Thread designed to record set-ups and targets on index and FX pairs.
'A market is only your enemy until you understand it, then it becomes your best friend.'








Any questions, please feel free to ask.

From time to time i may openly state an opinion regarding direction of a set-up and wish to add that in no way am i recommending a trade. I am sometimes only in trades for a matter of minutes and can't always update as to entry/exits taken.
As always, markets are dangerous places to be and must be respected as such. Always use stop losses and never over-leverage; 3% of your pot as a maximum per trade. As always, YOU are responsible for your own trades! Happy pip hunting!

Click HERE to visit me at FXtechnicals.net

Something i mentioned last week with ref to the FTSE 'surely not' being in a 3rd wave. It does look a lot to me as if we are in an extending 5th wave, thus this pullback is indeed the 4th of the 3rd (of the 5th), so not only the 5th of the 3rd to come this year, but also the 4th&5th subwaves of the overall larger 5th too. Its not actually making the 5th easy to predict and i certainly don't like my ('i') placement, it doesn't look like a leading diagonal, so perhaps and irreg 'b' instead etc, still, if it ends up looking like this, we will see 7000+ before the turn...

Returning to Cable;

As stated before, the last count was slightly out, so we revert back to previous, lower green projection was the route (from 31st Jan);



Predicting end of 'C' was too tricky and i missed with my 123.6% prediction, (8th Feb);



It reacted off of the 100% level of A and the 23.6% retrace of entire 5w move.
Now we have our fresh wave 1 (of the 3rd i am expecting). There is zero strength about for it at the mo. We have punched through the weekly wedge (according to my charts at least) which has lasted 4 years or so.

The hourly shows a 5w count, with wave 3 reaching 261.8% of wave 1 and wave 5 hitting its channel line projection;



breaking down waves 4&5 on the 2min, i have the 5th reaching the 50% extension whilst simultaneously also reaching its own 61.8% minor 5th;



The immediate observation is though, that it isn't going back up!!!

Euro, been a bit tough to follow recently, i overlooked my earlier post. This was my old trading system, but requires too much discretion. In my quest to learn which phase the market is in and thus which flags work (and which do not), i moved onto EW!

Last week... break of flagline, risk = target;



A nasty pullback inbetween, but... et voila;

EurGbp, completed 5w cycle and now a good way through its corrective move;

EurGbp, now looks to have become a larger ABC, so will be looking out for a poss diagonal as this is a 5th wave. 'A' breaks down into 5w;

Couple other ideas saying weakness in Euro short term;

EJ poss;



and i also have a slightly different view to the obvious as a label for the Euro (current cycle), i don't like the structure of this count, but i do very much like the way the fibs line up, so difficult to trade with confidence, but worth watching;

Down day for the FTSE?



The safer bet is to wait for a break of point 'i', in case the entire 5w 'C' was a short leg and indeed as i have labelled 'i'.

Right, lets try and right a few wrongs. Ref the above, at the time the small (apparent 5w) point 'i', didn't conform to fib of entire 'A', so i didn't consider it to be complete 'C', however, it now appears to have been wave 'a' of larger 'C' being a diagonal. It looks horrible, but the ending at exactly 61.8% of 'A' is too good to be coincidental and PA since makes a HH, so this looks to be the case. Correction over and a fresh impulse wave up? or just a larger A wave and now in B? or even.... a complex B which has just ended, with C to follow? Only a clear count down next will tell, if in 5w its start of C, if in 3 its corrective wave 2 and we have higher to come. Lets hope PA is kind to us...



Considering how easy to spot waves A&B were, it was only right that C was a cock.

