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It's Good to Talk + Text with OOM (OOM)     

ainsoph - 08 Feb 2003 15:32

This sums up much of my thinking - I hold a few and swing trade a few and even trade intraday sometimes ......

I think there is a lot of slack that management can cut out of the costs and would also anticipate sector consolidation ..... good value currently and have been holding their own in a falling market. Lot of US interest.

ains


Edited by Dominic White
(Filed: 08/02/2003)


Texting makes MmO2 sexy but it's also risky

More and more Britons are discovering the joys of textual intercourse. In the month of December, we fired off more than 50m mobile messages a day, and next Friday (that's Valentine's Day, folks, in case you'd forgotten) we'll send considerably more than that.



It emerged this week that the chief beneficiary of this craze is MmO2 . BT's former mobile phone division revealed that it gets a higher proportion of revenues from texting than any of the other three operators.

Revenue from messaging grew at its fastest rate ever in the last quarter, up 19pc, and data services as a proportion of MmO2 's revenue rose to 17.7pc from 15.6pc.

More good news was the rise in MmO2 's average revenues per customer. ARPUs, as nerdy analysts like to dub them, grew by 5pc to 243 in the UK and by 9pc in Germany to 212.

MmO2 now has 19.1m subscribers and in Britain it may be the smallest player, with 11.9m users, but it is growing faster than its rivals - testament to the success of its rebranding from BT Cellnet.

Only 114,000 of its 503,000 new UK subscribers were higher-spending contract customers, but MmO2 claims its pre-pay customers have started spending more than before.

Customer growth in Germany, which continues to be dominated by T-Mobile and Vodafone, is less impressive and the MmO2 share price ascribes little or no value to this part of the business.

That seems unfair, given the fact that the group has attracted higher-spending customers and has made a decent fist of turning the operation around. An eventual sale or merger is almost as inevitable as a disposal of the Dutch unit, which is losing customers.

MmO2 's larger rival Vodafone is trading on a free cashflow yield of 6pc, while at 49p this week, MmO2 's equivalent valuation remains negative. It might not have Vodafone's scale or profitability but there is room for upside. A risky buy.

ainsoph - 09 May 2003 11:50 - 347 of 498

Nice stepped move northwards from around 945 yesterday morning - still continuing as market and sector improve

ainsoph - 10 May 2003 10:07 - 348 of 498

May 10, 2003

Tempus

Mobiles are the pick of the mix
By Dan Sabbagh



HAVE the lines gone dead? After four years of heady excitement, the telecoms industry has gone on hold. A succession of corporate crises starting with BT and ending with Cable & Wireless has come to a halt, and the industrys survivors are too poor to do any more than fantasise about acquisitions.
Todays mantra is free cashflow generation the sensible, if worthy, emphasis on growing profits every year. It is great for dividends, but not for headlines, which makes it exactly the right time to think about buying into the sector.

After three years of relentless share price falls, valuations look reasonable. This year, as the graph shows, the telecoms sector has outperformed the FTSE all-share average. The forthcoming results season is likely to see more earnings surprises, and there is no reason why in well-managed companies the share-price momentum will not continue.

The mobile sector is more attractive to risk averse investors, because competition is limited. With penetration levels running at 70 per cent plus across Europe there is no room for new entrants. Even the third-generation innovator, 3, with its neat new videophones, will fail to win enough customers despite the deep pockets of parent Hutchison Whampoa.

That does not mean that the third-generation will let down the established operators. They badly need the extra voice capacity, but demand for new internet services is growing although it is in its infancy. Revenue growth will continue, but its pace will moderate into low single digits. Earnings, however, will grow faster as operators squeeze costs this year and next, and capital investment thereafter as the third generation build-out slows.

