This sums up much of my thinking - I hold a few and swing trade a few and even trade intraday sometimes ......

I think there is a lot of slack that management can cut out of the costs and would also anticipate sector consolidation ..... good value currently and have been holding their own in a falling market. Lot of US interest.

ains


Edited by Dominic White
(Filed: 08/02/2003)


Texting makes MmO2 sexy but it's also risky

More and more Britons are discovering the joys of textual intercourse. In the month of December, we fired off more than 50m mobile messages a day, and next Friday (that's Valentine's Day, folks, in case you'd forgotten) we'll send considerably more than that.



It emerged this week that the chief beneficiary of this craze is MmO2 . BT's former mobile phone division revealed that it gets a higher proportion of revenues from texting than any of the other three operators.

Revenue from messaging grew at its fastest rate ever in the last quarter, up 19pc, and data services as a proportion of MmO2 's revenue rose to 17.7pc from 15.6pc.

More good news was the rise in MmO2 's average revenues per customer. ARPUs, as nerdy analysts like to dub them, grew by 5pc to 243 in the UK and by 9pc in Germany to 212.

MmO2 now has 19.1m subscribers and in Britain it may be the smallest player, with 11.9m users, but it is growing faster than its rivals - testament to the success of its rebranding from BT Cellnet.

Only 114,000 of its 503,000 new UK subscribers were higher-spending contract customers, but MmO2 claims its pre-pay customers have started spending more than before.

Customer growth in Germany, which continues to be dominated by T-Mobile and Vodafone, is less impressive and the MmO2 share price ascribes little or no value to this part of the business.

That seems unfair, given the fact that the group has attracted higher-spending customers and has made a decent fist of turning the operation around. An eventual sale or merger is almost as inevitable as a disposal of the Dutch unit, which is losing customers.

MmO2 's larger rival Vodafone is trading on a free cashflow yield of 6pc, while at 49p this week, MmO2 's equivalent valuation remains negative. It might not have Vodafone's scale or profitability but there is room for upside. A risky buy.

KPN denies mmO2 merger gossip
12 May 2003, Evening Standard

UTCH phone group Royal KPN poured cold water on rumours that it is in merger talks with mobile group mmO2's German arm.

Chief executive Ad Scheepbouwer, reporting the group's third consecutive quarter of improved profit, said: 'We are not talking to mmO2, though there is a price for everything. My door is always open.'

Ains, please provide L2 for VOD & OOM. Appears to be suffering after KPN comments.

Buy orders Sell orders
Num(%) Num Vol(%) Vol VWAP Vol Vol(%) Num Num(%)
1% (54.29%) 19 (40.83%) 1,148,702 54.73 - 55.48 1,665,019 (59.17%) 16 (45.71%)
5% (53.49%) 23 (48.34%) 1,716,633 54.49 - 55.53 1,834,585 (51.66%) 20 (46.51%)
10% (56.72%) 38 (49.24%) 2,096,402 54.26 - 55.72 2,161,530 (50.76%) 29 (43.28%)
15% (56.10%) 46 (51.38%) 3,302,951 52.95 - 57.11 3,126,009 (48.62%) 36 (43.90%)
50% (55.42%) 46 (51.26%) 3,302,951 52.95 - 57.13 3,141,009 (48.74%) 37 (44.58%)
100% (55.68%) 49 (51.01%) 3,323,071 52.84 - 57.25 3,191,701 (48.99%) 39 (44.32%)
all (55.06%) 49 (50.98%) 3,323,071 52.84 - 57.37 3,195,701 (49.02%) 40 (44.94%)




