This sums up much of my thinking - I hold a few and swing trade a few and even trade intraday sometimes ......

I think there is a lot of slack that management can cut out of the costs and would also anticipate sector consolidation ..... good value currently and have been holding their own in a falling market. Lot of US interest.

ains


Edited by Dominic White
(Filed: 08/02/2003)


Texting makes MmO2 sexy but it's also risky

More and more Britons are discovering the joys of textual intercourse. In the month of December, we fired off more than 50m mobile messages a day, and next Friday (that's Valentine's Day, folks, in case you'd forgotten) we'll send considerably more than that.



It emerged this week that the chief beneficiary of this craze is MmO2 . BT's former mobile phone division revealed that it gets a higher proportion of revenues from texting than any of the other three operators.

Revenue from messaging grew at its fastest rate ever in the last quarter, up 19pc, and data services as a proportion of MmO2 's revenue rose to 17.7pc from 15.6pc.

More good news was the rise in MmO2 's average revenues per customer. ARPUs, as nerdy analysts like to dub them, grew by 5pc to 243 in the UK and by 9pc in Germany to 212.

MmO2 now has 19.1m subscribers and in Britain it may be the smallest player, with 11.9m users, but it is growing faster than its rivals - testament to the success of its rebranding from BT Cellnet.

Only 114,000 of its 503,000 new UK subscribers were higher-spending contract customers, but MmO2 claims its pre-pay customers have started spending more than before.

Customer growth in Germany, which continues to be dominated by T-Mobile and Vodafone, is less impressive and the MmO2 share price ascribes little or no value to this part of the business.

That seems unfair, given the fact that the group has attracted higher-spending customers and has made a decent fist of turning the operation around. An eventual sale or merger is almost as inevitable as a disposal of the Dutch unit, which is losing customers.

MmO2 's larger rival Vodafone is trading on a free cashflow yield of 6pc, while at 49p this week, MmO2 's equivalent valuation remains negative. It might not have Vodafone's scale or profitability but there is room for upside. A risky buy.

It has improved from morning levels. Can you provide the L2 data for VOD also?

Buy orders Sell orders
Num(%) Num Vol(%) Vol VWAP Vol Vol(%) Num Num(%)
1% (46.05%) 35 (40.67%) 6,433,084 121.80 - 122.84 9,386,325 (59.33%) 41 (53.95%)
5% (46.43%) 52 (37.79%) 10,380,584 121.37 - 123.42 17,086,208 (62.21%) 60 (53.57%)
10% (45.99%) 86 (35.85%) 12,975,233 120.75 - 124.23 23,222,700 (64.15%) 101 (54.01%)
15% (44.87%) 118 (37.31%) 16,893,252 119.34 - 125.53 28,385,724 (62.69%) 145 (55.13%)
50% (52.35%) 189 (40.00%) 19,919,048 117.61 - 126.15 29,879,488 (60.00%) 172 (47.65%)
100% (51.39%) 203 (40.12%) 20,172,248 117.31 - 126.38 30,104,672 (59.88%) 192 (48.61%)
all (50.50%) 203 (40.09%) 20,172,248 117.31 - 126.57 30,140,868 (59.91%) 199 (49.50%

Pls provide updated L2 for VOD & OOM. Missed out by not placing orders earlier.

Buy orders Sell orders
Num(%) Num Vol(%) Vol VWAP Vol Vol(%) Num Num(%)
1% (48.39%) 15 (34.76%) 1,224,275 55.04 - 55.74 2,297,709 (65.24%) 16 (51.61%)
5% (45.24%) 19 (33.03%) 1,667,390 54.89 - 55.98 3,380,144 (66.97%) 23 (54.76%)
10% (50.00%) 33 (46.12%) 3,247,322 54.13 - 56.10 3,794,174 (53.88%) 33 (50.00%)
15% (51.28%) 40 (48.03%) 3,540,822 53.83 - 56.14 3,830,678 (51.97%) 38 (48.72%)
50% (50.00%) 41 (42.90%) 3,545,722 53.82 - 57.33 4,719,837 (57.10%) 41 (50.00%)
100% (50.57%) 44 (42.77%) 3,565,842 53.72 - 57.41 4,770,529 (57.23%) 43 (49.43%)
all (49.44%) 44 (42.72%) 3,565,842 53.72 - 57.53 4,781,576 (57.28%) 45 (50.56%

Why is the stock not falling further if the L2 is looking this weak should be <55?