Vodafone is capable of increasing earnings by 8 per cent compound over the next five years, and will generate at least 5 billion of cash annually after all costs. Yet the company pays out only 1.1 billion a year on a dividend that yields 1.3 per cent; there is plenty of room for dividend increases if the acquisitions stop. Vodafones management has repeatedly outperformed profit expectations, and the stock is a core holding, with international reach cushioning any local problems. MmO2 offers more reward, although, unlike Vodafone, the groups subscale German operation means that it will not make profits until the second half of this decade. That would change overnight if mmO2 could sell, or better still, merge in Germany, with the slightly larger number three business in the country owned by Dutch group KPN. MmO2s share of an enlarged German business would be about 35 per cent. Group losses would turn to profits of 300 million plus. Management is showing willingness to double up with the Dutch, but can the egos on each side agree?

Orange is probably the least attractive of the three because, despite its strengths in the UK and France, it is highly valued and uncertainty still remains about the companys relationship with its parent France Tom. The picture will clear a little in June when Solomon Trujillo, the new chief executive, unveils his strategy.

The fixed-line segment, BT apart, is more risky. Competition remains intense, and players who were stricken are returning. Pricing is still declining in international segments, but within the UK, in absolute terms, the falls are now manageable.BT itself is solidly profitable, yielding 3.2 per cent, and the worries about the health of its pension fund are overdone. A push into IT services is proving successful, but it is not clear that this will generate enough revenue growth to make up for the lack of a mobile business. The company is performing well, but not excitingly enough to justify a rating beyond hold.

Cable & Wireless has enough cash to see it through the inevitable next restructuring in the US. That is likely to cost less than expected, which is good in the short term, but the companys exposure to the most competitive parts of the market means long-term improvement is far off.

Cable and cable, meanwhile, is still a mess. Customer service is appalling. The restructured NTL carries too much debt. Telewest is better, once it too restructures, but the story comes together only in a merger that will save 300 million a year.

As for the rest, COLT is years away from becoming not very profitable, while Kingston Communications is struggling to expand outside Hull. Both should be avoided, although neither face the problems of the overindebted (and now private) Energis, which will battle to convince its lenders that it is viable. The exception, however, is Thus, which is well on its way to turning profitable next year. and whose shares could double from present levels if it does so.


ainsoph - 11 May 2003 17:52 - 349 of 498

LONDON (AFX) - Mobile phones group mm02 PLC is close to clinching more than 1 bln stg worth of contracts for its Airwave radio system, according to The Business.
The newspaper did not name its source, but said the company's is the City's favourite to win the fire and ambulance contracts currently under tender.

The ambulance contract is due to be awarded later this year with the fire service deal due in 2004.

ainsoph - 12 May 2003 09:42 - 350 of 498

O2 Ireland today announced the availability of Desktop Text, a service that enables PC users to send an SMS message directly from their PC to any mobile phone, regardless of network.

Available to download from the O2 website, Desktop Text creates a 'New SMS' button in the user's Microsoft Outlook which allows them to simply type a text message on their PC and send it to any mobile phone number.

Users can also select the recipients' name from their PC address book, allowing distribution of messages to large groups and enabling employers to communicate with up to 400 employees at one time.

ainsoph - 13 May 2003 08:28 - 351 of 498

KPN denies mmO2 merger gossip
12 May 2003, Evening Standard

UTCH phone group Royal KPN poured cold water on rumours that it is in merger talks with mobile group mmO2's German arm.

Chief executive Ad Scheepbouwer, reporting the group's third consecutive quarter of improved profit, said: 'We are not talking to mmO2, though there is a price for everything. My door is always open.'

stv - 13 May 2003 12:45 - 352 of 498

Ains, please provide L2 for VOD & OOM. Appears to be suffering after KPN comments.

ainsoph - 13 May 2003 12:50 - 353 of 498


Buy orders Sell orders
Num(%) Num Vol(%) Vol VWAP Vol Vol(%) Num Num(%)
1% (54.29%) 19 (40.83%) 1,148,702 54.73 - 55.48 1,665,019 (59.17%) 16 (45.71%)
5% (53.49%) 23 (48.34%) 1,716,633 54.49 - 55.53 1,834,585 (51.66%) 20 (46.51%)
10% (56.72%) 38 (49.24%) 2,096,402 54.26 - 55.72 2,161,530 (50.76%) 29 (43.28%)
15% (56.10%) 46 (51.38%) 3,302,951 52.95 - 57.11 3,126,009 (48.62%) 36 (43.90%)
50% (55.42%) 46 (51.26%) 3,302,951 52.95 - 57.13 3,141,009 (48.74%) 37 (44.58%)
100% (55.68%) 49 (51.01%) 3,323,071 52.84 - 57.25 3,191,701 (48.99%) 39 (44.32%)
all (55.06%) 49 (50.98%) 3,323,071 52.84 - 57.37 3,195,701 (49.02%) 40 (44.94%)