Buy orders Sell orders
Num(%) Num Vol(%) Vol VWAP Vol Vol(%) Num Num(%)
1% (44.30%) 35 (32.82%) 5,237,523 121.28 - 122.64 10,722,038 (67.18%) 44 (55.70%)
5% (56.20%) 68 (47.49%) 11,476,713 120.68 - 122.80 12,689,828 (52.51%) 53 (43.80%)
10% (53.23%) 107 (43.55%) 17,758,020 119.62 - 124.08 23,016,366 (56.45%) 94 (46.77%)
15% (54.98%) 160 (46.08%) 23,510,400 118.30 - 125.18 27,511,424 (53.92%) 131 (45.02%)
50% (56.47%) 205 (46.00%) 25,076,972 117.52 - 125.96 29,437,136 (54.00%) 158 (43.53%)
100% (55.00%) 220 (46.04%) 25,313,482 117.30 - 126.21 29,671,894 (53.96%) 180 (45.00%)
all (54.19%) 220 (46.01%) 25,313,482 117.30 - 126.39 29,707,040 (53.99%) 186 (45.81%)

Ains, please provide updated L2 for VOD & OOM. Seem to be holding despite -ve US.

sector is up 1%




Buy orders Sell orders
Num(%) Num Vol(%) Vol VWAP Vol Vol(%) Num Num(%)
1% (55.24%) 58 (49.00%) 9,624,810 121.47 - 122.76 10,017,362 (51.00%) 47 (44.76%)
5% (62.84%) 93 (56.00%) 16,176,070 120.98 - 123.06 12,711,562 (44.00%) 55 (37.16%)
10% (59.39%) 136 (50.89%) 22,525,376 120.12 - 124.21 21,735,500 (49.11%) 93 (40.61%)
15% (59.63%) 192 (52.22%) 28,668,808 118.87 - 125.34 26,230,560 (47.78%) 130 (40.37%)
50% (60.15%) 237 (51.78%) 30,235,380 118.20 - 126.14 28,156,272 (48.22%) 157 (39.85%)
100% (58.33%) 252 (51.76%) 30,471,888 118.01 - 126.41 28,396,760 (48.24%) 180 (41.67%)
all (57.50%) 253 (51.73%) 30,471,890 118.01 - 126.59 28,431,908 (48.27%) 187 (42.50%


Buy orders Sell orders
Num(%) Num Vol(%) Vol VWAP Vol Vol(%) Num Num(%)
1% (39.29%) 11 (41.89%) 1,177,089 54.95 - 55.58 1,632,695 (58.11%) 17 (60.71%)
5% (40.54%) 15 (50.53%) 1,954,567 54.77 - 55.71 1,913,843 (49.47%) 22 (59.46%)
10% (48.28%) 28 (58.56%) 2,885,836 54.46 - 55.82 2,042,143 (41.44%) 30 (51.72%)
15% (50.68%) 37 (57.89%) 4,111,085 53.34 - 57.23 2,990,322 (42.11%) 36 (49.32%)
50% (50.00%) 37 (57.77%) 4,111,085 53.34 - 57.25 3,005,322 (42.23%) 37 (50.00%)
100% (50.63%) 40 (57.48%) 4,131,205 53.25 - 57.38 3,056,014 (42.52%) 39 (49.37%)
all (50.00%) 40 (57.45%) 4,131,205 53.25 - 57.50 3,060,014 (42.55%) 40 (50.00%)

Seems to have done a little more for emblaze (hold a few as speculative longer term recovery play)this morning than oom but is good news



Emblaze Systems and O2 Launch Pilot for Mobile Video in the UK

Ra'anana, Israel, May 14, 2003 - Emblaze Systems Ltd (LSE: BLZ), announces the
launch of a trial for mobile video with O2, a leading provider of mobile
services to consumers and businesses in the UK. Emblaze is providing a turnkey
solution, incorporating video streaming & download, managed services, production
and publishing of content and a wide variety of end user services.

O2 has selected 350 customers to participate in a free, six-week trial, using
the O2 xda, Nokia 7650 and Nokia 3650 mobile devices. The trial focuses on three
principal areas: Streaming video, downloading clips and video messaging. Using
the Emblaze EMplatform(TM), O2 will offer a continuously updated range of services
from news, weather and entertainment, through music & movie trailers. O2 is also
leveraging its sponsorship of Arsenal football club and the England rugby team.

