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Traders Thread - Friday 20th February (AL.)
Crocodile - 19 Feb 2004 23:02
| UK PreMarket Futures | FTSE -25 | DAX -30 | DOW +2 | S&P -0.3 | Nasdaq +1.5 |
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| News: | Sorry Your browser is not java capable |
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U.S. stocks closed lower with most of the declines made in the last half hour of trading with the Nasdaq being hardest hit Alliance & Leicester reported profit up 12 percent to 525 million pounds from 468.3 million a year earlier slightly above market expectations mainly due to mortgage lending. It also announced that it would buy back shares this year. De Vere Group hotelier said it saw its overall trading environment as variable, with resilience in the leisure break market but a less consistent recovery in business conference demand. Like for like revenues rose 1.8 percent in the first 19 weeks of its financial year. Go-Ahead transport group posted a 43-percent jump in half-year profits to 47 million up from 33 million and at the top end of estimates, boosted by its rail and bus units. |
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Go-Ahead Group (F), Alliance & Leicester (F), ASOSDe Vere Group (AGM), Bankers Investment Trust (AGM) |
1.30pm Core CPI 1.30pm CPI |
Deutsche Boerse (F) L'Oreal (F) |
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Guscavalier
- 26 Sep 2007 09:32
- 34 of 58
Fortunately I sold mine at just over 10 pound before the fall. Interesting that wholesale rates have eased below BOE emergency lending rate.AsI for myself, I wouldn,t reinvest at present.
cynic
- 26 Sep 2007 10:02
- 35 of 58
i haven't either! ..... i merely pointed out the possibility
cynic
- 27 Sep 2007 15:26
- 36 of 58
looks like i called this right even if i didn't dabble myself
cynic
- 03 Jan 2008 09:36
- 37 of 58
i was ashamed to admit yesterday that i had bought in here at 753 as i feared it was just pure greed that would get punished ...... as it happens, telegraph rates AL. a buy on the basis of high yield and potential t/o and in any case, sp has zipped up to 800 this morning.
have just noticed that merrill have also upgraded from sell to neutral
have just noticed that merrill have also upgraded from sell to neutral
BAYLIS
- 03 Jan 2008 22:04
- 38 of 58
sold 2jan08 752p hny.
cynic
- 23 Jan 2008 11:50
- 39 of 58
AL. has been downgraded to sell by ABN though surprisingly there has not been much reaction to that this morning.
given the volatility and fragility of the markets, i think this makes an interesting potential short, with a target of 650 or even 600 .... or even 548 if you want to take ABN's number
given the volatility and fragility of the markets, i think this makes an interesting potential short, with a target of 650 or even 600 .... or even 548 if you want to take ABN's number
poo bear
- 23 Jan 2008 14:51
- 40 of 58
Wondered where you had gone Oh Truth Sayer.
So you are playing with Banks, very dodgy just now but good luck.
So you are playing with Banks, very dodgy just now but good luck.
cynic
- 23 Jan 2008 15:21
- 41 of 58
no .... but thought about it
cynic
- 28 Jan 2008 09:20
- 42 of 58
more downgrades for AL. as below .......
Dresdner Kleinwort has cut Alliance & Leicester to 'sell' from 'hold', with a 680 pence target ...... A&L's share price has been buoyed by M&A speculation, leaving it at 8.7 times 2009 earnings -- a two point premium to peers
Societe Generale said it has initiated coverage on A&L with a 'sell' rating and a target price of 607 pence ...... recent takeover speculation has inflated A&L shares above what it views as their fundamental value, and it is of the belief that neither bank (B&B) is a takeover target in the near term ...... The broker said that despite attractive dividend yields and relatively low valuations, it believes that the two small UK retail banks face common and unique headwinds that will mute their earnings growth potential and limit the room for a positive surprise.
Dresdner Kleinwort has cut Alliance & Leicester to 'sell' from 'hold', with a 680 pence target ...... A&L's share price has been buoyed by M&A speculation, leaving it at 8.7 times 2009 earnings -- a two point premium to peers
Societe Generale said it has initiated coverage on A&L with a 'sell' rating and a target price of 607 pence ...... recent takeover speculation has inflated A&L shares above what it views as their fundamental value, and it is of the belief that neither bank (B&B) is a takeover target in the near term ...... The broker said that despite attractive dividend yields and relatively low valuations, it believes that the two small UK retail banks face common and unique headwinds that will mute their earnings growth potential and limit the room for a positive surprise.
cynic
- 29 Jan 2008 09:31
- 43 of 58
more broker reaction below, none of it positive ..... have opened a short here, and sp falling despite strong market ...... can't help it if none of you follow!