markets are up ..... OOM looks like it will break north anytime





Buy orders Sell orders
Num(%) Num Vol(%) Vol VWAP Vol Vol(%) Num Num(%)
1% (56.98%) 49 (53.18%) 7,493,062 122.27 - 123.62 6,597,756 (46.82%) 37 (43.02%)
5% (52.99%) 62 (51.84%) 12,643,562 121.81 - 124.02 11,743,943 (48.16%) 55 (47.01%)
10% (49.03%) 101 (48.67%) 16,041,211 121.15 - 124.90 16,918,208 (51.33%) 105 (50.97%)
15% (47.87%) 135 (47.05%) 20,012,106 119.87 - 126.62 22,522,700 (52.95%) 147 (52.13%)
50% (55.77%) 203 (49.54%) 22,987,548 118.33 - 127.12 23,418,390 (50.46%) 161 (44.23%)
100% (54.86%) 220 (49.62%) 23,291,100 118.04 - 127.41 23,643,572 (50.38%) 181 (45.14%)
all (53.92%) 220 (49.59%) 23,291,100 118.04 - 127.64 23,679,770 (50.41%) 188 (46.08%)

Has VOD L2 got far worse? Hastily got in again, should've cancelled order on news.

Buy orders Sell orders
Num(%) Num Vol(%) Vol VWAP Vol Vol(%) Num Num(%)
1% (49.15%) 29 (53.82%) 5,696,533 120.90 - 122.08 4,888,750 (46.18%) 30 (50.85%)
5% (40.52%) 47 (36.06%) 7,423,397 120.62 - 122.78 13,161,596 (63.94%) 69 (59.48%)
10% (40.10%) 77 (28.77%) 9,675,382 119.83 - 123.79 23,959,524 (71.23%) 115 (59.90%)
15% (39.35%) 109 (32.66%) 14,533,799 117.60 - 125.09 29,970,216 (67.34%) 168 (60.65%)
50% (47.53%) 173 (34.01%) 16,090,872 116.47 - 125.48 31,218,350 (65.99%) 191 (52.47%)
100% (46.29%) 187 (33.61%) 16,344,071 116.12 - 126.08 32,281,942 (66.39%) 217 (53.71%)
all (45.50%) 187 (33.59%) 16,344,071 116.12 - 126.25 32,318,140 (66.41%) 224 (54.50%

Has VOD L2 got even more worse? MMO2 seems to be holding up while this is tanking.

not looking at vod but oom has started ticking back up




Buy orders Sell orders
Num(%) Num Vol(%) Vol VWAP Vol Vol(%) Num Num(%)
1% (56.25%) 45 (59.87%) 7,431,997 119.40 - 120.54 4,980,894 (40.13%) 35 (43.75%)
5% (50.77%) 66 (49.96%) 9,694,707 119.07 - 121.12 9,709,645 (50.04%) 64 (49.23%)
10% (43.11%) 97 (33.42%) 13,772,092 118.04 - 122.92 27,440,888 (66.58%) 128 (56.89%)
15% (38.19%) 118 (32.35%) 16,201,059 117.02 - 124.07 33,885,340 (67.65%) 191 (61.81%)
50% (45.82%) 181 (32.90%) 17,791,244 116.02 - 124.72 36,284,696 (67.10%) 214 (54.18%)
100% (44.16%) 193 (32.50%) 17,991,280 115.75 - 125.26 37,359,864 (67.50%) 244 (55.84%)
all (43.50%) 194 (32.48%) 17,991,282 115.75 - 125.42 37,396,064 (67.52%) 252 (56.50%

at a 24 hour low at this time

looks like we are bouncing from the low

L2 weak? BOE left rates unchanged perhaps ECB will lower. Markets at day lows.

Not looking good Short Term but look at volumes on market and on OOM .... low on a down day ...



ains



Buy orders Sell orders
Num(%) Num Vol(%) Vol VWAP Vol Vol(%) Num Num(%)
1% (53.13%) 17 (48.55%) 1,525,936 53.35 - 53.94 1,617,175 (51.45%) 15 (46.88%)
5% (60.47%) 26 (65.16%) 3,596,833 52.96 - 54.04 1,923,425 (34.84%) 17 (39.53%)
10% (57.38%) 35 (60.58%) 3,782,557 52.90 - 54.29 2,461,749 (39.42%) 26 (42.62%)
15% (56.72%) 38 (61.42%) 4,005,357 52.74 - 54.34 2,516,149 (38.58%) 29 (43.28%)
50% (54.29%) 38 (61.25%) 4,005,357 52.74 - 54.38 2,534,453 (38.75%) 32 (45.71%)
100% (52.56%) 41 (53.76%) 4,025,477 52.66 - 56.53 3,462,258 (46.24%) 37 (47.44%)
all (51.90%) 41 (53.73%) 4,025,477 52.66 - 56.64 3,466,258 (46.27%) 38 (48.10%

Nice stepped move northwards from around 945 yesterday morning - still continuing as market and sector improve

May 10, 2003

Tempus

Mobiles are the pick of the mix
By Dan Sabbagh



HAVE the lines gone dead? After four years of heady excitement, the telecoms industry has gone on hold. A succession of corporate crises starting with BT and ending with Cable & Wireless has come to a halt, and the industrys survivors are too poor to do any more than fantasise about acquisitions.
Todays mantra is free cashflow generation the sensible, if worthy, emphasis on growing profits every year. It is great for dividends, but not for headlines, which makes it exactly the right time to think about buying into the sector.