O2 is using its GPRS network to enable trial participants to browse, select and
download video clips via a special WAP portal set up by Emblaze. Further,
Emblaze offers an innovative feature - enabling trial users to easily download
the EMplayer(TM) directly from the portal.

Emblaze has delivered a complete end-to-end service, including technology,
service management, and hosting, together with its partner, Virtue Broadcasting
PLC - a major provider of streaming media services; thus creating a wireless
application service provider (WASP) solution.

Emblaze provides a customized, media centric, end-to-end solution for wireless
multimedia, enabling wireless operators to create, manage and deliver rich media
services and offer a personalized communications experience to their wireless
subscribers. On demand news, weather and sports services as well as messaging
and online audio/video capabilities enable wireless service providers to
generate new forms of revenue from their subscriber base. The Emblaze solution
runs on all networks, including GSM/GPRS, EDGE, UMTS, CDMA, 1X, and EVDO. It is
also compatible with all leading formats, such as MPEG4, Windows Media.

Eli Reifman, CEO of Emblaze Systems Ltd, said: " We are focused on helping O2
achieve its goals, namely to maximize revenues from existing 2.5G networks and
to extend the range of services currently offered. The successful introduction
of new rich media services is dependant on the quality of the user experience:
Emblaze ensures the best user experience to the widest number of people - on any
network and any rich-media wireless device."

Dave McGlade, CEO O2 UK said: "Mobile Video is a natural addition to the range
of services we already offer like Media Messaging and the O2 Games Arcade and
fully exploits the technology we have available today. We want to develop a
range of communications and entertainment services that our customers really
want and trials like this give us the opportunity to listen to our customers and
get crucial feedback."

"A partnership with Emblaze extends our strong position out of the IP video/
audio streaming arena into the mobile space and enables Virtue to deliver new
streaming services to our clients" said Giles English, Director Virtue
Broadcasting. "If the trial proves successful we will be rolling the services
out to our whole client base."

Price is picking up now and sector is positive - vols already nearly 50% up on yesterday


Sanford Bernstein has raised its rating for mmO2 (OOM) from neutral to outperform raising its target price to 85p.

What's L2 showing and where is this going to over the next few days do you think.

thats a difficult one .... market is very choppy .... someone was just saying on CNBC that finanial web site chat rooms in US are reporting big increases in number of posts and peeps returning to the market. I am fully invested at this time ....



Buy orders Sell orders
Num(%) Num Vol(%) Vol VWAP Vol Vol(%) Num Num(%)
1% (46.15%) 12 (82.91%) 4,492,911 56.05 - 56.84 926,117 (17.09%) 14 (53.85%)
5% (52.50%) 21 (81.93%) 6,139,475 55.89 - 57.02 1,353,854 (18.07%) 19 (47.50%)
10% (60.66%) 37 (85.61%) 8,617,920 55.49 - 57.09 1,448,050 (14.39%) 24 (39.34%)
15% (62.65%) 52 (80.85%) 10,314,114 54.88 - 58.48 2,443,188 (19.15%) 31 (37.35%)
50% (63.53%) 54 (81.15%) 10,519,114 54.79 - 58.48 2,443,188 (18.85%) 31 (36.47%)
100% (63.33%) 57 (80.87%) 10,539,234 54.75 - 58.61 2,493,880 (19.13%) 33 (36.67%)
all (62.64%) 57 (80.84%) 10,539,234 54.75 - 58.76 2,497,880 (19.16%) 34 (37.36%

LONDON (AFX) - Mobile phones group mm02 PLC is close to clinching more than 1 bln stg worth of contracts for its Airwave radio system, according to The Business.
The newspaper did not name its source, but said the company's is the City's favourite to win the fire and ambulance contracts currently under tender.

The ambulance contract is due to be awarded later this year with the fire service deal due in 2004.

