hilary
- 31 Dec 2003 13:00
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Forex rebates on every trade - win or lose!
BrianTrayda
- 05 Jan 2004 23:49
- 33 of 11056
Thing about the low $ is that it makes it easier for the USA to export. That means more growth in the US which is the economic engine of the planet. Feeds back on itself doesn't it. And then the oil price works the same way. This all smacks of the G8 (or what ever they are now) agreeing on the week dollar until the world economy is back on track. Forex is on my list for this year and the safest route at the moment (for trend) is an increasing drop in the value of the dollar and the counter-balance of increasing gold price (in dollars ain't it).
Nice thread Hil - didn't know you had the HTML in your skill box as well as "those legs" ;-)
Boyse
- 06 Jan 2004 07:49
- 34 of 11056
BOJ SUSPECTED TO HAVE INTERVENED IN FOREX TRADING - JIJI
hilary
- 06 Jan 2004 10:50
- 35 of 11056
Paul,
You can use Sharescope to examine a currency and overlay a share or index. Personally, I can't see the merits of pairs trading an index -v- a currency, but wdik?
Treble,
Sorry to hear about your losses. The bulk of the price action has been away from the EUR/GBP recently which looks to be consolidating. There are still some nice trends to latch onto with the other currencies though. Personally, I wouldn't trade against the trend but, again, wdik?
BT,
Legs and html .... what more could you want in a girl?
To follow on from US exports being helped by the weak dollar, the reverse is true of the Yen. The low Japanese interest rates are stimulating domestic growth on one side of the coin, but unless the Japanese exporters are hedging on the FX markets, weaker exports will stifle profits which could in turn adversely affect the NIK. There has been a theory recently that the Bush administration has been leaning on the BoJ to hold off from buying the Dollar until the New Year to enable US exporters to report earnings growth, thereby boosting the Dow ahead of Presidential elections.
Boyse
- 06 Jan 2004 10:52
- 36 of 11056
for her to phone ?
david 2000
- 06 Jan 2004 14:17
- 37 of 11056
Options Expire in the next hour on Euro$ according to Bloom. Battle going on to get it over 1.28... could be volitile, as vol picking up...
david 2000
- 06 Jan 2004 14:19
- 38 of 11056
Trying again......
Sue 42
- 06 Jan 2004 15:36
- 39 of 11056
Hi - Does anyone use CMC for /$ spot?
If so I need some help.
I am confused by the order screen.
If I want to say buy $ - do I enter sell say 1,000?
Sorry if this is too low brow! It's got me baffled.
richesboy
- 06 Jan 2004 16:01
- 40 of 11056
I have used CMC for /$ spot. If you think the $ is going to increase in value then you sell /$ for however much pounds per pip. 100 pips per Cent. One thing to bear in mind is volatility which can move this currency pair 100pips plus every day in both directions!. So if you use stops you need to give them a wide berth! Be careful and good luck!!
Sue 42
- 06 Jan 2004 16:14
- 41 of 11056
richesboy - thanks - I tried - but my account is not authorised (a CFD a/c) I'll have to ring them.
richesboy
- 06 Jan 2004 17:10
- 42 of 11056
I guess the CFD a/c must be set up somewhat differently to SB a/c which I have!
Maggot
- 06 Jan 2004 18:49
- 43 of 11056
Sue. The order screens always have the buy/sell relating to the first currency quoted. But it can be confusing - for instance IG Index have Euro/Sterling to bet - ie 0.7000, but their chart shows /Euro - ie 1.42. It's to do with the fact that the and Irish Punt are traditionally quoted first worldwide, no matter what thay are being quoted against (I think that's the right way round). No doubt someone will correct me if I'm wrong.
Boyse
- 07 Jan 2004 07:20
- 44 of 11056
SINGAPORE (AFX-ASIA) - The US dollar was rangebound against the yen and
weaker against the euro, which stayed above the 1.27 level after hitting fresh
highs, dealers said.