Buy orders Sell orders
Num(%) Num Vol(%) Vol VWAP Vol Vol(%) Num Num(%)
1% (44.30%) 35 (32.82%) 5,237,523 121.28 - 122.64 10,722,038 (67.18%) 44 (55.70%)
5% (56.20%) 68 (47.49%) 11,476,713 120.68 - 122.80 12,689,828 (52.51%) 53 (43.80%)
10% (53.23%) 107 (43.55%) 17,758,020 119.62 - 124.08 23,016,366 (56.45%) 94 (46.77%)
15% (54.98%) 160 (46.08%) 23,510,400 118.30 - 125.18 27,511,424 (53.92%) 131 (45.02%)
50% (56.47%) 205 (46.00%) 25,076,972 117.52 - 125.96 29,437,136 (54.00%) 158 (43.53%)
100% (55.00%) 220 (46.04%) 25,313,482 117.30 - 126.21 29,671,894 (53.96%) 180 (45.00%)
all (54.19%) 220 (46.01%) 25,313,482 117.30 - 126.39 29,707,040 (53.99%) 186 (45.81%)



stv - 13 May 2003 15:22 - 354 of 498

Ains, please provide updated L2 for VOD & OOM. Seem to be holding despite -ve US.

ainsoph - 13 May 2003 15:24 - 355 of 498

sector is up 1%




Buy orders Sell orders
Num(%) Num Vol(%) Vol VWAP Vol Vol(%) Num Num(%)
1% (55.24%) 58 (49.00%) 9,624,810 121.47 - 122.76 10,017,362 (51.00%) 47 (44.76%)
5% (62.84%) 93 (56.00%) 16,176,070 120.98 - 123.06 12,711,562 (44.00%) 55 (37.16%)
10% (59.39%) 136 (50.89%) 22,525,376 120.12 - 124.21 21,735,500 (49.11%) 93 (40.61%)
15% (59.63%) 192 (52.22%) 28,668,808 118.87 - 125.34 26,230,560 (47.78%) 130 (40.37%)
50% (60.15%) 237 (51.78%) 30,235,380 118.20 - 126.14 28,156,272 (48.22%) 157 (39.85%)
100% (58.33%) 252 (51.76%) 30,471,888 118.01 - 126.41 28,396,760 (48.24%) 180 (41.67%)
all (57.50%) 253 (51.73%) 30,471,890 118.01 - 126.59 28,431,908 (48.27%) 187 (42.50%


Buy orders Sell orders
Num(%) Num Vol(%) Vol VWAP Vol Vol(%) Num Num(%)
1% (39.29%) 11 (41.89%) 1,177,089 54.95 - 55.58 1,632,695 (58.11%) 17 (60.71%)
5% (40.54%) 15 (50.53%) 1,954,567 54.77 - 55.71 1,913,843 (49.47%) 22 (59.46%)
10% (48.28%) 28 (58.56%) 2,885,836 54.46 - 55.82 2,042,143 (41.44%) 30 (51.72%)
15% (50.68%) 37 (57.89%) 4,111,085 53.34 - 57.23 2,990,322 (42.11%) 36 (49.32%)
50% (50.00%) 37 (57.77%) 4,111,085 53.34 - 57.25 3,005,322 (42.23%) 37 (50.00%)
100% (50.63%) 40 (57.48%) 4,131,205 53.25 - 57.38 3,056,014 (42.52%) 39 (49.37%)
all (50.00%) 40 (57.45%) 4,131,205 53.25 - 57.50 3,060,014 (42.55%) 40 (50.00%)

ainsoph - 14 May 2003 10:24 - 356 of 498

Seems to have done a little more for emblaze (hold a few as speculative longer term recovery play)this morning than oom but is good news



Emblaze Systems and O2 Launch Pilot for Mobile Video in the UK

Ra'anana, Israel, May 14, 2003 - Emblaze Systems Ltd (LSE: BLZ), announces the
launch of a trial for mobile video with O2, a leading provider of mobile
services to consumers and businesses in the UK. Emblaze is providing a turnkey
solution, incorporating video streaming & download, managed services, production
and publishing of content and a wide variety of end user services.