LONDON (AFX) - Shares in Emblaze Systems moved up 4-1/2 to 105 - a near 45 pct gain - after the company said it is to launch a trial for mobile video with mmO2's subsidiary O2.
Using the Emblaze EMplatform, O2 will offer a continuously updated range of services from news, weather and entertainment to music and movie trailers

L2 status now? So much for you thiking this is'nt taking off +5%. You lucky man.

:-)




Buy orders Sell orders
Num(%) Num Vol(%) Vol VWAP Vol Vol(%) Num Num(%)
1% (41.38%) 12 (55.61%) 1,372,843 57.09 - 57.94 1,096,053 (44.39%) 17 (58.62%)
5% (47.62%) 20 (70.78%) 3,861,651 56.75 - 58.12 1,593,837 (29.22%) 22 (52.38%)
10% (52.78%) 38 (77.40%) 9,975,543 56.15 - 59.03 2,913,446 (22.60%) 34 (47.22%)
15% (62.77%) 59 (80.29%) 11,929,029 55.75 - 59.05 2,928,446 (19.71%) 35 (37.23%)
50% (63.73%) 65 (81.51%) 13,130,037 55.30 - 59.15 2,979,138 (18.49%) 37 (36.27%)
100% (64.76%) 68 (81.53%) 13,150,157 55.27 - 59.15 2,979,138 (18.47%) 37 (35.24%)
all (64.15%) 68 (81.51%) 13,150,157 55.27 - 59.27 2,983,138 (18.49%) 38 (35.85%

I note oftel are looking into mobile charges again but say they will not be interfering in G3 charging

This looks like potential good news


May 15, 2003

Mobile operators may claim 4bn refund
By Dan Sabbagh TIMES



BRITAINs five mobile phone operators are considering launching a claim for a 4 billion refund of VAT. The Times has learnt that the companies believe the 22.5 billion they paid in the third-generation licence auction three years ago included VAT.
A claim, if launched, would be fiercely resisted by the Treasury, which used the windfall proceeds to make record debt repayments during 2000.

The Government says the sale of licences was VATexempt, a position that is now being challenged. If the operators could prove that VAT was part of the purchase price, then they could apply for a VAT refund worth 17.5 per cent of the total, or 3.9 billion, from Customs and Excise.

Most businesses do not pay VAT, although sometimes a company has to reclaim the sales tax back from the authorities when it has been forced to pay up on a purchase.

The search for a legal basis to challenge the Government remains at its early stages, but The Times has learnt that all Britains operators Vodafone, Orange, mmO2, Deutsche Telekoms T-Mobile and Hutchison Whampoas 3 have examined the issue carefully. None is yet ready to discuss the subject in public. But privately, one operator said: Our shareholders would expect us to look at this seriously, given the sums involved.

The background to any British claim comes from Germany, where third-generation licences were sold for 30.5 billion in 2000. VAT is harmonised across the European Union, and a ruling in Germany would have clear implications for the UK.

The Dutch group KPN said earlier this week that it was orchestrating a campaign of the countrys big four operators, which include Vodafone, and mmO2, to pursue a VAT refund which would be worth 5 billion. The Times has learnt KPN is demanding a VAT invoice from the German Government, which has refused to comply.

A spokesman for KPN said: There is no consensus amongst tax experts as to whether VAT was applicable on the licences. There are discussions ongoing in Germany, and legal action is always possible if the tax authorities are not willing to comply.

British tax experts believe that a claim for a refund would be optimistic but not impossible. Paddy Behan, a VAT specialist with the accountants Grant Thornton, said: Because of the amounts involved, it is very likely that the companies will press on.

The EUs Sixth VAT Directive, which governs the taxs basic principles, says VAT should not generally apply to public authorities. However, it also says that if a public authority engages in one of a list of specified activities, including telecoms, then VAT must be levied. Mr Behan said: The rules seem to be designed for when telecoms services are provided by state-owned providers, but the companies in these cases may try to argue that the licensing round was a telecommunications activity. If this were accepted they would get the result they want but it is a difficult argument to make.

