I am sure most peeps will know this is my favourite airline - I fly them and I buy them.

Currently I hold a quarter unit as a longer term investment which is also useful for shareholder benefits.

I will be looking to substantially add at the right time and not afraid to trade them either intraday or more probably as a swing trade.


ains




Shadow of conflict looms large over British Airways as firm fights to recover

TRACEY BOLES - Scotland on Sunday

BRITISH Airways will warn that the prospect of war with Iraq casts a long shadow over its full-year this week when it posts third quarter figures in line with expectations.

Lord Marshall, the BA chairman, is expected to tell analysts that political uncertainty could push the airline, still struggling to recover from the effects of September 11, further into reverse.

"Iraq is a key driver for everything," said a source close to the airline.

BA has admitted privately to analysts that transatlantic bookings for this March are "appalling" as the uncertainty stirred up by the prospect of war exerts an influence. Earnings estimate downgrades are now highly likely.

However, analysts believe a loss for the full year is still not on the cards.

Pre-tax estimates for the full year currently stand at up to 140m. BAs performance, which represents a strong recovery from the 180m loss posted in the equivalent quarter after September 11, has been driven by a vigorous cost-cutting programme rather than by revenue, which is still flat.

It will announce tomorrow that it is on track to achieve cost savings of 450m by the end of March through a process of shedding jobs and loss-making routes under its future size and shape strategy.

By the end of next month 10,000 jobs will have gone under the programme. "BA has weathered the storm better than most by getting costs under control," said one analyst. "In Europe, only Iberia has done likewise."

Third quarter operating profits are expected to be around 30m to 40m, in line with analysts expectations, with pre-tax figures between a 10m loss and 5m profit. The consensus is break even.

The airline has impressed experts by taking the threat posed by low-cost carriers seriously.

Geopolitical and economic problems are affecting demand air travel, especially on long-haul routes. BAs premium services are still under pressure, recent traffic figures revealed.

A speedy Gulf war will lead to a relief rally for the airline sectors shares which are depressed at the moment. However, BA itself has warned that prolonged conflict could trigger a slump in aviation equivalent to that seen after September 11.

Chris Tarry, former aviation analyst at Commerzbank who now runs CTAIRA said: "I believe that the last quarter has been very tough on the revenue side and indeed they have indicated this themselves.

"Unfortunately the outlook is no better - even without a war. The reality of the economic situation in the UK was underlined with the rate cut.

"Add to that the structural downward shift in fare levels and then the uncertainty over war - it doesnt bode well.

"Furthermore, given the uncertainty caused by Iraq let alone an actual war, it is pretty clear that the transatlantic market will be dire in the summer."

BA has traditionally depended on transatlantic traffic for its revenue.

Shells chairman, Sir Philip Watts, also admitted last week that the oil giant was preparing for "uncertain times" ahead.

He said Shell had looked at the range of possibilities that could occur and had "a plan for every eventuality".

broker downgrade rumoured - target 87p - seen these before and great for traders :-))


ains

(EXTEL) STOCKWATCH - BA dips as CSFB cuts target to 87p, downgrades to
STOCKWATCH - BA dips as CSFB cuts target to 87p, downgrades to 'underperform'

LONDON (AFX) - Shares in British Airways PLC dropped in opening trades,
s
Credit Suisse First Boston slashed its price target and cut its rating, saying
cyclical and structural factors mean the shares are materially overvalued,
dealers said.
In an early research piece, CSFB chopped its target down to just 87 pence
from 130, and reduced its recommendation to 'underperform' from 'neutral'.
The broker based its new target on a terminal EV/IC figure of 0.8 and a
medium-term EBITDAR (earnings before income tax, depreciation, amortization and
rental of non-fleet assets) margin of 15 pct.
Saying BA shares are significantly overvalued, the broker questioned the
firm's ability to improve its EBITDAR. It warned that weak revenue trends within
the industry may well mean that the company fails to achieve an EBIT margin of
10 pct for any of the next three years, despite its 'Future Size and Shape'
restructuring programme.
It warns that BA will be pressured by non-cyclical factors, like slack
demand in Europe for premium class travel, the success of the budget airlines
business model, and the EU-US open skies agreement.
Further, BA will also continue to be pressured by cyclical problems like
ongoing weak demand for air travel on war fears, economic uncertainty, continued
high fuel prices and short-term pressure from North American airlines.
Consequently, the broker has just slightly reduced its earnings forecasts
for the year to March 2003, but it slashed its EBITDAR forecast for the
following year to 1.177 bln stg with EBIT now seen at 359 mln.
At 8.28 am BA shares were 1-1/4 pence lower at 111-1/2.
kgd/ak




For more information and to contact AFX: www.afxnews.com and
www.afxpress.com
*** end of story ***

There we go ..... good for trading and as I am looking to buy - good for me. Heard all this before and always interesting to see the same brokers churning out the same sort of targets .....



ains

what a very strange cove you are ainsoph. it's obvious from your evasions that you don't actually fly BA (or any airline) at all.

so that's a naughty little invention to bolster your recommendation of the share...