O2 has selected 350 customers to participate in a free, six-week trial, using
the O2 xda, Nokia 7650 and Nokia 3650 mobile devices. The trial focuses on three
principal areas: Streaming video, downloading clips and video messaging. Using
the Emblaze EMplatform(TM), O2 will offer a continuously updated range of services
from news, weather and entertainment, through music & movie trailers. O2 is also
leveraging its sponsorship of Arsenal football club and the England rugby team.

O2 is using its GPRS network to enable trial participants to browse, select and
download video clips via a special WAP portal set up by Emblaze. Further,
Emblaze offers an innovative feature - enabling trial users to easily download
the EMplayer(TM) directly from the portal.

Emblaze has delivered a complete end-to-end service, including technology,
service management, and hosting, together with its partner, Virtue Broadcasting
PLC - a major provider of streaming media services; thus creating a wireless
application service provider (WASP) solution.

Emblaze provides a customized, media centric, end-to-end solution for wireless
multimedia, enabling wireless operators to create, manage and deliver rich media
services and offer a personalized communications experience to their wireless
subscribers. On demand news, weather and sports services as well as messaging
and online audio/video capabilities enable wireless service providers to
generate new forms of revenue from their subscriber base. The Emblaze solution
runs on all networks, including GSM/GPRS, EDGE, UMTS, CDMA, 1X, and EVDO. It is
also compatible with all leading formats, such as MPEG4, Windows Media.

Eli Reifman, CEO of Emblaze Systems Ltd, said: " We are focused on helping O2
achieve its goals, namely to maximize revenues from existing 2.5G networks and
to extend the range of services currently offered. The successful introduction
of new rich media services is dependant on the quality of the user experience:
Emblaze ensures the best user experience to the widest number of people - on any
network and any rich-media wireless device."

Dave McGlade, CEO O2 UK said: "Mobile Video is a natural addition to the range
of services we already offer like Media Messaging and the O2 Games Arcade and
fully exploits the technology we have available today. We want to develop a
range of communications and entertainment services that our customers really
want and trials like this give us the opportunity to listen to our customers and
get crucial feedback."

"A partnership with Emblaze extends our strong position out of the IP video/
audio streaming arena into the mobile space and enables Virtue to deliver new
streaming services to our clients" said Giles English, Director Virtue
Broadcasting. "If the trial proves successful we will be rolling the services
out to our whole client base."

ainsoph - 14 May 2003 11:46 - 357 of 498

Price is picking up now and sector is positive - vols already nearly 50% up on yesterday


Sanford Bernstein has raised its rating for mmO2 (OOM) from neutral to outperform raising its target price to 85p.

stv - 14 May 2003 12:10 - 358 of 498

What's L2 showing and where is this going to over the next few days do you think.

ainsoph - 14 May 2003 12:16 - 359 of 498

thats a difficult one .... market is very choppy .... someone was just saying on CNBC that finanial web site chat rooms in US are reporting big increases in number of posts and peeps returning to the market. I am fully invested at this time ....



Buy orders Sell orders
Num(%) Num Vol(%) Vol VWAP Vol Vol(%) Num Num(%)
1% (46.15%) 12 (82.91%) 4,492,911 56.05 - 56.84 926,117 (17.09%) 14 (53.85%)
5% (52.50%) 21 (81.93%) 6,139,475 55.89 - 57.02 1,353,854 (18.07%) 19 (47.50%)
10% (60.66%) 37 (85.61%) 8,617,920 55.49 - 57.09 1,448,050 (14.39%) 24 (39.34%)
15% (62.65%) 52 (80.85%) 10,314,114 54.88 - 58.48 2,443,188 (19.15%) 31 (37.35%)
50% (63.53%) 54 (81.15%) 10,519,114 54.79 - 58.48 2,443,188 (18.85%) 31 (36.47%)
100% (63.33%) 57 (80.87%) 10,539,234 54.75 - 58.61 2,493,880 (19.13%) 33 (36.67%)
all (62.64%) 57 (80.84%) 10,539,234 54.75 - 58.76 2,497,880 (19.16%) 34 (37.36%

