Ben Bailey PLC (Housebuilder).
The Mail today said to buy Bellway as they looked very cheap. BBC is cheaper still and is constantly overlooked by analysts.
I am lucky enough to have been in this one for years, and as 2005 started, it hit 500pps. After interims that said it was affected by the slowdown in the market, and the general malaise in the housing market, it has plummeted by 30%. But is this overdone?
The basics make it look very cheap. Trading on a P/e ratio of 3.508 as compared to Bellways ratio of 6.279 it has a similar dividend yield (3.198%). Having read the investors reports it appears the market did overreact, as hidden behind the headline of being affected by the market slowdown was an increasingly large landbank and a move away from their traditional stock of 3 and 4 bed detatched homes and into semis and townhouses, to increase the margin on the land they own.
Further to this, they are specialists in brownfield development, which the government is known to favour and operate solely in the north of England, where the housing market has been less affected than elsewhere.
January sees the year end results posted, and with all the above taken into account, as well as the predicted housing crash not happening, I see a return to the higher sp levels of late 2004 / early 2005. Add into this a 15pps dividend and I see a winner, both short and long term.
Thoughts anyone?
Alan

Thanks for that, Partridge.
Its a no-brainer for me, cos I got in so cheaply, and I feel confident of a much better set of results than the interims indicated.
Also, as you say, if the supposed M&A frenzy ever reaches this sector then the P/E ratio must make it a target.
The real problem with this company, as the chart suggests, is so little news flow that we are all left guessing between each set of financials and that is why it tends to swing so wildly at each full year / interim.
Good luck with KIE.
Alan

Is this the start of a sustained rise to a more suitable price, given the ratio?

Well, don't say I didn't flag it up.
Look back at previous years charts and you will find that this one rises rapidly most November / Decembers.
Perhaps the interims always err on the side of caution. I do hope so!!
Alan

Still in that upward trend, fellahs. And on very low volumes.
Alan

al, congrats. ( i thought the other one was the talk to yourself thread?)

Thanks for that, Boz.
It aint finished yet.
I think this one will be strong to early 2006 when the finals come out, and then drift through to summer.
It seems to do that every year!!
Alan

We've seen constant rises since this thread started, every single day.
Will it continue today?
I think a breather is in order, but then balfour beatty has been upgraded and this may knock on through the construction sector, though to be fair, they operate in very different areas of construction.
Drifting for a few days, then onwards. 400pps by late Nov.
Alan

For anyone interested I've dug out these few quotes from the interims and other places;

(02/08/05) Interim Report: "...and will produce volume growth in the current year"


(29/04/05) ANN: ch - "All of these factors give the board confidence that we can deliver another set of good results in 2005"


(01/03/05) Annual Report: ch - "Currently our forward reservations are 20.0% higher than the same period last year. This coupled with the quality and breadth of our product range, together with the strength of the improved land bank, give the board confidence in producing satisfactory earnings in future years"

Turned out nice again!!
This is a very illiquid share.
Very small demand creates large upward movement.
Of course the reverse is also true, but the housing market looks more secure with every report that comes out.
Good gains and still going strong.
Alan

Only 15000 traded and a rise of 11pps.
What more can I say.
May see a bit of profit taking now, but the share is so illiquid, we probably wont.
Remember I said 400pps by late November.
I may have to recalculate that, but 430pps by xmas is most certainly on the cards.
Check the charts. This one is predictable and we will see steady rising from now to end Jan/early feb.
Alan

Well its motoring at the moment Alan - nice call

alan, i think you've got a trespasser!

Another good start to the day. Can it keep it up?

Its motoring today Alan

Another 10% by new year, Baz. I hope!!!

This thread started at 365pps. Now 399pps. Thats almost 10% in under 2 weeks.
Evidently it can't go on at that rate, but it is following, uncannily accurately, the graph for the previous two years.
Last year it peaked at over 500pps. I don't think it will hit those heights again soon, but I do believe we have a steady rise in front of us between now and the end of Jan.
Alan

And theres the four quid I said by late November. It's early. Sorry I got the timing wrong, but I do think it will drop off again alittle before climbing some more!!!
Alan

Nice strong finish to the day, almost back to its intra day high after an earlier fall back.
Wheres it going tomorrow?
haven't got a clue, but it's generally upwards for the next couple of months, I hope.

Another good day for you Alan - was beginning to wish I had switched my KIE, but they too are nicely blue today. Sector nearly always has good run Nov-Mar and hopefully this time no exception.

Fingers crossed, Partridge.(For KIE as well)
Alan