes i do.
this then leaves me in a quandary,
are we at blood running in the street time yet, or not?
i dont think we are.
so i think we have at least one more ' leg down' to go.
maybe two.
those that know know.
it seems to me that when jo knows and feels then thats what matters.
us jo's arent yet suffering enough... just yet.
thats what is currently being attempted to avoid and prevent.
those that know know we will be soon enough, unless some action is taken.
so will this intervention do the trick?
i dont know, but if pressed on it i would suggest another leg or two.
the pain is not yet great enough.
history in the experiencing.
regards
jkd
ps just my opinion.
cynic
- 29 Sep 2008 07:42
- 2885 of 21973
oh well .... i was wrong, but overall broke even
Strawbs
- 29 Sep 2008 08:07
- 2886 of 21973
Once something is known to the markets, then it's normally discounted by current price action. The only "unknown" would've been a failure to agree a deal, which in the current hysteria seemed unlikely. I suppose all those disappointed speculators will now switch the other way..... :-) Although I dare say B&B could also affect market sentiment.
Strawbs.
cynic
- 29 Sep 2008 08:19
- 2887 of 21973
you're right Strawbs about the anticipation and arrival syndrome, but even if the US bailout terms have been changed somewhat ....... my inclination is still to venture long Dow (as i can monitor it all day), and at least i can buy vback in lower than where i was closed out
spitfire43
- 29 Sep 2008 08:58
- 2888 of 21973
FTSE looks a little sick at present, I was tempted to leave a long order today expecting a bounce later, but might be best to leave alone until the dust has settled. And as I'm just leaving to play Golf, I really need to be here to monitor.
Just had a buy order triggered for BP, but will go on sidelines for now and must try not to overtrade.
I know where I would rather be today .But good luck if trading today,
Strawbs
- 29 Sep 2008 08:58
- 2889 of 21973
Be careful out there Cynic. The huge rise of a few weeks ago went from A to B without much support in between, it could reverse just as quickly.
Strawbs.
cynic
- 29 Sep 2008 09:08
- 2890 of 21973
thanks Strawbs .... as of now i have done nothing
dealerdear
- 29 Sep 2008 09:15
- 2891 of 21973
2 problems I see here.
1) If the news of the completed bail-out had come in one go amidst fanfares, then I believe the mkts would have responded very positively. The problem it has come thr' dribs and drabs.
2) I wouldn't think the mkts will like the fact that the money is not coming in one large amount but in tranches so they are probably worrying it will be too little too late.
IMO
Strawbs
- 29 Sep 2008 09:23
- 2892 of 21973
3) We've had wall to wall news all weekend with people saying things like, "if this bailout doesn't happen it'll be meltdown .... etc.". The average investor might well think, "if things are that bad, maybe I should get out now in case this bailout doesn't work".
In my opinion......doh. Stop that. :-)
Strawbs.
cynic
- 29 Sep 2008 09:35
- 2893 of 21973
my thoughts are that as usual, the negative reaction has been heavily overdone, and as a short term trade, long is surely a better bet than short
have actually taken out a modest Dow long at 10963
cynic
- 29 Sep 2008 10:00
- 2894 of 21973
for Mistress T in answer to her rude private suggestion to me! ...... you would know better than i, but perhaps thick is better still, but that is for you to advise!
Toya
- 29 Sep 2008 10:30
- 2895 of 21973
Both are probably correct Cynic, and preferably in combination - but that's just what I would advise!
So: what's it to be then? DO you think it's long now for the ftse??
cynic
- 29 Sep 2008 10:36
- 2896 of 21973
at this juncture it must surely move in tandem with Dow, but (and?) if you look at the 15 minute charts, Dow looks better poised to move up with a possible resistance at 11000 ...... in fact, as i write Dow has moved towards that point .... keep watching, whether you buy or not
Toya
- 29 Sep 2008 10:40
- 2897 of 21973
It's looking a bit more lively now - perking up I hope!
ptholden
- 29 Sep 2008 11:05
- 2898 of 21973
Nowt like a bit of 'perking' :)
cynic
- 29 Sep 2008 11:28
- 2899 of 21973
keep up the gently massage Mistress T!
Toya
- 29 Sep 2008 11:36
- 2900 of 21973
Hi Guys: I think I'm the one who needs the massage - why did I choose long? on the ftse I mean?? I had been doing so well recently and now it's more or less shrunk away to nothing again