ainsoph - 14 May 2003 12:25 - 360 of 498

LONDON (AFX) - Mobile phones group mm02 PLC is close to clinching more than 1 bln stg worth of contracts for its Airwave radio system, according to The Business.
The newspaper did not name its source, but said the company's is the City's favourite to win the fire and ambulance contracts currently under tender.

The ambulance contract is due to be awarded later this year with the fire service deal due in 2004.

ainsoph - 14 May 2003 12:30 - 361 of 498

LONDON (AFX) - Shares in Emblaze Systems moved up 4-1/2 to 105 - a near 45 pct gain - after the company said it is to launch a trial for mobile video with mmO2's subsidiary O2.
Using the Emblaze EMplatform, O2 will offer a continuously updated range of services from news, weather and entertainment to music and movie trailers

stv - 14 May 2003 13:53 - 362 of 498

L2 status now? So much for you thiking this is'nt taking off +5%. You lucky man.

ainsoph - 14 May 2003 13:57 - 363 of 498

:-)




Buy orders Sell orders
Num(%) Num Vol(%) Vol VWAP Vol Vol(%) Num Num(%)
1% (41.38%) 12 (55.61%) 1,372,843 57.09 - 57.94 1,096,053 (44.39%) 17 (58.62%)
5% (47.62%) 20 (70.78%) 3,861,651 56.75 - 58.12 1,593,837 (29.22%) 22 (52.38%)
10% (52.78%) 38 (77.40%) 9,975,543 56.15 - 59.03 2,913,446 (22.60%) 34 (47.22%)
15% (62.77%) 59 (80.29%) 11,929,029 55.75 - 59.05 2,928,446 (19.71%) 35 (37.23%)
50% (63.73%) 65 (81.51%) 13,130,037 55.30 - 59.15 2,979,138 (18.49%) 37 (36.27%)
100% (64.76%) 68 (81.53%) 13,150,157 55.27 - 59.15 2,979,138 (18.47%) 37 (35.24%)
all (64.15%) 68 (81.51%) 13,150,157 55.27 - 59.27 2,983,138 (18.49%) 38 (35.85%

ainsoph - 15 May 2003 08:01 - 364 of 498

I note oftel are looking into mobile charges again but say they will not be interfering in G3 charging

This looks like potential good news


May 15, 2003

Mobile operators may claim 4bn refund
By Dan Sabbagh TIMES



BRITAINs five mobile phone operators are considering launching a claim for a 4 billion refund of VAT. The Times has learnt that the companies believe the 22.5 billion they paid in the third-generation licence auction three years ago included VAT.
A claim, if launched, would be fiercely resisted by the Treasury, which used the windfall proceeds to make record debt repayments during 2000.

The Government says the sale of licences was VATexempt, a position that is now being challenged. If the operators could prove that VAT was part of the purchase price, then they could apply for a VAT refund worth 17.5 per cent of the total, or 3.9 billion, from Customs and Excise.

Most businesses do not pay VAT, although sometimes a company has to reclaim the sales tax back from the authorities when it has been forced to pay up on a purchase.

The search for a legal basis to challenge the Government remains at its early stages, but The Times has learnt that all Britains operators Vodafone, Orange, mmO2, Deutsche Telekoms T-Mobile and Hutchison Whampoas 3 have examined the issue carefully. None is yet ready to discuss the subject in public. But privately, one operator said: Our shareholders would expect us to look at this seriously, given the sums involved.

The background to any British claim comes from Germany, where third-generation licences were sold for 30.5 billion in 2000. VAT is harmonised across the European Union, and a ruling in Germany would have clear implications for the UK.