Elsewhere, loads of complex moves are making it really slow going. Moving to a larger view, i'm still of the opinion that the Euro has 5w short to make yet (with room for a little more upside yet);

Mistakes coming thick and fast lately, luckily they haven't cost me anything other than probable lost earnings.
The two enemies of Elliotticians are irregular B waves and short (truncated) waves, (C in particular). I have fallen foul of labeling the recent 5w short move on the EurGbp as wave A, when in fact, it was wave C following an irregular B;

The original count;



The mad thing was i ignored the obvious 4th wave of wave 1 and even had the 5th reaching its upper channel TL at around midday on the 12th.
The reason for doing so was that the following rise hit exactly 61.8% ext of prior move (indicating it likely a 5th wave). It fell inbetween the 161.8% & 200% ext levels of what now has to be wave A (and not 4).
Thus the new count;



Unfortunately it is only subsequent PA that has confirmed it all, so once again, malodyets mr.Market, hats doffed. The only thing to gain from this is not to try counter-trend trades. At least if not catching the move, because of a mislabel, DO NOT lose money trying to trade against the trend...

I've talked about Euro weakness on the cards for the last few days, in particular in post 352 above;

'Moving to a larger view, i'm still of the opinion that the Euro has 5w short to make yet (with room for a little more upside yet)';



Yep, that little bit more upside than i drew, but result the same;



Now, i've labeled it WXY, but i'm looking to see if i can turn it impulsive. Remember the previous charts showing possible end of the larger Y wave and thus potential trend change back to short?
Things are getting interesting out there...

Bigger picture at the start of the year;



and end of the cycle, end Jan/beginning Feb;



Soon we should know if this is an X wave and that there is a further cycle to follow (Z wave), or whether it was indeed trend change. If so, we have a long way to go down. We already know Cable is doomed... What does this meean for the markets? Hmmmm FTSE could be an ending diagonal and as stated before i have targets for the Dow and the S&P, both look to be rolling over.

Nothing for sure yet, as they might be in consolidation channels with a break to the upside to come. I know that's like covering my ass, but it's obviously a tough call. I'm not here to make those. A couple of charts here have been embarrassingly wrong, but i do try to give a counter scenario if/as i see it...

In the updated chart post 354 above, there are two red trend lines. Here is the daily showing the significance of them. We are dangerously close to breaking the lower one right now bang on 13,200. Its difficult to tell if the current move is likely ending here;



That's not to say, if we bounce from here, we will def be in a fresh long cycle. We really ought to be reacting to this line and level combined, however, if we are in a 3rd wave short, any bounce wont last for long.

This is still a real possibility. Loads of bears about for the Euro right now... contrarian indicator?



Up for another couple months yet? Sell in May, get the f*ck out of play?

Last Cable calls;



followed by;



I have gone against many mainstream analysts with my count. Lots were calling my first corrective A wave as a 4th and followed by an ending diagonal. Well they must have been left scratching their heads when B finished in 3 waves instead. This surely has to put pay to anyone who doubts charting and in particular EW...

Update;



This needs to be followed meticulously. When 4&5 are done, we could see a massive rise to retest the breakout of the monthly wedge, possibly a bounce from 15,000 area (maybe even sub), back upto 15,700 ish (just a vague idea), either way, we don't want to be covering shorts for such a possibility...

Previous EurJpy chart;



Update;

Only sense i can make of the current EurGbp count;



If so, we are merely corrective right now and with Cable to fall steeply over the coming months, what does that say for the Euro?

Looks like Euro weakness for short term, 4hr;



and a closer view on the 15min with wave 'c' = exactly 161.8% of wave 'a';



http://fxtechnicals.net/category/eurusd/

Possible 4th wave currently;



http://fxtechnicals.net/category/eurusd/

Similar outlook for EurJpy;



http://fxtechnicals.net/

Remember this, Post 290, Dow;



Looking for 14,070... so what happened when we got there?



It does indeed look to be rolling over, but is it just a consolidatory phase? The question everyone wants to know! I'm working on it, but my Euro count is based on being corrective right now. The two are closely correlated, so calling 14,070 was one thing, now we are here though, it's a tough call. I will probably be trying to determine waves as always to give a clue. Interesting to read other analysts turning bearish, could be contrarian.

http://fxtechnicals.net/