After three years of relentless share price falls, valuations look reasonable. This year, as the graph shows, the telecoms sector has outperformed the FTSE all-share average. The forthcoming results season is likely to see more earnings surprises, and there is no reason why in well-managed companies the share-price momentum will not continue.

The mobile sector is more attractive to risk averse investors, because competition is limited. With penetration levels running at 70 per cent plus across Europe there is no room for new entrants. Even the third-generation innovator, 3, with its neat new videophones, will fail to win enough customers despite the deep pockets of parent Hutchison Whampoa.

That does not mean that the third-generation will let down the established operators. They badly need the extra voice capacity, but demand for new internet services is growing although it is in its infancy. Revenue growth will continue, but its pace will moderate into low single digits. Earnings, however, will grow faster as operators squeeze costs this year and next, and capital investment thereafter as the third generation build-out slows.

Vodafone is capable of increasing earnings by 8 per cent compound over the next five years, and will generate at least 5 billion of cash annually after all costs. Yet the company pays out only 1.1 billion a year on a dividend that yields 1.3 per cent; there is plenty of room for dividend increases if the acquisitions stop. Vodafones management has repeatedly outperformed profit expectations, and the stock is a core holding, with international reach cushioning any local problems. MmO2 offers more reward, although, unlike Vodafone, the groups subscale German operation means that it will not make profits until the second half of this decade. That would change overnight if mmO2 could sell, or better still, merge in Germany, with the slightly larger number three business in the country owned by Dutch group KPN. MmO2s share of an enlarged German business would be about 35 per cent. Group losses would turn to profits of 300 million plus. Management is showing willingness to double up with the Dutch, but can the egos on each side agree?

Orange is probably the least attractive of the three because, despite its strengths in the UK and France, it is highly valued and uncertainty still remains about the companys relationship with its parent France Tom. The picture will clear a little in June when Solomon Trujillo, the new chief executive, unveils his strategy.

The fixed-line segment, BT apart, is more risky. Competition remains intense, and players who were stricken are returning. Pricing is still declining in international segments, but within the UK, in absolute terms, the falls are now manageable.BT itself is solidly profitable, yielding 3.2 per cent, and the worries about the health of its pension fund are overdone. A push into IT services is proving successful, but it is not clear that this will generate enough revenue growth to make up for the lack of a mobile business. The company is performing well, but not excitingly enough to justify a rating beyond hold.

Cable & Wireless has enough cash to see it through the inevitable next restructuring in the US. That is likely to cost less than expected, which is good in the short term, but the companys exposure to the most competitive parts of the market means long-term improvement is far off.

Cable and cable, meanwhile, is still a mess. Customer service is appalling. The restructured NTL carries too much debt. Telewest is better, once it too restructures, but the story comes together only in a merger that will save 300 million a year.

As for the rest, COLT is years away from becoming not very profitable, while Kingston Communications is struggling to expand outside Hull. Both should be avoided, although neither face the problems of the overindebted (and now private) Energis, which will battle to convince its lenders that it is viable. The exception, however, is Thus, which is well on its way to turning profitable next year. and whose shares could double from present levels if it does so.

LONDON (AFX) - Mobile phones group mm02 PLC is close to clinching more than 1 bln stg worth of contracts for its Airwave radio system, according to The Business.
The newspaper did not name its source, but said the company's is the City's favourite to win the fire and ambulance contracts currently under tender.

The ambulance contract is due to be awarded later this year with the fire service deal due in 2004.

O2 Ireland today announced the availability of Desktop Text, a service that enables PC users to send an SMS message directly from their PC to any mobile phone, regardless of network.

Available to download from the O2 website, Desktop Text creates a 'New SMS' button in the user's Microsoft Outlook which allows them to simply type a text message on their PC and send it to any mobile phone number.

Users can also select the recipients' name from their PC address book, allowing distribution of messages to large groups and enabling employers to communicate with up to 400 employees at one time.

KPN denies mmO2 merger gossip
12 May 2003, Evening Standard

UTCH phone group Royal KPN poured cold water on rumours that it is in merger talks with mobile group mmO2's German arm.

Chief executive Ad Scheepbouwer, reporting the group's third consecutive quarter of improved profit, said: 'We are not talking to mmO2, though there is a price for everything. My door is always open.'

Ains, please provide L2 for VOD & OOM. Appears to be suffering after KPN comments.