< "> edit this post http://www.investegate.co.uk/afren-plc-%28afr%29/rns/trading-statement-and-operations-update/201301210700069619
http://www.investegate.co.uk/afren-plc--afr-/rns/2012-full-year-results/201303250700107200A/

In an attempt to cut down the header page,i've transferred some of the older news to Page1 post No.3.

http://www.oil-price.net/index.php?lang=en
http://www.ft.com/home/uk

http://www.investegate.co.uk/Article.aspx?id=201111020700081674R
http://www.investegate.co.uk/Article.aspx?id=201111150700250723S
http://www.investegate.co.uk/Article.aspx?id=201112010705051251T
http://www.investegate.co.uk/Article.aspx?id=201201170700146472V
http://www.investegate.co.uk/Article.aspx?id=201201230701479690V
http://www.moneyam.com/action/news/showArticle?id=4323758
http://www.investegate.co.uk/Article.aspx?id=201204170700164488B
http://www.investegate.co.uk/Article.aspx?id=201205140700212304D
http://www.investegate.co.uk/Article.aspx?id=201205210700407032D
http://www.moneyam.com/action/news/showArticle?id=4430164
http://www.investegate.co.uk/afren-plc-%28afr%29/rns/significant-new-seychelles-3d-seismic-programme/201212120700052973T/
http://www.investegate.co.uk/afren-plc--afr-/rns/2013-half-yearly-results/201308230700063334M/
http://www.investegate.co.uk/afren-plc--afr-/rns/ogo-drilling-and-resources-update/201311190700083404T/
http://www.investegate.co.uk/afren-plc--afr-/rns/trading-statement-and-operations-update/201401280700096280Y/
http://www.investegate.co.uk/afren-plc--afr-/rns/interim-management-statement/201405200700135209H/
http://www.investegate.co.uk/afren-plc--afr-/rns/interim-management-statement/201410300700116483V/
http://www.moneyam.com/action/news/showArticle?id=4942625
http://www.moneyam.com/action/news/showArticle?id=4943375

This from the Sunday Times, which might account for some of today's rise:
"A CHINESE billionaire has made an audacious bid for Afren — but is likely to be pipped by a rival bid from the oil company's bondholders.

Fosun, the conglomerate that recently bought Club Med and is controlled by the tycoon Guo Guangchang, has backed a $500m (£325m) cash deal led by the Afren co-founder Bert Cooper. The China-Africa Development Fund has also put up money.

The offer would give the group majority control but would maintain Afren's stock market listing. It is likely to fail as Afren is controlled by it's lenders, who have hatched their own rescue plan."

you should read the whole!
bondholders are likely to block if it means they have to take the implied whopping loss

And Oriel note today:
"Based on our core NAV analysis and given company's large debt position, we estimate there is no equity value in the shares at sub $80/bbl oil price. Therefore we value the shares assuming a debt-for-equity swap in which the current shareholders would receive 5% of the restructured entity.

We see two scenarios going forward: 1) In light of the improving oil price, a third party injecting $65m of new equity, temporarily protecting the company from its creditors. We see this as a less likely scenario. 2) The company proceeds with a debt restructuring process. At this stage this appears as a more likely scenario.

In either of two scenarios we would expect a downward pressure on the share price. In the first scenario, we believe that it would be reasonable to expect that a potential new capital injection would only be done at a discount to the current share price. In the second scenario, if restructuring is indeed on the table, the shareholders would in that case be at the mercy of the bondholders. The current market cap represents c15% of the bond’s face value. We doubt in a restructuring process the bondholders would be sufficiently generous to give the shareholders much more than this."

it's typical analyst speak, for are they now putting a fair price of 9/10p on the stock, or considerably less?

Currently they think around 3p based on a $80 pb oil price.

am i being even more thick than usual, but how did you get to 3p - though i wouldn't disagree?

I didn't get 3p. They (Oriel) did.
This is how they calculated it:
"Value of assets at $80pb excl debts = $1413m
Value of assets at $60pb excl debts = $656m
Estimate of restructured Co would be worth (av of above) = $1035m
Afren's current shareholder potential share % = 5%
Afren's current shareholder potential share $ = $52m
F/X rate $/£ = 1.56
Afren's current shareholder potential share £ = £33m
Shares outstanding = 1108m
Value per share 3p"

thanks harry

Blown out the water cynic....... ;))

moi? .... why? .... i sure don't hold

Then why spend so much time here

because i choose to and it's a company which i have followed for a number of years .... and really and truly, what biz is it of yours?

Mr C, I think there are a great number of AFR investors out there who are sitting on stock at a much higher price, so potential losses are a bit of a sensitive issue.

hard cheese
i've made plenty of losses in my time, and i suspect i got walloped here a few months back

i post it as i see it and it happens that i think this company is near enough doomed, and not without reason
many others think (i say kid themselves) that i'm completely wrong and that AFR will make a strong recovery

probably a few weeks at most will determine who is right

you asked harry to explain 3p which he did....... very confidently...... to your surprise lol.,.

no not all ... i genuinely wanted to know

1-0 I think ;))

know nothing, but i like to ask he said

from today's rns: 'the issue of new equity which will substantially dilute the interests of the Company's current shareholders.'

Further Update on the Review of Afren's Capital Structure

Afren plc ("Afren" or the "Company") provides an update regarding the review of its capital structure, liquidity and funding requirements.

In light of the Company's current liquidity position and in order to preserve cash while the review of the Company's capital structure and funding alternatives is completed, the Board has decided, at the expiration of the 30 day grace period, not to pay US$15m of interest which was due on 1 February 2015 under its 2016 Notes. While such non-payment will result in a default under the 2016 Notes, this will not result in an immediate obligation to repay such 2016 Notes or any cross-default under its 2019 Notes or 2020 Notes or its other debt facilities.

The Company has received assurances from the ad hoc committee (which members hold in aggregate approximately 55% of the principal face amount of the 2016 Notes and 44% of the total principal face amount of the 2016 Notes, 2019 Notes and 2020 Notes) that the committee has no current intention to take enforcement action with respect to the 2016 Notes held by its members as a result of the failure to make payment of interest due under the 2016 Notes, in the hope and expectation that agreement can shortly be reached with the Company and its key stakeholders on the terms of a consensual restructuring that would preserve the Group and its business as a going concern for the benefit of all stakeholders.

The Company is continuing constructive discussions with the advisers to, and members of, the ad hoc committee of its largest bond holders, the coordinating committee of the lenders under its US$300m Ebok debt facility and its other lenders regarding the immediate liquidity and funding needs of the business. It is expected that any agreement with the Company's bond holders and debt providers regarding the provision of interim and longer term funding and a broader consensual restructuring is likely to result in economic terms associated with the new funding and/or the issue of new equity which will substantially dilute the interests of the Company's current shareholders.

While the Company is also having discussions with its other stakeholders and third party investors regarding interim funding and recapitalising the Company, the Board believes that an agreement between the Company's creditors presents the most likely solution to the immediate issues facing the business. There can be no certainty that an agreement will be reached.

Further announcements will be made in due course.

The contents of this announcement will be available at www.afren.com. The content of the aforementioned website is not incorporated into and does not form part of this announcement.