The Dutch group KPN said earlier this week that it was orchestrating a campaign of the countrys big four operators, which include Vodafone, and mmO2, to pursue a VAT refund which would be worth 5 billion. The Times has learnt KPN is demanding a VAT invoice from the German Government, which has refused to comply.

A spokesman for KPN said: There is no consensus amongst tax experts as to whether VAT was applicable on the licences. There are discussions ongoing in Germany, and legal action is always possible if the tax authorities are not willing to comply.

British tax experts believe that a claim for a refund would be optimistic but not impossible. Paddy Behan, a VAT specialist with the accountants Grant Thornton, said: Because of the amounts involved, it is very likely that the companies will press on.

The EUs Sixth VAT Directive, which governs the taxs basic principles, says VAT should not generally apply to public authorities. However, it also says that if a public authority engages in one of a list of specified activities, including telecoms, then VAT must be levied. Mr Behan said: The rules seem to be designed for when telecoms services are provided by state-owned providers, but the companies in these cases may try to argue that the licensing round was a telecommunications activity. If this were accepted they would get the result they want but it is a difficult argument to make.

A spokeswoman for Customs and Excise said: We are monitoring what is happening in Germany. But we will defend any attack on legitimate government revenues; in our view no VAT is due on regulated activities.

A sudden need to find 4 billion from the Treasurys coffers this year would be a headache for Gordon Brown. The demand would come at a time when the public finances are badly stretched by weakening tax revenues and extra public spending.


stv - 15 May 2003 08:34 - 365 of 498

15 May 2003

Oftel publishes mobile call termination market review

Measures to promote competition and reduce the price of calling a mobile phone
have been proposed today by Oftel.

Action is necessary because consumers pay too much for making calls to mobile
phones as they have no choice but to incur the high connection charge set by the
operator of the network they are calling.

Oftel is reviewing the calls to mobile phones market as part of its work to
implement the new EC Directives on electronic communications networks by 25 July

This is a separate review from the recent Competition Commission investigation
into call termination rates, which was carried out under the current telecoms
regulatory framework. The Commission made recommendations for charge controls
over the next three years, but the introduction of the new Directives means
Oftel is required to carry out a fresh review under the terms and procedures of
the Directives, before reaching its own conclusions.

The key proposals set out Oftel's review of the calls to mobile phones market
are to:

protect consumers from excessive call termination charges through a
continuation of controls to reduce the amount mobile operators charge to
connect calls to their networks;

promote competition between operators by ensuring equal access and no
undue discrimination against other operators for terminating calls onto the
mobile networks; and

not impose regulation on the 3G market as these are new and innovative
services and regulatory controls would be disproportionate while the market
is developing.

David Edmonds, Director General of Telecommunications said today:

'Calls to mobile phones is a separate market from the mobile retail market and
has no effective competition, because consumers cannot choose between
terminating networks when they make a call to a mobile phone.

'Calling someone on their mobile phone is expensive because consumers have no
option but to pay the connection charge set by the operator of the network they
call.

'Oftel believes that measures are needed to require the mobile operators to
reduce their call termination charges, which should result in cheaper calls to
mobile phones.

'Oftel's proposals are in line with the Competition Commission's original
recommendations and consist of three annual cuts of around 15 per cent over the
next three years.

'In line with Oftel's earlier commitments, we do not to intend to place any
regulation on the 3G market. These are new and innovative services and
inappropriate regulation at this stage could damage the evolution of this new
market.'

The consultation period ends on 24 July 2003.

Oftel has also published today a consultation document on whether the current
requirement on O2 and Vodafone to negotiate an agreement with 3G new entrant
operator Hutchison 3G (3) to allow customers of 3 to roam over their 2G network
should continue. Under the new EC Directives all licences will be revoked which
means the current obligation on O2 and Vodafone to offer roaming will fall away.

Oftel believes that 3 will continue to need access to national roaming while it
is building its 3G network, so the obligation should therefore remain, and apply
to all four 2G mobile network operators.

stv - 15 May 2003 08:37 - 366 of 498

L2 status now for VOD & OOM? Did you offload your holding yesterday. Wish I had holding.
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