A spokeswoman for Customs and Excise said: We are monitoring what is happening in Germany. But we will defend any attack on legitimate government revenues; in our view no VAT is due on regulated activities.

A sudden need to find 4 billion from the Treasurys coffers this year would be a headache for Gordon Brown. The demand would come at a time when the public finances are badly stretched by weakening tax revenues and extra public spending.

15 May 2003

Oftel publishes mobile call termination market review

Measures to promote competition and reduce the price of calling a mobile phone
have been proposed today by Oftel.

Action is necessary because consumers pay too much for making calls to mobile
phones as they have no choice but to incur the high connection charge set by the
operator of the network they are calling.

Oftel is reviewing the calls to mobile phones market as part of its work to
implement the new EC Directives on electronic communications networks by 25 July

This is a separate review from the recent Competition Commission investigation
into call termination rates, which was carried out under the current telecoms
regulatory framework. The Commission made recommendations for charge controls
over the next three years, but the introduction of the new Directives means
Oftel is required to carry out a fresh review under the terms and procedures of
the Directives, before reaching its own conclusions.

The key proposals set out Oftel's review of the calls to mobile phones market
are to:

protect consumers from excessive call termination charges through a
continuation of controls to reduce the amount mobile operators charge to
connect calls to their networks;

promote competition between operators by ensuring equal access and no
undue discrimination against other operators for terminating calls onto the
mobile networks; and

not impose regulation on the 3G market as these are new and innovative
services and regulatory controls would be disproportionate while the market
is developing.

David Edmonds, Director General of Telecommunications said today:

'Calls to mobile phones is a separate market from the mobile retail market and
has no effective competition, because consumers cannot choose between
terminating networks when they make a call to a mobile phone.

'Calling someone on their mobile phone is expensive because consumers have no
option but to pay the connection charge set by the operator of the network they
call.

'Oftel believes that measures are needed to require the mobile operators to
reduce their call termination charges, which should result in cheaper calls to
mobile phones.

'Oftel's proposals are in line with the Competition Commission's original
recommendations and consist of three annual cuts of around 15 per cent over the
next three years.

'In line with Oftel's earlier commitments, we do not to intend to place any
regulation on the 3G market. These are new and innovative services and
inappropriate regulation at this stage could damage the evolution of this new
market.'

The consultation period ends on 24 July 2003.

Oftel has also published today a consultation document on whether the current
requirement on O2 and Vodafone to negotiate an agreement with 3G new entrant
operator Hutchison 3G (3) to allow customers of 3 to roam over their 2G network
should continue. Under the new EC Directives all licences will be revoked which
means the current obligation on O2 and Vodafone to offer roaming will fall away.

Oftel believes that 3 will continue to need access to national roaming while it
is building its 3G network, so the obligation should therefore remain, and apply
to all four 2G mobile network operators.

L2 status now for VOD & OOM? Did you offload your holding yesterday. Wish I had holding.

I am still holding for now - should be a + day



Buy orders Sell orders
Num(%) Num Vol(%) Vol VWAP Vol Vol(%) Num Num(%)
1% (46.15%) 6 (68.21%) 964,960 56.16 - 57.02 449,686 (31.79%) 7 (53.85%)
5% (41.18%) 7 (66.54%) 1,146,798 56.06 - 57.24 576,686 (33.46%) 10 (58.82%)
10% (48.65%) 18 (68.67%) 1,895,987 55.47 - 57.82 865,086 (31.33%) 19 (51.35%)
15% (42.55%) 20 (50.65%) 1,935,411 55.41 - 59.15 1,885,359 (49.35%) 27 (57.45%)
50% (45.28%) 24 (61.62%) 3,107,854 53.60 - 59.30 1,936,051 (38.38%) 29 (54.72%)
100% (49.12%) 28 (61.81%) 3,132,874 53.48 - 59.30 1,936,051 (38.19%) 29 (50.88%)
all (48.28%) 28 (61.76%) 3,132,874 53.48 - 59.49 1,940,051 (38.24%) 30 (51.72%