Panmure Gordon kept 'hold' and its 655 pence price target, saying it thinks the bad news has already been largely priced in.
Collins Stewart kept 'sell' on the bank, with a 600 pence price target, saying it has outperformed other UK banks by 23 pct in the past month, when takeover rumours have persisted ...... with falling earnings forecast in 2008, the 32 pct premium to the sector (8.3x vs 6.3x for 2008) appears to already fully price in a takeover.
Panmure Gordon kept 'hold' and its 655 pence price target, saying it thinks the bad news has already been largely priced in.
Collins Stewart kept 'sell' on the bank, with a 600 pence price target, saying it has outperformed other UK banks by 23 pct in the past month, when takeover rumours have persisted ...... with falling earnings forecast in 2008, the 32 pct premium to the sector (8.3x vs 6.3x for 2008) appears to already fully price in a takeover.
cynic
- 29 Jan 2008 14:09
- 44 of 58
and some more ......
Analysts said A&L's statement had done little to justify the stock's recent relative strength, which they attributed to takeover speculation.
'It is difficult to see how A&L will continue to outperform on the basis of this announcement,' said Oriel Securities analyst Mike Trippitt, who cut his stance on the stock to 'hold' from 'add'.
In a note to clients, Dresdner Kleinwort analysts, who have a 'sell' stance on the stock, said the change 'will likely cause disruption within the management team at what is a difficult time for all banks.'
Analysts said A&L's statement had done little to justify the stock's recent relative strength, which they attributed to takeover speculation.
'It is difficult to see how A&L will continue to outperform on the basis of this announcement,' said Oriel Securities analyst Mike Trippitt, who cut his stance on the stock to 'hold' from 'add'.
In a note to clients, Dresdner Kleinwort analysts, who have a 'sell' stance on the stock, said the change 'will likely cause disruption within the management team at what is a difficult time for all banks.'
cynic
- 29 Jan 2008 16:24
- 45 of 58
hope some of you followed me .... if not, then your losses so to speak
cynic
- 31 Jan 2008 17:08
- 46 of 58
closed position although after it had already bounced well off its bottom ..... a very nice profit nevertheless, and certainly AL. will stay on my watchlist for a further shorting opportunity .... 700 looks a serious point to consider, being a round number and where sp nudges back up to 50 dma
cynic
- 14 Feb 2008 16:05
- 47 of 58
Dow is struggling seriously to hold above 12500, and have shorted same.
Am also short of SOLA, and though did that too early at 276, am tempted to short further for all sorts of good chart reasons
Contemplated shorting here (AL.) but may have missed the boat.
would happlily consider other suggestions
Am also short of SOLA, and though did that too early at 276, am tempted to short further for all sorts of good chart reasons
Contemplated shorting here (AL.) but may have missed the boat.
would happlily consider other suggestions
BAYLIS
- 15 Feb 2008 14:34
- 48 of 58
Separately, A&L said its chief executive David Bennett has taken temporary leave of absence due to illness, and that finance director Chris Rhodes has taken on the role of acting chief executive.
BAYLIS
- 15 Feb 2008 14:36
- 49 of 58
when will it stop.
cynic
- 20 Feb 2008 09:47
- 50 of 58
was not brave enough to short the other day ..... with hindsight, perhaps should have thought more clearly and done so with a guaranteed stop.
anyway, AL. now looks like an interesting but quite brave long punt ...... sp has fallen off a cliff, which of course does not mean that it has yet hit the bottom ..... however, it would not be surprising to see the bears coming in to take their profits and/or a predator may even conclude that at this level (455/460), the company is worth absorbing
anyway, AL. now looks like an interesting but quite brave long punt ...... sp has fallen off a cliff, which of course does not mean that it has yet hit the bottom ..... however, it would not be surprising to see the bears coming in to take their profits and/or a predator may even conclude that at this level (455/460), the company is worth absorbing
Toya
- 20 Feb 2008 11:14
- 51 of 58
Reckon you could be right Cynic. Looking at Level 2, AL. may well be turning upwards.
Guscavalier
- 20 Feb 2008 11:28
- 52 of 58
tricky call re takeover. I think there are better prospects in other sectors in this respect. Not so sure the shares are cheap enough as I think additional writedowns will be seen. The idea is right but, its the execution that worries me. lol
cynic
- 20 Feb 2008 11:29
- 53 of 58
shall now polish the halo! ..... after some thought i bought in at 460 and am delighted to see sp now at about 485/490 ...... now need to determine at what price i should cash the profit
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