BNP Paribas Peregrine Securities currency analyst Thio Chin Loo said the
weakness trend for the dollar remains intact but the greenback is finding some
temporary support near the 106 yen level.
Boyse
- 07 Jan 2004 07:21
- 45 of 11056
Singapore 3.00 pm Tokyo 12.20 pm
Dollar
yen 106.23 down from 106.32
sfr 1.2334 up from 1.2330
Euro
usd 1.2724 up from 1.2706
stg 0.6984 down from 0.6988
yen 135.11 up from 135.09
sfr 1.5691 up from 1.5667
Sterling
usd 1.8211 up from 1.8182
yen 193.36 up from 193.31
sfr 2.2456 up from 2.2418
Australian dollar
usd 0.7685 up from 0.7671
stg 0.4217 down from 0.4219
yen 81.590 up from 81.558
hilary
- 07 Jan 2004 07:31
- 46 of 11056
DAILY MARKET COMMENTARY
6 January 2004
Tuesday
North American Comment at 1500 GMT
_____________________________________________________________________
GCI Foreign Exchange Research: http://www.gcitrading.com/fxnews/
FX Research Desk: fxnews@gcitrading.com
_____________________________________________________________________
Fundamental Outlook at 1500 GMT (EDT + 0500)
The euro added insult to the dollars injuries today as traders drove the single currency to the US$ 1.2815 level before the pair consolidated some gains around the $1.2770 level. Stops were reached above the $1.2750 level and traders bought euros on dips. There is increasing speculation the ECB is ready to conduct euro-selling intervention as the single currency inches closer to psychologically-important 130.00 figure. Belgian finance minister Reynders today said the euros current level is relatively reasonable while the French budget ministry said brutal FX moves are bad for everyone. There continues to be increasing verbal intervention across the eurozone about the euros strong moves. Data released in the eurozone today saw an improvement in Germanys December services PMI index while France and Italy both saw a m/m decline in their service PMI indices. All three countries, however, had readings above the boom-or-bust 50.0 level, an indication of sectoral expansion. Overall, EMU-12 services PMI fell to 56.6 in December from 57.5 in November. Also, final Q3 French GDP was confirmed at +0.4% q/q. One reason for the euros gains today was a report that U.S. factory orders fell 1.4% in November. Traders are eagerly awaiting holiday spending data from the U.S. to see if the U.S. consumers continued to be the lynchpins of the U.S. economy. Atlanta Fed President Guynn spoke yesterday and said it will be appropriate to shift monetary policy back to a longer-term setting at some point but added interest rates are appropriate for now. Euro bids are cited around the $1.2700 figure with additional demand around the $1.2650 level.
The yen gained some additional ground vis-vis the U.S. dollar today as the greenback tested bids around the 106.05 level and was unable to move above the 106.45 level. Dealers again reported demand from BoJ agent banks and this was cited as the reason why the pair spike from the 106.10 level to the 106.40 level during early Australasian dealing. It is estimated that up to US$ 3 billion was spent by the Japanese to temporarily prop up the dollar today. There was renewed jawboning from Japanese officials overnight with finance minister Tanigaki pledging to counter rapid, speculative forex moves. His comments were seconded by verbal intervention from MoFs Mizoguchi. Dealers cited talk that a large Asian participant bought US$ 1 billion in 100.00 three-month dollar puts with a one-month knockout at 105.00. It was announced that PM Koizumi will meet with Japanese and foreign nationals on 14 January to discuss economic issues. Japan Business Federation head Okuda said an exchange rate of 105.00 would be critical for Japanese exporters. The Nikkei 225 stock index lost ground today, falling for the first time in four trading sessions. Dealers cite stops around the 105.80 level with option barriers cited around the 105.50 and 107.00 levels. The euro made major moves vis-vis the yen today as the single currency tested offers around the 136.05 level. Euro bids are cited around the 135.00 and 134.50 levels.