Buy orders Sell orders
Num(%) Num Vol(%) Vol VWAP Vol Vol(%) Num Num(%)
1% (40.35%) 23 (40.73%) 4,438,276 121.77 - 123.06 6,459,042 (59.27%) 34 (59.65%)
5% (48.84%) 42 (41.45%) 7,518,022 121.20 - 123.49 10,619,442 (58.55%) 44 (51.16%)
10% (45.45%) 70 (42.51%) 11,548,260 119.96 - 124.61 15,620,231 (57.49%) 84 (54.55%)
15% (47.70%) 114 (45.05%) 16,989,956 118.28 - 126.27 20,727,624 (54.95%) 125 (52.30%)
50% (51.89%) 165 (45.68%) 18,635,030 117.21 - 127.03 22,160,636 (54.32%) 153 (48.11%)
100% (50.28%) 179 (45.72%) 18,871,528 116.91 - 127.36 22,404,624 (54.28%) 177 (49.72%)
all (49.31%) 179 (45.68%) 18,871,528 116.91 - 127.62 22,439,820 (54.32%) 184 (50.69%

Emblaze to power O2 video trials

London, May 14 2003, (netimperative)



by Susie Harwood

Wireless streaming developer Emblaze announced that it has been selected to provide technology and services to UK mobile operator O2 for its mobile video trial taking place this month.


O2 announced last month that it had chosen 350 customers to take part in a six-week mobile video trial using the O2 xda, Nokia 7650 and Nokia 3650 devices over its GPRS network, ahead of a planned commercial launch later this year. The trial focuses on three principal areas: streaming video, downloading clips and video messaging.

Emblaze said that O2 will use its EMplatform to offer customers a continuously updated range of services including news, weather, entertainment, music and movie trailers.

The company has set up a special WAP portal for O2, where trial customers can browse, select and download video clips. Trial customers will also be able to download EMplayer directly from the portal to their mobile phone.

Ericsson, UK's mmO2 Sign Europe-wide Frame Agreement
EDITED PRESS RELEASE
STOCKHOLM (Dow Jones)--Swedish telecommunications equipment maker Telfon AB LM Ericsson (ERICY) said Thursday it has signed a Europe-wide frame agreement with the U.K.'s mmO2 Plc (U.OOM) over the supply of its MINI-LINK microwave system..
No financial details were disclosed. The agreement covers all subsidiaries within the mmO2 group.
This agreement is a pan-European pricing framework and is the common base for all subsidiaries within the mmO2 group - i.e. O2 Germany, O2 United Kingdom, O2 Ireland, Manx Telecom (Isle of Man) and O2 Airwave (UK) - to enter local agreements and place orders.
"This agreement reduces the efforts for the local companies to negotiate everything from scratch. By this we increase efficiency in line with the mmO2 motto 'Do it once"', says Karl-Wilhelm Rohrsen, Chief Technical Officer of O2 Germany.
"For Ericsson this agreement once again shows that we are regarded as a reliable partner with an international presence and first class products. It is a further step in strengthening our business relationship with mmO2," says Sivert Bergman, Vice President & General Manager Transport and Transmission.
Ericsson's MINI-LINK portfolio is a microwave access solution.
Over half a million MINI-LINK radios have already been deployed in more than 125 countries, giving Ericsson a global market share of over 40% percent. MINI-LINK cost-efficiently connects base stations, switch nodes and offices, forming either single radio connections or complete microwave networks. Instant capacity needs in any geographical site is the main driver for microwave transmission both in 2G and 3G rollouts. The latest additions for the MINI-LINK portfolio are high capacity radios handling 155 Mbit/s and cost-efficient traffic nodes. MINI-LINK products are based on open standards, making them fully compatible with networks from all suppliers.

well outperforming the market this morning .... sector up 0.41%