I am sure most peeps will know this is my favourite airline - I fly them and I buy them.

Currently I hold a quarter unit as a longer term investment which is also useful for shareholder benefits.

I will be looking to substantially add at the right time and not afraid to trade them either intraday or more probably as a swing trade.


ains




Shadow of conflict looms large over British Airways as firm fights to recover

TRACEY BOLES - Scotland on Sunday

BRITISH Airways will warn that the prospect of war with Iraq casts a long shadow over its full-year this week when it posts third quarter figures in line with expectations.

Lord Marshall, the BA chairman, is expected to tell analysts that political uncertainty could push the airline, still struggling to recover from the effects of September 11, further into reverse.

"Iraq is a key driver for everything," said a source close to the airline.

BA has admitted privately to analysts that transatlantic bookings for this March are "appalling" as the uncertainty stirred up by the prospect of war exerts an influence. Earnings estimate downgrades are now highly likely.

However, analysts believe a loss for the full year is still not on the cards.

Pre-tax estimates for the full year currently stand at up to 140m. BAs performance, which represents a strong recovery from the 180m loss posted in the equivalent quarter after September 11, has been driven by a vigorous cost-cutting programme rather than by revenue, which is still flat.

It will announce tomorrow that it is on track to achieve cost savings of 450m by the end of March through a process of shedding jobs and loss-making routes under its future size and shape strategy.

By the end of next month 10,000 jobs will have gone under the programme. "BA has weathered the storm better than most by getting costs under control," said one analyst. "In Europe, only Iberia has done likewise."

Third quarter operating profits are expected to be around 30m to 40m, in line with analysts expectations, with pre-tax figures between a 10m loss and 5m profit. The consensus is break even.

The airline has impressed experts by taking the threat posed by low-cost carriers seriously.

Geopolitical and economic problems are affecting demand air travel, especially on long-haul routes. BAs premium services are still under pressure, recent traffic figures revealed.

A speedy Gulf war will lead to a relief rally for the airline sectors shares which are depressed at the moment. However, BA itself has warned that prolonged conflict could trigger a slump in aviation equivalent to that seen after September 11.

Chris Tarry, former aviation analyst at Commerzbank who now runs CTAIRA said: "I believe that the last quarter has been very tough on the revenue side and indeed they have indicated this themselves.

"Unfortunately the outlook is no better - even without a war. The reality of the economic situation in the UK was underlined with the rate cut.

"Add to that the structural downward shift in fare levels and then the uncertainty over war - it doesnt bode well.

"Furthermore, given the uncertainty caused by Iraq let alone an actual war, it is pretty clear that the transatlantic market will be dire in the summer."

BA has traditionally depended on transatlantic traffic for its revenue.

Shells chairman, Sir Philip Watts, also admitted last week that the oil giant was preparing for "uncertain times" ahead.

He said Shell had looked at the range of possibilities that could occur and had "a plan for every eventuality".

There we go ..... good for trading and as I am looking to buy - good for me. Heard all this before and always interesting to see the same brokers churning out the same sort of targets .....



ains

what a very strange cove you are ainsoph. it's obvious from your evasions that you don't actually fly BA (or any airline) at all.

so that's a naughty little invention to bolster your recommendation of the share...

Dreamer .... I just won a fiver on what you just said :-))

To be frank - I came over here to get away from idiots like you and would guess it will not be long before you get a red card. Just had another fiver on 'you will not last until end of month' ..... don't let me down :-))

I do wonder if you can actually read ..... if you look above - you will see I want to buy not sell and therefore l am looking for a lower price - not higher .... duh

MUNICH (AFX) - British Airways PLC's loss-making German subsidiary Deutsche BA (DBA) said it is now unlikely budget airline easyJet PLC will exercise an option to buy it after wage talks with pilots collapsed.
DBA chief executive Martin Wyatt said the collapse of the negotiations has put DBA's existence under threat, and he is unsure how the business will continue.

He can not rule out that the business will have to be closed, Wyatt said.

All options are being examined, he added.

why

ainsoph is a bluffer but a funny one.his track record is dreadful.I wouldn't be surprised,if he hardly trades at all but does all this posting as a wind up.

Hmmmmmmmmmmmm ..... my track record is actually incredibly good and have been making a great living since I retired at 30 :-))

If you look at the BAY thread on the other side you will note the number of times I was able to trade successfully ......

ainsoph

I hope you are making lots of money.What about all the many losing trades,you've been caught out numerous times on Advfn ? You like going long,so why dont you trade the FTSE shares like N Rock,ABF,Unilever that are more stable,instead of B Airways,Telewest,BT that have collasped ???

maybe so, brian, but there was always the hope that ainsoph might turn over a new leaf on a new site! sadly not it seems.


what reason did ADVFN give for banning you ainsoph?