Technical Outlook at 1330 GMT (EDT + 0500)
(Bid Price) (Todays Intraday Range) (Previous High, Low, Close)
EUR/ USD 1.2765 1.2813, 1.2667 1.2697, 1.2584, 1.2675
USD/ JPY 106.14 106.44, 106.05 107.38, 106.00, 106.20
GBP/ USD 1.8243 1.8288, 1.8048 1.8105, 1.7971, 1.8068
USD/ CHF 1.2282 1.2345, 1.2241 1.2395, 1.2282, 1.2319
AUD/ USD 0.7704 0.7729, 0.7657 0.7693, 0.7636, 0.7679
USD/CAD 1.2837 1.2869, 1.2764 1.2893, 1.2773, 1.2818
NZD/ USD 0.6729 0.6748, 0.6681 0.6733, 0.6587, 0.6706
EUR/ JPY 135.55 136.05, 134.49 135.75, 134.30, 134.61
EUR/ GBP 0.6997 0.7024, 0.6987 0.7063, 0.7002, 0.7017
EUR/ CHF 1.5675 1.5706, 1.5613 1.5644, 1.5609, 1.5633
GBP/ JPY 193.71 194.10, 191.62 192.72, 190.98, 191.85
CHF/ JPY 86.46 86.73, 86.06 87.06, 85.87, 86.18
Support Resistance Support Resistance
EUR/ USD USD/ JPY
L1. 1.2400 1.2660 106.75 110.60
L2. 1.2325 1.2730 106.00 111.20
L3. 1.2225 1.2790 105.00 112.00
GBP/ USD USD/ CHF
L1. 1.7400 1.7775 1.2350 1.3200
L2. 1.7330 1.7825 1.2270 1.3300
L3. 1.7250 1.7900 1.2200 1.3400
AUD/ USD USD/ CAD
L1. 0.7000 0.7580 1.2900 1.3500
L2. 0.6960 0.7650 1.2830 1.3575
L3. 0.6910 0.7725 1.2770 1.3660
NZD/ USD EUR/ JPY
L1. 0.6350 0.6580 130.40 135.75
L2. 0.6300 0.6620 129.90 136.50
L3. 0.6250 0.6670 129.25 137.30
EUR/ GBP EUR/ CHF
L1. 0.6800 0.7170 1.5450 1.5750
L2. 0.6750 0.7250 1.5410 1.5800
L3. 0.6700 0.7310 1.5370 1.5860
GBP/ JPY CHF/ JPY
L1. 185.50 192.30 78.90 87.00
L2. 185.00 193.00 78.30 87.60
L3. 184.00 194.00 77.25 88.25
hilary
- 07 Jan 2004 08:43
- 47 of 11056
Looks like the Dollar bears closing this am.
2Abbey
- 07 Jan 2004 10:46
- 48 of 11056
Hi there!
May seem a silly question but does nuybody actively deal FX? What brokers do you use? Margin requirements? Spreads? etc.
I have an Etrade CFD account, does anybody deal FX with Etrade?
Just saw Bloomberg, Euro going to 1.35-45, big swings likely this year, seems a good time to fill yer boots!!!!
Grateful for any comments, stories etc.
Stephen
Sue 42
- 07 Jan 2004 11:40
- 49 of 11056
i seem to have a catch 22 with my CMC a/c. I can't deal in Fx til I have an account enabled, & I can't enable my a/c till I can demonstrate experience!!!
I can open a s/b a/c though!