Dreamer .... I just won a fiver on what you just said :-))

To be frank - I came over here to get away from idiots like you and would guess it will not be long before you get a red card. Just had another fiver on 'you will not last until end of month' ..... don't let me down :-))

I do wonder if you can actually read ..... if you look above - you will see I want to buy not sell and therefore l am looking for a lower price - not higher .... duh

MUNICH (AFX) - British Airways PLC's loss-making German subsidiary Deutsche BA (DBA) said it is now unlikely budget airline easyJet PLC will exercise an option to buy it after wage talks with pilots collapsed.
DBA chief executive Martin Wyatt said the collapse of the negotiations has put DBA's existence under threat, and he is unsure how the business will continue.

He can not rule out that the business will have to be closed, Wyatt said.

All options are being examined, he added.

why

ainsoph is a bluffer but a funny one.his track record is dreadful.I wouldn't be surprised,if he hardly trades at all but does all this posting as a wind up.

Hmmmmmmmmmmmm ..... my track record is actually incredibly good and have been making a great living since I retired at 30 :-))

If you look at the BAY thread on the other side you will note the number of times I was able to trade successfully ......

ainsoph

I hope you are making lots of money.What about all the many losing trades,you've been caught out numerous times on Advfn ? You like going long,so why dont you trade the FTSE shares like N Rock,ABF,Unilever that are more stable,instead of B Airways,Telewest,BT that have collasped ???

maybe so, brian, but there was always the hope that ainsoph might turn over a new leaf on a new site! sadly not it seems.


what reason did ADVFN give for banning you ainsoph?

I trade shares that move around - that is my nature - I like life in the fast lane and don't want to sit watching a screen all day for a minute movement. Hence I hold between 40/50 whilst you peeps hold one


ains

This is a very risky one to trade at the moment, guys, should there be another terrorist attack on an airport watch it halve before you have time to remember how many you have, and should war start watch it drop 20% or so...

I am not trading at this time but waiting to trade - I hold just a quarter unit in order to keep the s/h discounts. Clearly the reason I am tracking is because of the likely 20/30% drop any minute ..... two peeps have just been arrested around the area :-)).


ains

why

i think he was banned for annoying other posters,u know wot he was up to.

kayak

i dont trade this share.

You seem to only trade insults at this time and not aware you have ever traded shares ..... looks like an another alias

Is this share going to fall big time when the war starts because I 'm in.

Yes it will fall

so why hold this mysterious quarter unit? why not sell and buy back lower?

mind you, i suppose you bought it at c300p, so you've really done yr money already

If you read past threads you will note I bought at sub a - made lots and held on to a quarter unit for the shareholder benefits etc ..... it's my way (and my money .... and still in profit)


ains


Market report: Thursday close
Michael Clark, Evening Standard 13 February 2003

OW-FLYING shares of British Airways have put investors on full alert amid fears the carrier will again lose its place among the top-flight companies that make up the FTSE 100.





The shares slipped 1 3/4p to 111p after some damning criticism by Credit Suisse First Boston, which shocked the City by slashing its 12-month target price from 135p to just 87p. If BA's share price comes remotely within the target range set by the broker, it is certain the group will be relegated from the top 100 in next month's quarterly reshuffle.


BA regained its place among the blue-chips last year following a steep decline in its share price and news of heavy losses. It regained its position at the first attempt in December but, with the price having declined from about 160p since the start of the year, things are again looking bleak. CSFB is worried that the industry's downturn is more secular than cyclical. Despite strong delivery on BA's Future Size and Shape strategy, there are concerns that structural problems may prevent margins recovering to their previous peak.

FRANKFURT, Feb 14 (Reuters) - Deutsche BA BAY.L has complained to German cartel authorities about Deutsche Lufthansa AG's LHAG.DE low prices on local flights and accused the national carrier of trying to push it out of the market.
Loss-making Deutsche BA, a unit of British Airways and acquisition candidate for low-cost carrier easyJet EZJ.L , said on Friday Lufthansa's latest pricing programme, which offers some roundtrip tickets within Germany for 88 euros ($95), was meant to pressure its rivals.

"Why are they offering such prices as a full service carrier?" said Deutsche BA Commercial Director Rudolph Hengefeld. "To push competition out of the German market."



LONDON (AFX) - Terminal two at London's Heathrow airport, focus of a major security alert since Tuesday, was partly evacuated as police investigated a suspect package, police said.
rom/mc/jlw