I trade shares that move around - that is my nature - I like life in the fast lane and don't want to sit watching a screen all day for a minute movement. Hence I hold between 40/50 whilst you peeps hold one


ains

This is a very risky one to trade at the moment, guys, should there be another terrorist attack on an airport watch it halve before you have time to remember how many you have, and should war start watch it drop 20% or so...

I am not trading at this time but waiting to trade - I hold just a quarter unit in order to keep the s/h discounts. Clearly the reason I am tracking is because of the likely 20/30% drop any minute ..... two peeps have just been arrested around the area :-)).


ains

why

i think he was banned for annoying other posters,u know wot he was up to.

kayak

i dont trade this share.

You seem to only trade insults at this time and not aware you have ever traded shares ..... looks like an another alias

Is this share going to fall big time when the war starts because I 'm in.

Yes it will fall

so why hold this mysterious quarter unit? why not sell and buy back lower?

mind you, i suppose you bought it at c300p, so you've really done yr money already

If you read past threads you will note I bought at sub a - made lots and held on to a quarter unit for the shareholder benefits etc ..... it's my way (and my money .... and still in profit)


ains


Market report: Thursday close
Michael Clark, Evening Standard 13 February 2003

OW-FLYING shares of British Airways have put investors on full alert amid fears the carrier will again lose its place among the top-flight companies that make up the FTSE 100.





The shares slipped 1 3/4p to 111p after some damning criticism by Credit Suisse First Boston, which shocked the City by slashing its 12-month target price from 135p to just 87p. If BA's share price comes remotely within the target range set by the broker, it is certain the group will be relegated from the top 100 in next month's quarterly reshuffle.


BA regained its place among the blue-chips last year following a steep decline in its share price and news of heavy losses. It regained its position at the first attempt in December but, with the price having declined from about 160p since the start of the year, things are again looking bleak. CSFB is worried that the industry's downturn is more secular than cyclical. Despite strong delivery on BA's Future Size and Shape strategy, there are concerns that structural problems may prevent margins recovering to their previous peak.

FRANKFURT, Feb 14 (Reuters) - Deutsche BA BAY.L has complained to German cartel authorities about Deutsche Lufthansa AG's LHAG.DE low prices on local flights and accused the national carrier of trying to push it out of the market.
Loss-making Deutsche BA, a unit of British Airways and acquisition candidate for low-cost carrier easyJet EZJ.L , said on Friday Lufthansa's latest pricing programme, which offers some roundtrip tickets within Germany for 88 euros ($95), was meant to pressure its rivals.

"Why are they offering such prices as a full service carrier?" said Deutsche BA Commercial Director Rudolph Hengefeld. "To push competition out of the German market."



LONDON (AFX) - Terminal two at London's Heathrow airport, focus of a major security alert since Tuesday, was partly evacuated as police investigated a suspect package, police said.
rom/mc/jlw

Staying with my minimum 1/4 unit at this time but have accumulated the cash for taking this to 2 units in due course

ains



MAJOR US airlines raised airfares $10 (6.20) each way effective immediately, in an attempt to counter steep fuel price increases that threaten an already struggling industry.

Continental Airlines became the first major US airline to raise fares to cover rising fuel costs. American Airlines, quickly matched the increase.

Fuel is one of the highest and least predictable costs facing airlines. In the past, a number of airlines have added what they called temporary fuel surcharges.

War now looks certain and my position remains one of tracking for a buy



S Times extract


February 16, 2003

War threatens to ground business
Dominic O'Connell and David Smith



BRITISH AIRWAYS and Virgin Atlantic are drawing up plans to ground part of their fleets in the event of war with Iraq. Airlines, tour operators and hoteliers are expected to be the British businesses hardest hit by the looming conflict in the Middle East.
BA, BMI British Midland and Virgin suffered severe disruption at their Heathrow base last week when armed troops encircled the airport, and terminals were closed after the discovery of suspicious objects.

Rod Eddington, BAs chief executive, said that in the event of a prolonged conflict, the airline would not hesitate to cut capacity. We will need to move quickly, just as quickly as we did after September 11, he said.

War would hit traffic on BAs all-important transatlantic routes, and on its extensive network of flights to the Gulf. Eddington said it was too early to say whether last weeks airport terror scares had harmed bookings. What would really be a problem would be if other countries started putting out advice to their citizens against travelling to the UK as a result, he said.

Eddington rubbished suggestions BA would be put out of business by war with Iraq. We have 1.8 billion in cash, and 2 billion of other assets from which we could raise money. We are in good shape, he said.