Which s/b accounts does anyone use for Fx?
zarif
- 07 Jan 2004 15:15
- 50 of 11056
Sue42: I use igindex atm. I think cityindex and capitalspreads do fx aswell.
rgds
zarif
hilary
- 07 Jan 2004 16:41
- 51 of 11056
DAILY MARKET COMMENTARY
7 January 2004
Wednesday
North American Comment at 1500 GMT
_____________________________________________________________________
GCI Foreign Exchange Research: http://www.gcitrading.com/fxnews/
FX Research Desk: fxnews@gcitrading.com
_____________________________________________________________________
Fundamental Outlook at 1500 GMT (EDT + 0500)
The euro lost ground vis-vis the U.S. dollar today as the single currency tested bids around the US$ 1.2645 level during European dealing but reclaimed the $1.2700 figure during early North American dealing. The single currency was dented by news that EUs Solbes will urge legal action against EMU-12 countries that decided to effectively suspend the EUs Growth and Stability Pact in November. This decision to suspend was largely enacted to give Germany and France some breathing room fiscally over the next couple of fiscal years but actually contravened the underpinnings that made the euro a reality in the first place. To most traders, this is seen as a members-only spat that should not decrease demand for euros, particularly if Germany and France are able to maintain elevated fiscal spending levels. There was some verbal intervention from German officials overnight with Economy Minister Clement suggesting the export sector can deal with the euro at current levels while ECBs Welteke said German firms can cope with the current exchange rate. Welteke also said euros rise reflected market moves and that central banks cannot influence the exchange rate. Data released in the eurozone today saw the ECs economic sentiment index decline to 95.6 in December while the business climate indicator also fell last month. Also, Frances December consumer sentiment was unchanged at -30 while Italys December service sector confidence rose to +24. Traders await word from Fed Governor Kohn at 0100 GMT tonight. Interestingly, Bank of China and Construction Bank of China addressed rumours that Chinese financial institutions are dumping U.S. dollars and U.S. Treasuries as they readjust their capital structures. Euro stops are cited below the $1.2650 level with additional bids cited around the $1.2615 level. Euro offers are seen around the $1.2700 figure with additional selling pressure around the $1.2740/ 50 level. Option traders cite talk of a $1.2600 option barrier that rolls off today.
The yen advanced vis-vis the U.S. dollar today as the greenback traded below the 106.00 figure for the first time since September 2000. Dealers were unable to lift the pair above offers around the 106.45 level overnight but some strong bids emerged around the 105.90 level during North American dealing. Market chatter that Japanese investors were heavy buyers in a EUR 9.0 billion 10-year German Bund auction overnight kept a floor on the dollar, led by gains in the euro/ yen cross. More details about options positions emerged today as it was reported there is a 105.80/ 109.80 DNT that matures on 16 January with the bottom leg cited as an option barrier. Also, the 105.00 figure is cited as the downside leg of a 105.00/ 120.00 DNT structure that rolls off on 3 March. Collectively, these lower options legs should support the dollar. Japanese sources are claiming that Japanese monetary authorities have already spent some 3 trillion in yen-selling interventions this week, perhaps an indication of newfound vigilance in 2004. The Nikkei 225 stock index finished 0.52% lower today with investors fretting about a stronger yen. Dollar offers are cited around the 106.50 level. The euro sank fast vis-vis the yen during Australasian dealing, finding itself offered below the 134.50 level before being rejuvenated by the German Bund auction that saw it rise back above the 134.75 level. Euro bids are cited around the 134.25 level with offers seen around the 135.50 level.
The British pound spiked to the US$ 1.8260 level during Australasian dealing but quickly came off and tested bids around the $1.8120 level during European dealing. Stops were triggered below the $1.8180 level during the move downward. Cable has now appreciated some 10% since November and is in desperate need of a correction downward. Technically, the $1.7635 level will be an important level of technical support when the pound finally decides to come back to Earth. Ahead of that level, however, some demand for cable is seen around the $1.7865 level. Bank of Englands Monetary Policy Committee started its two-day policy deliberations today and is not expected to change policy but the pounds lofty level will clearly invigorate the monetary doves on the Board. Cable bids are cited around the $1.8120 level. The euro receded vis-vis the British pound today as the single currency tested bids around the 0.6965 level. Euro bid are cited around the 0.6950/ 35 levels.
CHF
The Swiss franc lost ground vis-vis the U.S. dollar today as the greenback tested offers around the CHF 1.2415 level during European dealing. Stops were triggered above the CHF 1.2360 level during the greenbacks ascent today. Data released in Switzerland today saw December CPI unchanged m/m and up +0.6% y/y. There is a concern that the rising Swiss franc could snuff out the Swiss economic recovery but this is probably not the case as long as the euro holds up in the cross vis-vis the franc. SNB added one-week liquidity at 0.11% today, the same rate it has used since 2 April 2003. The euro failed to advance past the CHF 1.5720 level today but was supported around the CHF 1.5665 level.
Technical Outlook at 1330 GMT (EDT + 0500)
(Bid Price) (Todays Intraday Range) (Previous High, Low, Close)
EUR/ USD 1.2691 1.2746, 1.2647 1.2813, 1.2667, 1.2727
USD/ JPY 106.15 106.44, 106.13 106.44, 106.05, 106.20
GBP/ USD 1.8194 1.8262, 1.8119 1.8288, 1.8048, 1.8215
USD/ CHF 1.2356 1.2416, 1.2303 1.2345, 1.2241, 1.2317
AUD/ USD 0.7698 0.7708, 0.7651 0.7729, 0.7657, 0.7697
USD/CAD 1.2878 1.2929, 1.2852 1.2869, 1.2764, 1.2859
NZD/ USD 0.6728 0.6732, 0.6676 0.6748, 0.6681, 0.6716
EUR/ JPY 134.75 135.36, 134.27 136.05, 134.49, 135.14
EUR/ GBP 0.6975 0.6999, 0.6966 0.7024, 0.6979, 0.6988
EUR/ CHF 1.5685 1.5718, 1.5663 1.5708, 1.5613, 1.5676
GBP/ JPY 193.15 193.99, 192.39 194.10, 191.62, 193.43
CHF/ JPY 85.91 86.35, 85.46 86.73, 86.06, 86.22
Support Resistance Support Resistance
EUR/ USD USD/ JPY
L1. 1.2400 1.2660 106.75 110.60
L2. 1.2325 1.2730 106.00 111.20
L3. 1.2225 1.2790 105.00 112.00
GBP/ USD USD/ CHF
L1. 1.7400 1.7775 1.2350 1.3200
L2. 1.7330 1.7825 1.2270 1.3300
L3. 1.7250 1.7900 1.2200 1.3400
AUD/ USD USD/ CAD
L1. 0.7000 0.7580 1.2900 1.3500
L2. 0.6960 0.7650 1.2830 1.3575
L3. 0.6910 0.7725 1.2770 1.3660
NZD/ USD EUR/ JPY
L1. 0.6350 0.6580 130.40 135.75
L2. 0.6300 0.6620 129.90 136.50
L3. 0.6250 0.6670 129.25 137.30
EUR/ GBP EUR/ CHF
L1. 0.6800 0.7170 1.5450 1.5750
L2. 0.6750 0.7250 1.5410 1.5800
L3. 0.6700 0.7310 1.5370 1.5860
GBP/ JPY CHF/ JPY
L1. 185.50 192.30 78.90 87.00
L2. 185.00 193.00 78.30 87.60
L3. 184.00 194.00 77.25 88.25
Maggot
- 07 Jan 2004 19:14
- 52 of 11056
Thanks for your great input, Hilary.
Have come unstuck on Euro/GBP longs after adding several times while it dropped. I needed only a 30-point rise to 7050 and I would have taken a good profit, but it never got there. Have closed for a fair loss and still have one open, which I will close when (if) it rebounds from 6950 as Saxobank have suggested it should. Must then be patient to get some back, but not for a few days, I think, when a trend has been established. Zarif oput me on to Saxobank - they have suggested trading strategies (which I checked too late) and it's free with their simulated trading station.
Sue - I deal s/b with cmc and IG Index.
Zarif, hope you have closed your Euro/$ long for a massive profit.